Transatlantic Policy Quarterly Journal

14/03/2023

TPQ's Most Recent Issue is Now Available!
Check out 18 Incredible Articles from Leading Professors, Journalists, and Researchers on the Changing World Order, The "New Cold War," and the Influence of Conflict in Ukraine on Global Affairs.

A Year Since the Return of History: A New Cold War?

10/10/2022

"While sanctions have removed much of Iran’s oil and gas off the market and its traditional exports of nuts, dried fruits, rugs, and handicrafts, they have helped the fortunes of producers elsewhere. In turn, they have become a powerful lobby for maintaining sanctions on Iran. Lobbyists for Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia work behind the scenes to maintain the sanctions to dampen any competition from Iran in natural gas and oil and in turn weaken Iran politically. California pistachio growers lobby to keep Iranian nuts out of the U.S.. Of course, there is an army of anti-Iranian regime lobbyists—Israeli, Jewish, Arab- who want tighter sanctions to topple the Tehran regime," writes Professor Emeritus Hossein Askari.
http://transatlanticpolicy.com/blog/100/economic-sanctions--our-modern-day-gordian-knot

10/10/2022

"The NATO 2022 Strategic Concept reiterated that strategic concern: “[EDTs]…are altering the character of conflict, acquiring greater strategic importance, and becoming key arenas of global competition. Technological primacy increasingly influences success on the battlefield.” The goal of technological primacy, in turn, yielded an intra-alliance agreement to “promote innovation and increase our investments in emerging and disruptive technologies to retain our interoperability and military edge.” The new strategic concept identified the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China as NATO’s contemporaneous and putative threats, respectively, to the alliance and its member states. Emerging technologies play a key role in shaping the NATO perception of the nature of the threats posed. In the Russian case, the document identified the deployment of “novel and disruptive dual-capable delivery systems” (i.e., hypersonic missiles and cruise missiles) that could lead to fundamental changes in nuclear doctrine and fatally compromise allied nuclear (and conventional) deterrence. The immediate concerns with China are ongoing “malicious hybrid and cyber operations” against NATO member states, but the long-term threat was identified as China’s long-term ambition to control “key technological and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic materials and supply chains.” If that goal were to be realized, China would offset or end NATO’s existing margin of technological dominance."
http://transatlanticpolicy.com/article/1145/future-uncertain-nato-in-a-post-quantum-post-ai-world

09/10/2022

"The increase in foreign trade also involved a greater involvement in the global economy and governance. China's engagement was promoted by a U.S. that saw the more significant economic integration of China as leading to greater global stability and new investment opportunities. There was a naive belief that increased globalization of China's economy would lead to greater democratization of Chinese society. China became an essential hub of the global economy; it is now the leading trading partner of at least 80 countries. China has also embarked on a global investment program. The Belt and Road initiative involves vast infrastructure investment at selected hubs along land and sea routes linking China with the rest of the world."

The Russian invasion of Ukraine signals a new world order that has developed from the bipolar world of 1945 to 1991 and

08/10/2022

"The jubilant tone of the leaders could hardly obscure the hyperbole their statements entailed: Did such a strong unity actually exist across the Western world even while such speeches were being made at the NATO summit? A more serious cause for concern was the possible effect on global geopolitics of a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. One significant change in NATO’s new Strategic Concept harkens back to the Cold War in some ways. Second is a major geopolitical change brought on by Russia’s energy export restrictions to Europe. Third is the degree to which a prolonged conflict may affect centrifugal forces within the Western alliance, given differing economic vulnerabilities and economic priorities among them. Fourth is what recent evidence may be considered as a guide to assess the effects of sanctions imposed on Russia. The following discussion will consider these four questions and their implications for transatlantic security."

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have led, with very few exceptions, to greater cooperation among members of

07/10/2022

"While “the post-Cold War era” has come to an end with the beginning of the war, the political economy of globalization has been altered, combating global warming has been neglected, and a more fluid and disruptive era has begun. Furthermore, there is a laundry list of signs that the Pax-Americana and its embedded liberal post-1945 world order are quickly coming to an end: calls for the “Second Cold War” or “Cold War 2.0”; concerns about a nuclear war leading to the “Third World War”; trade wars and the rise of “de-globalization”; widening and deepening of severe polarization, exclusionary nationalism and “culture wars”; democratic backsliding and illiberal authoritarian populism; the global power shift and the fortification of the power of the non-Western international relations and strategic capitalism. Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while fastening the end of the era, has been bringing about a variety of morbid symptoms and crisis-ridden developments, requiring each and every actor to reposition its role and place. During this interregnum, this transition, no actor is immune from the necessity to recalibrate its capacity and strategy. Strategic vision and choice are absolutely imperative for success. This is nowhere more evident and necessary than in Europe and the West."

At the beginning of 2022, just as the globalizing world was entering the post-Covid period and the United Nations

06/10/2022

"While NATO’s three core tasks– collective defense, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security– remain, this new Concept is significantly different in scope and tone compared to its 2010 predecessor. Several aspects of the security environment a decade ago informed the 2010 Concept. The ambition of that time was to develop a strategic partnership with the Russian Federation. There was also a belief that the international security order was, overall, more predictable and that most security challenges would come from beyond NATO’s area of responsibility. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) had not yet reached the transatlantic security agenda. These facts led to a consequent strong focus on crisis management. As we enter the 2020s, the Madrid Concept describes today’s more unstable and challenging security environment, and makes clear the need for Allies to be prepared for this volatility."

In June 2022, Spain hosted one of the most consequential summits in NATO’s history. The doors of the Alliance were

26/09/2022

"Even if Mr. Putin was to achieve all his territorial objectives in Ukraine, that would do little to enhance his country’s security. NATO’s new-found unity, increased strength and more extended border pose a greater threat to Russia than Ukraine’s foreign policy ever did. Russia will emerge from the war more vulnerable than when it initiated the conflict."
http://transatlanticpolicy.com/article/1151/russias-assault-on-ukraine-fallout-from-the-war

25/09/2022

"Developments in AI, quantum, hypersonic, and directed energy weapons technologies will inevitably shift the offensive-defensive balance in ways that will aggravate the security dilemma. The inevitable shift to an offensive strategy is problematic for a self-declared defensive alliance, especially since NATO derived and sustained its political legitimacy from that mission."

The emerging and disruptive technologies of the 21st century—artificial intelligence and quantum

24/09/2022

"The failures weakened the U.S. in the eyes of the world. They also led to mounting domestic criticisms of wars and debilitating engagements that lacked strategic significance."

The Russian invasion of Ukraine signals a new world order that has developed from the bipolar world of 1945 to 1991 and

19/09/2022

"There are two central questions in need of answers. Why did the war occur and how would it end? The trigger of the war is the enlargement of NATO. The Soviet disunion is followed by a successive instances of NATO membership of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. The enlargement resembles a domino effect that transformed the NATO-Russia border," argues Serdar Ş. Güner.

The trigger of the Ukraine-Russia war is the enlargement of NATO, essentially a Western exploitation of Russian weakness

18/09/2022

"Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western powers, the country has profited handsomely from high oil and natural gas prices on the world market. A Finnish Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air report estimated Russia’s daily profits at about one billion dollars from oil and gas exports during the first hundred days of the invasion. That could cover the estimated daily war expenditures of $876 million. Oddly, the ruble has appreciated against the U.S. dollar and the Euro despite the double-digit inflation, partly because of forced conversion of foreign earnings and reduced imports," argues Dina S. Spechler and Martin C. Spechler.

The war between Russia and Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, has now gone on for more than four months. It has

17/09/2022

"Developments in AI, quantum, hypersonic, and directed energy weapons technologies will inevitably shift the offensive-defensive balance in ways that will aggravate the security dilemma. The inevitable shift to an offensive strategy is problematic for a self-declared defensive alliance, especially since NATO derived and sustained its political legitimacy from that mission," argues James Sperling.
http://transatlanticpolicy.com/article/1145/future-uncertain-nato-in-a-post-quantum-post-ai-world

16/09/2022

"The failures weakened the U.S. in the eyes of the world. They also led to mounting domestic criticisms of wars and debilitating engagements that lacked strategic significance. A more radical grand strategy of restraint gained strength. The broad contours of the argument are that the U.S. faces limited threats because of its geographical position, so international alliances are not needed, and the military should be drastically downsized. The proponents of restraint argue that extensive alliances come with actual costs of entanglement and the possibility of entrapment. Pursuing primacy is too costly and ineffective in reducing arms proliferation or encouraging democracy. After almost two decades of futile wars, the idea of pursuing a strategy of restraint appealed to more people in the U.S.," argues John Rennie Short.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine signals a new world order that has developed from the bipolar world of 1945 to 1991 and

16/09/2022

"After the Cold War was over, NATO’s Strategic Concept underwent three changes in tandem with Europe’s changing strategic environment. The first one, adopted on 7 November 1991, took into account the waning of the Soviet threat, with the Soviet troops beginning to withdraw from Eastern Europe and the former USSR satellite states gaining their sovereignty," writes Ahmet Evin.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have led, with very few exceptions, to greater cooperation among members of

15/09/2022

"I argue that it is in this context of the simultaneous existence of war and system transitions that NATO’s Madrid Summit, and its “new Strategic Concept” should be analyzed and assessed. It has been seven months since the beginning of the ongoing invasion. As the conflict and combat have escalated, its impact has been crisis-ridden and multilayered. The war has sparked anew period of geopolitical and geo-economic uncertainties. The world as we know has profoundly changed. Moreover, we might be in a situation today where we are not able to fully capture the effects of the invasion, which might ripple out for years. As we can already see from the ensuing food and energy crises, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought to the fore the multiple crises of globalization that have been occurring simultaneously in the areas of security, energy, and food, coupled with climate, recession, unemployment, and inflation. At the same time, this has accelerated the ongoing systemic change and transition," writes Fuat Keyman.

At the beginning of 2022, just as the globalizing world was entering the post-Covid period and the United Nations

15/09/2022

"Perhaps the most notable difference between the Lisbon and the Madrid Strategic Concepts concerns the change in NATO’s relations with the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, its aggressive pattern of behavior against its neighbors and NATO Allies, and the full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have broken the trust that was once at the core of the NATO-Russia relationship, changing it fundamentally for the long-term. In this context, meaningful dialogue with the Russian Federation is no longer possible, precisely because of its blatant violation of international law and use of military force against an independent, sovereign nation," writes Carmen Romero, the Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy at North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In June 2022, Spain hosted one of the most consequential summits in NATO’s history. The doors of the Alliance were

31/08/2022

TPQ's Summer 2022 issue is now online! Thirteen articles, which focus on NATO's Changing Priorities, are now awaiting you to read. With the support of Halifax, we are bringing you the valuable perspectives of prominent scholars, journalists and more!

14/08/2022

"Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western powers, the country has profited handsomely from high oil and natural gas prices on the world market." Dina R. Spechler & Martin C. Spechler in TPQ Digital Issue

The war between Russia and Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, has now gone on for more than four months. It has

13/08/2022

"The energy crisis is real, and will get worse during 2022, but the decisiveness that Brussels has displayed in liberating itself from unreliable Russian energy supplies will benefit its firms and consumers in the long run." Dimitris Tsarouhas in TPQ Digital Issue

Russia’s war against Ukraine offers the European Union (EU) an opportunity to follow through on its rhetoric

12/08/2022

"Historical wisdom may be asking too much in this case, but historical resentment is more likely. No matter the eventual outcome, this conflict will deepen anti-Western feelings in Russia." Brendan Humphreys in TPQ Digital Issue

This article looks at the Ukraine war in terms of possible security outcomes that are contingent, of course, on how the

09/08/2022

We are proud to announce, our first Digital Issue "CONSEQUENCES OF THE RUSSO-UKRAINIAN WAR" is now online. To learn more about expert opinions regarding this current issue which affects global politics, check out TPQ website:

Digital Issue: Consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian War

08/08/2022

"Moreover, new political visions might require a policy change, and in such a context, the mistake is not in the past but in the present, that is, continuing to subscribe to an obsolete paradigm." Knud Erik Jørgensen in TPQ Spring

The hour of reckoning is when one confronts past mistakes and decides what to do next. Russia’s war in Ukraine

08/08/2022

"[m]ost interdependence theorists ground their arguments in objective rationalities. Yet one does not have to be a constructivist to argue that preferences are always contextual and subjective." Thomas Diez in TPQ Spring

Russia’s war in Ukraine fundamentally challenges the post-Cold War international order. Yet the scenario of a

06/08/2022

"In terms of energy, the EU seeks to ensure its share of gas exported from Israel. It is to be expected that soon the parties will hold concrete negotiations regarding the quantities that Europe will request and be able to receive." Michael Harari in TPQ OPINION

The MOU for Gas Sales from Israel to Europe: Meanings and Implications