11/18/2024
đź“ş New Debrief with The Harris Poll's Mark J Penn and The Hill's Bob Cusack - https://youtu.be/-PirVrKRwrs?si=sKRVqmYdBbofc8h6
The poll, conducted November 13-14, 2024, among 1,732 registered voters, showed that Trump won over Harris by 2 points, driving the core issues of inflation and immigration most salient to the majority of Americans. Republicans closed in on the Democratic advantage of early and mail-in voting. Voters primarily relied on TV news channels for election coverage, followed by social media, and are split on whether coverage was biased. Looking ahead to the new administration, voters are divided on perceptions of Trump but want him to prioritize tackling inflation. Other key findings include:
TRUMP +2 ON HARRIS IN FINAL POLLING; +4 AMONG INDEPENDENTS
50% of voters say they voted for Trump, including 92% of Republicans and 49% of Independents; while 48% of voters say they voted for Harris, including 90% of Democrats and 45% of Independents.
82% of voters say they voted (Democrat: 86%; Republican: 87%; Independent: 70%). Non-voters cited lack of motivation, feeling like their vote didn’t matter, and dislike of the candidates as top reasons they did not vote.
37% of voters voted in-person on Election Day, 32% voted in-person before Election Day, and 31% voted by mail. 56% of the electorate say they made up their mind on who they were voting for before September. 34% of Democrats, 28% of Republicans, and 32% of Independents voted by mail.
11% of the 2024 electorate were first-time voters. 31% of first-time voters decided who they were voting for before September, 24% decided the week of the election, and 20% decided on Election Day.
74% of voters voted on down-ballot races (House of Representatives: 62%; U.S. Senate: 52%; Governor: 34%).
VOTERS MOTIVATED BY ISSUES AND CHANGE
80% of voters say the candidate’s position on issues was the most important factor when it came to casting their vote compared to personal qualities (Harris: 71%; Trump: 90%; Democrat: 76%; Republican: 87%; Independent: 78%;).
The majority of voters said their response to the most important issue facing the country was a main reason for their candidate choice. Of those who said immigration was the most important issue facing the country, 87% said it was one of the main reasons, if not the main reason for their vote (abortion: 79%; inflation: 77%; climate change: 66%). 29% of voters said inflation was the main reason for their vote, 28% pointed to immigration, and 26% pointed to abortion.
76% of voters say they voted for change rather than continuity in how the country is managed (Harris: 60%; Trump: 91%; Democrat: 62%; Republican: 89%; Independent: 78%).
Of key events from the presidential campaign, voters say the Trump vs. Harris debate (36%), Trump surviving the assassination attempt (32%), and Trump declaring no tax on tips (32%) made them more likely to vote for Trump.
TRUMP AND GOP APPROVAL RATING REFLECT ELECTION RESULTS AND DISCONTENT WITH DIRECTION OF COUNTRY, INFLATION, AND IMMIGRATION
Trump’s approval rating as president-elect is at 54%, 12 points higher than Biden’s as president, including 91% of Republicans and 49% of Independents. The majority of male, 18-54 year old, white, Hispanic, urban, and rural voters approve of Trump.
49% of voters approve of the Republican Party’s job (+3 from October), while 44% approve of that of the Democratic Party (-3 from October).
27% of voters say the country is on the right track, down 4 percentage points from October (Democrat: 29%; Republican: 32%; Independent: 17%).
Inflation (45%) and immigration (16%) continue to be the most important issues to voters personally, with inflation a concern across party lines, immigration of more concern for Republicans (28%), and abortion (18%) and climate change (13%) more of a concern for Democrats.
PERCEPTIONS OF TRUMP STILL DIVIDED FOLLOWING THE ELECTION
54% of voters say Trump has been trying to unify rather than divide the country since the election (Democrat: 24%; Republican: 89%; Independent: 50%).
52% of voters believe Trump is a threat to democracy (Democrat: 81%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 45%). 53% say Trump should continue to be tried on criminal charges (Democrat: 87%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 55%).
68% of voters say their greatest hope for the new Trump administration is to end inflation and price increases (Democrat: 57%; Republican: 81%; Independent: 68%), followed by the revitalization of the American economy (43%) and American values (42%).
46% of voters say their greatest fear is Trump behaving like a dictator (Democrat: 74%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 49%). Other top fears among Democrats are irreparable damage to the U.S. government and agencies (56%) and the Trump administration moving too far to the right (55%). The greatest fear among Republicans is massive protests by the left (47%).
Of Trump’s cabinet appointments, more voters favor rather than oppose Susie Wiles (+11), Mike Huckabee (+6), Vivek Ramaswamy (+5), and Marco Rubio (+3). Voters are split on Elon Musk (+1) and oppose Matt Gaetz (-8).
VOTERS FOLLOWED ELECTION NEWS CLOSELY, RELYING ON TV AND SOCIAL MEDIA; BELIEVE MUSK HAD BIGGEST IMPACT
81% of voters say they followed the presidential election somewhat or very closely.
46% of voters say they used TV news channels (Democrat: 45%; Republican: 49%; Independent: 42%), while 23% used social media platforms (Democrat: 26%; Republican: 22%; Independent: 20%) and 10% relied on news outlet websites.
ABC News (36%) and Fox TV News (33%) were the most popular TV channels for election coverage, while Facebook (43%), Google (39%), and YouTube (39%) were the most popular social media platforms for news.
51% of voters say they felt election news was fair while 49% believe it was biased. Among those who felt news was biased, 57% say it was biased against Trump and Republicans (Democrat: 23%; Republicans: 87%; Independent: 51%).
60% of voters say journalists today are mostly practicing advocacy as opposed to unbiased journalism.
Elon Musk (65%), Taylor Swift (63%), and Oprah Winfrey (54%) were the most known endorsements heading into the election. 71% believe Musk’s endorsement had the biggest impact on the election (Joe Rogan: 43%; Taylor Swift: 36%).
42% of voters say Elon Musk’s endorsement had some or significant impact on their vote (Democrat: 32%; Republican: 55%; Independent: 31%), and 37% say the same about Joe Rogan (Democrat: 31%; Republican: 47%; Independent: 28%).
Each month, Stagwell Group CEO and Presidential Pollster Mark Penn shares findings of the latest Har
