Dr. Studs' Weather Outlook

06/20/2024

What was considered to be a slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season is starting to pick up the pace. TS Alberto made landfall earlier today, so the focus moves to the SW Atlantic, north of the Bahamas AND the western Caribbean Sea.

For now, our focus will be Invest 92L near the Bahamas - it is forecast towards the NW and likely impact the north Florida/Georgia coast over the weekend. Conditions are marginal for potential development with dry air aloft, both south of the system, being drawn into the core, and across the southeast US. This will still be a rainmaker and could bring higher surf and riptides.

We will watch the system expected to move across the Yucatan and provide updates, as needed.

06/16/2024

The newest run of the “American” model, the GFS, shows between 5” and 15” of rain between Monday and Thursday along with occasional high winds from a disorganized tropical system. Still looks like an active week. Will take another look tomorrow.

06/13/2024

As high pressure pulls away from the coast, a return to southerly winds will yield much warmer weather today. Highs should rise into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in spots, accompanied by some isolated showers. Severe weather chances increase by Fri.

06/13/2024

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06/13/2024

Outlook for Friday (6/14) afternoon - Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The cold front should mostly move offshore by 8 PM ET.

An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates.

06/11/2024

06/07/2024

WOW, just wow! The NWS now says the Montgomery County Tornado was on the ground for 26 miles as it went toward Olney and Ashton. I was wondering about this yesterday, as we saw damage in and around the Olney area. Again, just WOW! Long track Tornadoes in our area are rare.

06/06/2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Delaware
Central and Eastern Maryland
Southern half of New Jersey
Southeast Pennsylvania
Eastern and Southern Virginia
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop through the afternoon into several broken bands of strong to severe thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage. This activity will likely push east of the Atlantic Seaboard by mid to late evening with the severe risk diminishing from west to east across the Watch area.

05/29/2024

11:05am-Scattered shower and t-storm activity will gradually increase from west to east as we head into mid to late afternoon (through 7pm). Gusty winds (40-50 mph) and small hail are the primary threats with t-storm activity today as a cold front crosses the region. Highs today around 80 with drier conditions tonight and lows in the 50s.

05/27/2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Central and Eastern Maryland
Central and Eastern North Carolina
Eastern and Northern Virginia
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon across the region. Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risk, but some hail is possible, and a moist environment and strong atmospheric winds will also support a tornado risk.

05/27/2024

Severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening. Please remember to seek shelter immediately when thunderstorms are occurring or imminent. When thunder roars, go indoors! Follow https://www.weather.gov/ind/LightningSafetyAwareness for more details.

05/27/2024

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been expanded eastward to include portions of north central Maryland and the DC metro. The portion of the line east of the Blue Ridge has shown radar indicated large hail and rotation. For the latest: www.weather.gov/lwx

05/23/2024

Numerous showers are expected this morning with a second round of showers and thunderstorms expected late this afternoon through tonight. Some thunderstorms may be severe late this afternoon and this evening.

05/22/2024

2:22PM-Scattered showers & t'storms continue to slowly progress east from the I-81 corridor. This activity will move into the metro region between 4-8pm. Storms will be capable of producing damaging winds & large hail. Highs this afternoon near 90 & heat indices in the low 90s.

05/11/2024

05/06/2024

A mild & humid air mass has settled over the area tonight. Forecast low temps will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (10-15 degrees above normal). Given the combination of light winds and moist air, patchy fog will likely develop, some becoming locally dense.

05/02/2024

The 3 major airports in the local area saw high temp records today! This also marked the 1st 90 degree day for Reagan National Airport. Compared to average, the typical 1st 90 degree day occurs a few weeks from now. Mild conditions persist into the night.

04/30/2024

Warm and more humid today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the west.

12/21/2022

After much consideration and treating it as a business decision, this will be the last post for Dr. Studs' Weather Outlook.

After nearly seven years, this group has run its course. A reminder of something that I have actually known for a long time, weather data and forecasts have become commoditized. While people value it, they don't see *value* in it.

I considered make this a pay group, but was not convinced that not enough people would subscribe. If I'm wrong, please let me know.

Have a wonderful holiday season and let's make it an amazing 2023!

12/19/2022

Winter Weather - Dec 19, 10:15 AM EST (Thurs 12/22 – Sun 12/25)

At this point, it doesn’t look like this week’s winter storm will match last week’s hype. At least for a large portion of the DMV area.

The midweek storm is currently forecast to be focused on the northern Plains, Great Lakes region, extending into the Northeast. Western Maryland, along with western Virginia, and West Virginia will be start as wintry mix, ending as snow. No White Christmas for central Maryland but Thursday will be another rainy day.

However, a major cold air outbreak is expected for the eastern half of the continent. The wind chill map for Christmas morning is included below, as is the forecast snow cover map.

Beyond that, the weather stays cold but nothing in the cards for snow.

Be safe & stay weather aware.

If you appreciate these updates, please support through Venmo (Aaron-Studwell) or PayPal ([email protected]).

Dr. Studs’ Weather Outlook is part of ExoConsulting, LLC - a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

12/18/2022

May this festival bring blessings upon you and your family - Happy Hanukkah!

12/17/2022

In the short-term, nice.

Long-term, I’m watching for possible winter storm AND a major Arctic 🐻‍❄️ outbreak.

Let me know if you want (or don’t) a white Christmas 🎄

Mountain snow showers look to linger along and west of the Allegheny Front through Sunday. Further east expect passing clouds tonight into Saturday. Lows will range from the teens and low 20s in the mountains to mid 30s further east. Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will remain cold with 20s over the mountains and low 40s further east. Dry conditions into early next week.

12/15/2022

And so it begins…

12/15/2022

An Ice Storm Warning is in effect until 10 PM Thurs 12/15 for far western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and extreme western Virginia. Ice accumulation up to 1” are possible.

A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect across the region for a wintry mix, which will start in the early morning hours. Freezing rain & sleet is expected thru mid-morning (closer to noon north of Baltimore).

IF you need to drive in the morning, give yourself extra time and be safe.

(Cartoon by Nathan W. Pyle)

12/14/2022

Consider this today’s update - tomorrow’s AM commute is expected to be a mess with a wintry mix spreading across the region after midnight.

By the midday hours tomorrow, it will change over to rain for portions of the region. For the areas under the Ice Storm Warning, they won’t be so lucky and the freezing rain will continue into early Friday.

Be careful & plan ahead - stay weather aware.

Ice Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Significant icing is likely along and west of the Blue Ridge tonight through Thursday. Ice amounts of 0.25-0.75" are expected. Further east, up to a 0.10" of ice is expected north & west of I-95. Possible impacts include tree damage, power outages, and hazardous travel.

12/13/2022

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas west of the Blue Ridge from Wed evening into Thursday evening for the potential for significant ice accumulations. Latest: weather.gov/lwx/winter

12/12/2022

Winter Weather
Dec 12, 6:15 PM EST (Thurs 12/15 – Wintry mix/snow)

A wintry mix is forecast to begin late Wednesday night west of the Skyline Trail, extending north into the eastern WV Panhandle and far western Maryland. By Thursday morning, the wintry mix is expected to extend over northern Virginia, DC, and into central & western Maryland.

For the DC/Baltimore corridor, the region could receive more freezing rain/sleet finishing with a dangerous top coat of snow possible (particularly west of I-95). Precipitation is expected to end early Friday morning.

Totals are still in flux. To give a range:

Freezing rain: North & west of Baltimore, along with west of I-95 in central Maryland could reach 0.5” of accumulated ice; the I-81 corridor from Charlottesville, VA to Harrisburg, PA up to 1”

Snow: Accumulating snow is leaning towards unlikely in central Maryland. Afternoon temperatures east of I-95 will be in the upper 30s.

Central MD is likely to see it start at a wintry mix, which could make the AM commute a slog. By mid-morning, it is expected to change over to cold rain. The official meteorological term is “crappy.” Total rainfall will range from 1.5-2.5” across central & southern MD. It’d definitely be a case of it’d be lot worse if the conditions were more conducive for snow.

Coastal flood advisories will likely be required along the western shore of the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays with persistent west/southwest winds forecast.

For those traveling north, this event will get worse with higher snowfall totals and a risk of freezing rain continues north into central and western Pennsylvania.

Be safe & stay weather aware.

If you appreciate these updates, please support through Venmo (Aaron-Studwell) or PayPal ([email protected]).

Dr. Studs’ Weather Outlook is part of ExoConsulting, LLC - a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

12/11/2022

Winter Weather – Quick Sunday AM update

Dec 11, 11:45 AM EST (Thurs 12/15 – Wintry mix/snow)

Once we get past a rainy day, we’ll be looking ahead to the first winter weather of the season for the DC/Baltimore metro area. A rather complicated pattern is anticipated over the eastern third of the U.S. with surface lows near the Great Lakes and over the Carolinas on Thursday.

For more specifics, please reference yesterday’s midday update. For now, a short update until this evening with the benefit of the midday forecast models.

For the DC/Baltimore corridor, the region could receive more freezing rain/sleet (particularly west of I-95), finishing with a dangerous top coat of snow. Totals are still in flux.

For those traveling north, this event will get worse with higher snowfall totals and a risk of freezing rain continues north into central and western Pennsylvania.

Be safe & stay weather aware.