Midwest Storm Hunters

12/23/2025

For those traveling to California a major flood event is likely over the next few days. Significant flash flooding risk is in place.

Here is the latest update from WPC on the California atmospheric river event where a moderate to high risk of flash flooding is anticipated for southern California on Wednesday Christmas Eve. Please stay safe through the upcoming Christmas holiday. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key.../LatestKeyMessage_1.png

12/23/2025

Minnesota year end tornado review. Minnesota saw above average tornado reports for 2025 largely in part to a few active days in June. Since I predicted near average numbers back in February I was off on the forecast here. I'm still searching for my first successful tornado chase in Minnesota. Maybe next year I can intercept an open field tor in the Gopher state.

12/22/2025

There will be a sharp temperature gradient across the region on Christmas day. The trend has been to move the warmest temperatures south. However, nearly everyone south of I-90 will be above average with the really warm air likely near and south of I-70.
With the above average temperatures no notable travel disruptions are expected through Christmas day. 🎄

12/22/2025

Next up on the tornado forecast review will be North and South Dakota. (Just a note, the preliminary reports maps I will be using for these reviews may differ from local reports as the preliminary reports number will be updated after the year is over.)

Probably the biggest forecast bust was North Dakota that saw many events overachieve. In June we saw the first EF5 in over a decade in ND. The 72 preliminary reports (local NWS official report is near 80) sets a State record by a large margin. Incredible year of tornadoes there. I only predicted around 2 dozen tornadoes here.

Meanwhile South Dakota was much more tame and slightly below average in total. I also was just over on my estimate. SD had some of the most photogenic tornadoes of the year over the summer months.

12/22/2025

Over the next week or two I'm going to be reviewing my tornado forecast from February State by State to compare to actual reports so far to see how well or not the forecast verified.

First up, Montana.
I predicted around 4 tornado reports for Montana back in February. YTD the number of reports sits at 6 which is right around the 20 year average. None of the reports classified as strong tornadoes. Overall a decent verification.

Tomorrow we'll go over South and North Dakota.

12/21/2025

Today is the winter solstice. First day of winter. Today will mark the shortest day in terms of daylight in the northern hemisphere due to the earth's north pole tilting at its furthest angle away from the sun.

From here forward we will begin gaining day light everyday until we reach the summer solstice in June.

12/19/2025

A good portion of the Midwest will be able to spend Christmas day outside.

Temperatures look to be 10 to as much as 35 degrees above normal. This should yield widespread high temperatures in the 40s in the far north to near 70 for parts of Illinois and Missouri.

12/18/2025

There is a brief window tomorrow afternoon/early evening across parts of MN/WI/IA/IL/MI for snow squall potential.

A snow squall is a short lived but intense burst of snow that causes significant travel impacts and greatly reduced visibility. They generally last 30 to 45 minutes or so. Think of it as a severe thunderstorm warning.

With tomorrow's setup a few intense snow squalls are possible especially across the Wisconsin vicinity. These could produce near zero visibility, a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation, and gusty winds over 40mph. In addition temperatures will be falling rapidly so a flash freeze is also very possible. This occurs when melted snow/water on roadways quickly freezes when temperatures drop during a snow squall or after the passage of a cold front.

12/17/2025

A very marginal risk for an isolated severe wind gust Thursday.

A strong cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley vicinity Thursday. Some instability with modest moisture could allow for a line of weak thunderstorms. A few severe wind gusts are possible with this activity as it moves through S Illinois/Indiana into the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity by late afternoon.

12/15/2025

White Christmas trends.

We are starting to get closer to more reliable data in terms of probabilities for a white Christmas (1"+).

Looking at today's ensembles of the Euro and GFS, the Euro has a cooler temperature trend the next 10 days compared to the GFS. This is an important detail to iron out as there will be very minimal snow chances the next 10 days across the region, meaning whatever snow pack we currently have will likely need to survive periods of warmer temperatures in order to make the 25th a white holiday.

In general the vicinity between I-90 and I-80 will be the cut off of a white Christmas and a brown one. This will likely be much closer to I-90 than I-80 in my opinion. We'll see. Those north of I-90 have a good chance of keeping 1"+ of snow depth through the 25th.

12/14/2025

Another strong low pressure system will traverse the upper Midwest by mid week.

This one will bring more strong winds and a rapid temperature drop behind it. There will likely be rain, snow and mix of precipitation with this system but the most impactful element will be the wind/ blowing snow and a flash freeze with any moisture left on surfaces behind the cold front.

We could see some severe thunderstorms in the mid Mississippi Valley region as well. We'll update as needed this week.

12/13/2025

After the cold blast this weekend, a period of above average temperatures is expected middle of next week. Thereafter temperatures look closer to average or slightly below around and after Christmas. No major systems over the next 3 to 4 days.