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https://www.fox43.com/article/money/economy/default-on-debt-ceiling-will-pose-big-problem-for-pa-jobs-economy-pennsylvan...
05/24/2023

https://www.fox43.com/article/money/economy/default-on-debt-ceiling-will-pose-big-problem-for-pa-jobs-economy-pennsylvania/521-ada2b119-0c3b-498e-9ad3-a32efac5c504?fbclid=IwAR1LSXWxIZYrlm2bTpZH6wzyRrxr_kMrNf3pa5-HxTqlildrZPxrhVa_9SE

So, the reality is even if we do default, it will likely be in the form of missing days' worth of social security payments (that counts as a technical default as far as credit markets go). If and when we do default, the market reaction will be so swift and so severe lawmakers and Biden will sprint toward compromise to get an emergency deal done. They will lose their current confidence in not budging or compromising very quickly when the stock market drops 7% in a few hours, the bond market goes into spasm, and Biden's White House is inundated with angry and frantic phone calls from world leaders from all over the globe. It will be ugly. That said, the damage will be quickly reversed when a deal is done, likely making this a good opportunity to buy bonds and equities on weakness - likely, it will be a short-term raise to buy more time to negotiate. The reality is the US is still.. well, the US, and if we quickly remedy a breach, it's unlikely that the "default" will be treated by the market as a genuine default stemming from structural issues, and therefore we won't see a massive, permanent rerating of government debt, and therefore most commercial debt, several hundred basis points higher (US debt is the reference rate, if US debt rerates 100bps higher, you can expect to see that reflected in corporate /. municipal bonds as well).

I can't believe I'm saying this, and I don't like this fact, but the Democrats arguing for Biden to lift the limit via the 14th amendment could actually be correct in that the power is there to do that, and I somewhat support them going down that road if not to permanently end the debt limit as a legislative device.. 14A makes it clear that a default on US debt is unconstitutional. A large portion of our new debt issuance is to pay off past debt, so to make good on past debt, we have to actually borrow more money. To me, this means there is a constitutional argument to be had that due to our debt obligations that were permitted by past sessions of Congress (and for expenses appropriated and allocated by Congress), the US needs to continue accessing the debt marketplace in the form of new treasury issuance - which I *think* gives the executive branch the constitutional right to issue more debt beyond any arbitrary limit. Furthermore, Congress decides how to appropriate/allocate money; once they have done that, their duty with the strings of the purse is complete. From that point on, the actual financing of those spending decisions rests with the executive branch.

The 14th is clear: the US has a constitutional duty to honor its debt, and given the debt, it is to pay off past debt and pay for spending already approved by Congress. A strong case can be made that the limit itself is unconstitutional. If Congress wants to limit or reverse spending decisions, it should pass a bill. Refusing to honor past made obligations and commitments, as well as paralyzing the federal government's capacity to issue debt in order to pay off existing debt (yes, the US government is essentially running a Ponzi scheme if you think about it..), seems to be at odds with the Constitution (at the very least, in spirit). The founders would not be ok with arbitrarily halting obligations or restricting the executive branch's ability to access the debt market after spending has been approved or past debt is due for refinancing. My belief is that they created a system in which Congress could pass legislation that appropriates and allocates funding, at which point their duty to manage the nation's purse has been met. This debt is to pay for past approved spending and to pay for past debt issuance that was authorized by Congress.

I don't know, mixed feelings. Biden has been out of control with spending, and it's time we get back to a pre covid budget deficit size. To some degree, I'm glad Republicans have something to work with to force a concession, and given the circumstances, I do think Biden needs to make concessions as the obligation and capacity to honor debt rest in his hands as the chief executive - and that must be done no matter the cost to the president's personal spending agenda. But that said, I have always hated the debt limit. It's literally like giving a financial nuclear bomb to uninformed, unsophisticated parties and expecting them to negotiate the issue in brinksmanship and never accidentally setting it off. I hope at some point, when Congress and WH are aligned/have supermajorities, this dumb device is permanently done away with.

I think it's a ridiculous concept to begin with.. that a country with a nearly unlimited capacity to borrow and full ability to honor that debt (nevermind the fact that it controls its own currency and has the ability to print as much of it as needed to honor obligations) is thrown into a near-crisis situation every year and a half or so when the parties are split between Congress and the White House. It should be pretty simple: Congress should either not approve spending or pass legislation to reverse previous spending bills. I feel this way regardless of the party in control of the White House. Again, the bottom line, we need to issue debt to honor past made commitments - such as social security payments - as well as service previously issued debt. It's the honoring of past debt commitments by way of issuing new debt to do so that makes the 14th Amendment case stick.

I've spent a lot of time in finance as an active market participant, and I believe I have good familiarity with debt markets, public markets more broadly, ramifications of debt issuing/debt default, and, importantly, a comprehensive grasp on the outsized role US treasuries play in both domestic and foreign markets. They really are at the heart of the modern financial system. To break them by way of not raising the level of some archaic device like this debt ceiling is absolutely crazy. The parties involved - Biden, McCarthy, Congress, etc. - clearly don't fully grasp or have an understanding of the ramifications of breaking the treasury market. These lifetime politicians and even some of the people meant to be expert advisors but who have never operated outside of government policy are just clueless about financial markets and the credit-driven, US debt-anchored global financial system more broadly..

It is really hard to overstate just how big of a deal it is in terms of breaking the financial system to mess with the treasury market and creditworthiness more broadly. It will cause structurally higher borrowing costs as this now realized the risk of US default due to political BS must be priced into the market (and I think that's going to happen regardless of a deal in time or no deal, I fully expect a credit downgrade/comment from the rating agencies in the coming days/weeks). It rattles business confidence and stability in their corporate treasury activity (investing cash into short/medium-term assets with yield) and undermines US leadership/power over international markets (just another hit to our reserve currency standing..). I could go on at length about what the ramifications would be immediate to longer term, but I'll summarize that it's really bad, with lots of chaos and potentially severely broken markets.
More interesting than the 14th Amendment would be extraordinary Fed US debt purchases and remittance to the Treasury, or the treasury outright using its ability to print money (now done via the Fed through the open market committee adding zeroes to its buying power) to retire/expunge outstanding debt. They could go out to the marketplace and bid up every treasury on offer, then essentially retire the debt and remit the balance back to the Treasury Department, lowering outstanding debt and giving the treasury the capacity to issue new debt.

Another route that could be taken is the Fed using its abilities to create a financing window for the treasury to access. Those funds could then be used to cover expenses as they arise until a limit raise is sorted out. Even further, the Fed could do a discount window with the treasury itself, where the treasury posts some form of collateral with minimal value (maybe an IOU of sorts that don't constitute new public debt), and the Fed would lend against that collateral at a massively inflated valuation, flooding the treasury in new cash to cover immediate obligations.

These Federal Reserve scenarios are unlikely, but if it hits the fan and we do trigger a default, it is guaranteed the Federal Reserve will try and do something. It depends on how creative and willing Jerome Powell is to push the legal limit. In summary, this is a very real threat to economic performance. Missing debt payments will trigger lots of knock-on effects, paralyze business investment, potentially break more small/regional banks, cause chaos in global markets, and assuredly will lead to a significant sell-off in the stock market. The debt limit is a dumb device that needs to be removed - the debt limit has been increased 70+ times over the last 50 years. By way of past precedent (up until this go around), the debt ceiling plays a pretty pure symbolic role. Biden does need to make concessions, it's his game to lose, but Republicans need to be within the bounds of reason in their requests. Get a small win and punt this financial weapon of mass destruction for a year or more.

Biden's spending has been outrageous, COVID is long behind us at this point and budget are still bursting at the seams, and deficits are well over 1 trillion / year, despite no longer being in an emergency environment. To cool inflation and get back on track, we need the federal budget and total government spending to revert back to 2019 levels, where the deficit was a (relatively) mild $900 billion. Will post more as we approach June 1st and potentially trigger a default.

One estimate shows a prolonged breach of the debt ceiling could cost the commonwealth more than 200,000 jobs.

A new essay out today presents proposals and ideas to address the economic challenges facing Erie, Pennsylvania. It addr...
05/08/2023

A new essay out today presents proposals and ideas to address the economic challenges facing Erie, Pennsylvania. It addresses three industry sectors that could be a strong fit and serve the community well, as well as they, themselves, benefitting from what Erie has to offer in terms of competitive advantages. The ideas range from simple to bold, I encourage you to read despite its length.

These proposals include the creation of designated "Industry Development" or "Growth Zones," the establishment of a pension investment program to attract new businesses, and the hiring of a full-time city ambassador to serve as a liaison to potential businesses.

These proposals aim to maximize the leverage of local and nonprofit resources, attract new businesses to Erie, and stabilize the city's industrial base. They suggest being proactive in identifying the future of industry in Erie, understanding the needs of businesses, and coordinating and marshaling resources from the whole community to make strategic investments.

While these proposals may not require huge budgets, they do require the desire to be proactive and the participation of the whole community. Incremental steps taken now could translate into major transformations in the future, leading to a brighter economic future for Erie.

The future could be much brighter for Erie with the right emphasis on the industry with a detailed vision of the sectors and industries we recruit to the region, as well as strategies for recruitment

05/06/2023

125,000 Page Reach, 9200 Facebook Profile Visits, 1.1k Page Followers. 10 Days. Thank you so much to everyone who has come and visited this project, provided feedback, and shared the content with their contacts. A lot of work goes into writing this platform's essays, as well as managing a website, the analytics, and other tools that go with it, and keeping up with an active social media presence. I hope you continue to keep putting faith in our work here and visit back frequently to read the latest content - I will always do my best to meet your expectations and deliver accurate and insightful information and ideas to you in an unbiased and fair way.

Thanks again for helping Independent Erie Review reach these milestones. It happened a lot quicker than I expected!

05/06/2023
Some AI augmented images of downtown that depict the city in a century from now after going through a long, sustained ec...
05/06/2023

Some AI augmented images of downtown that depict the city in a century from now after going through a long, sustained economic boom and has seen billions of dollars of investment made into development.

Fun to play around with and imagine what the future could look like. Partial to the bottom left version. The image used as a source file is also attached - you should be able to tell which one that is!

05/05/2023

The page has been growing rapidly, so we're operating on the fly getting things set up - didn't expect this type of reaction so quickly. With that said, the page has received a lot of questions about the page itself, the city, additional information about articles that have been posted, and questions regarding the data used to make the analysis. So to that end, Independent Erie Review now has an email set up for answering all those questions and anything else any reader might want to know. The email has a very original name: [email protected].

Additionally, this page covers a lot of issues regarding Erie in depth and at length, often covering and discussing topics that should be addressed by local media. This is not a criticism of the media, regular daily and hourly reporting on all matters of news takes a lot of time and effort, and with the challenges print media has had financially, I would imagine their staff are stretched thin and don't have the time available to commit to long-form coverage and op-eds.

That said, we occasionally post information that is newsworthy that local media might want to cover themselves. To help them get the information they need or ask questions about the page, an email was set up for that as well: [email protected].

Finally, one of the primary stated goals of this page is to do in-depth coverage of issues that matter to Erie, especially in the government domain. But our mandate expands beyond that, and we plan to write and cover other important city issues that include new developments, nonprofit activity, local economics, as well as city projects and plans. We also want to expose instances of corruption or foul play and engage in true investigative reporting.

However, we only have so much capacity to dig into things and learn about those types of activities, but we have a small army of eyes and ears out there that might have insight into these types of issues. Therefore, we set up an encrypted, secure email that is only accessed by one person and automatically deletes after 48 hours so that our audience and citizens, in general, can report their observations and insights into these matters. That address is [email protected].

Finally, we believe there are a lot of smart people in our audience who have good ideas, insight, and things to say. The local paper has strict limitations on letters to the editor on length, and they do pick and choose what to publish, so many people who have important things to say go unheard. To that end, and also to help grow our platform and make sure we have consistent content for our readers, we have set up an email for people that want to submit Opeds of their own.

If you want to write and publish something and take advantage of our platform and its reach (this week, the page has had 100,000 viewers), you can submit your writing to us. These submissions can be op-eds, proposals for city government or business development, thoughts on the future of Erie, visions for a more prosperous community, and breakdowns of stories that have gone underreported.

As long as the content is sincere, devoid of ad hominem attacks, and generally written in the spirit of fair and informative content, we will work with you and publish your work on our site and ensure it reaches a wide audience. If personal credit is desired, we are also happy to provide that. The email address for those submissions is [email protected].

We do reserve the right to edit submissions for grammar and spelling, but if not, your content will go unmolested. All that said, we will not consider mean-spirited, personal, or baseless content for publication. If you would like to submit something, email a quick background on who you are (you can remain nameless) and the body of your work that you would like to see published. We hope this makes the platform more interesting and engaging for our audience, and we look forward to reading your work!

We aren't a news outlet yet. That very well could change one day if this proves to be successful and the time commitment can be justified. We keep ourselves from being traditional journalists. We are a new media digital outlet for op-ed and analytical writing. We cover issues we think need attention, and when critical, we suggest ways to solve the problem or improve the service/issue in question.

We also put out ideas for the city, whether related to discussed activity or not, to implement with the goal of improving our communities outlook over the next years and decades. These topics range from ways city operations could be made more efficient to ideas on how to develop economic dead zones in certain segments of the city.

We hope those with resources and power see these ideas and, if they approve or think they would be a net positive, do their best to implement them.

I hope providing these emails is useful to our audience, and again, we thank you for sticking with us and reading our content. A lot of time and effort goes into writing each one. We want to be a catalyst for civic debate about issues impacting our city and a center for innovative thinking regarding improving the city.

If our growth continues at the pace it has over the last week and our audience remains satisfied that we have kept up our end of the bargain of unbiased, in-depth coverage, the model may change from a new media platform for OpEds to a true news outlet with more regular coverage of day to day news that they traditional media companies cover. However, if we expand to that mode, our commitment to no bias, political favoritism, and in-depth coverage will remain.

Thanks again, and the Independent Erie Review hope to see you soon!

A quick reference to email addresses:
[email protected] - General inquiries
[email protected] - Information tip line
[email protected] - Media inquiries
[email protected] - Op-ed submissions

A $6,000,000 win for the City and a fiscal-based endorsement for our coverage of city hall! Not bad for a publication le...
05/04/2023

A $6,000,000 win for the City and a fiscal-based endorsement for our coverage of city hall! Not bad for a publication less than a week old!!

Some very good news to share! The other day, we published a post outlining that the City of Erie holds a substantial amount of cash on its balance sheet, deposited in a banking checking account that pays next to no interest (and also only insures deposits up to $250,000). From our research, we found that the city had deposits totaling about $117 million. Fortunately, Chuck Nelson, City Council President, took notice of what we published, and immediately brought the issue up with the Mayor, Treasurer, and other related staff involved in managing the city's finances. It was confirmed to him that the City could, in fact, hold its cash assets in investment securities beyond just simple checking accounts, just as we called for.

In our earlier piece (linked below), we pointed out that the $117 million in cash deposits, if actively managed and invested into short-term debt securities, could earn a yield north of 5% due to the Federal Reserve's recent dramatic increases in the Federal Funds Rate, a policy action taken to combat inflation. It seemed crazy to us for that amount of cash to sit there and slowly dwindle in value due to inflation. However, through Nelson's inquiry, it became clear that the city's large cash balance could be held in Treasury Bills (short-dated Federal Government debt securities). Once this was confirmed, City Hall began making the moves necessary to execute the operation of moving the cash from deposit accounts to Treasury bills. This swift financial decision was based on an opportunity identified and an argument made by the Independent Erie Review just days ago.

So some money was moved around - what was the net result? A huge windfall for the city. The $100 million plus balance will be invested into 3-month Treasury Bills (yielding 5.255 as of today's market close) in the very near term. As a result, the city will see a large influx of cash to the tune of ~$6,000,000 in unexpected revenue for the 2023 fiscal year. Those earnings are more than enough to offset a potential budget deficit this fall and with enough left over to cover a large portion of our city's yearly debt-related payments.

We couldn't be happier. We started this publication to write about the city’s operations, ways it could improve, our financial condition and paths for improvement, and potential routes to future prosperity in Erie. To learn that, in less than a week since launching, our work published here directly led to the city generating $6,000,000 in revenue that would have otherwise never materialized. Many past budget fights and deficits have been fought over for much less.

Obviously, $6,000,000 is a large amount of money, but for added context, it's about 6-7% of the City’s total yearly operating budget. City Hall must be thrilled to have such a large source of revenue fall into their lap seemingly out of the blue. For our part, we couldn't be more pleased with the swift action taken by City Council President Chuck Nelson's interest and swift action, as well as the work done by the city's team that oversees financial matters. This is a win for all involved!

Here is the original article outlining the large cash balance and the opportunities it was missing out on by remaining in a checking account versus active treasury management rolling the balance into high-yielding short-term debt.

https://www.independenteriereview.com/p/expanding-on-the-large-city-cash

https://www.independenteriereview.com/p/expanding-on-the-large-city-cashWe have very good news to share on this shortly,...
05/04/2023

https://www.independenteriereview.com/p/expanding-on-the-large-city-cash

We have very good news to share on this shortly, the points in our essay were taken to heart and City Hall is taking action on this matter!

While the City can't invest its cash into typical investments like stocks or corporate bonds, it remains possible to earn a substantial return on that cash while taking minimal to no risk.

05/04/2023

https://wikx.news/npw - Erie Data Trained Version of ChatGPT. The same chat model behind the famous ChatGPT just also happens to be an expert on the City of Erie's finances.

Has a fair amount of credits, but eventually will run out and stop working. Running an OpenAI ChatGPT model is expensive. This one is trained on 2021 City of Erie financial data. Feel free to ask it about what bonds are outstanding, what is city tax revenue, what are total city expenses, what was investment income, what are our long-term liabilities, etc... In my experience, it had a successful answer rate of about 95%.

05/03/2023

It's been an exciting few days, we've just run two stories thus far - one of which was rather inconsequential to the City itself, just an interesting summary of the First Republic failure and PNC's connection - and already find ourselves with a surge of followers and many folks asking questions or bringing up city issues that deserve attention.

Unlike GoErie and other outlets, we are not an everyday, quick-read outlet. Our articles/essays are long reads, they are meant to be in-depth so that all can understand every aspect of the issue while ultimately providing some sort of proposal or suggestion on what could be learned, applied, or done differently by the city in the future to improve outcomes. If you are looking for a 2-minute read, you've come to the wrong place.

If you are looking for deep-dive analysis into City Hall practices, developments around Erie, and important community news, then you will be pleased with what is offered here. We only write about issues that are truly important and deserve substantial attention. We take time to lay out the problem and then take more time to detail the solution or alternative proposals that would remedy the problem.

For those who have had the patience to read our content, you have our thanks. Daily crime reporting, regurgitating politician press releases, and feel-good stories won't be found here, nor will daily news for the sake of news. We will be publishing one to two deep dives a week for the foreseeable future (with more frequent small commentaries posted reacting to news stories of the day and events taking place in real-time).

We hope that, down the road, we can add to our staff and expand coverage, but for now, we are dedicated to critical issues and their in-depth analysis. The reception so far has been very positive by a large margin, and we thank you for that. We hope to continue earning and maintaining that respect.

Thanks for your support and continued readership, and we hope to see you again soon. We have some interesting pieces lined up for the coming weeks, admittedly mostly discouraging, but worth reporting and making sure residents and taxpayers are aware of the brewing trouble on the horizon.

This is just an interesting note today to set up an interesting discussion about banking: the city holds $117,559,285 in...
05/01/2023

This is just an interesting note today to set up an interesting discussion about banking: the city holds $117,559,285 in its deposit account, well over the FDIC insurance limit of $250,000. Had the city engaged in active treasury management, this cash could have been put to work making millions. A long read, but it explains how the city could generate millions from idle cash without jeopardizing operations or taking any undue risk.

The city is missing out on millions by allowing funds to sit in non-interest-bearing checking. With active treasury management, millions could be collected.

Found an accounting gimmick that helped understate the 2023 deficit and protected the Golf department from scrutiny and ...
04/30/2023

Found an accounting gimmick that helped understate the 2023 deficit and protected the Golf department from scrutiny and possible backlash and pressure to sell the assets (that's far too much work, no one in City Hall wants to have to go through that). LS;DR - as of this year, without a doubt, the golf department is now a money loser, and low-income property owners are subsidizing golf rounds.

In the 2023 budget, one department has interesting income and expense projections. That would be the golf department, whose loss is already understood as the budget breakout doesn't include part-time labor in the golf unit as part of its expenses - according to city data, the golf department has one director and no other employees - if that's the case, that man is Superman given all the mowing and maintenance that must be done at two separate courses (one way out of town), not to mention being in multiple places to sell tickets, equipment, and deal with customers!

The 2023 Budget final figure for the Golf Department's total revenue is $639,366. For context, the prior year saw revenue of $576,561. The 2023 budget is anticipating an 11% increase in golf income, which is a statistically significant increase, and I see no evidence to explain why they expect such a large jump. In fact, golf income has been declining for the last few years, reporting a record high of $593,289 in 2020 - a year where many were out of work, had free recreation time, and were looking to get out do something other than sit at home. This makes sense. Since then, revenue has been declining. The low of the period of years accounted for was 576k. So budgeting a surge of $62k causes some questions, I can't think of why suddenly there would be a 15.5% surge in golf fees (where the increase in estimates is coming from).

Now, where it gets... shady. The Golf Deparment's 2023 Budget final projection is suggesting the expenses for the year will be, wait for it, $639,366. Yes. Exactly the same, to the dollar, as the Income figure that, barring some information unknown, is inflated to that exact figure. Mind you, in calculating that, operating supplies expenses will decline from $61,563 to $45,000. In other words, in a year where the city expects more people out on the course playing, the costs associated with operating it will decrease 37%. All of this definitely makes sense.

So given the income and expense numbers were projected to be identical - meaning the department didn't lose money - and the assumptions on revenue seem to be overinflated - what's going on here? My answer is that the city was finishing its budget last fall and was close to a deficit. They wanted that to be as small as possible, if not flat/breakeven, so a small department that no one really pays attention to could be fudged a little bit on the 2023 documents so that on passing glance (and who gives these documents much more than a passing glance at the paper, or anywhere else for that matter), who would notice that the income and expense figures offset beachgoer perfectly, producing no loss that would drag the deficit lower. Some call it accounting; I call it shady.

The other possibility for doing this, or maybe in addition, is that when the city is asked, "Why do we have a golf course," and "Does the golf course lose money," they can say, backed up by the budget, that it does not lose money. Well, I think that is BS. First of all, as mentioned, if you factor in the seasonal workers, there is no question that it losses money. But even pretending they don't exist, given the assumptions about operations costs going down. In contrast, use goes up, and inflated estimates of golf income rising significantly - even higher than an unprecedented year where golf was one of the few ways to get out of the house and do something with friends - I think there is no doubt the two golf courses (one of which you basically need to take a plane to get to its so far from city limits) lose money. I even think they were losing money before this year when you factor in the seasonal labor, but at minimum, this year, there is no doubt.

Why would the city want to be able to say, "No, the golf course doesn’t lose money?" My take is they don't want to deal with the backlash of people finally fed up enough with the golf situation to have one more (big) fact to add to their argument that these ridiculous courses cost taxpayers money. It would put them in a corner, there would be increased pressure to sell, and they might even have to do it, saddling them with a lot of work dealing with setting up actions and sales that I don't think they want to do.

It might not be that, but that's what makes the most sense to me as to why they would fudge numbers, along with the desire to prevent the deficit on paper from growing too large. The reality is that when it does present a loss, that loss will pass onto next year's budget and make the 2024 deficit even worse.

The important takeaway is to me, this is solid proof that city hall plays games with numbers to avoid bad narratives and make make-believe with numbers, and more importantly, we are in a relatively low-income city with a very tight budget city, substantial pension, and debt oblations, have annual close calls with deficits, and we own two golf courses, one far out of town, that LOSE taxpayer money. Taxpayers are net subsidizing middle and upper-middle-income golfers to play golf.

Owning the golf courses has been ridiculous, remains ridiculous, and is now an affront and beyond indefensible. in an auction process, do not award strictly on the bid, require developers to submit plans that outline their projects, materials used, number of units, etc., and then factor in the economic bid. At that point, you choose the developer whose plan advances the beauty, quality, and other city government property objectives goals that also pay a reasonable economic premium for such high-demand property.

Joe, you dog you, with your budget gimmicks. I caught you, though; better luck with next year.

Budget fudging in '22 created an interesting scenario for golf income and expense. But with a quick look, it becomes obvious that games are afoot. As of this year, Golf is a net loser for the City.

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