Crown Weather Services, Sturbridge, MA (2024)

11/13/2024

Posted Tuesday Evening 11/12/2024: *** A HURRICANE MIGHT FORM IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SOON AS THIS WEEKEND WITH A TRACK THAT MAY TAKE IT TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA & THE BAHAMAS NEXT WEEK ***

AND HERE WE GO AGAIN!!! It looks like newly designated Invest 99-L has the likelihood to develop into a tropical storm and then a hurricane as it heads westward into the Western Caribbean. The next name on the list is

Those of you reading this in the and the Peninsula need to monitor this system extremely closely. It could be a significant hurricane threat to you late this week and this weekend depending on how things unfold over the next few days.

AS FOR THOSE OF YOU IN FLORIDA & THE BAHAMAS: Next week could be extremely “interesting” in terms of a possible tropical storm or hurricane impact to South Florida & the Florida Keys as well as to the Bahamas. Invest 99-L is a system that’s going to have to be watched extremely closely if you are in South Florida, the Florida Keys & the Bahamas.

I just sent out a very comprehensive and detailed discussion on Invest 99-L that can be found at https://crownweather.com/a-hurricane-could-develop-in-the-western-caribbean-as-soon-as-this-weekend-with-a-track-that-may-take-it-towards-south-florida-next-week/ . You can read this discussion if you are a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber.

Not a Crown Weather PLUS subscriber? Become one now and track this system with us by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/

11/11/2024

Posted Monday Evening 11/11/2024: *** WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND ***

Unfortunately, the hurricane season is not over as it appears that we will likely see tropical development occur in the western Caribbean later this week and this weekend. This means that our backloaded season continues & the signals are definitely there for a significant storm to form in the western Caribbean.

An area of disturbed weather now located over the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola is expected to find itself in a favorable environment for development over the western Caribbean in a few days from now.

Because of all of this, I think that it is quite likely that we’ll see the development of a tropical depression towards the end of this week with this system strengthening into a tropical storm by this weekend in the western Caribbean. The next name on the list is Sara.

Given how favorable the western Caribbean might be, there is the very real possibility that this system could end up becoming a strong hurricane in the western Caribbean during the first half of next week.

Right now, there seems to be three potential track scenarios that I have outlined on the map attached to this post.

Bottom line though is that while a South Florida and Florida Keys impact is a low possibility, as of right now, it is something that is of concern. In fact, I’m more concerned about a South Florida and Florida Keys impact than I was at this time yesterday as the steering patterns may set up in a way that offers a late season tropical storm/hurricane threat Florida.

As much as I would love to close the books on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we are going to have to get through this system first before we can probably call things good and done for the season.

I will be sending out frequent updates in the coming days to Crown Weather PLUS subscribers. Not a subscriber? Become one now by going to the following link https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

10/09/2024

Posted Early Wednesday Afternoon 10/9/2024: *** MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON FLORIDA'S WEST COAST TONIGHT BRINGING A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS & FLOODING RAINFALL WITH IT ***

is now tracking to the northeast after its move to the nearly due east last night. The question now becomes where exactly will Milton make landfall on Florida’s West Coast.

The latest model guidance are pretty consistent in forecasting a landfall very near or to the south of Tampa Bay late tonight.

So, will Milton bring a catastrophic storm surge to Tampa Bay? It’s possible. Is it also possible that Tampa Bay misses a disaster from Milton? It’s also possible. I cannot stress how extremely close the eye of Milton will get to Tampa and it’s really going to be a game of inches. One or two little wobbles in the track will mean the difference between a track south of Tampa and a track right into Tampa Bay – it’s that close!!

In terms of storm surge, a landfall south of Tampa would spare the Tampa Bay area the worst coastal flooding, but would direct a catastrophic storm surge towards Sarasota, Venice, North Port and Charlotte Harbor.

On the other hand, a track into Tampa and St. Pete would push a catastrophic storm surge into Tampa Bay.

- MY THINKING AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS for Milton to make landfall very near Bradenton and Sarasota near or just a little after midnight as a 125-130 mph borderline Category 3-4 hurricane. That said, I am not at all ruling out a Tampa Bay direct hit and in fact, the latest movement of the hurricane has been on a north-northeast track and we need to see that turn back to the northeast and east-northeast to avoid a Tampa Bay direct landfall.

This means that areas including Tampa, St. Pete, Bradenton, Sarasota, Anna Maria Island, Longboat Key, Siesta Key, Venice and Englewood are all squarely in the “line of fire” and have a high likelihood of seeing a direct hit from Milton.

FORECAST IMPACTS:
- STORM SURGE: As I just mentioned, it’s still too much of a close call for Tampa Bay to say whether it’ll be hit by a 10-15 foot storm surge or be missed due to a track to the south of the Bay. We are talking literally a few wobbles in the track that makes the difference between little or no surge or a catastrophic surge for Tampa Bay. These little wobbles will not be able to be predicted until later this afternoon or this evening when we’re just a few hours from landfall.

For those areas south of Tampa Bay from Sarasota through Fort Myers and Naples, it’s almost guaranteed that a devastating and catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15 feet will occur. This also includes Venice, Longboat Key, Englewood and even Charlotte Harbor.

Now turning to coastal parts of east-central and northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, it appears that areas from about Titusville and points north to Savannah will see a 3 to 6 foot storm surge throughout the day Thursday. This area also includes Brunswick, Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Daytona Beach and the St. Johns River.

- WIND: The area that’s going to have the greatest threat for extremely damaging hurricane force winds with gusts of well over 110-120 mph will be an area that includes Brooksville, Palm Harbor, Clearwater, Lakeland, Tampa, St. Pete, Longboat Key, Sarasota, Englewood and Venice throughout tonight. The strongest winds, by far, will occur on the northern side of the storm as its making landfall.

As for Central, East-Central and Northeast Florida, hurricane force wind gusts on the order of 75-95 mph can be expected during the height of the storm late tonight through Thursday morning. This includes Orlando, all of the Space Coast, Daytona Beach and St. Augustine.

As for North-Central Florida, peak wind gusts of 40-60 mph can be expected early Thursday morning.

- TORNADOES: Bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms continues to rotate into the Florida Peninsula out ahead of Milton and numerous supercells have been embedded within these bands of storms. Some of these supercells have had a history of producing tornadoes across inland areas of South Florida, as well as across Southwest Florida

The tornado threat throughout this afternoon and tonight is expected to continue to be quite significant across parts of Central and South Florida and includes Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, Vero Beach, Titusville and Orlando. The environmental conditions across this part of the Florida Peninsula is highly favorable for tornadoes. In fact, the tornado threat still looks unusually high for a tropical cyclone event. Be aware of the tornado threat and be ready to take immediate shelter if Tornado Warnings are issued across Central and South Florida as some of the tornadoes could be on the strong side in intensity.

- HEAVY RAIN: There continues to be a very substantial threat for inland flooding from heavy rainfall along and north of the I-4 corridor where 10 to 15 inches of rainfall can be expected. This will lead to flash flooding of low-lying areas as well as river flooding problems.

10/08/2024

Posted Late Tuesday Afternoon 10/8/2024: *** EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON FLORIDA'S WEST COAST TOMORROW NIGHT BRINGING A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS & FLOODING RAINFALL WITH IT ***

is once again rapidly strengthening and is a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds and a central barometric pressure that's plummeted to 902 millibars. The scary thing is that I do not think that Milton is done strengthening and we'll likely see even more intensification tonight into Wednesday morning.

For the latest on Milton including maps, data, advisories and lots of other information, just go to our Milton storm page at https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al142024/ .

You can read our latest discussions and updates on Hurricane Milton by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/discussions/ .

Also, you can subscribe and take advantage of our half-off lifetime subscription special by going to the following link -

MY THINKING AS OF RIGHT NOW IS THAT Milton will make landfall in the area between Clearwater and Sarasota as a solid Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds during the after midnight hours of Wednesday night.

I WANT TO BE COMPLETELY BLUNT WITH YOU - If you have been ordered to evacuate, you need to leave. It’s as simple as that. Help is not coming for you if you get into trouble in the eye wall of a major hurricane when you’re in 7 feet of water that’s rising all around you inside your home, or trying frantically to cut a hole in your roof as you’re stuck in your attic because the surge has reached you in your attic and you’re about to drown. These things have actually happened in past storms and they will happen again.

Follow all evacuation orders to save your life!!

Check on neighbors, family and friends to see if they are able to evacuate and if they’re not, find ways of making sure they evacuate, including taking them with you.

For those of you without any way to evacuate, please know that Florida Division of Emergency Management has partnered with Uber to provide rides to and from shelters in those counties evacuating for Milton. If you need a ride to a shelter, please follow these steps:
- Open the Uber app.
- Tap Account on the bottom right and tap Wallet.
- Add promo code MILTONRELIEF

Find a state-approved shelter at the following link - https://www.floridadisaster.org/Shelter-Status

Also, there will be free shuttles operating in Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough Counties assisting with evacuations to shelters. This shuttle is free and requires no reservation. Times and locations can be found at https://floridadisaster.org/Updates

Also, if you live within 50 miles of where the eye is crossing Florida and you live in a mobile home, you should also evacuate due to the likelihood of your mobile home being severely damaged by strong winds.

The storm surge will be unlike anything those of you along the west-central and southwest coast of Florida have ever seen. AND IT WILL BE AT NIGHT.

10/08/2024

Some important evacuation information to pass along for those of you without a way to evacuate:

Florida Division Of Emergency Management has partnered w/ to provide Floridians free rides to & from shelters in counties evacuating for . Get a ride:

📲 Open the Uber app
👤 Tap Account on the bottom right & tap Wallet
✅ Add promo code MILTONRELIEF

Find a state-approved shelter: FloridaDisaster.org/Shelter-Status.

Also, there will be free shuttles operating in Pinellas, Pasco & Hillsborough counties assisting with evacuations to shelters.

This shuttle is free & requires no reservation. Times & locations can be found at FloridaDisaster.org/Updates.

10/07/2024

Posted Monday Evening 10/7/2024: *** MILTON EXPLODES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 180 MPH WINDS & POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ***

I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH – poses the greatest surge threat to west-central Florida, including Tampa Bay, since 1921. The threat to the entire West Coast of Florida is truly exceptional and the area between Venice and Crystal River does not have the living memory of a direct impact from a major hurricane.

PLEASE - If you live on the West Coast of Florida and are told to evacuate, please do so. Go!! Get out!! You do not want to mess with this hurricane. A significant storm surge and very strong winds are expected across a large swath of the West Coast of Florida and it’s a storm you do not want to stay around for.

This has the very real potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.

For the latest on Milton including maps, data, advisories and lots of other information, just go to our Milton storm page at https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al142024/ .

You can read our latest discussions and updates on Hurricane Milton by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/discussions/ .

Also, you can subscribe and take advantage of our half-off lifetime subscription special by going to the following link -
https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/lifetime-subscription-special/

I WANT TO BE COMPLETELY BLUNT HERE - If you get an order to evacuate, you need to leave. It’s as simple as that. Help is not coming for you if you get into trouble in the eye wall of a major hurricane when you’re in 7 feet of water that’s rising all around you inside your home, or trying frantically to cut a hole in your roof as you’re stuck in your attic because the surge has reached you in your attic and you’re about to drown. These things happened during the Tampa 1921 hurricane and they have happened in other areas along the coast during other major surge events. These things have happened before and they will happen again.

Follow all evacuation orders to save your life!!

Also, if you live within 50 miles of where the eye is crossing Florida and you live in a mobile home, you should also evacuate due to the likelihood of your mobile home being severely damaged by strong winds.

10/06/2024

Posted Late Sunday Afternoon 10/6/2024: *** HURRICANE MILTON IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING & IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IMPACT ON FLORIDA'S WEST COAST WITH IMPACTS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT ***

UGH!!! Here we go again!! Less than 2 weeks after Helene made landfall, it appears very likely that will impact the Florida Peninsula as a major hurricane. What is uncertain right now is where exactly the eye of the hurricane will make landfall along Florida’s West Coast. That said, there is a very high likelihood that a destructive storm surge of 10 to 15-plus feet will impact west-central and southwest Florida on Wednesday leading to the possibility of the worst surge in the Tampa Bay area since the 1921 hurricane. Additionally, widespread tropical storm to hurricane wind impacts and heavy rain and flood impacts are also expected across much of the rest of the Florida Peninsula.

Those of you living in low-lying and surge prone areas along Florida’s West Coast from Naples northward to Cedar Key, including Tampa Bay, should follow all evacuation orders. If you are instructed to evacuate, then please do so, if you are able to.

For the latest on Milton including maps, data, advisories and lots of other information, just go to our Milton storm page at https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al142024/ .

You can read our latest discussions and updates on Hurricane Milton by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/discussions/ .

Also, you can subscribe and take advantage of our half-off lifetime subscription special by going to the following link - https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/lifetime-subscription-special/ .

MY THINKING AS OF RIGHT NOW IS for Milton to make landfall along Florida’s West Coast in the area around Bradenton, Sarasota and Venice late Wednesday afternoon as an upper end Category 3 to Category 4 hurricane with 120-135 mph winds. I then still think that Milton will cross the Florida Peninsula very near the I-4 corridor leading hurricane conditions to occur across not only Central Florida but also across the Space Coast of Florida and possibly into parts of the First Coast of Florida.

A couple of other things that I wanted to mention – First is that a storm moving from west to east into the west coast of Florida will have the worst storm surge on the south side of the storm and the worst winds will be on the north side of where it makes landfall. Milton is going to be impacting an area that’s already extremely vulnerable due to the impacts Helene just produced. This is, sadly, going to just add insult to injury. Start preparing now for this storm.

Also, those of you along Florida’s West Coast should be taking pictures with timestamps on them of the current conditions of their homes. Two claims from two different storms could be confusing and make filing those claims difficult.

FORECAST IMPACTS:
HEAVY RAIN: Heavy rain with flooding is going to be a major impact with Milton and will affect a large part of the Florida Peninsula.

This heavy rain has already begun across parts of the Florida Peninsula and will continue right through the middle part of this coming week. Widespread rain totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across much of the Florida Peninsula with totals of 10-12 inches possible along Florida’s West Coast and also across Central Florida & along the Space Coast.

Please take this rainfall induced flooding very seriously as low-lying and flood prone areas in Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville will likely flood over the next few days.

STORM SURGE: A devastating to catastrophic storm surge of 10 to 15-plus feet looks likely to occur on Wednesday into Wednesday night along Florida’s West Coast and in particular from about Tampa and points south.

At this point, areas from Sarasota southward through Naples and Fort Myers has a higher threat of seeing an extremely devastating storm surge. If you are in a surge zone, prepare now to evacuate and do so when ordered to.

As for the Tampa Bay area and areas around the west-central coast of Florida, there is a little more uncertainty as to how high the surge may get and this depends on where the eye of the hurricane crosses the coast. If the center of the hurricane passes to the south of Tampa Bay, an offshore wind would lead to very little surge. This would be an ideal scenario, for sure. On the other hand, if Milton moves right over Tampa or to the north of Tampa, onshore winds would drive a surge of 10 to 15 feet or more into Tampa Bay and these are levels not seen since the hurricanes of 1848 and 1921.

My recommendation to those of you in Tampa, St. Petersburg, Palm Harbor and Bradenton is to prepare for a worst case scenario and hope that it doesn’t happen. There is very little room for error when it comes to figuring out whether Milton will track over or to the north of Tampa or not and the consequences of not evacuating are extremely dire. You just can’t afford to roll the dice and risk your life by not evacuating. If your flood zone is told to evacuate, then evacuate, if you are able to.

Finally, given the recovery operations still ongoing along the west coast of Florida, this sort of a significant surge is going to not only hamper recovery operations, but will set those recovery efforts back significantly.

WIND: Hurricane force winds with significant impacts are going to be an issue across not only coastal parts of Western Florida, but also across inland parts of Central Florida, including Orlando Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Also, hurricane conditions are expected on the eastern coast of Florida and in particular along the Space Coast Wednesday evening into the overnight hours of Wednesday night.

Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are expected across the rest of the Florida Peninsula throughout Wednesday and Wednesday night. One area that may not see tropical storm conditions is far South Florida and the Keys.

FINALLY – I STRONGLY urge you to continue preparing across the Florida Peninsula and particularly along the West Coast of Florida for a major hurricane hit.

Nothing good is happening right now with Milton and I hate this is happening yet again!! We’re facing a compounded threat with few precedents in hurricane history, as only 1926, 1950, 2004, and 2005 saw two Category 3 or higher landfalls in Florida. It looks nearly certain that 2024 will join that list with Helene and now Milton going down as as a devastating one-two punch for Florida.

I know that we are all exhausted already. You are, I am. That is reality and I know that. Unfortunately, we also have to prepare and if necessary evacuate because the surge, wind and rain threat from Milton requires us to save your life and your family’s life and protect property.

10/05/2024

Posted Saturday Afternoon 10/5/2024: *** MILTON IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIG TIME HURRICANE IMPACT ON FLORIDA'S WEST COAST WEDNESDAY WITH IMPACTS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ***

We now have Tropical Storm that's located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. I cannot emphasize enough how worried and concerned I am as to the potential significant hurricane impacts along not only the west coast of Florida, but also across much of the Florida Peninsula. In particular, the entire I-4 corridor could be hit particularly hard by Milton. Unfortunately, this looks like it might be another big hurricane hit.

For the latest on Milton including maps, data, advisories and lots of other information, just go to our Milton storm page at https://crownweather.com/active-storms/al142024/

A really long and detailed discussion was sent out to Crown Weather PLUS subscribers a few hours ago. You can read that discussion by going to https://crownweather.com/tropical-storm-milton-forms-over-the-southwestern-gulf-of-mexico-is-expected-to-be-a-big-hurricane-impact-for-much-of-the-florida-peninsula-tuesday-night-through-wednesday/ .

Also, I wanted to let everyone know once again that from now until 11:59 pm Eastern Time On Tuesday October 15th, I'm offering half-off a lifetime subscription to Crown Weather PLUS. This special offer will give you the opportunity to get the most bang out of your buck.

Our special price for a lifetime subscription to Crown Weather Plus is $275 (normal price is $550). For the price of a 3 year subscription, you can be ensured that you will be subscribed indefinitely.

You can subscribe to a lifetime Crown Weather PLUS package by going to https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/lifetime-subscription-special/ .

FORECAST IMPACTS:
- HEAVY RAIN: A prolonged heavy rainfall event is expected prior to Milton arriving and this will lead to a significant flood threat across a large part of the Florida Peninsula.

The first round of heavy rain is expected during Sunday on both sides of the Florida Peninsula – From Tampa and points south on the west coast and from Vero Beach to Miami on the east coast.

The second round of heavy rain is expected during Monday across Central and South Florida.

The heavy rain associated with Milton is then expected to arrive late Tuesday night and then continue through Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Rainfall totals from Sunday to Thursday is expected to be in the 4 to 8 inch range across a large part of the Florida Peninsula and this will likely lead to flood problems.

- STORM SURGE: The storm surge threat from Milton looks a lot more significant than what was thought yesterday. If Milton does make landfall as a major hurricane, it’ll push a 8 to 16 foot storm into the West Coast of Florida, especially from about Palm Harbor and Tampa and points south.

Given the recovery operations still ongoing along the west coast of Florida, this sort of a significant surge is going to not only hamper recovery operations, but will set those recovery efforts back significantly.

- WIND: It looks like hurricane force winds are quite possible across the entire I-4 corridor with Milton from areas Tampa through Orlando to the Space Coast during Wednesday.

Elsewhere, tropical storm force winds are expected across the rest of the Florida Peninsula from late Tuesday night through Wednesday. One area that may not see tropical storm conditions is far South Florida and the Keys.

FINALLY – I STRONGLY urge you to start preparing NOW across the Florida Peninsula and particularly along the West Coast of Florida for a major hurricane hit.

10/04/2024

Posted Friday Evening 10/4/2024: *** GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD END UP BEING BIG TROUBLE FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ***

My full attention is on the Gulf of Mexico where I think it’s very likely that we will see the development of a tropical system late this weekend into early next week. This is a system that those of you in the Florida Peninsula need to watch extremely closely.

In fact, I do think that we need to start taking the threat for yet another tropical storm or even hurricane impact on the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday much more seriously.

At this point, my thinking is for this system to peak at an upper end tropical storm or perhaps a very low end hurricane with 60-75 mph winds that takes a track that brings it right across Central Florida. It’s impacts, however, will probably affect much of, if not all of the Florida Peninsula. This is a very early call and a lot can change in the next few days, so stay tuned.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS: Heavy rain and storm surge may end up being the biggest threats with this system.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT – Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches looks quite plausible across Central and South Florida throughout next week. This heavy rain looks to come in two parts with the first round of heavy rain occurring Sunday into Monday and the second round of heavy rain occurring with the tropical system from Tuesday afternoon through all of Wednesday. This heavy rain will lead to a flood threat across Central and South Florida, especially starting on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night and continuing through the second half of next week.

STORM SURGE THREAT – Given the recovery operations still ongoing along the west coast of Florida, any surge is something that’s going to be significant and will severely hamper recovery operations. If this system does reach upper level tropical storm strength, then a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet would end up becoming possible, especially from about Tampa and points south on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

In addition, tropical storm force winds on the order of 40-60 mph in gusts could occur across much of Central and South Florida during Tuesday night and Wednesday leading to some power outages and some tree damage.

I will be sending out frequent updates in the coming days to Crown Weather PLUS subscribers. Not a subscriber? Become one now by going to the following link https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

Also, I wanted to let everyone know once again that from now until 11:59 pm Eastern Time On Tuesday October 15th, I'm offering half-off a lifetime subscription to Crown Weather PLUS. This special offer will give you the opportunity to get the most bang out of your buck.

Our special price for a lifetime subscription to Crown Weather Plus is $275 (normal price is $550). For the price of a 3 year subscription, you can be ensured that you will be subscribed indefinitely.

You can subscribe to a lifetime Crown Weather PLUS package by going to https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/lifetime-subscription-special/ .