05/31/2025
Hurricane Forecasts and Your Family: Why Planning Still Matters Most
Written By Haskell Moore
Why Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts Matter—And Why They Don’t
With hurricane season officially commencing on June 1st, the predictions are rolling in, and so are the reactions from professionals and individuals alike. Some people watch the tropical weather forecasts daily, while others dismiss the forecasts entirely. But whether you’re glued to the news or barely paying attention, one thing is certain: this is the time when the tropics historically become active. That’s why understanding what seasonal forecasts can and can’t tell us is just the first step in preparing with purpose.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook on Thursday, May 22nd, and they are once again expecting it to be an above-average season in terms of tropical activity. They are forecasting 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 and above). Another frequently cited authority, Colorado State University, predicts 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. In comparison, the 1991-2020 average is 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes. Of course, both entities will be updating these numbers throughout the season to factor in changing climatic conditions such as sea surface temperatures, blowing African dust, and the all-important wind shear.
I had the opportunity to speak with Bill Read, former Director of the National Hurricane Center, to get his take on the forecast. Bill isn’t a big fan of seasonal forecasts, but he acknowledges that they, among other things, serve as a reminder that hurricane season is just around the corner.
He pointed to the 2010 season as a perfect example of why long-range forecasts don’t always reflect what happens at ground level. That year saw an extremely active Atlantic season, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes—numbers that closely resembled the devastating 2005 season that brought us Katrina and Rita. Many experts feared history would repeat itself. But in the end, not a single hurricane made landfall in the United States. The activity was there, but the actual impact to the U.S. was minimal.
By comparison, 1983 was one of the slowest seasons on record with only 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. However, one of those storms was Hurricane Alicia, which devastated the Houston-Galveston region and resulted in 17 deaths and more than three thousand injured.
The key takeaway is that while these predictions are valuable to certain industries—such as insurance companies, offshore energy producers, and others impacted on a broad scale—yet they carry little practical weight for the average person.
At the conclusion of our discussion, I asked Bill what he planned to do differently this year based on the 2025 predictions. Aside from what he does every year—preparing as if this will be the year for a hurricane—he said he might “self-evacuate” even for a low-end storm. He referenced the impact of Hurricane Beryl, which struck Houston in 2024, and the toll it took on some of his friends. He emphasized that he’d prefer not to endure another hurricane, or the long power outages that often follow.
Reasons To Prepare Early
There are countless reasons to begin your hurricane preparations early, but I believe the following three stand out the most.
First, getting started early will save time. As a hurricane gets closer to landfall, there is typically panic shopping as hordes of people rush to the stores to buy up critical supplies. It’s not unusual to end up going to multiple locations and waiting in long lines to acquire batteries, flashlights, coolers, gas cans, bottled water, and other important items. By making these purchases early, you can beat the crowds and take advantage of the wide selections of products before shelves are picked over. With the abundance of online retailers, you can even complete much of your shopping without leaving your home.
Second, preparing early allows you to save money. Shopping early allows you to take advantage of sales—tax-free holidays, Black Friday deals, and other money-saving opportunities. Something that many people don’t realize is that retailers can raise their prices substantially on key items when a storm threatens their area. For example, I acquired plywood to cover my home windows and cut it to size in May of 2008, before the start of hurricane season, at a total cost of roughly $500. My neighbor, in a comparably sized home with approximately the same number of windows, waited until Hurricane Ike was bearing down on Houston. His total cost for the same supplies was nearly $1,500!
Third, your personal safety is a very compelling reason to prepare early. Emotions can run high as a hurricane nears landfall, and panic often sets in. I’ve long said that gasoline is the most emotionally charged commodity before and after a storm—and sadly, altercations over fuel have sometimes turned deadly. Items like bread, milk, baby diapers, water, and—as we learned during the pandemic—even toilet paper can trigger dangerous and irrational behavior when supplies run short. Starting early helps you avoid the chaos and may even save you from a dangerous altercation.
Hurricane Preparations: Where to Begin?
I’ve been conducting hurricane preparedness seminars and webinars since 1995, and the question I’m asked most often is this: Where should someone begin to logically and methodically prepare for a hurricane? I guess my background in Information Technology and project management comes into play in my approach, so I treat my preparedness activities just like a project plan.
The lists I recommend are simply a starting point to help guide you in creating your own personalized preparedness plan. No generic list can account for every household’s unique needs, so it’s essential to think through the specific requirements for you and your family. Take time to fine-tune your plan with input from everyone in your household. Also, don’t forget to account for those with special needs, and of course, your pets.
I like to work with three lists that I created in Microsoft Excel (or the free spreadsheet, Google Sheets). This allows me to change the priority of the items on the lists, then sort them after I make my changes. However, if you’re not comfortable doing this on a computer, a pencil and notepad will also work.
The first list is your personal “Hurricane Preparedness Action Plan.” This includes activities you wish to complete a few days before tropical storm force winds are expected. Be as realistic as possible with your timings, and I even recommend a partial or full dry run to ensure your timings are accurate.
Sample Hurricane Preparedness Action Plan
The next list you should have is the “Advance Preparedness & Purchase List.” This list includes both early-season tasks around the house and any major purchases you need to complete before hurricane season intensifies. Do you have tree limbs hanging over your roof? Do you need a few more gas cans and extra oil for your generator? Is your vehicle ready for a grueling, long evacuation in the summer heat? All of these tasks should be on your prioritized list. It may also help to list the cost for each of these items or activities before assigning a priority, since costs may be a determining factor.
Sample Advance Preparedness & Purchase List
The third list I rely on is a simple Grocery List. Like the others, it should be prioritized based on need. Begin acquiring high-priority, non-perishable items well in advance of a storm, or ideally, before hurricane season even begins. I recommend avoiding new or strange foods and just sticking with food items and supplies you’re familiar with and normally consume. After all, in the middle of a hurricane is a bad time to discover you’re highly allergic to one of the products you’ve stocked up on. The other advantage to this approach is you can just add these foods to your normal grocery rotation, and at the end of hurricane season, either consume them or donate them to a local food pantry.
If you do have to go to the store for last-minute supplies, your goal should be to get in and out of the store as quickly as possible. As you shop, when you spot an item you know you’ll need, the time to put it in your cart is right then, not later. This is especially important if you’ve delayed purchasing key supplies like flashlights, batteries, or bottled water. For example, you might see several pallets of bottled water at the front of the store and decide to add those to your shopping cart after finishing the rest of your shopping, only to return and find all the water is gone. Yes, I’ve personally experienced this, and it happened in the span of 20 minutes!
And here’s a final pro tip: After the remnants of Hurricane Harvey flooded the Houston area, some of the last items to return to store shelves were candy, soft drinks, chips, and other snack items. Don’t assume even the small comforts will be there later—grab them when you can.
You can view and download several sample checklists in Excel and PDF format at HideFromTheWind.com in the “Checklists” tab.
Sample Grocery List
Tools I Trust—Discounts You Can Use
Preparedness isn’t just about gear; it’s about timing, planning, and peace of mind. When you act early, you’re not just beating the rush, you’re protecting your family from the chaos that often follows when supply chains strain and emotions run high.
To help readers take that first step, I’m proud to share two exclusive discount codes provided by companies that support hurricane preparedness efforts year-round:
Use PREPARE30 at the FirmanPowerEquipment.com website to receive 30% off select Firman generators, which are ideal for keeping your home powered when the grid goes down. For example, the Firman WH03242 is an excellent choice for those looking for a portable dual-fuel generator that packs a lot of power into a small package.
Use HURRICANE10 at MAGLITE.com to receive 10% off any Maglite flashlight. These are trusted lighting tools that have become a staple in emergency kits worldwide. I’ve tested over two hundred flashlights, some costing hundreds of dollars, and the MAGLITE ML300L 4D LED Long-running flashlight is the best hurricane preparedness flashlight I’ve ever evaluated.
These codes are part of my ongoing partnership with companies that take preparedness seriously. If these tools are part of your plan, now’s a smart time to act.
Remember to visit HideFromTheWind.com for more tips and important links. And as always, stay safe, stay ready, and prepare with purpose!
