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24/04/2024

04/04/2024

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BJP 166 or 214 LS Seats? Between these 2 surveys lies the truth

Modi can claim 543 paar for all he wants; It’s a good old Goebbelsian tactic to con the electorate to vote for BJP in a follow-the-crowd manner. Provided, the electorate buys his claims in the first place. There is not much for the BJP to show to the electorate to solicit its votes, with religion and temple politics have lost their sting. The Ram Temple tamasha disappearing from the lead news cycle after about 48 hours is telling.

Yet, in the midst of a visibly developing BJP electoral debacle, you have numerous surveys giving NDA over 400 seats, forgetting that the only time anyone got over 400 seats was after a sitting PM was assassinated! All of these surveys are from Godi media.

Two surveys, though, give us a good working idea of what the results could look like.

One, is an alleged BJP-RSS’s internal survey which the RSS mouthpiece Organizer says is a fake. But RSS had earlier already clearly said that BJP is in the doldrums, lending some credibility to the alleged survey, particularly as it reflects the RSS’ own statement reported by Scroll.in and other media outlets.

“Indications about this have come not from the Hindutva party’s rivals but by its parent organization – the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh,” – Scroll.in had reported on June 24, 2023.

“Without strong leadership and effective delivery at the regional level, Prime Minister Modi’s charisma and Hindutva as an ideological glue would not be sufficient,” it added.

Even if it is fake and projects more seats for the BJP, let us still take into account the alleged RSS survey as it is additionally closer to the ground reality articulated by various analysts.

The other is the survey done by Centre for Political Research and Policy (CPRP) along with professional survey partners and psephologists around the nation.

The alleged RSS-BJP survey does not give any numbers for INC though the second survey does.

Between the two, 166 (CPRP survey) +214 (RSS survey), BJP gets an average projection of 190 seats.

The CPRP survey, on the other hand, gives 166 seats to BJP, 172 to INC and a total of 292 for NDA.

One can only conclude that, the eventual number for the BJP in all likelihood lies somewhere between 166-214 seats with 190 being a high probability, unless EVM manipulation and counting fraud does occurs.

On the other hand, 400 paar, in the least is a pipe dream, at worst a schizophrenic’s uncontrollable hallucinations.