21Votes

09/28/2021

So, it was a big weekend for elections. Here are the highlights:

Germany: Merkel's CDU had its worst result in a long time, and the Social Democrats (SPD) won first place. Still unclear who will succeed Merkel, but the two most likely scenarios are either a "Jamaica coalition" (conservative CDU/CSU, pro-business FDP, and Greens), or a "traffic light coalition" (SPD, FDP and the Greens). CDU leader Armin Laschet's personal unpopularity gives the edge to a traffic light, but it's unclear whether FDP would want an SPD-led government, or how the negotiations between parties play out. It could be months before we know the next chancellor, or it could happen quickly. Uncertainty rules the day.

Meanwhile, Berlin will have its first female mayor. SPD retained its status as the biggest party in both state elections that coincided with the Bundestag polls (Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern).

Iceland: Looks like the incumbent big tent coalition will remain in power following Saturday's parliamentary elections. For a few hours, the world thought Iceland had elected a majority-female parliament, but that turned out not to be the case. Still, close to gender parity.

Portugal: The governing Socialists won Sunday's local elections overall, but lost Lisbon for the first time in 14 years.

Austria: Upper Austria held elections for its state parliament. Chancellor Sebastian Kurz's ÖVP remained the biggest party, but a new anti-lockdown party called People Freedom Fundamental Rights (MFG) won 6.2 percent of the vote, enough to secure seats. MFG plans to contest other upcoming Austrian elections.

Bonus: Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang held a leadership contest ahead of next year's local elections and after a shellacking in last year's presidential election. Former leader Eric Chu defeated incumbent Johnny Chiang and pro-reunification Chang Ya-chung. Chu and Chiang have some differences on cross-strait relations: Chiang (whose family are indigenous Taiwanese) emphasized democracy and human rights during his brief tenure as party leader. Chu, who represents the older generation, is a bit warmer toward Beijing, while still retaining a Taiwan-centric view.

This is a risky choice for the KMT. Their recent electoral defeats centered around the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) successfully convincing people that a vote for the KMT was a vote for Beijing.

Photo credit: Flickr/Arno Mikkor (CC BY 2.0)

08/18/2021

Key Africa elections news this week:

Zambia: Opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema wins the presidency in a landslide, a "shot in the arm" for democracy.

Somaliland: A good update from International Crisis Group about building on the successful May 31 elections, plus a piece on how Somaliland is standing up to China.

Plus updates on Angola, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Chad, Eswatini, Somalia, and South Africa.
https://21votes.com/africa-67/

08/16/2021

Key Americas elections news, in review:

- Argentina's looming midterms will be a key test for the Peronists, who currently hold the presidency.

- Canada calls snap elections for September 20.

- Haiti earthquake tragedy could further delay elections, currently set for November 7.

- Nicaragua crackdown continues as prominent opposition newspaper raided.

- Venezuela government and opposition hold talks ahead of November elections

And more.

https://21votes.com/americas-63/

Argentina's midterms loom. Haiti earthquake tragedy could further delay elections.

08/14/2021

ICYMI Eurasia elections news weekly review:

Putin's United Russia loses popularity ahead of elections as crackdown on dissent continues.

Plus updates on Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Uzbekistan.

https://21votes.com/eurasia-63/

Eurasia Elections Weekly News Review: August 12, 2021 - Putin's United Russia loses popularity ahead of elections. And more.

08/13/2021

Weekly Europe election news review:

Estonia gears up for indirect presidential election that could become contentious.

And a few more weeks of quiet before the busy Fall 2021 and Spring 2022 election seasons kick off.

https://21votes.com/europe-64/

08/11/2021

Middle East election news weekly review:

Iran's new hardline president, who won a rigged election in June, sworn into office, complicating the geopolitics of the region.

Tunisia's democracy comes to a crossroads.

Could next year's elections help pull Lebanon back from disaster?

And more. https://21votes.com/middle-east-62/

Iran's new hardline president sworn in. Tunisia's democracy at a crossroads. And more.

08/11/2021

ICYMI: Key election news this week, in review:

The major story is Zambia, which holds crucial elections on August 12 after a hotly-contested campaign, and marred by violence and lack of a level playing field.

Plus lots more.


https://21votes.com/africa-66/

Crucial elections in Zambia marred by violence and lack of level playing field. And more.

07/05/2021

ICYMI - our July 2021 election outlook. We're especially watching snap parliamentary elections in Moldova and Bulgaria - both have geopolitical implications. Also, local elections in Tokyo and Lagos come ahead of national elections in Japan and Nigeria. https://21votes.com/july-2021-election-outlook/

An overview of key July 2021 elections around the world, plus a map. Summaries of what is at stake, plus political context.

06/07/2021

It was a busy weekend for elections, with Peru and Mexico holding key votes, as well as local elections in Latvia, provincial elections in Argentina's Misiones Province, and state elections in Germany's Saxony-Anhalt.

Still waiting on final results in Mexico and Peru, but here are a few thoughts on Germany, off the cuff:

This year is a "Superwahljahr" in Germany, with lots of state elections plus crucial Bundestag elections that will decide who succeeds Merkel. Saxony-Anhalt, in the east, was the last state contest before the Bundestag vote, and pre-election polls were WAY off - they'd had far-right AfD at 26 percent, with Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) at 25 - 27 percent (i.e. AfD had been in the lead in some polls). In the actual election, CDU got close to 37 percent and AfD 21 percent (down from 24 percent in 2016). Although CDU has been the biggest party in Saxony-Anhalt for a long time, AfD is popular in the east for a variety of reasons. Nonetheless, it has never been part of any government in Germany, and never been the biggest party in any state parliament. Winning first would have been a major coup, but it didn't happen.

This was a great result for CDU. They're up 7 points from 2016 (in the Saxony-Anhalt elections). It was also a good day for pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), set to re-enter the state parliament after failing to make the 5 percent threshold in 2016 and 2011.

CDU's good result is not actually surprising: one pre-election poll found that 68 percent of voters want state premier Reiner Haseloff from CDU to remain in office. So even if some voters wanted to make an emotional statement of support for AfD before the election (for whatever reason - probably because people are tired of lockdowns and AfD campaigned hardcore against them), it would make sense to actually vote CDU on election day.

Conversely, it was a terrible result for the Social Democrats (SPD), one of their worst ever with 8.2 percent. The far-left Linke also tanked, losing 5 points from 2016. The Greens gained ~1 percent from 2016, which doesn't seem like that much given that they're the flavor of the month right now. But the east is gonna east.

No more voting until September, but this "Superwahljahr" promises to continue to be eventful.

06/01/2021

ICYMI: Key election news for the week:

Somaliland holds local and parliamentary elections.

Ethiopia slapped with U.S. sanctions ahead of polls.

Somalia parties agree to hold indirect elections within 60 days, possibly ending impasse.

And more.

https://21votes.com/africa-57/

05/17/2021

ICYMI Our roundup of key Americas election news this week:

Chile heads to the polls to elect delegates who will draft the new constitution - a high stakes vote - alongside local elections. (UPDATE: Independents won nearly 40 percent of seats - a rejection of Chile's political class).

Polls tightening in Peru runoff as right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori catches up to leftist Pedro Castillo.

Venezuela sets a date for regional elections.

Mexico violence continues ahead of June 6 midterms - AMLO continues to undermine democracy.

Plus updates on Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
https://21votes.com/americas-51/

Mexico gears up for midterms amid violence. Neither Peru presidential finalist is great. Venezuela sets date for gubernatorial elections. And more.

05/16/2021

ICYMI Key Asia/Pacific election news this week:

Samoa's election saga continues.

Vietnam holds parliamentary elections with no real choices for voters.

Hong Kong democrats doing soul-searching to decide whether to participate in LegCo elections.

South Korea presidential campaign kicks off - election is in March 2022.

Plus updates on Australia, Burma, Cambodia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Nepal, and Philippines.

https://21votes.com/asia-50/

Election controversy in Samoa. Vietnam to hold elections without real choice. And more.

05/11/2021

Key Middle East election news for the week:

- Israel explodes into violence, stalling "change bloc" coalition talks between centrist Yair Lapid and right-winger Naftali Bennett.

The coalition needs the four seats held by the Islamist United Arab List (Ra'am) party, but Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has suspended talks until the fighting stops. If the coalition does somehow work, it would be the first time that an Arab party joined an Israeli governing coalition.

- Meanwhile, Hamas is pursuing politics by other means (i.e. rockets) following the delay of Palestinian elections.

- Algeria targets Hirak protesters ahead of June 12 elections. The Hirak, who are mostly secular, are boycotting the polls, which means the Islamists are the main opposition force, and likely to win.

- Iran's internal power struggle continues ahead of the June 18 presidential election.

Plus updates on Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Lebanon. https://21votes.com/middle-east-50/

Israel violence explodes, stalling "change bloc" coalition negotiations.

05/10/2021

Our election news roundup for the week:

- Somaliland celebrates 30 years of de facto independence as it gears up for elections on May 31. While Somaliland's independence isn't widely recognized, the country has managed to build a democracy (not a perfect one yet, but pretty good by the standards of the region).

- Ethiopia polls currently set for June 5 could be delayed amid multiple crises.

- Guinea will put 60 people (mostly opposition) on trial for protests surrounding last year's presidential election, in which Alpha Condé was elected to a controversial third term with heavy backing from Russia, which is heavily invested in mining in Guinea. Guinea's mines are the world's biggest provider of bauxite, a key ingredient in aluminum.

Plus updates on Benin, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Kenya, Mali, Mauritius, Nigeria, Senegal, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, and Zambia.

https://21votes.com/africa-54/

Somaliland celebrates 30 years of de facto independence and gears up for elections. Ethiopia elections could be delayed amid crises. And more.

05/05/2021

We're already neck-deep into the May election cycle (Madrid re-elected its conservative regional government yesterday, and tomorrow is a very big day for the UK), but here's a review of all of the MANY elections that happened in April.

In The Waste Land, T.S. Eliot declares: "April is the cruelest month." He proceeds to describe ambiguity, uncertainty, and the juxtaposition of hope and despair. That kind of sums up the global electoral landscape in April. Some high points - pro-democracy and pro-freedom forces made gains in some places, but also some backsliding.

Anyway, there were elections of various types in (hold on to your hats, kids): Albania, Bangladesh, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Cabo Verde, Canada, Cayman Islands, Chad, Djibouti, Ecuador, Greenland, India, Kyrgyzstan, Maldives, Peru, Samoa, South Korea, and the Tibetan exile community.

https://21votes.com/april-2021-election-outlook/

Our recap of all of the elections around the world that happened in April 2021 (there were a lot).

05/01/2021

Here's our May 2021 Election Outlook - all of the elections we're watching in May, from Madrid to the UK to Somaliland, and a lot more as well. https://21votes.com/may-2021-election-outlook/

May 1, 2021 Australia, Tasmania Snap Elections Several Australian states hold elections in 2021, including Tasmania, which is holding its state elections 10 months early. If the incumbent center-right Liberals win, it will be the first time they... Read More

04/10/2021

Catch up Asia and the Pacific election news this week:

Samoa elections get interesting.

Maldives, Bangladesh, and Tibet exiles vote this weekend.

South Korea conservative opposition wins Seoul & Busan elections a year ahead of presidential election.

for democracy in Asia gets its own emoji.

And more. https://21votes.com/asia-46/

04/09/2021

Your cheat-sheet for Eurasia election news for the week:

Kyrgyzstan gears up for Sunday's local elections and referendum on "Khanstitution."

Putin's United Russia down in the polls as Russia moves military gear and personnel toward border - coincidence?

Uzbekistan opposition will try to field a presidential candidate in October's election.

Georgia political crisis continues - nearly half of the country wants new elections.

And more. https://21votes.com/eurasia-47/

Kyrgyzstan gears up for local elections and referendum on "Khanstitution." Putin's United Russia down in the polls ahead of military buildup on Ukraine's border. ANd more.

04/09/2021

Tibetan prayer flags in Leh, India in 2006, frayed but flying.

Although China rules Tibet, Tibetans in exile have been building a democracy in the hope of one day returning home. On Sunday, 80,000 will vote in a presidential runoff.

Photo: Wotan (CC BY-SA 3.0)

04/08/2021

Catch up on key Europe election news this week:

Albania tense in the lead-up to elections.

China finds it can’t buy Greenland as anti-mine party wins snap elections.

Anti-corruption parties get surprisingly strong result in Bulgaria.

Netherlands PM Rutte in a rut as he tries to form a government.

And more. https://21votes.com/europe-48/

Albania gears up for elections this month. Anti-mining party wins Greenland snap elections. PMs of Bulgaria and the Netherlands struggle to form governments after elections. And more.

04/08/2021

Catch up on Middle East elections news for the week:

In Israel, the ball is in Bibi's court to form a government - if he can.

Strong interest in Palestinian Authority elections - 36 candidate lists registered.

Algeria gears up for snap legislative elections, but they may not satisfy the demands of the pro-democracy Hirak protesters.

Plus updates on Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, and Pakistan. https://21votes.com/middle-east-46/

Thirty-six candidate slates will run in Palestinian elections. Algeria gears up for elections. Netanyahu invited to form Israeli government - if he can. And more.

04/08/2021

Catch up on Africa elections news and analysis from the past week. Djibouti, Benin, and Chad are about to head to the polls amid an opposition boycott (in Djibouti) and a sidelined opposition (in Chad and Benin).

Plus updates on Cabo Verde, Gambia, Mali, Niger, Republic of the Congo, Senegal, Somalia, Somaliland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

And a cool picture of the lagoon in Cotonou, Benin.

03/27/2021

India: Polls are open in West Bengal and Assam for state assembly elections. In total, five states will elect their governments between now and May, in phases (so we won't know the results for a long time). The elections are a key test for Modi. West Bengal (whose capital is Kolkata aka Calcutta), a former Communist stronghold, Modi's BJP has never won power, but he and his deputies have been campaigning there vigorously. Conversely, BJP is currently in power in neighboring Assam.

These elections are taking place in the context of growing concerns about democratic backsliding in India. This year, Freedom House downgraded its rating from Free to Partly Free, and the Swedish V-Dem Institute downgraded India to an "electoral autocracy." Nonetheless, India remains an important counterweight to China, which is certainly not a democracy and has grown bolder in its attempts to spread authoritarianism around the world. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-politics-election/two-indian-states-vote-in-test-for-modi-idUSKBN2BJ06R?il=0

03/23/2021

Polls are open in . Is the fourth time a charm? https://21votes.com/israel-elections/

An overview of Israel's upcoming and recent elections, plus curated news and analysis of elections in Israel, with political and geopolitical context.

03/18/2021

: David Ben-Gurion campaigning in 1949 ahead of the first elections in independent Israel. His Mapai, an ancestor to the modern Labor Party, would win the most seats, making him Israel's first PM.

Israel heads to the polls again on March 23 for the fourth elections in two years - the 24th elections in the country's history.

Photo credit: Hugo Mendelson (public domain) via the National Photo Collection of Israel.

03/11/2021

Counting votes in the 1913 Dutch general elections. The Netherlands holds parliamentary elections again next Wednesday - read all about it and other key Europe election news in our Europe election brief for the week. Photo credit: Cornelis Johan Hofker (public domain) https://21votes.com/europe-44/

03/05/2021

Get caught up on Eurasia election news for the week.

Human rights violations continue in Uzbekistan ahead of elections. Navalny moved to notorious prison in Russia. Kyrgyzstan gears up for local elections and constitutional referendum. Armenia closer to snap elections. And more.
https://21votes.com/eurasia-42/

Navalny moved to notorious prison in Russia, human rights in Uzbekistan, possible snap elections in Armenia, local elections in Kyrgyzstan, protests in Georgia and Belarus.

03/04/2021

All the key Europe election news from the past week, consolidated for easy reading! Netherlands gears up to hold the year's first parliamentary elections in Europe. Germany's "super election year" kicks off. Infighting among Scottish nationalists and a new Scottish Labour leader elected ahead of Scotland's parliamentary elections. And more. https://21votes.com/europe-43/

Netherlands gears up for parliamentary elections - the first of the year in Europe. Germany's "super election year" kicks off with state polls. And more.

03/03/2021

All of the key Africa election news for the week, gathered in one place. Big stories this week:

Côte d'Ivoire gears up for parliamentary elections following the turbulent, controversial presidential election in October.

Chad represses the opposition ahead of April's presidential election.

Somalia constitutional crisis continues. And more. https://21votes.com/africa-45/

Upcoming legislative elections in Cote d'Ivoire, pre-election repression in Chad, and more.