Crown Weather Services

01/22/2025

Posted Early Wednesday Afternoon 1/22/2025: *** NORTHERN GULF COAST & SOUTHEAST US WINTER STORM IS NOW DONE & TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN EARNEST BY THIS WEEKEND ***

The historic winter storm that blanketed the northern Gulf Coast with record amounts of snowfall has exited and is now pushing into the open Atlantic.

The snowfall totals across the northern Gulf Coast and across parts of the coast of the southeastern United States are nothing but astonishing. These final snow totals include:

Texas:
La Porte: 6 Inches.
Beaumont: 5.2 Inches.
Southeast Houston: 4 Inches.

Louisiana:
Grand Coteau: 13.4 Inches.
Chalmette: 11.5 Inches.
Lafayette: 10.5 Inches.
Rayne: 10.5 Inches.
New Orleans: 10 inches.
Metairie: 10 Inches.
Baton Rouge: 8 Inches.
Lake Charles: 6 Inches.
Kenner: 4 Inches.

Mississippi:
Biloxi: 7.8 Inches.
Lumberton: 4 Inches.

Alabama:
Babbie: 11 Inches.
Spanish Fort: 9.5 Inches.
Orange Beach: 8.8 Inches.
Silverhill: 8.5 Inches.
Mobile: 7.5 Inches.

Florida:
Milton: 9.8 Inches.
Molino: 9.5 Inches.
Pace: 9 Inches.
Pensacola Beach: 7.5 Inches.
Crestview: 5.5 Inches.
Downtown Pensacola: 5 Inches.

Georgia:
Cordele: 9 Inches.
Palmyra: 7.8 Inches.
Attapulgus: 7 Inches.
Savannah: 3 Inches.
Covington: 1.3 Inches.

South Carolina:
Cross: 6 Inches.
Hanahan: 4 Inches.
Summerville: 3.5 Inches.
Gloverville: 1.4 Inches.
Johnston: 1.1 Inches.

North Carolina:
Kill Devlil Hills: 9 Inches.
Hatteras Island: 8 Inches.
Morehead City: 5 Inches.
Odgen: 4.5 Inches.
Raleigh: 1.1 Inches.

The satellite image of the northern Gulf Coast from this morning is something that you probably will not see again for many, many more years. All of the white on the satellite imagery from southeast Texas to Georgia is snow on the ground!!

The combination of the snow pack and the Arctic air in place led to some incredibly cold temperatures across the Deep South this morning. In fact, all time low temperature records were recorded in New Iberia, Lake Charles and Lafayette.

Low Temperatures This Morning Along The Northern Gulf Coast:

Louisiana:
New Iberia: 3 Degrees (All Time Record Low).
Lafayette: 5 Degrees (All Time Record Low).
Lake Charles: 8 Degrees (All Time Record Low).
Baton Rouge: 9 Degrees.
Slidell: 11 Degrees.
Houma: 15 Degrees.
Alexandria: 16 Degrees.
Monroe: 17 Degrees.
Shreveport: 19 Degrees.
New Orleans: 24 Degrees.

Mississippi:
McComb: 11 Degrees.
Jackson: 15 Degrees.
Biloxi: 17 Degrees.

Alabama:
Mobile: 10 Degrees.
Birmingham:11 Degrees.

While temperatures will be well below freezing again tonight as far south as the northern Gulf Coast, they are expected to warm up into the low to mid 40s on both Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon allowing for the snow to melt. Much of the snow should melt in earnest this weekend as high temperatures in the 50s and 60s are expected across the northern Gulf Coast into the southeastern United States.

01/22/2025

Posted at 9 pm EST/8 pm CST Tuesday Evening 1/21/2025: I’d like to thank everyone for all of the pictures you have sent me today of the historic winter storm across the northern Gulf Coast. I’ve been able to live vicariously through your pictures and videos of the snow – so thank you!!!

The snow totals from this storm have been nothing but amazing & they include:

Texas:
Southeast Houston: 4 Inches.
Beaumont: 5.2 Inches.

Louisiana:
Rayne: 10.5 Inches.
New Orleans: 9.8 inches, which is now a new record for the city (Old record was 8.2 inches in 1895).
Lafayette: 10.5 Inches.
Metairie: 9 Inches.
Lake Charles: 6 Inches.

Mississippi:
Biloxi: 7.8 Inches.
Lumberton: 4 Inches.

Alabama:
Silverhill: 8.5 Inches.
Mobile: 6.2 Inches.
Orange Beach, Alabama: 6.5 Inches.

Florida:
Molino: 9.5 Inches.
Milton: 8.8 Inches.
Pensacola: 7.6 Inches.

Some of these reports across southern Alabama and across the Panhandle of Florida are a couple of hours old & it’s still snowing in these areas.

Here is the forecast for the next several hours across areas that are still snowing:

Southern Alabama: Snow continues the next couple of hours and will end by 9 pm CST. Up to one more inch of snow is expected.

Western Panhandle Of Florida: Snow will continue for the next several hours and will come to an end around midnight tonight. Additional snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

Eastern Panhandle Of Florida: Rain will change to snow over the next couple of hours. The snow will then continue for a good part of the overnight hours before ending just before sunrise Wednesday morning. Total snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

North Florida: Rain changes to sleet by midnight. Sleet & snow then continues during the after midnight hours of tonight before ending just after sunrise Wednesday morning. Total snow and sleet amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected.

Northeast Florida: Rain changes to sleet by around midnight tonight. Sleet & snow then continues during the after midnight hours of tonight into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Sleet & snow ends about mid-morning Wednesday morning. Total snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches is expected.

Southern & Southeastern Georgia: Snow and sleet will continue throughout much of tonight and will end from northwest to southeast during the early and mid-morning hours of Wednesday. Coastal areas of Georgia will be the last to see the snow end and that should occur about mid-morning Wednesday. Additional snow amounts of 4 to 6 more inches are expected.

Central & Eastern South Carolina: Snow continues throughout much of the rest of tonight and will begin to end from west to east around sunrise Wednesday morning. Coastal South Carolina will be the last to see the snow end and that will occur around mid-morning Wednesday. Additional snow amounts of 4 to 6 more inches are expected.

Central & Eastern North Carolina: Snow continues throughout much of the rest of tonight and will begin to end from west to east around sunrise Wednesday morning. Coastal North Carolina & The Outer Banks will be the last to see the snow end and that will occur around mid-morning Wednesday. Additional snow amounts of 3 to 5 more inches are expected.

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01/21/2025

Posted Late Tuesday Morning 1/21/2025: What an incredible and amazing look right now along the northern Gulf Coast where heavy snow is now occurring across all of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. It will begin snowing in the western Florida Panhandle very shortly. This heavy snow is being accompanied by gusty winds leading to blizzard conditions in many areas along the northern Gulf Coast.

This is definitely going to be a winter storm for the record books for most. Get out there and enjoy this very rare snowfall. Post snow pictures from where you are along the Gulf Coast, I'd love to see them!!

01/20/2025

Posted Early Monday Afternoon 1/20/2025: *** A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT AREAS OF THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, NORTH FLORIDA, SOUTHERN GEORGIA & THE COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING ***

A historic, major, once in a generation winter storm is expected for many along the Gulf Coast, including areas from Houston through Lafayette, Gulfport, Mobile, Pensacola to Tallahassee.

An Arctic air mass has settled across the much of the southern and eastern United States and has set the stage for a very rare major winter storm for the Gulf Coast, as well as across parts of the Southeast Atlantic coast from northeast Florida to the coastal Carolinas.

An area of low pressure is expected to take shape over the western Gulf of Mexico late tonight and then move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico during the day on Tuesday. This low pressure system will cross north Florida on Tuesday night and head into the open Atlantic by Wednesday.

The energy and moisture with this low pressure system will crash into this Arctic air mass leading to the expectation of an expansive area of snow, sleet and freezing rain to affect much of the Gulf Coast from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle starting late tonight and continuing through Tuesday.

The transition line from snow to sleet and freezing rain looks to set up from south-central Texas eastward to coastal parts of Louisiana late tonight and Tuesday and then across the eastern Florida Panhandle to southern Georgia on Tuesday night.

North of this line, a swath of heavy snow is expected across southeast Texas, southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia starting during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning and then continuing through all day on Tuesday. Snowfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour can be expected at times during Tuesday across the entire area.

To the south of this line, freezing rain with ice amounts of one tenth to one quarter of an inch is expected on Tuesday night across the eastern Florida Panhandle, north Florida and southern Georgia.

Please take this winter storm seriously and avoid all travel from late tonight until Thursday morning. Many roads along the Gulf Coast from southeast Texas to the Panhandle of Florida will be impassable and extremely treacherous. Also, avoid travel from Tuesday afternoon to at least Thursday across north Florida and southern Georgia as roads will be impassable due to ice accumulations.

Widespread snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8 to 10 inches are expected in an area from Houston to Beaumont to Lake Charles to Baton Rouge to New Orleans to Gulfport. Those of you along the coastline of Louisiana including New Iberia, Morgan City and Houma are also expected to see significant snow amounts of at least 2 to 4 inches.

Further east, snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected across southern Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia.

If some of the snowfall forecast numbers that I’m seeing right now verify, this winter storm could match or even rival the 1895 historic Gulf Coast winter storm.

The combination of cold and snow that will accompany this winter storm will be very dangerous. Travel is expected to be impossible and tree branches will likely snap from the weight of snow and ice. I urge you to stay home, keep yourself and your pets warm and keep your pipes protected so that they don’t burst from the freezing temperatures.

This storm’s impact is expected to last multiple days and this means that you may have to shelter in place from Tuesday until at least Thursday.

SOME OTHER THINGS TO REMEMBER:

- Plan to bring animals in or prepare a shelter for them to stay warm.
- Have in plan a place for the elderly and those who don’t have reliable access to stay warm.
- Check and protect pipes. Insulate pipes if possible.
- Open up sink cabinets to expose pipes to heated air.
- Disconnect hoses & turn off water to sprinklers.

01/19/2025

Posted Early Sunday Afternoon 1/19/2025: *** A HISTORIC MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ***

A major and probably historic winter storm is expected to impact much of the Deep South states of eastern, central and southeastern Texas, all of Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, much of Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, north and northeast Florida and much of the Carolinas.

An area of low pressure is expected to take shape off of the lower Texas coast on Monday night. Gulf of Mexico moisture will push into an Arctic air mass leading to a icy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to occur across much of east, central and southeast Texas during late Monday night.

This low pressure system will then cross from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico during the day on Tuesday. Strong amounts of energy and quite a bit of moisture will push into the central Gulf Coast where that Arctic air mass will be located. Because of this, moderate to locally heavy snow is expected in an area from the northern suburbs of Houston eastward through southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi during the day on Tuesday. This snow will move into southern Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle and central Georgia by Tuesday evening.

A swath of freezing rain with significant amounts of ice is expected to move over northern Florida and southern Georgia during Tuesday night.

Snow is also expected along the Georgia and Carolina coastlines on Tuesday night, which will last until Wednesday morning.

This is likely to be an exceptionally rare snowfall for many across the Deep South. The most snow ever recorded in New Orleans in modern history was 2.7" back in 1963. Mobile hasn't seen more than about 3 inches of snow in living memory. This snowfall event is likely to rival those historic snowfalls & will probably be a generational winter storm for much of the Deep South.

Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected across an area from the eastern Houston suburbs through the Beaumont area through much of southern Louisiana, including Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rouge and New Orleans through southern Mississippi, including Hattiesburg and Gulfport.

Snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected for many across the Deep South outside of the 3 to 6 inch snowfall area. Areas that are likely to receive 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation include all of the Houston Metro, San Antonio, Austin, Jackson, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile, Pensacola, Tallahassee, Atlanta, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Wilmington.

Ice is also expected to be a huge problem for parts of north Florida and southeastern Georgia where one tenth to one quarter of an inch of ice from freezing rain is expected on Tuesday night. This is more than enough ice to lead to tree damage and widespread power outages.

I cannot emphasize enough how big of a deal this is going to be for those of you in the Deep South. This is going to be an extremely high-impact and extremely disruptive storm for the region.

DO NOT travel for at least several days (from early Tuesday morning until at least early Friday) due to the expectation of extremely hazardous road conditions for an extended period of time due to snow, ice and temperatures then remaining below freezing. Airport delays and cancellations are likely on Tuesday, Wednesday and maybe even Thursday.

01/18/2025

Posted Early Saturday Afternoon 1/18/2025: *** A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST, CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST TEXAS, MUCH OF LOUISIANA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, NORTH & NORTHEAST FLORIDA, MUCH OF GEORGIA & MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ***

A significant to major winter storm is expected across parts of the Deep South beginning late Monday night across eastern, central and southeastern Texas, then spreading across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and north and northeast Florida on Tuesday. The Carolinas will then be impacted by this winter storm on Tuesday night. This storm will then exit into the Atlantic during Wednesday.

A corridor of heavy snow with amounts of 2 to possibly as much as 6-8 inches can be expected in the area near and north of I-10 and near and south of I-20.

Freezing rain with significant ice amounts of up to one tenth of an inch can be expected right along and just south of the I-10 corridor.

Major traffic and travel disruptions can be expected on areas roads across eastern, central and southeastern Texas, much of Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, northern and northeastern Florida, much of Georgia and much of the Carolinas. Flight cancellations and flight delays are also expected.

Tree damage and power outages are also likely with this winter storm, especially where significant ice accumulations are expected. These power outages could lead to a lack of heat in affected areas, which could prove to be a life threatening situation given the expectation of widespread sub-freezing temperatures along much of the Gulf Coast throughout much of the week.

TO SUM IT UP -

Some Cities In The Deep South That Will See Significant Snow Amounts Of 2 To 5 Inches With Local Amounts Of 6-8 Inches: Houston, Beaumont, Shreveport, Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Jackson, Meridian, Hattiesburg, Gulfport, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile, Pensacola, Macon, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, Raleigh & Charlotte.

Some Cities In The Deep South That Will Receive Significant Ice Amounts (Some Of These Places May See Both Significant Snow AND Ice Accumulations): Victoria, Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles, Lafayette, New Orleans, Houma, Pensacola, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Valdosta, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach & Wilmington.

12/29/2024

Posted Sunday Afternoon 12/29/2024: *** AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH THE THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL, SOUTHERN & EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK OF JANUARY 6TH ***

It looks like an Arctic air mass will invade much of the central, southern and eastern United States during the first full week of January. This Arctic air mass has the potential to bring some very cold weather as well as the possibility for some winter weather during the week of January 6th as far south as the Gulf Coast and north Florida.

The weather pattern setup by next weekend (January 4-5) looks to consist of an upper level trough of low pressure that will dig south and east into much of the eastern one-half of the United States. This upper level trough of low pressure will pull down a deep Arctic air mass into areas of the United States that are east of the Rocky Mountains. This has the very real potential to be a significant outbreak of cold air throughout the week of January 6.

Well below freezing temperatures are expected to reach as far south as the Gulf Coast and even as far south as Central Florida. Below zero temperatures could push as far south as the southern Appalachian mountains and the Tennessee River valley during the week of January 6.

The part that is much more uncertain is whether there will be any snow or ice that affects the Deep South and parts of the Gulf Coast. While snow is very rare along the Gulf Coast or in north Florida, it is not impossible and it has occurred a few times in the past. That said, even if we have a very cold air mass in place, everything needs to click into place exactly for a snowfall to occur across the Deep South, the Gulf Coast and across north Florida.

There is a window of opportunity from about January 5 to January 8 for a winter storm to affect much of the southern and eastern United States. While this is not a guarantee to happen, it is a time period that will need to be watched closely.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT for about a one week period, it will really feel like winter across much of the central, southern and eastern United States and I’ll have many more updates on this as needed.

11/30/2024

*** A REVIEW OF HOW THE 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON MATCHED UP TO WHAT I FORECASTED BACK IN MARCH ***

The 2024 Hurricane Season officially ends today. In all, we ended up with 18 named storms, 11 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 5 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. It was a hyperactive and very impactful hurricane season. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE) was 161.7, which is certainly a hyperactive season.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will certainly be remembered for the Appalachian flood disaster that Hurricane Helene brought. It will also be remembered by the serious impacts that Hurricane Milton brought to Florida shortly after Helene’s impact. I fully expect to see both Helene and Milton be retired as names in the post season. We cannot forget Beryl, which was a Caribbean Category 5 hurricane in early July.

The total damage from the 2024 Hurricane Season will likely exceed $150 billion in damages based on some reliable estimates I’ve seen.

HOW DID MY PRESEASON FORECAST DO? Back on March 13, I forecasted that the 2024 hurricane season would be an extraordinarily active hurricane season in terms of both number of storms and also in the amount of potential impacts across the Caribbean and along the US Coastline (especially the Gulf Coast). It did end up being an extremely impactful season, however, the number of storms fell short of what I forecasted.

THIS IS WHAT I FORECASTED BACK ON MARCH 13:
25 Named Storms (18 named storms, so I did not verify there).

12 Hurricanes (11 Hurricanes, so I pretty much verified).

6 Major Hurricanes (5 Major Hurricanes, so again, I pretty much verified).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 225 (161.7, which fell short of what I forecasted).

The reason why I forecasted such a busy season back in March was due to the combination of extremely warm ocean waters, the expectation of La Nina conditions and a overall favorable look for development in the Atlantic. Much of this did verify. The big surprise was how quiet the period from mid-August to early September was. While it threw a monkey wrench into the forecast, the extremely active late season hurricane activity certainly made up for that quiet period.

NOW, HOW DID MY IMPACT FORECAST DO? Back in March, I forecasted that I thought that the northwestern Caribbean, the northeastern Caribbean, the area from the Bahamas through the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico would be particularly at risk from hurricane activity during the 2024 season.

Overall, my forecasts of a very impactful season for the northwestern Caribbean, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula verified very well. The activity over the northeastern Caribbean as well as across the Bahamas was much, much less than what I forecasted, which is, obviously, great news.

I did forecast a high risk for a tropical storm or hurricane impact across the northwestern and north-central Gulf Coast and we did have 2 hurricane landfalls, one on the middle and upper Texas coast and one in southeastern Louisiana.

I also did forecast a high risk of a tropical storm or hurricane impact along the coast from Georgia to the Mid-Atlantic States. This ended up not really verifying, although Debby did bring tropical storm conditions to the Georgia and South Carolina coastline.

From this point, I will shift my attention to monitoring the weather across the southern United States and the eastern United States. I’ll certainly be sending out updates over the next 6 months covering significant winter storms or significant severe weather events. I will also be starting to take a look at what the 2025 hurricane season may be like over the next few months and will send out my forecast probably during March or early April.

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11/13/2024

Posted Tuesday Evening 11/12/2024: *** A HURRICANE MIGHT FORM IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SOON AS THIS WEEKEND WITH A TRACK THAT MAY TAKE IT TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA & THE BAHAMAS NEXT WEEK ***

AND HERE WE GO AGAIN!!! It looks like newly designated Invest 99-L has the likelihood to develop into a tropical storm and then a hurricane as it heads westward into the Western Caribbean. The next name on the list is

Those of you reading this in the and the Peninsula need to monitor this system extremely closely. It could be a significant hurricane threat to you late this week and this weekend depending on how things unfold over the next few days.

AS FOR THOSE OF YOU IN FLORIDA & THE BAHAMAS: Next week could be extremely “interesting” in terms of a possible tropical storm or hurricane impact to South Florida & the Florida Keys as well as to the Bahamas. Invest 99-L is a system that’s going to have to be watched extremely closely if you are in South Florida, the Florida Keys & the Bahamas.

I just sent out a very comprehensive and detailed discussion on Invest 99-L that can be found at https://crownweather.com/a-hurricane-could-develop-in-the-western-caribbean-as-soon-as-this-weekend-with-a-track-that-may-take-it-towards-south-florida-next-week/ . You can read this discussion if you are a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber.

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one now and track this system with us by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/

11/11/2024

Posted Monday Evening 11/11/2024: *** WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND ***

Unfortunately, the hurricane season is not over as it appears that we will likely see tropical development occur in the western Caribbean later this week and this weekend. This means that our backloaded season continues & the signals are definitely there for a significant storm to form in the western Caribbean.

An area of disturbed weather now located over the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola is expected to find itself in a favorable environment for development over the western Caribbean in a few days from now.

Because of all of this, I think that it is quite likely that we’ll see the development of a tropical depression towards the end of this week with this system strengthening into a tropical storm by this weekend in the western Caribbean. The next name on the list is Sara.

Given how favorable the western Caribbean might be, there is the very real possibility that this system could end up becoming a strong hurricane in the western Caribbean during the first half of next week.

Right now, there seems to be three potential track scenarios that I have outlined on the map attached to this post.

Bottom line though is that while a South Florida and Florida Keys impact is a low possibility, as of right now, it is something that is of concern. In fact, I’m more concerned about a South Florida and Florida Keys impact than I was at this time yesterday as the steering patterns may set up in a way that offers a late season tropical storm/hurricane threat Florida.

As much as I would love to close the books on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we are going to have to get through this system first before we can probably call things good and done for the season.

I will be sending out frequent updates in the coming days to Crown Weather PLUS subscribers. Not a subscriber? Become one now by going to the following link https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

10/09/2024

Posted Early Wednesday Afternoon 10/9/2024: *** MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON FLORIDA'S WEST COAST TONIGHT BRINGING A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS & FLOODING RAINFALL WITH IT ***

is now tracking to the northeast after its move to the nearly due east last night. The question now becomes where exactly will Milton make landfall on Florida’s West Coast.

The latest model guidance are pretty consistent in forecasting a landfall very near or to the south of Tampa Bay late tonight.

So, will Milton bring a catastrophic storm surge to Tampa Bay? It’s possible. Is it also possible that Tampa Bay misses a disaster from Milton? It’s also possible. I cannot stress how extremely close the eye of Milton will get to Tampa and it’s really going to be a game of inches. One or two little wobbles in the track will mean the difference between a track south of Tampa and a track right into Tampa Bay – it’s that close!!

In terms of storm surge, a landfall south of Tampa would spare the Tampa Bay area the worst coastal flooding, but would direct a catastrophic storm surge towards Sarasota, Venice, North Port and Charlotte Harbor.

On the other hand, a track into Tampa and St. Pete would push a catastrophic storm surge into Tampa Bay.

- MY THINKING AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS for Milton to make landfall very near Bradenton and Sarasota near or just a little after midnight as a 125-130 mph borderline Category 3-4 hurricane. That said, I am not at all ruling out a Tampa Bay direct hit and in fact, the latest movement of the hurricane has been on a north-northeast track and we need to see that turn back to the northeast and east-northeast to avoid a Tampa Bay direct landfall.

This means that areas including Tampa, St. Pete, Bradenton, Sarasota, Anna Maria Island, Longboat Key, Siesta Key, Venice and Englewood are all squarely in the “line of fire” and have a high likelihood of seeing a direct hit from Milton.

FORECAST IMPACTS:
- STORM SURGE: As I just mentioned, it’s still too much of a close call for Tampa Bay to say whether it’ll be hit by a 10-15 foot storm surge or be missed due to a track to the south of the Bay. We are talking literally a few wobbles in the track that makes the difference between little or no surge or a catastrophic surge for Tampa Bay. These little wobbles will not be able to be predicted until later this afternoon or this evening when we’re just a few hours from landfall.

For those areas south of Tampa Bay from Sarasota through Fort Myers and Naples, it’s almost guaranteed that a devastating and catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15 feet will occur. This also includes Venice, Longboat Key, Englewood and even Charlotte Harbor.

Now turning to coastal parts of east-central and northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, it appears that areas from about Titusville and points north to Savannah will see a 3 to 6 foot storm surge throughout the day Thursday. This area also includes Brunswick, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach and the St. Johns River.

- WIND: The area that’s going to have the greatest threat for extremely damaging hurricane force winds with gusts of well over 110-120 mph will be an area that includes Brooksville, Palm Harbor, Clearwater, Lakeland, Tampa, St. Pete, Longboat Key, Sarasota, Englewood and Venice throughout tonight. The strongest winds, by far, will occur on the northern side of the storm as its making landfall.

As for Central, East-Central and Northeast Florida, hurricane force wind gusts on the order of 75-95 mph can be expected during the height of the storm late tonight through Thursday morning. This includes Orlando, all of the Space Coast, Daytona Beach and St. Augustine.

As for North-Central Florida, peak wind gusts of 40-60 mph can be expected early Thursday morning.

- TORNADOES: Bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms continues to rotate into the Florida Peninsula out ahead of Milton and numerous supercells have been embedded within these bands of storms. Some of these supercells have had a history of producing tornadoes across inland areas of South Florida, as well as across Southwest Florida

The tornado threat throughout this afternoon and tonight is expected to continue to be quite significant across parts of Central and South Florida and includes Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, Vero Beach, Titusville and Orlando. The environmental conditions across this part of the Florida Peninsula is highly favorable for tornadoes. In fact, the tornado threat still looks unusually high for a tropical cyclone event. Be aware of the tornado threat and be ready to take immediate shelter if Tornado Warnings are issued across Central and South Florida as some of the tornadoes could be on the strong side in intensity.

- HEAVY RAIN: There continues to be a very substantial threat for inland flooding from heavy rainfall along and north of the I-4 corridor where 10 to 15 inches of rainfall can be expected. This will lead to flash flooding of low-lying areas as well as river flooding problems.