USVI Weather Guy

13/10/2024

Watching for possible development region (~ 30%) -- and general tracks from American & European models towards the USVI late in week. No threat for a hurricane at this time, both stay weak systems. 🧐

29/08/2024

Good Morning USVI'ers! On the horizon.....Tropical Disturbance #1 increased chances for development now 40% over next 7 days - a weaker system tracks south over central Caribbean, stronger system closer to northern islands. Watching Tropical Disturbance #2 off the coast of Africa already has alot of convection. Some wind shear issues to overcome overall. Eyes on where Bermuda high sets up for steering. Stay tuned

27/08/2024

Good Morning, USVI'ers! Heading into September, important to remember 2/3 of the tropical cyclone season still remains based on climatology. Hint of activity on/around Sept 3rd approaching Caribbean region. Currently low chance of development. Models suggest additional activity for possible development in its wake. Next Atlantic named storm will be FRANCINE. Stay aware and stay prepared!

13/08/2024

“Hurricane Watch” JUST posted for the entire USVI with now strengthening 50mph TS Ernesto. Expect Tropical Storm conditions, but plan for Cat 1 Hurricane conditions just to be safe, especially for northern islands of STT and STJ, with higher wind gusts in the higher elevations throughout the territories. Secure all exterior light weight loose objects, and stay off the roads in preparation for heavy rain, localized flash flooding and mudslides, which can be life threatening. Stay safe USVI!

13/08/2024

Good Morning, USVI! Tropical Storm Ernesto, currently located over the northern windward islands with sustained winds of 40mph, will quickly make its way toward the USVI today and tonight. Some strengthening may occur upon its approach to the USVI as the storm begins to affect the region with gusty winds and heavy rains that could result in flash flooding and mud slides starting this afternoon into Wednesday. Take precautions now. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect!

12/08/2024

Confidence is building that potential Tropical Storm "Ernesto" will impact the USVI on Wednesday, but NOT expecting to develop into a hurricane upon approach -- BUT, all continue to monitor for any rapid development! Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the northern windward islands and the USVI and Puerto Rico.

11/08/2024

Good SUNDAY, Morning USVI! Here's the latest on approaching tropical Invest 98L - 70% chance for development within 48 hours. EURO model still suggests "Tropical Storm Ernesto" as it nears USVI while the GFS still strengthens system to a Category 1 Hurricane in region with a tug slightly to the north from previous --- continue to monitor further trends for projected path. Timing for USVI is late Tuesday night into Wednesday! Expect heavy rain, flooding with the potential for mud slides. Marine interests should be on alert. Likely to see Watches and/or Warnings issued later today. Still a tough forecast until system gets a little better organized in order for models to latch onto a more defined center of circulation.

10/08/2024

Current Satellite look at what could become "Ernesto" over the next few days. Keeping an eye, USVI!

10/08/2024

Good Saturday Morning, USVI! NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center increases chances of tropical cyclone development to 80% during next 7-days! Latest EURO model suggests Tropical Storm near USVI, GFS model indicates ~ category 1 Hurricane near USVI. Timing for models is Wednesday 8/14, 00Z or 7PM AST. If becomes a TS, name will be Ernesto! Stay informed and prepare now

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09/08/2024

Hello USVIer's! Tropical Cyclone development probability up to 60% over the next 7 days. NOTE - system could impact USVI around Tuesday of next week -- well under the 7-day window just to be on alert!

Current NHC forecast here AND the current satellite of our disturbance over the central tropical Atlantic! NOTE -- Models across the board are NOT in agreement on strength of system upon approach to USVI. Until there is a defined center of circulation, the models will have a tough time! Until then... 🕶🤿🏖🍍🍹

08/08/2024

Keep an eye, USVI! Early to Mid Next Week!

02/07/2024

02/07/2024

Earliest Category 5 in recorded history! Beryl now has sustained winds of 160 mph with minimal Pressure at 938 mb. 😳

02/07/2024

We survived Hurricane Beryl. Now what? It's heart wrenching and inspiring to hear from residents in Carriacou who have lost everything in this powerful hur...

01/07/2024

CAT 4 plowed through St. Vincent and the Grenadines with wind gusts of 175 MPH 🙏 🥲 😱

01/07/2024

Good Morning, VI'ers! Here is the latest 8AM! Major will track WELL south of the USVI overnight tonight. Expect increasing easterly winds this evening through Tuesday ~ 25 mph with higher wind gusts especially in the higher elevations. Rain chances associated with typical tropical weather environment, not from Beryl. MAIN threat is to Marine interests -- life threatening rip currents, especially on St. Croix's south facing shores. No dips through Tuesday 🥹 A HIGH SURF advisory is in effect through Tuesday 6pm.

29/06/2024

is official — and continues to strengthen tracking towards the Caribbean. Hurricane Warning issued for and Hurricane Watches posted for the central and southern Windward Islands. Strong high pressure to the north continues to drive Beryl more westward and should steer well south of the USVI. Monitoring…….

28/06/2024

Official track forecast - Expected to become before reaching the southern windward islands, but tracking well south of the USVI! Continuing to monitor....