Storm Chasing And Research Society

09/11/2024

Viewed the Aurora in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia tonight around 730pm as the substorm hit. Chance is there through morning.

Kp 3.67
Bz -12

Remember yall, KP isn't the tell all!

06/11/2024

Hurricane Rafael has rapidly intensified into a high end CAT 2 Hurricane and is expected to slam into Western Cuba - likely as a Major CAT 3 Hurricane. This will bring a flooding and landslides, along with dangerous winds capable of demolishing weak shelters like trailers and mobile homes, and turning debris into shrapnel.

Rafael will briefly lose strength as it interacts with land, possibly reintensify into a CAT 2 or 3 Strong to major hurricane before encountering heavy shear and an enviornment likely to disrupt the health of the storm.

The Gulf of Mexico is often times a breeder for rapid intensification in Hurricanes, but as we are farther into the season, dynamics are a little different. Hot water on the surface is not expected to defeat the upwell likely to be brought on by this Hurricanes, which will be much cooler water. This will (likely) decrease Rafaels intensification process.

That last part is the good news.
Now the bad news.

After moving into a hostile environment, we are likely dealing with a heavy rainmaker of a Tropical Storm or CAT 1 Hurricane, which could impact anywhere from Central Mexico, to Brownsville/Houston, TX to New Orleans, LA. It's hard to tell at this point. My way too early guess, and fear, is Houston on Tuesday night, for a few reasons that are pointless to go into right now, it's just an educated guess.

One way or the other, we have a Hurricane moving into the gulf. Unlike other storms, this will not turn into a CAT 4 or 5 in the gulf, and certainly will be nothing close to it upon Mexican/U.S impact. But this does not mean we should disregard it. We've seen what heavy rainmaking systems can do, especially in already saturated areas. Plan out what supplies to have incase Flash Flooding is imminent. Plan where you can go and how fast you can get everybody and the pets in a safe area and on the way to this location. Have a way to evacuate your farm animals if you have them.

PRACTICE THIS PLAN. TWICE OR MORE!
A plan is pointless without practice.

And most importantly, do not panic! Rafael will be on its way, but you can have a plan.

05/11/2024

05/11/2024

Significant Flash Flooding tonight from Tyler, TX all the way to St. Louis, MO - with the exception of a few counties around the Texarkana area. From what we're hearing, several communities are experiencing unprecedented flooding like they haven't seen before.

05/11/2024

PDS TORNADO WARNING for a DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO ON THE GROUND in Southern Missouri heading THROUGH CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY, MO AT 45MPH

COMMUNITIES WITHIN CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND MOUNTAIN GROVE, MO GET UNDERGROUND NOW. If you cannot get underground, be in the lowest most interior room of a sturdy shelter IMMEDIATELY!

05/11/2024

Rapidly intensifying tornado warned cluster of storms with Tornado capability has made its way into Southern Missouri, moving just north of Theodosia, MO now. Storms are moving NE at 45mph

05/11/2024

Eyes on this severe warned cell moving NE thrive Vanderport and Wickes, AR as tornado capability is increasing.

Velocity showing rotation is intensifying as it will head over Cove and into Mena shortly.

Monitoring these developments.

04/11/2024

Dangerous Tornado warned supercell moving NNE into Avery, TX at about 40mph

04/11/2024

Another tornado warning for a storm complex with a potentially rain wrapped tornado moving into the Springdale, AR area. Circulation appears to be moving almost due north within this system.

04/11/2024

CATASTROPHIC SITUATION UNFOLDING FOR WATTS COMMUNITY, OK as a direct hit from a large and extremely dangerous Tornado is imminent. This will soon cross the Arkansas border and move towards Springdale/Rogers and communities nearby. Booking it northeast at 45mph.

Be in your safe place immediately if you are in Watts Community, OK

03/11/2024

Oh man.

Two Tornado Warnings with relatively strong rotation signatures moving into the Oklahoma City Metro area.

One just east of the Chikasha area moving northeast at 45+mph. This storm has a chance to make it into Southwest Oklahoma City - near areas heavily impacted this morning.

The other just south of El Reno, heading towards Yukon at 45mph.

03/11/2024

Not liking these embedded rotations nearing Limestone, Valley Park and Claremont, OK just behind the main wind complex moving through. Stay weather aware into these morning hours!

03/11/2024

Radar confirming tornado just north of Kellysville, OK MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50-60mph, possibly faster.

03/11/2024

TORNADO WARNING MOVING INTO THE TULSA, OK AREA

03/11/2024

TORNADO WARNING MOVING INTO THE TULSA, OK METRO AREA