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12/10/2023

!!!FLORIAN/BOLAVEN STILL INTENSE WITH INTACT EYE; MIGHT START TO LOSE STRENGTH SOON, ACCORDING TO MODELS!!!
SU5-FLORIAN

Good morning, everyone!
As (Super) Typhoon FLORIAN/BOLAVEN progresses further towards the north, it's arguably already been maintaining the same strength for over 12 hours, not backing down from its STY-8/Category 5 Super Typhoon intensity (Picture 1 [satellite image]). It appears that the eye is currently about 26 km in size, while the "core disk" is kept at 221 km in diameter. The only thing left to say in regards to past events is, thank God it's not making landfall at that strength - although we do hope that people are doing okay after its landfall over the Northern Marianas and Guam. Let's get into the analysis and forecast.

-The analysis [as of 11OCT2023 23:15 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-07T FLORIAN (15W BOLAVEN)
STY-8
151 kts
280 kph
912 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-15W BOLAVEN (07T FLORIAN)
CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON
155 kts
287 kph
903 mb/hPa

-The forecast
•Despite its severe intensity, several models still see FLORIAN intensifying further, as it begins its curve towards the northeast, following the first effects of wind shear, induced by the Jet Stream. While the northern portion of the storm is already interacting with areas of high wind shear, the actual center of the storm is still over an area of considerably low wind shear (5-10 kts). This might aid the storm, as sea surface temperatures beneath the storm are stagnant at 29-30°C. However, it is important to note that, since Typhoon Florian has been pounding with energy for several hours, an eyewall replacement cycle may be imminent. If an ERC were to occur within the next 24 hours, the forecast would be falsified, as tropical cyclones temporarily lose strength while undergoing such cycles.
Either way, after 24 hours, the storm would start to weaken, as a result of the storm center now also interacting with Jet Stream-induced wind shear. By the 60th hour into the future, we believe, the storm will have completed extratropical conversion (Picture 2 [forecast]).

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

11/10/2023

!!!FLORIAN/BOLAVEN FIRST TO REACH "STY-8" STRENGTH, SINCE NEW SCALE INTRODUCED; BREAKS RECORDS FOR THIS YEAR!!!
SU4-FLORIAN

Good evening, everyone!
This is going to be a rather short update. The analysis got updated, alongside the Himawari-8 satellite image, however, forecasts will stay the same until early tomorrow morning.
FLORIAN/BOLAVEN is a ferocious storm by now, after having completed its rapid intensification by fully clearing out its eye.
Its core disk now measures about 280 km in diameter, while its eye comes in at around 46 km. (Picture 1 [satellite image])
The typhoon is one of the record books for this year, alongside ZOE/MAWAR. It is the first to reach our "STY-8" category since we introduced our new scale. STY-8 is just shy of HYP (hyperphoon) at 300 kph.
Let's get into the analysis that we've just prepared for you.

-The analysis
-TIWA
-07T FLORIAN (15W BOLAVEN)
STY-8
154 kts
285 kph
907 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-15W BOLAVEN (07T FLORIAN)
CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON
145 kts
269 kph
915 mb/hPa

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

11/10/2023

Radar loop of Typhoon Florian/Bolaven making landfall over Guam & the Northern Mariana Islands.

10/10/2023

!!!FLORIAN/BOLAVEN MAKES LANDFALL OVER GUAM/NORTHERN MARIANAS; NOW UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION!!!
SU3-FLORIAN

Good morning, everyone!
Since our last update, FLORIAN/BOLAVEN has made landfall over the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam, bringing typhoon-like conditions to the islands during nighttime (Radar loop in a separate post). Since then, the storm has moved on, and undergone rapid intensification, with the storm (whose "core disk" is now 328 km in diameter) now featuring an eye (diam. around 29 km), that's continuously clearing out more and more (Picture 1 [satellite image]). Once it's fully cleared out, chances are high that virtually all of the different analysis techniques will mostly classify it to be either a Category 6 or 7+ Typhoon (Category 4 or -5+ SSHWS-equivalent).
Let's take a look at the current analysis though.

-The analysis [as of 10OCT2023 21:45 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-07T FLORIAN (15W BOLAVEN)
MTY-4
108 kts
200 kph
953 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-15W BOLAVEN (07T FLORIAN)
CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON
100 kts
185 kph
959 mb/hPa

-The forecast
•Although previous warnings of FLORIAN have officially been lifted with this update, and the storm is currently not expected to impact any other pieces of land, it certainly is far from its most intense (Picture 2 [forecast]). From now on, it's forecast to continue due north for quite a while, eventually peaking at STY-7 48 hours from now. However, due to the rapid intensification already brought forward by the storm, it's not wrong to believe that it will intensify up to that level even earlier than predicted.

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

10/10/2023

!!!EMERICO/KOINU DISSIPATED OVER HAINAN, CHINA; FLORIAN/BOLAVEN NOT AS STRONG AS FORECASTED, STILL THREATENING NORTHERN MARIANAS AND GUAM!!!
SU2-FLORIAN

Good morning, everyone!
As stated in the first couple of lines, EMERICO/KOINU has indeed dissipated over the island of Hainan as forecasted, leaving little of the system behind.
Meanwhile, FLORIAN/BOLAVEN has indeed strengthened, though not at the explosive rate that was expected by meteorological models. While its cloud tops sank a little bit, as indicated by satellite imagery - showing higher cloud top temperatures than before -, overall structure in regards to spiraling bands has increased. This was verified by both satellite and radar imagery. (Picture 1 [satellite image] & Picture 2 [radar image]). Let's get into the analysis.

-The analysis [as of 9OCT2023 22:37 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-07T FLORIAN (15W BOLAVEN)
TY-1
61 kts
113 kph
983 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-15W BOLAVEN (07T FLORIAN)
60 kts
111 kph
990 mb/hPa

-The forecast
•As stated in the introductory paragraph, FLORIAN has indeed strengthened a little bit. The storm is currently expected to turn further until it heads due north, picking up strength gradually (Picture 3 [forecast]). Although strengthening a little bit, while continuing its shift from west to north in track, the emphasis is on "a little bit", which is quite a different behavior from what was previously predicted. Because of this change from "rapid" to "barely noticeable" intensification, we had to redefine our warnings accordingly - landfall is just about 6 to 12 hours away now:
❗❗NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS❗❗
❗❗TYPHOON (91-179 KPH)❗❗
✔️SAIPAN
✔️TINIAN
✔️AGUIJAN
✔️ROTA

❗❗TROPICAL STORM (63-90 KPH)❗❗
✔️(NO'OS/FARALLON DE MEDINILLA)
✔️(ANATAHAN)

❗❗GUAM❗❗
❗❗TROPICAL STORM (63-90 KPH)❗❗
✔️GUAM
(Picture 4 [warnings])

WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO ACT BASED UPON STATEMENTS RELEASED BY YOUR LOCAL GOV'T.

DISCLAIMER:
While we do publish warnings, we HIGHLY RECOMMEND that you ALSO CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE, especially in VERY SERIOUS SITUATIONS. WE ARE NOT TRAINED PROFESSIONALS.
Higher-resolution graphics are available on our website! Links are, as always, provided below.

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html
•WARNINGS [zoomed warnings!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/warnings.html
•BULLETINS:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/bulletins.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

08/10/2023

!!!EMERICO/KOINU BARELY ALIVE, EXPECTED TO DIE OUT BEFORE NEXT UPDATE COMES ONLINE; FLORIAN/BOLAVEN SPINS UP OVER MICRONESIA, GIANT IN SIZE, EXPECTED TO MAKE SEVERE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WITHIN 30-42 HOURS!!!
SU5-EMERICO
SU1-FLORIAN

Good morning, everyone!
Since our last update, EMERICO/KOINU has stalled, weakening all the way into a rather unrecognizable Tropical Depression (Picture 1 [satellite image EMERICO]). It really is just a shell of what it used to be, however, before weakening into a Tropical Depression, the storm has actually moved a little further north, brushing Hong Kong with Tropical Storm-force winds. According to a station located in southeastern Hong Kong, winds of up to 83 kph were felt on-site.
Since the storm is forecast, by several models, to not even survive the next 24 hours - and honestly, looking at the overall convective structure of Emerico, it's hard to see how it would have any future ahead of it - therefore there was no sense in creating another forecast chart, just to get that out of the way.
Meanwhile, roughly located in the geographical center of the Western Pacific, a new storm, which could only be described as nothing more than a tropical wave a few days ago, has formed. And it's gigantic. We have designated it "07T FLORIAN", while it's internationally recognized as "15W BOLAVEN".
To put its size into numbers: The storm measures just shy of 2,000 km from its western to its eastern edge. Meanwhile, its intensity as a typhoon (at least according to us) doesn't go unnoticed - its cloud tops' temperature currently reads -85°C. A temperature so cold, it's very rarely seen (pink) on satellite infrared imagery (Picture 2 [satellite image FLORIAN]).
Let's get into the routine part. Let's get into the analysis.

-The analysis [as of 8OCT2023 21:14 UTC & 8OCT2023 21:24 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-06T EMERICO (14W KOINU)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
27 kts
50 kph
1005 mb/hPa

-07T FLORIAN (15W BOLAVEN)
TY-1
57 kts
106 kph
985 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-14W KOINU (06T EMERICO)
CATEGORY 1 TYPHOON
75 kts
139 kph
978 mb/hPa

-15W BOLAVEN (07T FLORIAN)
TROPICAL STORM
50 kts
93 kph
993 mb/hPa

-The forecast
•EMERICO is very much expected to dissipate within the next couple of hours, before we are to publish our next update. Therefore, a new forecast chart was not made.
•FLORIAN's story is a very different one from EMERICO's. Although the storm is expected to slowly turn towards the north, it is also forecast to gradually pick up strength before doing so in a more rapid fashion (Picture 3 [forecast FLORIAN]). With that said, due to its curvature in track, it is almost certainly going to make landfall over the Northern Mariana Islands, more specifically Saipan, Tinian and Aguijan, within the next 30 to 42 hours. Because of that, we have put the following warnings into effect:
❗❗NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS❗❗
❗❗MAJOR TYPHOON (180-229 KPH)❗❗
✔️SAIPAN
✔️TINIAN
✔️AGUIJAN
✔️(ANATAHAN)
❗❗TYPHOON (91-179 KPH)❗❗
✔️ROTA
✔️(NO'OS/FARALLON DE MEDINILLA)
✔️(SARIGAN)
❗❗TROPICAL STORM (63-90 KPH)❗❗
✔️(GUGUAN)
(Picture 4 [warnings FLORIAN])

WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO ACT BASED UPON STATEMENTS RELEASED BY YOUR LOCAL GOV'T.

DISCLAIMER:
While we do publish warnings, we HIGHLY RECOMMEND that you ALSO CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE, especially in VERY SERIOUS SITUATIONS. WE ARE NOT TRAINED PROFESSIONALS.
Higher-resolution graphics are available on our website! Links are, as always, provided below.

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html
•WARNINGS [zoomed warnings!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/warnings.html
•BULLETINS:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/bulletins.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

07/10/2023

!!!EMERICO/KOINU REINTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY; SHRINKS IN SIZE, BUT EYE, YET AGAIN, PRESENT!!!
SU4-EMERICO

Good morning, everyone!
Ever since EMERICO/KOINU made landfall over Taiwan a little while back, the storm has found strength again to become a significant typhoon. While the storm wasn't looking as happy immediately after its landfall, resembling barely anything past a tropical depression at that point, even several hours after its passage over Taiwan - today reveals a completely different story.
Although the storm has shrunk to just 251 km in total diameter, once again, a pretty symmetrical eye has placed itself in the center of the system, revealing that Typhoon Emerico/Koinu has restrengthened quite a way since the last update. A re-intensification process that virtually neither us nor other weather services saw rolling in - at least, not at the time of our latest update.
The eye itself, by the way, measures just about 19 km in diameter. (Picture 1 [satellite image])
Let's get into the analysis.

-The analysis [as of 6OCT2023 23:18 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-06T EMERICO (14W KOINU)
TY-3
91 kts
169 kph
960 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-14W KOINU (06T EMERICO)
CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON
100 kts
185 kph
957 mb/hPa

-The forecast
•Our models reveal a very different trend from the one we published along the latest update. In fact - what our model has come up with this time, in regard to EMERICO's future, makes a whole lot more sense (Picture 2 [forecast]).
Considering the low wind shear in the overall setting that the storm is in, and the fact that sea surface temperatures are increasing ever so slightly in the area that the typhoon is forecast to move into, it should come as no surprise that the system is expected to intensify further.
Although maintaining close proximity to mainland China, as well as Macau and Hong Kong, forecast models do not currently feature any locations that might be impacted by at least Tropical Storm-force winds, most probably due to the reduced size of Emerico.

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

04/10/2023

!!!ENRICO/KOINU/JENNY MAKES LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN, STILL A STRONG TY-3!!!
SU3-ENRICO

Good morning, everyone!
Over the past few hours, ENRICO/KOINU/JENNY has indeed weakened since our last update, with satellite & radar imagery revealing that its eye has now collapsed in on itself, as it makes landfall over the mountainous tip of southern Taiwan (Picture 1 [satellite image]).
Just several hours prior, the Orchid Island weather station had recorded 60 kts/111 kph in sustained winds from the storm - the strongest report up until now.
What's the future hold for the storm? We'll get to that after the analysis.

-The analysis [as of 4OCT2023 22:17 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-06T ENRICO (14W KOINU/JENNY)
TY-3
92 kts
170 kph
966 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-14W KOINU (06T ENRICO/JENNY)
CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON
120 kts
222 kph
940 mb/hPa

-PAGASA
-JENNY (06T ENRICO/14W KOINU)
108 kts
200 kph

-The forecast
•ENRICO's center has, strictly speaking, not made landfall yet. But as the eyewall has already passed over Taiwan, we have already taken down our warnings. Either way, because of the landfall, the storm has already lost strength. According to our forecast (Picture 2 [forecast]), this trend will continue until nothing more of Emerico is left but its remnants, after it has spent a considerable amount of time moving into the South China Sea. With that said, our forecast currently doesn't feature any signs that it'll threaten land twice, therefore prompting us to refrain from issuing warnings.

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

03/10/2023

!!!EMERICO/KOINU/JENNY ADVANCING FURTHER TOWARDS TAIWAN, EYE MAKES COMEBACK!!!
SU2-EMERICO

Good morning, everyone!
Just a little disclaimer - unfortunately, only the analysis came to be today, due to problems related to time. Nonetheless, yesterday's forecast and warnings remain in effect today, as the storm has indeed followed through with our forecast.
Over the past few hours, EMERICO/KOINU/JENNY has reintensified a bit, to the point where it now features an eye again (Picture 1 [satellite image]). Before getting to the future of the storm though, let's dive into the analysis of today.

-The analysis [as of 3OCT2023 21:56 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-06T EMERICO (14W KOINU/JENNY)
MTY-4
105 kts
194 kph
953 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-14W KOINU (06T EMERICO/JENNY)
CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON
90 kts
167 kph
961 mb/hPa

-PAGASA
-JENNY (06T EMERICO/14W KOINU)
CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON
92 kts
171 kph

-The forecast
•As mentioned before, yesterday's forecast still applies for today, since it's been highly accurate so far (Picture 2 [forecast]). Therefore, based on that forecast, the same warnings that I got posted yesterday are still in effect today:
❗❗TAIWAN❗❗
❗❗TYPHOON (91-179 KPH)❗❗
✔️COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TAITUNG COUNTY (TAITUNG, BEINAN), SE FLATLANDS OF PINGTUNG COUNTY (HENGCHUN, CHECHENG)
✔️ORCHID ISL AND GREEN ISL

❗❗TROPICAL STORM (63-90 KPH)❗❗
✔️NORTH-CENTRAL COASTAL REGION OF TAITUNG COUNTY (CHENGGONG), SW FLATLANDS OF PINGTUNG COUNTY (LINBIAN, DONGGAN, ...), LOW-LYING KAOHSIUNG CITY COUNTY
✔️LIUQIU ISL
(Picture 3 [warnings])

WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO ACT BASED UPON STATEMENTS RELEASED BY YOUR LOCAL GOV'T.

DISCLAIMER:
While we do publish warnings, we HIGHLY RECOMMEND that you ALSO CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE, especially in VERY SERIOUS SITUATIONS. WE ARE NOT TRAINED PROFESSIONALS.
Higher-resolution graphics are available on our website! Links are, as always, provided below.

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html
•WARNINGS [zoomed warnings!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/warnings.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

03/10/2023

!!!EMERICO/KOINU/JENNY ADVANCING TOWARDS TAIWAN, STRUGGLING WITH INTENSITY!!!
SU1-EMERICO

Good morning, everyone!
Over the past 24 hours, we at TIWA have noticed a storm of significant intensity making its way towards Taiwan. At the time, that storm still featured an eye, which, over the last 10 hours had slowly started disappearing (Picture 1 [satellite image]). By now, very little is left of it - nonetheless, the right now demarcates our first update on this very typhoon - Emerico (by TIWA)/Koinu (internationally)/Jenny (by PAGASA).
So let's go about our usual business and dive into the analysis:

-The analysis [as of 2OCT2023 21:02 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-06T EMERICO (14W KOINU/JENNY)
MTY-4
113 kts
209 kph
938 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-14W KOINU (06T EMERICO/JENNY)
CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON
110 kts
204 kph
947 mb/hPa

-PAGASA
-JENNY (06T EMERICO/14W KOINU)
CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON
101 kts
188 kph

-The forecast
•Models are kind of mixed on the potential future of EMERICO. However, we have noticed an overall trend (Picture 2 [forecast]). The main track keeps Emerico intensifying for just a little while longer before gradually losing strength, as it approaches Taiwan. This might be due to the fact, that, although sea surface temperatures remain unchanged just off the coast of the country, conditions in regards to wind shear cannot become more favorable than they already are - thus, if anything changes in that regard, it can only change for the worse from the storm's POV. But make no mistake, we still expect typhoon-force winds (91-179 kph) to hit some parts of southern Taiwan, as EMERICO makes landfall about 48 hours from now.
Therefore, we've issued the following warnings:
❗❗TAIWAN❗❗
❗❗TYPHOON (91-179 KPH)❗❗
✔️COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TAITUNG COUNTY (TAITUNG, BEINAN), SE FLATLANDS OF PINGTUNG COUNTY (HENGCHUN, CHECHENG)
✔️ORCHID ISL AND GREEN ISL

❗❗TROPICAL STORM (63-90 KPH)❗❗
✔️NORTH-CENTRAL COASTAL REGION OF TAITUNG COUNTY (CHENGGONG), SW FLATLANDS OF PINGTUNG COUNTY (LINBIAN, DONGGAN, ...), LOW-LYING KAOHSIUNG CITY COUNTY
✔️LIUQIU ISL
(Picture 3 [warnings])

WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO ACT BASED UPON STATEMENTS RELEASED BY YOUR LOCAL GOV'T.

DISCLAIMER:
While we do publish warnings, we HIGHLY RECOMMEND that you ALSO CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE, especially in VERY SERIOUS SITUATIONS. WE ARE NOT TRAINED PROFESSIONALS.
Higher-resolution graphics are available on our website! Links are, as always, provided below.

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html
•WARNINGS [zoomed warnings!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/warnings.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

02/10/2023

Good early morning, everyone!

We will now start with our first update on EMERICO/KOINU/JENNY.
Please note that, because of heavy workloads and illness, we will only be able to forecast 72 hours into the future at the maximum. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

02/10/2023

OUR FIRST UPDATE ON EMERICO/KOINU AIRING EARLY MORNING TOMORROW!

02/09/2023

!!!CHRISTINA/SAOLA DIES OFF WHILE DORIA/HAIKUI/HANNA GRADUALLY PICKS UP STRENGTH - RAPID INTENSIFICATION VERY LIKELY, ACCORDING TO MODELS, PROMPTS NEW WARNINGS!!!
SU8-CHRISTINA
SU5-DORIA

Good morning, everyone!
Over the past 24 hours, CHRISTINA/SAOLA made landfall over Hong Kong, initiating a weakening trend that's been ongoing. The storm is really just a former shell of what it used to be - clouds on its eastern front are no longer present, while the western edge of the storm is fighting to keep its already low cloud tops alive (Picture 1 [satellite image CHRISTINA]). In rather stark contrast to this stands DORIA/HAIKUI/HANNA, as it continuously improves upon its structure, gradually picking up strength (Picture 2 [satellite image DORIA]). Where do we go from here?
Well, before we get into that, you already know what's coming now!

-The analysis [as of 2SEP2023 00:09 UTC & 2SEP2023 00:30 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-04T CHRISTINA (09W SAOLA)
TROPICAL STORM
48 kts
88 kph
988 mb/hPa

-05T DORIA (10W HAIKUI/HANNA)
TY-2
80 kts
148 kph
966 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-09W SAOLA (04T CHRISTINA)
CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON
85 kts
157 kph
952 mb/hPa

-10W HAIKUI (05T DORIA/HANNA)
CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON
85 kts
157 kph
966 mb/hPa

-PAGASA
-HANNA (05T DORIA/10W HAIKUI)
CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON
74 kts
137 kph (120 kph 10-min)

-The forecast
•Our model suggests that CHRISTINA won't be around for a whole lot longer, as it slowly diminishes over southern China (Picture 3 [forecast CHRISTINA]).
•DORIA, on the other hand, is a completely different story. As it continues on its west-northwestward track, Typhoon Doria is expected to rapidly intensify into an STY-6, packing winds of around 230 kph, as it approaches Taiwan (Picture 4 [forecast DORIA]). Although it is expected to decrease in intensity before it hits mainland Taiwan, it's still expected to make landfall over there at TY-3 intensity (178 kph). Because of this, and the fact that the storm is barely 48 hours from making landfall, the following warnings have been issued by us:
❗❗TAIWAN❗❗
❗❗MAJOR TYPHOON (180-229 KPH)❗❗
✔️GREEN ISL

❗❗TYPHOON (91-179 KPH)❗❗
✔️COASTAL REGIONS OF TAITOU AND HUALIEN COUNTY, IN FRONT OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE (CITIES INCLUDE TAITUNG, CHENGGONG, CHANGBIN, AND HUALIEN ITSELF)

❗❗TROPICAL STORM (63-90 KPH)❗❗
✔️LONGITUDINAL VALLEY OF TAITOU AND HUALIEN COUNTY, BETWEEN CENTRAL AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE (CITIES INCLUDE GUANSHAN, CHISHANG, WANRONG AND SHOUFENG)
✔️ORCHID AND SURROUNDING ISLs
(Picture 5 [warnings])

WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO ACT BASED UPON STATEMENTS RELEASED BY YOUR LOCAL GOV'T.

DISCLAIMER:
While we do publish warnings, we HIGHLY RECOMMEND that you ALSO CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE, especially in VERY SERIOUS SITUATIONS. WE ARE NOT TRAINED PROFESSIONALS.
Higher-resolution graphics are available on our website! Links are, as always, provided below.

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html
•WARNINGS [zoomed warnings!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/warnings.html
•BULLETINS:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/bulletins.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

02/09/2023

We're working on our new update now!

01/09/2023

Due to problems related to time caused by events that could not be foreseen, we won't be able to rerun our model for right now. This means in turn that we won't be able to renew our forecast for both storms. Rest assured though that forecasts coming from yesterday are still accurate, in the sense that both forecasts do pretty much resemble the current state of affairs. So, although we cannot provide you with a new forecast, we CAN provide you with the current analysis. Also, we do expect to be able to provide you with a new prediction in today's night hours, if not earlier.
SU7-CHRISTINA
SU4-DORIA

Over the past 24 hours, CHRISTINA/SAOLA and its rather severe intensity have prevailed, with an eye still present as the morning sunrays shine into it from above (Picture 1 [satellite image CHRISTINA]). It is worth mentioning though that the storm eye's diameter has increased to 38.4 km from east to west and to 46.7 km from north to south. Meanwhile, DORIA/HAIKUI has also obtained a third name, "HANNA", by PAGASA. In addition to that, it has also strengthened quite a bit, with its cloud tops reaching higher than ever before (Picture 2 [satellite image DORIA]).

-The analysis [as of 1SEP2023 01:25 UTC & 1SEP2023 01:35 UTC (PHT-8)]
-TIWA
-04T CHRISTINA (09W SAOLA)
STY-6
127 kts
235 kph
930 mb/hPa

-05T DORIA (10W HAIKUI/HANNA)
TY-2
66 kts
122 kph
976 mb/hPa

-INTERNATIONALLY
-09W SAOLA (04T CHRISTINA)
CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON
120 kts
222 kph
935 mb/hPa

-10W HAIKUI (05T DORIA/HANNA)
CATEGORY 1 TYPHOON
70 kts
130 kph
975 mb/hPa

-PAGASA
-HANNA (05T DORIA/10W HAIKUI)
CATEGORY 1 TYPHOON
67 kts
125 kph (110 kph 10-min)

Other products, such as warnings, bulletins, and yesterday's forecast, will remain online and viewable on our website.

WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO ACT BASED UPON STATEMENTS RELEASED BY YOUR LOCAL GOV'T.

DISCLAIMER:
While we do publish warnings, we HIGHLY RECOMMEND that you ALSO CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE, especially in VERY SERIOUS SITUATIONS. WE ARE NOT TRAINED PROFESSIONALS.
Higher-resolution graphics are available on our website! Links are, as always, provided below.

IMPORTANT LINKS
•INFORMATION:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/information.html
•TRACKER & FORECAST [zoomed forecast!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/tracker-and-forecast-positions.html
•WARNINGS [zoomed warnings!]:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/warnings.html
•BULLETINS:
https://typhooninformationandwarningagency.weebly.com/bulletins.html

STAY SAFE! Your TIWA-team.

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Videos

Radar loop of Typhoon Florian/Bolaven making landfall over Guam & the Northern Mariana Islands.

Radar data from Guam (PGUA), provided through the NWS.

Lightning activity inside Typhoon Zoe/Mawar.

Video 2 [Ishigaki, 10:42 local]

Video 1 [Ishigaki, 05:12 local]

Typhoon Valerie/Hinnamnor on Chichijima, Ogasawara Islands.

We're back! Unfortunately, we weren't able to discuss Man-Yi further. Our admin has spent the last few days lying in hospital. We are here to give you information on a drought that is now taking place in the Northwestern Pacific. Except the following system, nothing else is currently active. The storm has a really good structure, but doesn't seem to have a really big future planned. It is predicted to lose its form in a few hours from now on in fact. It is said to cross the Marianas as just some kind of rain shower cloud shifting from East to West. Either way, Stay safe, Your TIWA-team.

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