Crown Weather Services

09/10/2024

Posted Midday Tuesday 9/10/2024: *** TROPICAL STORM UPDATE ***

All final preparations for hurricane conditions across southern Louisiana should be finished up this afternoon as weather conditions will really be deteriorating throughout the day on Wednesday. Latest indications are that Francine will likely strengthen into a hurricane sometime this afternoon and then continue to strengthen, possibly at a rapid rate, later today through tonight and into Wednesday as it heads for the Louisiana coast.

My latest take is that Francine will make landfall as about a 105 to 115 mph hurricane between the eastern side of Vermilion Bay and Terrebonne Bay during late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. This slight shift to the east in the forecast track puts parts of the New Orleans metro at a higher risk from Francine.

KEEP UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST ON BY GOING TO OUR STORM PAGE AT https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al062024/ .

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

FORECAST IMPACTS:
WIND: Southern and parts of Southeastern Louisiana is expected to see the greatest impact in terms of wind.

Tropical storm force winds are expected along much of the Louisiana coast and the coast of southwestern Mississippi beginning during the day on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night.

Hurricane force winds can be expected along the coast of south-central Louisiana near and just east of where Francine makes landfall. At this point, it appears that hurricane conditions can be expected from about Lafayette and New Iberia eastward through Morgan City to Houma during Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts of 100 mph or more are likely along this part of the Louisiana coast. These hurricane force winds are expected to extend inland as far as Baton Rouge and Hammond.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet above ground level can be expected in an area along the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Port Fourchon and Grand Isle. This includes Vermilion Bay and Morgan City.

A storm surge of 3 to 5 feet can be expected in Lake Pontchartrain.

A storm surge of up to 3 to 5 feet can be expected along the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. A 2 to 5 foot storm surge is expected along far southwestern Louisiana and across the upper Texas coast. A 1 to 3 foot storm surge can be expected along the lower and middle Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain with the potential for very considerable flooding could be a big time threat across much of southern and eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama with rain totals of 4 to 8 inches expected. Local amounts of up to one foot is possible across south-central and southeastern Louisiana.

09/09/2024

Posted Early Monday Afternoon 9/9/2024: Tropical Storm is organizing and strengthening right now & all indications are point towards it being a significant hurricane impact for the Louisiana coast during Wednesday afternoon & Wednesday night.

You can track Francine with us by going to this link - https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al062024/ . Our Tropical Storm Francine page includes comprehensive and detailed information, maps and links about this storm.

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

As of this present moment, I think, at the minimum, we will probably see Francine make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with 100-110 mph winds. That said, there is the very real possibility that the storm could be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall and my recommendation to you along the southern Louisiana coast is to prepare for a Category 3 hurricane.

FORECAST IMPACTS:
WIND: Southern Louisiana is likely to see the greatest impact in terms of wind. Tropical storm and hurricane force winds are likely along much of the Louisiana coast from the eastern part of Cameron Parish eastward to Morgan City and Grand Isle beginning during the day on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night.

The highest winds are likely to occur near and just east of where Francine makes landfall. This means that with a landfall on the western side of Vermilion Bay, the highest winds will likely occur across the Louisiana Parishes of Vermilion, Lafayette, St. Martin, Iberia, Iberville, Ascension, Assumption, St. James, St. John, St. Charles, St. Mary, Lafourche and Terrebonne. Wind gusts of over 100 mph are likely across this part of southern Louisiana.

Further west, wind gusts of up to 50 mph seems possible from Tuesday into Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and the coast of southwestern Louisiana.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet above ground level can be expected in an area along the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Port Fourchon and Grand Isle. This includes Vermilion Bay and Morgan City.

A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet can be expected in Lake Pontchartrain.

A storm surge of up to 3 to 5 feet can be expected along the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. A 2 to 5 foot storm surge is expected along far southwestern Louisiana and across the upper Texas coast.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain with the potential for very considerable flooding could be a big time threat across the far upper Texas coast and across much of southern and eastern Louisiana. Heavy rain with flash flooding is also going to be a concern across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama throughout the rest of this week.

Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of up to 10 to 12 inches can be expected across southern and eastern Louisiana, including Lafayette, Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

09/08/2024

Posted Sunday Evening 9/8/2024: Invest 91-L located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has been "upgraded" to Potential Tropical Cyclone #6.

You can track Potential Tropical Cyclone #6 which is likely to become Tropical Storm Francine within the next day or so by going to this link - https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al062024/ . Our Potential Tropical Cyclone #6 page includes comprehensive and detailed information, maps and links about this storm.

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

All indications are pointing towards PTC 6 becoming a legitimate hurricane impact along much of the Louisiana coast with a landfall occurring around Wednesday evening.

I still think that the center of what will be Francine will make landfall on the western side of Vermilion Bay during Wednesday night. One thing that has changed is my forecast of the strength of this system at landfall. I now think that it seems quite plausible that we’ll see this system make landfall as a 95 to 105 mph hurricane.

Additionally, it does still look likely that this system will be strengthening right through landfall and because of this the stronger wind gusts will be able to mix down to the ground quite easily. This means that wind gusts of 100-plus mph are quite possible near where this system makes landfall. In fact, hurricane force winds are a possibility as far inland as Lafayette and possibly even Baton Rouge.

FORECAST IMPACTS: The coast of southern Louisiana will likely see the most impact from this system with tropical storm and hurricane force winds likely beginning during the day on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night. Obviously, the highest winds will occur near and just east of where this system makes landfall.

If this system does make landfall around Vermilion Bay, it would lead to the highest winds to occur across the Louisiana Parishes of Vermilion, Lafayette, St. Martin, Iberia, Iberville, Ascension, Assumption, St. James, St. John, St. Charles, St. Mary, Lafourche and Terrebonne.

Further west, wind gusts of up to 50 mph seems possible from Tuesday into Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and the coast of southwestern Louisiana.

Heavy rain with the potential for very considerable flooding could be a big time threat across the far upper Texas coast and across much of southern Louisiana. Heavy rain with flash flooding is also going to be a concern across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama throughout this coming week.

Storm surge flooding is also going to be a threat along much of the Louisiana coastline.

I urge all interests along the Texas coast and especially the Louisiana coast to pay very close attention to the latest updates of this system. My advice to you is to make sure your hurricane kits are up-to-date. Also, take the rest of today and tomorrow to get ready – gas up your vehicle, get supplies, clean out drains, etc.

09/07/2024

Posted Saturday Evening 9/7/2024: There is an increasing chance for a Tropical Storm & maybe even a Hurricane Impact Centered Along The Southern Louisiana Coast by the middle part of next week.

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 91-L) now located over the Bay of Campeche is likely to become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm by the first part of next week as it heads northward.

My thinking as of this Saturday Evening is that what will end up being Tropical Storm Francine will probably head for the south-central coast of Louisiana for a landfall that occurs on Wednesday night somewhere on the western side of Vermilion Bay as a 55 to 70 mph tropical storm. That said, I do think that this system will be strengthening right through landfall and because of this, it’s quite possible it could make landfall as a 75-85 mph hurricane.

My advice to those of you along the Louisiana coast is to make sure your hurricane kits and up-to-date and be ready for at least tropical storm conditions and very possibly hurricane conditions from Wednesday into Thursday.

As for those of you along the Texas coast, I think areas along the upper Texas coast are at most risk from this system from Tuesday through Wednesday. Flooding from surge and rainfall seem to be the highest threat across the upper Texas coast. Being on the western side of Invest 91-L, I suspect that wind impacts shouldn’t be that bad as compared to areas along the southern Louisiana coast.

A very comprehensive and detailed discussion on Invest 91-L can be found at https://crownweather.com/increasing-chance-for-a-tropical-storm-maybe-even-a-hurricane-impact-along-the-upper-texas-coast-especially-the-louisiana-coast-by-the-middle-part-of-next-week/ .

Become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today and track the latest with Invest 91-L with us. For more information, go to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

08/30/2024

Posted Late Friday Afternoon 8/30/2024: It is looking increasingly more likely that a tropical disturbance now located over the central Tropical Atlantic could be a real problem from the northwestern Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico later next week and next weekend.

HEADS UP FOR THOSE OF YOU IN THE LESSER ANTILLES – Be aware that this disturbance may cross the Lesser Antilles as a tropical depression and very possibly a tropical storm during the day on Monday. Very squally weather, including heavy downpours, gusty winds and rough seas are expected to occur across much of the Windward Islands and across the southern and central Leeward Islands beginning on Sunday night and continuing through Monday and Monday night.

FOR THOSE OF YOU FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO - I strongly urge all interests across the area from the western and northwestern Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico to keep very close tabs on the progress of this disturbance. This includes those of you in Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula and from Louisiana to Florida.

A full comprehensive and detailed discussion on both the central Tropical Atlantic disturbance and a tropical disturbance over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico can be found at https://crownweather.com/the-western-gulf-of-mexico-the-area-east-of-the-lesser-antilles-continues-to-be-watched-closely-for-potential-tropical-development/ .

Become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

08/29/2024

Posted Thursday Evening 8/29/2024: It is looking increasingly more likely that a tropical disturbance now located over the central Tropical Atlantic will develop into a tropical depression or perhaps even into a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles on about Monday.

For those of you in the Lesser Antilles, I think there’s the very real chance that this disturbance will be a tropical depression or a tropical storm when it moves through the islands and into the eastern Caribbean on Monday. All interests across the Leeward and Windward Islands should monitor the latest updates with this disturbance.

Much more on this area of disturbed weather can be found in our latest weather update at https://crownweather.com/tropical-development-is-looking-increasingly-more-likely-in-the-area-east-of-the-lesser-antilles-late-this-weekend-or-early-next-week-the-western-gulf-of-mexico-is-another-area-to-watch-for-some-poss/ .

Another area I'm watching is the convection that's now occurring over the Gulf of Mexico. At this point though, I think the chances of development are very low. That said, all interests along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts surrounding this area of disturbed weather, just in case.

Become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber today and track the latest in tropical weather with us. For more information, go to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

08/26/2024

Posted Late Monday Afternoon 8/26/2024: The quiet period that we've had across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is expected to come to an end by this coming weekend.

A tropical wave now located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic has the potential to begin developing this coming weekend as it's approaching the Lesser Antilles. In fact, I think it's quite possible that it'll end up becoming our next named storm, Francine.

Those of you in the Leeward Islands should keep close tabs on this particular tropical wave as it could affect you around next Monday or next Tuesday as anywhere from a depression to a moderate to strong tropical storm.

Beyond this, it’s quite uncertain as to whether this system will curve to the north towards Bermuda or continue heading for the Bahamas and possibly the East Coast of the United States. I don’t want to speculate more than that, but my advice would be to keep an eye on this particular tropical wave if you are anywhere from the Leeward Islands west-northwestward to the Bahamas.

Our latest comprehensive and detailed discussion on all of this can be found at https://crownweather.com/tropical-development-chances-look-to-be-on-the-upswing-this-coming-weekend-east-of-the-lesser-antilles/ .

It does look like we'll be quite busy tracking tropical systems throughout the month of September. Track all of the tropical systems along with us by becoming a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber at https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

08/19/2024

Posted Late Monday Afternoon 8/19/2024: Hurricane Ernesto is about to exit stage right and the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico looks to be quiet throughout this week.

Beyond this, it looks like the overall pattern will become active again starting next week. Two areas where activity may increase beginning next week - The eastern Tropical Atlantic and the Southwestern North Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico.

I do think that by Labor Day weekend (August 31-September 2), things will probably look much more active across the Atlantic Basin.

Our latest comprehensive and detailed discussion on all of this can be found at https://crownweather.com/all-looks-quiet-this-week-across-the-atlantic-caribbean-the-tropics-are-then-expected-to-begin-waking-up-again-starting-next-week/ .

Track the tropics along with us anytime by becoming a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber at https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

Sign Up For Crown Weather Plus It is a weather subscription service for anybody with an interest or need for accurate and timely weather information. This includes forecasts for the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes up to two to four weeks in advance. In addition, we also provide forecasts...

08/14/2024

Posted Wednesday Evening 8/14/2024: Hurricane Ernesto is strengthening and headed for Bermuda where it'll likely bring hurricane conditions to the island late Friday into Saturday.

Looking beyond Ernesto, it looks like a favorable pattern will take shape across the Atlantic Basin in about 10-14 days from now. In fact, some of the latest model guidance are showing an active look during the last week of August around the Caribbean and the SW North Atlantic.

We are watching the tropics extremely closely here at Crown Weather and for the latest on what's occurring go to our website - https://crownweather.com .

08/13/2024

Posted Monday Evening 8/12/2024: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to the Leeward Islands late tonight into Tuesday and then to the Virgin Islands and parts of Puerto Rico during the day on Tuesday. Up to 50-60 mph wind gusts, 3 to 7 inches of rain and very rough surf can be expected.

Bermuda may then be the next spot to watch for potential impacts from Ernesto as it may be a formidable hurricane when it reaches Bermuda this coming weekend.

You can track the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto by going to our storm page at - https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al052024/ . Our Tropical Storm Ernesto page includes comprehensive and detailed information, maps and links about this storm.

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

08/11/2024

Posted Sunday Evening 8/11/2024: We now have Potential Tropical Cyclone #4 that's located some 900 miles to the east of the Leeward Islands. It is expected that this system will strengthen into Tropical Storm Ernesto by the time it reaches the Leeward Islands on Tuesday & then possibly become a hurricane in the northeast Caribbean on Wednesday.

You can track Potential Tropical Cyclone #5 which is likely to become Tropical Storm Ernesto within the next day or so by going to this link - https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al052024/ . Our Potential Tropical Cyclone #5 page includes comprehensive and detailed information, maps and links about this storm.

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

- FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS: Expect tropical storm conditions as I do think that Invest 98-L/Ernesto will probably be at least a 50-60 mph tropical storm when it crosses the Leeward Islands on Tuesday.

Very squally weather is expected to overspread the Leeward Islands on Monday night with tropical storm conditions, including heavy rain, rough surf and wind gusts to 55-70 mph look possible during the day on Tuesday. The islands I’m most concerned about seeing the worst impact are Antigua & Barbuda, St. Kitts & Nevis & perhaps St. Martin as this system begins its turn to the northwest. Weather conditions improve on Wednesday across the Leeward Islands.

- FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS & PUERTO RICO: Expect at least tropical storm conditions and very possibly hurricane conditions on Tuesday night and Wednesday, including wind gusts of 65-90 mph, heavy rain with the threat for flooding and mudslides and extremely rough surf. Weather conditions then look to improve on Thursday.

08/10/2024

Posted Late Saturday Afternoon 8/10/2024: It looks very likely that Invest 98-L which is located about 1300 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles will become Tropical Storm Ernesto in the next 2-3 days or so.

It looks likely that Invest 98-L will impact the northeastern Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with tropical storm conditions on Tuesday into Wednesday. A much more comprehensive and detailed description of what I'm forecasting can be found in our latest update at https://crownweather.com/invest-98-l-is-likely-to-develop-into-tropical-storm-ernesto-by-the-time-it-reaches-the-northeastern-caribbean-on-tuesday/ .

Beyond this, I don't think that the track forecast of Invest 98-L once it gets north of Puerto Rico is at all set in stone. In fact, I think there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to where it may track based on a chaotic and very changeable weather pattern over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic.

I wrote A LOT about what I'm looking at in terms of the overall weather pattern and how it may affect the track of future Ernesto in the same latest discussion that can be found at https://crownweather.com/invest-98-l-is-likely-to-develop-into-tropical-storm-ernesto-by-the-time-it-reaches-the-northeastern-caribbean-on-tuesday/ .

Track Invest 98-L along with us by becoming a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber at https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

08/07/2024

Posted Wednesday Evening 8/7/2024: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to make a second landfall during the after midnight hours of tonight along the coast of northeastern South Carolina. Debby will then move to the north and northeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States as we get into Friday and Friday night. Widespread heavy rain will continue to be the main threat from Debby from the Carolinas northward to New York State.

Once we say goodbye to Debby, we're then going to be turning our attention to a tropical disturbance now located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic. This disturbance has the potential to develop by the time it reaches the northeastern Caribbean by early next week.

Beyond this, the track forecast of this disturbance is highly uncertain. I did go over the 3 possible scenarios I see in terms of track with Crown Weather Plus subscribers in our latest discussion at https://crownweather.com/debby-will-make-landfall-late-tonight-between-charleston-a-new-disturbance-over-the-far-eastern-tropical/ .

Not a Crown Weather Plus subscriber?? Become one today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

08/06/2024

Posted Tuesday Evening 8/6/2024: We are still tracking Tropical Storm Debby, which will be bringing additional very heavy rainfall to areas from southeastern Georgia through eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina. Extreme to historic levels of flooding are likely over the next 2-3 days across much of eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina from all of the rain.

For those of you further up the coast, the remnants of Debby will likely produce rain totals of 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of up to 8 inches across central and eastern Virginia, northern Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey, eastern and southeastern New York, much of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island, central and southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire mostly from Thursday through Friday. These rainfall amounts will likely produce flash flooding and areas of river flooding.

You can track Tropical Storm Debby by going to this link - https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al042024/ . Our Tropical Storm Debby page includes comprehensive and detailed information, maps and links about this storm.

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

08/04/2024

Hello all! It’s Rob’s wife Meg! I have temporarily taken over Crown Weather to wish Rob a very happy 50th birthday!!! 🥳 Rob was born to be a meteorologist, and as you can see from the photos - he started forecasting before his 10th birthday! He’s not only an extremely dedicated and accurate meteorologis, he’s a wonderful human being! I’ve kidnapped him today to celebrate his birthday but I’m sure he’ll sneak in some updates about the current storm.

Please join me in wishing Rob a very happy 50th birthday!!!

08/04/2024

Posted Sunday Morning 8/4/2024: We continue to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Debby which is expected to make landfall as a hurricane on Florida's Big Bend area during Monday morning.

You can track Tropical Storm Debby by going to our storm specific page at https://crownweather.com/index.php/active-storms/al042024/ . This page includes comprehensive and detailed information, maps and links about this storm.

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one today by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

08/03/2024

Quick Update 11 pm Friday Evening 8/2/2024:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #4: Potential Tropical Cyclone #4 is now designated a Tropical Depression due to the much better structure this system exhibits south of Cuba. Overall, my thinking from the late Friday afternoon discussion hasn’t really changed.

As I expected, the center tracking south of Cuba caused a westward shift in the model guidance forecast tracks and this means that TD 4 will have more than sufficient time to not only become a moderate to upper end tropical storm, but to possibly also be a hurricane by the time it comes ashore in the area between just east of Apalachicola and Cedar Key late Sunday night or first thing Monday morning. In fact, the SHIPS intensity model is showing a 41 percent chance that TD 4 could intensify into a 60 mph tropical storm by Saturday evening and a 26 percent chance that it could strengthen into a 90-95 mph hurricane by Sunday evening.

Tropical storm conditions look quite likely along the west coast of Florida from about Tampa and points north Sunday afternoon and Sunday night and possible hurricane conditions in the Big Bend area of northwest Florida during Sunday night into Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are also likely across north Florida during Monday and across far southern and southeastern Georgia Monday afternoon and Monday night.

A slow down and stall of TD 4 as a tropical storm that probably will strengthen again into a hurricane looks quite plausible starting on Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday and Thursday as it meanders along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. This still looks like the part of the forecast that has very low confidence and a likely high error rate and because of this, I urge everyone from southeastern Georgia through the coastal Carolinas to be ready for anything.

I will have the latest on TD 4 with Saturday’s full discussion for Crown Weather Plus Subscribers. Become a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

Our storm specific page on Tropical Depression #4, which has comprehensive and detailed information, maps and links about this storm can be found at https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al042024/ .

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE: I wanted to also make a mention about a tropical disturbance now located over the central Tropical Atlantic near 48 West Longitude that needs to be watched. This disturbance could be a sneaky one as it heads westward towards the eastern Caribbean. The combination of very warm ocean water temperatures, light wind shear and plenty of available moisture are causing this disturbance to produce some persistent deep thunderstorm activity.

One factor that might mitigate development is some diverging low-level winds around the Lesser Antilles which could suppress this system some. That said, the environmental conditions do become much more favorable for development in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico in about a week from now.

I do think that this disturbance does merit close watching, especially for those of you in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. I’ll have more on this disturbance with Saturday’s full discussion.