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USVI Weather Guy To inform residents and visitors within the U.S. Virgin Islands of potential and/or imminent tropical
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Good Morning USVI'ers!  On the horizon.....Tropical Disturbance  #1 increased chances for development now 40% over next ...
29/08/2024

Good Morning USVI'ers! On the horizon.....Tropical Disturbance #1 increased chances for development now 40% over next 7 days - a weaker system tracks south over central Caribbean, stronger system closer to northern islands. Watching Tropical Disturbance #2 off the coast of Africa already has alot of convection. Some wind shear issues to overcome overall. Eyes on where Bermuda high sets up for steering. Stay tuned

Good Morning, USVI'ers!  Heading into September, important to remember 2/3 of the tropical cyclone season still remains ...
27/08/2024

Good Morning, USVI'ers! Heading into September, important to remember 2/3 of the tropical cyclone season still remains based on climatology. Hint of activity on/around Sept 3rd approaching Caribbean region. Currently low chance of development. Models suggest additional activity for possible development in its wake. Next Atlantic named storm will be FRANCINE. Stay aware and stay prepared!

“Hurricane Watch” JUST posted for the entire USVI with now strengthening 50mph TS Ernesto.  Expect Tropical Storm condit...
13/08/2024

“Hurricane Watch” JUST posted for the entire USVI with now strengthening 50mph TS Ernesto. Expect Tropical Storm conditions, but plan for Cat 1 Hurricane conditions just to be safe, especially for northern islands of STT and STJ, with higher wind gusts in the higher elevations throughout the territories. Secure all exterior light weight loose objects, and stay off the roads in preparation for heavy rain, localized flash flooding and mudslides, which can be life threatening. Stay safe USVI!

Good Morning, USVI!  Tropical Storm Ernesto, currently located over the northern windward islands with sustained winds o...
13/08/2024

Good Morning, USVI! Tropical Storm Ernesto, currently located over the northern windward islands with sustained winds of 40mph, will quickly make its way toward the USVI today and tonight. Some strengthening may occur upon its approach to the USVI as the storm begins to affect the region with gusty winds and heavy rains that could result in flash flooding and mud slides starting this afternoon into Wednesday. Take precautions now. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect!

Confidence is building that potential Tropical Storm "Ernesto" will impact the USVI on Wednesday, but NOT expecting to d...
12/08/2024

Confidence is building that potential Tropical Storm "Ernesto" will impact the USVI on Wednesday, but NOT expecting to develop into a hurricane upon approach -- BUT, all continue to monitor for any rapid development! Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the northern windward islands and the USVI and Puerto Rico.

Good SUNDAY, Morning USVI!  Here's the latest on approaching tropical Invest 98L - 70% chance for development within 48 ...
11/08/2024

Good SUNDAY, Morning USVI! Here's the latest on approaching tropical Invest 98L - 70% chance for development within 48 hours. EURO model still suggests "Tropical Storm Ernesto" as it nears USVI while the GFS still strengthens system to a Category 1 Hurricane in region with a tug slightly to the north from previous --- continue to monitor further trends for projected path. Timing for USVI is late Tuesday night into Wednesday! Expect heavy rain, flooding with the potential for mud slides. Marine interests should be on alert. Likely to see Watches and/or Warnings issued later today. Still a tough forecast until system gets a little better organized in order for models to latch onto a more defined center of circulation.

10/08/2024

Current Satellite look at what could become "Ernesto" over the next few days. Keeping an eye, USVI!

Good Saturday Morning, USVI!  NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center increases chances of tropical cyclone development to 80...
10/08/2024

Good Saturday Morning, USVI! NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center increases chances of tropical cyclone development to 80% during next 7-days! Latest EURO model suggests Tropical Storm near USVI, GFS model indicates ~ category 1 Hurricane near USVI. Timing for models is Wednesday 8/14, 00Z or 7PM AST. If becomes a TS, name will be Ernesto! Stay informed and prepare now

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Hello USVIer's!  Tropical Cyclone development probability up to 60% over the next 7 days.  NOTE - system could impact US...
09/08/2024

Hello USVIer's! Tropical Cyclone development probability up to 60% over the next 7 days. NOTE - system could impact USVI around Tuesday of next week -- well under the 7-day window just to be on alert!

Current NHC forecast here AND the current satellite of our disturbance over the central tropical Atlantic! NOTE -- Models across the board are NOT in agreement on strength of system upon approach to USVI. Until there is a defined center of circulation, the models will have a tough time! Until then... 🕶🤿🏖🍍🍹

Keep an eye, USVI!  Early to Mid Next Week!
08/08/2024

Keep an eye, USVI! Early to Mid Next Week!

02/07/2024
Earliest Category 5 in recorded history!  Beryl now has sustained winds of 160 mph with minimal Pressure at 938 mb. 😳
02/07/2024

Earliest Category 5 in recorded history! Beryl now has sustained winds of 160 mph with minimal Pressure at 938 mb. 😳

02/07/2024

We survived Hurricane Beryl. Now what? It's heart wrenching and inspiring to hear from residents in Carriacou who have lost everything in this powerful hur...

01/07/2024

CAT 4 plowed through St. Vincent and the Grenadines with wind gusts of 175 MPH 🙏 🥲 😱

Good Morning, VI'ers!  Here is the latest 8AM! Major   will track WELL south of the USVI overnight tonight.  Expect incr...
01/07/2024

Good Morning, VI'ers! Here is the latest 8AM! Major will track WELL south of the USVI overnight tonight. Expect increasing easterly winds this evening through Tuesday ~ 25 mph with higher wind gusts especially in the higher elevations. Rain chances associated with typical tropical weather environment, not from Beryl. MAIN threat is to Marine interests -- life threatening rip currents, especially on St. Croix's south facing shores. No dips through Tuesday 🥹 A HIGH SURF advisory is in effect through Tuesday 6pm.

  is official — and continues to strengthen tracking towards the Caribbean.  Hurricane Warning issued for   and Hurrican...
29/06/2024

is official — and continues to strengthen tracking towards the Caribbean. Hurricane Warning issued for and Hurricane Watches posted for the central and southern Windward Islands. Strong high pressure to the north continues to drive Beryl more westward and should steer well south of the USVI. Monitoring…….

Official track forecast - Expected to become   before reaching the southern windward islands, but tracking well south of...
28/06/2024

Official track forecast - Expected to become before reaching the southern windward islands, but tracking well south of the USVI! Continuing to monitor....

Friday June 28th Update: I95L shows signs of strengthening (90% chance of development) which should become TD/TS Beryl t...
28/06/2024

Friday June 28th Update: I95L shows signs of strengthening (90% chance of development) which should become TD/TS Beryl today or tomorrow -- The system is expected to to continue strengthening further as it passes to the south of the USVI on Tuesday July 2nd. Continue to monitor over next several days for deviations in track forecast. At this time, all marine interest take necessary precautions.

27/06/2024

Invest 95L showing "some" circulation on satellite this afternoon.

27/06/2024

There will be a Tsunami Siren Test on the island of St. Croix, today June 27, 2024 at 2:00 PM, Do You Know The Tone?

If you hear the siren in your area, we would love your feedback! Comment below or contact us at 340-773-2233.

Thurs. June 27th RE: Invest 95L in central Atlantic!  Increased probability of tropical cyclone development at 70% w/in ...
27/06/2024

Thurs. June 27th RE: Invest 95L in central Atlantic! Increased probability of tropical cyclone development at 70% w/in 7 days! Forecast to track SOUTH of USVI on or about July 2nd, but need to watch -- still too far out and no well defined center of circulation. GREAT opportunity to make your 2024 Hurricane Preparedness Kit NOW! See here USVI: https://www.vi.gov/proper-emergency-kit-essential-to-hurricane-preparedness/

NHC increases probability of tropical development from 20% to 40%, future location likley south of USVI region on or abo...
26/06/2024

NHC increases probability of tropical development from 20% to 40%, future location likley south of USVI region on or about July 2nd, weak to TS strength system is current thinking.

26/06/2024
Today's 0Z Forecast Models for European and American both sniffing "possible" tropical system in the same general area s...
26/06/2024

Today's 0Z Forecast Models for European and American both sniffing "possible" tropical system in the same general area south of the USVI, same time period, Tuesday July 2nd - weak system or TS? 🧐

Early Caribbean Season Start? 🤔
26/06/2024

Early Caribbean Season Start? 🤔

Rainfall FORECAST for USVI from Hurricane Tammy, TIMING  - Saturday PM into Sunday with the potential for higher amounts...
20/10/2023

Rainfall FORECAST for USVI from Hurricane Tammy, TIMING - Saturday PM into Sunday with the potential for higher amounts in localized areas (up to 4").

11AM Friday Update - Hurricane Tammy with 75 mph max sustained winds is tracking WNW with eventual turn to the NW and th...
20/10/2023

11AM Friday Update - Hurricane Tammy with 75 mph max sustained winds is tracking WNW with eventual turn to the NW and then Northward about 100+ miles East of the USVI before exiting region. Timing for USVI is Saturday late afternoon into the overnight hours. No watches or warnings have been issued for USVI. Primary threat is for HEAVY RAIN, 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches. Localized flash flooding and mudslides possible with enhanced surf swells and rip current conditions likely. Stay tuned to local authorities or NHC for updates or changes to the forecast.

20/10/2023

Tammy is NOW a hurricane 🌊 The maximum sustained winds are 75 mph with higher gusts. Next official advisory is 11 AM AST.

Good Friday Morning (8a), USVI!  Well-needed rain for the USVI coming tomorrow?  Tropical Storm TAMMY will make it's clo...
20/10/2023

Good Friday Morning (8a), USVI! Well-needed rain for the USVI coming tomorrow? Tropical Storm TAMMY will make it's closest approach to the USVI tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening. Most major models are in agreement storm will pass about 100+ miles to the EAST of the USVI, give or take - Expect strong gusty winds mainly from the north (especially in higher elevations) with heavy rain and possible flash and urban flooding, including mudslides throughout the region. Currently, a 40% chance exists for winds greater than 39 mph wind for one minute duration. Pressure has dropped slightly overnight indicating some strengthening -- sustained wind speeds are up to 65 mph --- and expected to further intensify to Hurricane status later today/tonight as we have already begun to see a more well-defined inner core. No watches or warnings have been issued for the USVI. Say tuned to local authorities in case any any updates are issued. Marine interests take necessary precautions. No dips in the ocean this weekend as rip currents will be present 😢

Hello VIers!  2PM AST Update:  STILL no major shift westward in the NHC "cone of uncertainty" towards the USVI on latest...
19/10/2023

Hello VIers! 2PM AST Update: STILL no major shift westward in the NHC "cone of uncertainty" towards the USVI on latest NHC update 👍 Was tracking WNW at 11am and then West movement at 2PM --- so need to see if this trend continues which could change cone toward USVI....

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