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03/28/2025

First WARN Severe Weather Statement
Issued: Friday, March 28, 2025
Valid for: Saturday, March 29 and Sunday, March 30
Areas of Concern: Central Missouri (including Columbia), Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and the Greater St. Louis Metro Area

SATURDAY – LIMITED SEVERE RISK FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI

Overview:
A weakening upper-level disturbance lifting into the region Saturday will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily impacting central Missouri, including the Columbia area. While most storms will remain sub-severe, a few stronger cells may develop in central Missouri, with a much lower threat extending into the St. Louis metro, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois.

Meteorological Setup:

A lead impulse embedded in a dampening southern trough will move across the region.

Low-level moisture will be present, but instability remains marginal with modest lapse rates and weak forcing.

Capping inversion and limited surface-based instability will keep most convection disorganized.

Central Missouri sits closer to the approaching frontal zone and forcing, increasing the chance for isolated stronger activity.

Hazards (Central MO only):

Brief downpours

Isolated thunder and lightning

A low-end risk of small hail or gusty winds in isolated stronger storms

Lesser Threat Zones:

For St. Louis, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois, the environment appears too capped and lacking in lift to support more than isolated showers or an occasional rumble of thunder.

Bottom Line for Saturday:
The primary concern lies across central Missouri, where limited instability and forcing could support a few stronger storms. However, the overall severe threat remains low and not widespread. This setup transitions into a much more dynamic and dangerous pattern on Sunday.
SUNDAY – WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY

Overview:
A powerful spring storm system will impact the region Sunday with widespread severe thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours. The risk includes central Missouri (Columbia), the St. Louis metro area, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois. All hazards are possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Timing & Progression:

Late morning to early afternoon: Storms initiate near Columbia and central Missouri

Mid to late afternoon: Storms intensify and move into the St. Louis metro and southern Illinois

Late afternoon to early evening: Activity pushes through southeast Missouri and deeper into southern IL

Meteorological Setup:

A strong upper trough and surface cold front push into a moist, unstable, and sheared environment.

Surface dewpoints climb into the 60s, and surface-based CAPE values exceed 1500 J/kg.

Deep-layer shear between 40–60 knots and forecast hodographs suggest supercell potential.

Low-level helicity values (0–1 km SRH > 250 m²/s²) support the potential for rotating storms and tornadoes.

Storm mode will likely begin semi-discrete, evolving into a broken line or clusters, depending on convective trends.

Hazards (All Areas):

Large hail up to 2 inches

Damaging straight-line winds over 60 mph

Tornadoes, including the potential for strong or long-lived tornadoes, especially in the St. Louis metro, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois

PREPAREDNESS & ACTION STEPS

Confidence is high in the potential for a significant severe weather event Sunday, especially for locations east of Columbia. While Saturday brings only a limited risk to central Missouri, the Sunday event is widespread and potentially dangerous.

What You Should Do:

Review your severe weather safety plan

Have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially if traveling or away from home

Ensure your weather radios and phone alerts are enabled and charged

Stay tuned for frequent updates Saturday and Sunday morning as forecast confidence and timing continue to sharpen

Stay alert. Stay weather-aware. The First WARN Weather Team will provide continuous updates as the weekend storm threat unfolds.

— Dr. Nick Palisch, First WARN Meteorologist

03/28/2025

First WARN 10-Day Forecast
Issued: Friday, March 28, 2025
Dr. Nick Palisch | FirstWARN Meteorologist

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Warm, windy conditions today as a strong southwest flow dominates the region.

Scattered showers return late tonight into Saturday, mainly affecting southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday afternoon and evening across Columbia, the St. Louis metro, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois.

All severe hazards are possible: large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

FRIDAY (Today)

A well-developed warm sector has overspread the region. Strong southwesterly surface flow combined with a defined thermal ridge aloft supports well-above-normal temperatures and gusty winds. Wind gusts may exceed 30 mph at times. High-level cloud cover may limit solar heating early, but clearing will allow for warm air advection to fully mix into the boundary layer through the afternoon. The result is a dry, breezy day with elevated fire weather conditions west of the Mississippi.

SATURDAY

As an upper-level trough over Texas begins to lift northeast, showers increase late tonight and expand through the day Saturday, primarily impacting southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. These showers are tied to weak mid-level ascent, low-level jet convergence, and the residual influence of the departing trough. Instability remains marginal and capping remains in place across most of the region, which will limit any thunderstorm organization. Meanwhile, areas north and west of the rain axis, including Columbia and portions of the St. Louis metro, remain relatively dry and warm.

This "split" pattern on Saturday sets the stage for a more volatile environment by Sunday, as residual moisture and cloud cover retreat, and destabilization resumes.
SUNDAY – SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

The most impactful weather of the 10-day forecast period is expected Sunday afternoon and evening across Columbia, the St. Louis region, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois.

A progressive and amplifying upper trough moves into the Mid-Mississippi Valley during the day Sunday. A surface cold front—driven by a deepening low over the Upper Great Lakes—approaches from the west. This synoptic setup provides strong upper-level support and broad ascent, while the surface environment becomes increasingly primed for severe convection.

Key meteorological signals:

Strong destabilization: With sufficient clearing behind any early-day showers, surface dewpoints climb into the lower 60s across much of the region. Combined with steep mid-level lapse rates, this supports moderate surface-based instability, favoring strong updraft development.

Robust wind shear: Forecast hodographs show increasing low-level helicity (0–1 km SRH >250 m²/s²), and deep-layer shear vectors align orthogonally to the advancing front. This supports the potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of a broken line of storms.

Storm Mode & Timing: Initiation is most likely between early to mid-afternoon near Columbia, spreading eastward toward the St. Louis metro by late afternoon, and impacting southeast Missouri and southern Illinois by evening.

Threats include:

Large hail (due to steep lapse rates and vigorous mid-level updrafts)

Damaging winds (especially if storms organize into short line segments)

Tornadoes, including the potential for strong or long-lived tornadoes, given favorable thermodynamics and hodograph structure.

This is a setup that warrants close attention. While details on storm coverage and placement will continue to evolve, the ingredients for a widespread, significant severe weather outbreak are clearly coming together across our region.

MONDAY

In the wake of the cold front, strong cold air advection takes hold. A sprawling surface high presses in from the west, ushering in a cooler, more stable air mass. Any lingering clouds will give way to clearing skies. Temperatures tumble significantly, marking a sharp transition from the active and warm weekend pattern.

TUESDAY

Return flow begins to reestablish as high pressure shifts east. Winds turn southerly once again, allowing warmer air to begin filtering back into the region. A mostly quiet day with increasing high clouds.

WEDNESDAY

Another upper-level trough begins to influence the central U.S., but forecast uncertainty remains high. Some guidance places the trough as far west as the Rockies, while others bring it into the Mississippi Valley. Moisture return and instability will be key to determine the potential for another round of storms—possibly severe.

THURSDAY

Depending on the evolution of Wednesday's system, Thursday could be an active day with showers and thunderstorms, or more stable if the main trough axis passes early. Forecast confidence remains low, but the potential exists for renewed convection by late week.

FRIDAY (April 4)

As the midweek system exits, drier and more tranquil conditions return. Some wraparound clouds may linger, but cooler and quieter weather is expected by day's end.

SATURDAY (April 5)

Surface high pressure settles back into the region. A calm and stable start to the weekend is expected, with seasonal conditions and light winds.

Meteorological Summary:
This weekend presents a classic spring transition pattern with vigorous upper-level support, surface instability, and wind shear combining to produce a dangerous severe weather environment Sunday. Columbia, St. Louis, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois lie within the heart of this risk zone. Forecast trends will need to be monitored closely over the next 24–48 hours for refined timing and threat zones. After the frontal passage, a strong cooldown starts the workweek before the next active system approaches midweek.

— FirstWARN Weather Team

03/27/2025

First WARN 10-Day Forecast
Issued: Thursday, March 27, 2025
Dr. Nick Palisch | FirstWARN Meteorologist
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES

Today: Scattered thunderstorms develop across the region. A few may produce hail up to quarter-size, especially north of I-70 this afternoon and evening.

Sunday: Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms possible from Columbia through the St. Louis metro, into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Main threats include damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.

March ends with a sharp cooldown Monday, followed by a milder, active pattern mid-to-late next week.

THURSDAY (Today)

A lifting warm front, aided by low- to mid-level warm air advection and modest moisture return, sets the stage for scattered elevated thunderstorms. With forecast MUCAPE between 500–1250 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates steepening, marginally severe hail is possible—particularly north of I-70 this afternoon into early evening. Thunderstorm coverage will be scattered, but aligned storm motions along the front may allow multiple rounds in northern Missouri and west-central Illinois.
FRIDAY

Dry conditions dominate as the warm sector settles in. Southwesterly winds increase through the day due to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Continued warm advection and strong mixing within the boundary layer will aid in sustained breezy conditions. Despite mostly sunny skies, expect elevated fire weather concerns west of the Mississippi due to dry fuels and gusty winds.
SATURDAY

A weak shortwave aloft coupled with deep moisture will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. However, weak lapse rates and poor upper-level support limit overall storm organization. Best rain chances (60–80%) are focused across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, where integrated water v***r transport is maximized. Instability remains marginal, limiting any severe risk.
SUNDAY – SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL

A stronger upper-level trough ejects out of the southern Plains and approaches Missouri and Illinois. This system taps into ample Gulf moisture, increasing low-level dewpoints and destabilizing the boundary layer. While there is still some spread in model solutions, several ingredients are aligning:

Sufficient instability (surface-based and elevated CAPE)

Increasing mid-level flow and deep-layer shear

Surface convergence along a sharpening cold front

The combination of these factors suggests a broad severe weather risk extending across central Missouri (including Columbia), the St. Louis metro area, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois.
Storms may begin as elevated convection early Sunday, with surface-based storms more likely by afternoon and evening. These will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes—especially south and east of I-70 where instability may be maximized. This is a high-impact weather day for the region and will need close monitoring.
MONDAY

A strong cold front passes through, ushering in a much cooler air mass. Cold air advection and post-frontal subsidence will dominate the day. Skies gradually clear as surface high pressure builds in. After days of well-above-average warmth, this abrupt cooldown may be a shock to the system.
TUESDAY

High pressure shifts east, bringing return flow and modest warm advection back to the region. Expect quiet weather and moderating temperatures under mostly sunny skies. Surface winds turn southerly once again.
WEDNESDAY

An approaching upper-level disturbance and returning moisture will bring increasing clouds and rising rain chances. The environment may become weakly unstable by late in the day, with a few thunderstorms possible overnight into Thursday.
THURSDAY

A more robust system may impact the region with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Details on timing and severity are still being refined, but another active weather day is possible.
FRIDAY (April 4)

Rain chances decrease as the system exits. Weak cold advection follows, and drier air arrives from the northwest. Partial clearing expected late in the day.
SATURDAY (April 5)

Surface ridging returns with seasonable and quiet weather to start the weekend. Temperatures moderate with light winds and a mix of sun and clouds.

Meteorological Insight:
Today’s system hinges on modest instability and elevated lift along a retreating warm front, favoring hail as the primary concern. Sunday’s system features greater synoptic support and stronger thermodynamics, with enough shear and instability for organized convection. Model trends suggest the Columbia-St. Louis corridor southeastward into southern IL/MO is particularly vulnerable. While the strength of the upper-level wave is still uncertain, multiple ensemble members and analog guidance (CIPS) point to an environment supportive of severe storms. The trailing front then ushers in a 15–20° drop in temperatures to start next week. The active pattern resumes by midweek, continuing the spring storm cycle.

— FirstWARN Weather Team

03/26/2025

FirstWARN 10-Day Forecast

Issued: Wednesday, March 26, 2025
KEY MESSAGES

Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms through the weekend.

A transition from dry, stable conditions to an unsettled pattern begins Thursday.

Thursday evening poses a low-end severe weather threat for the northern half of Missouri and far west-central Illinois.

Sunday remains the most notable severe weather day, though the threat is still highly conditional based on system strength and timing.

WEDNESDAY – WARM, SUNNY, AND DRY

Surface high pressure dominates the region, supporting mostly sunny skies. Deep boundary layer mixing, thanks to warm and dry conditions, will push relative humidity values into critically low territory, especially in southeast Missouri. Though wind speeds remain modest, the dry fuels and low RH suggest a heightened risk for fire spread, even without formal warnings. No precipitation is expected.
THURSDAY – INCREASING STORMS, ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE

A weak surface low develops across the High Plains and lifts a warm front through Missouri. Elevated moisture and marginal instability may allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon and evening. While capping will limit surface-based development, elevated convection may become strong enough for isolated instances of hail and gusty winds, especially along and north of I-70. This is where elevated instability and modest shear (30–35 kt) will be sufficient to support a few stronger cores.
FRIDAY – DRY, BREEZY, AND VERY WARM

After the warm front exits, the region enjoys a break in precipitation. South to southwest winds will become gusty ahead of the next upper-level disturbance. Despite an increase in high clouds late, dry conditions are expected during the day with only a low probability of isolated evening showers.
SATURDAY – SHOWERS LIKELY, LOW SEVERE THREAT

An upper-level wave embedded in a broader ridge translates across the region. A surge in moisture and broad-scale lift will result in scattered to widespread rain. However, instability appears limited both at the surface and aloft, reducing the risk for thunderstorms and keeping severe weather unlikely. The highest rainfall totals are expected across southwest Illinois and east of the St. Louis metro area.
SUNDAY – CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER SETUP

Forecast models diverge on the evolution of a more potent shortwave approaching from the west. If the system slows and deepens, a surface cyclone could mature near northwest Missouri, drawing rich moisture and weakly capped instability into the region. This would create a favorable setup for all modes of severe weather, including hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. However, faster and weaker solutions continue to appear in ensemble data, which would shift the threat south or limit it altogether. Sunday is a day to monitor closely.
MONDAY – SHOWERS, TURNING COOLER

Residual moisture and a trailing disturbance may keep light rain over the region. Behind Sunday’s front, a noticeably cooler airmass settles in. Though temperatures will be much lower than the prior weekend, they remain above freezing and well above climatological norms, eliminating any wintry concerns.
TUESDAY – BRIEF LULL, DRY AND MILD

Surface high pressure builds briefly over the region, resulting in a mostly quiet day. Expect sunshine with a rebound in temperatures.
WEDNESDAY – NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES

Uncertainty grows again by mid-week as another trough and associated surface low approach from the west. Moisture return, instability, and the positioning of the surface front will dictate storm potential. Some models support a wide range of possible outcomes, including the return of strong storms and another warm surge.

Bottom Line:
We are entering a more active weather regime with two key periods to monitor—Thursday evening for isolated severe weather in northern Missouri and Sunday for a more significant (but still uncertain) severe weather setup. Stay informed and keep checking FirstWARN updates as forecast confidence improves heading into the weekend.

03/25/2025

⛈️ First WARN 10-Day Forecast: March 25 – April 3, 2025

Fire Danger Today, Warming Trend Begins, Weekend Storms Possible

🔥 Tuesday: Fire Danger in the Ozarks

Today brings sunshine, breezy northwest winds, and warm temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across much of central and southeast Missouri. While recent rainfall helped the northern half of the region, the Ozarks remain quite dry. Combine that with gusty winds and low humidity—and you’ve got elevated fire danger, especially in areas that missed out on weekend rain.

Fires could spread quickly and behave erratically. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged in the Ozarks today.

Skies remain mostly sunny throughout the afternoon, with a slight chance of a quick, light shower across parts of south-central Illinois. Any rain will be brief and limited.

🌤️ Wednesday: Quiet but Dry

Wednesday brings another dry, mild day with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Winds relax, but humidity will be very low, with RH values dipping into the teens in parts of southern Missouri. While not officially flagged as a fire danger day, conditions will still be dry enough for caution.

🌡️ Thursday Through Saturday: Warming Up and Turning Unsettled

Beginning Thursday, a more active spring pattern sets in. A warm front lifts north, and with it, temperatures climb—reaching into the mid-70s by Friday and possibly near 80 by Saturday.

Showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. Instability looks weak, but some hail may be possible north of I-70 late Thursday. Most storms, however, will be garden-variety.

Friday night into Saturday could bring more widespread rain and embedded thunder, particularly across eastern Missouri and western Illinois. Severe weather is not expected at this point, as upper-level winds and surface instability look weak and capped. That said, Saturday will likely be the warmest day of the stretch, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80°.

⛈️ Sunday: Monitoring for Conditional Severe Weather

Sunday brings the most attention in this 10-day period, as a stronger upper-level wave approaches from the Plains. Models are divided on how this plays out, with some showing a stronger low and others a weaker, more disorganized system.

Right now, the potential for severe weather on Sunday is there—but highly conditional. The biggest questions are:

Will instability (CAPE) be sufficient for storm development?

Will timing allow the atmosphere to recharge from Saturday’s rain?

How organized will the upper-level support be?

What we do know: Wind shear will be strong, and if any surface-based storms can develop, they could be capable of producing damaging winds or even an isolated tornado. However, this setup bears little resemblance to the more widespread severe weather events we've seen earlier this month.

We’re watching this closely, and First WARN will provide detailed updates throughout the week.

🌥️ Monday and Beyond: Unsettled Pattern Continues

Behind Sunday’s potential storm system, the weather turns cooler—but not cold. Temperatures dip back into the 60s early next week with lingering rain chances Monday as the system exits. A more zonal (west-to-east) flow aloft will likely keep the pattern unsettled, with additional showers possible mid-to-late next week.

🌟 First WARN Key Messages:

Elevated fire danger today across the Ozarks—avoid any outdoor burning.

A warming trend begins Thursday, with highs reaching near 80° by Saturday.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms are likely through the weekend.

Sunday's severe weather threat remains uncertain but will be closely monitored.

03/24/2025

⚠️ First WARN Severe Weather Outlook- Issued Monday, March 24, 2025

Multi-Day Severe Weather Threat: Saturday, March 29 & Sunday, March 30, 2025

Impact Areas: St. Louis • Columbia, MO • Southeast Missouri • Southern Illinois

Overview: Widespread Severe Storms Likely This Weekend

A powerful spring storm system is expected to bring a two-day severe weather threat to the central U.S., including eastern and central Missouri, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois—and yes, both St. Louis and Columbia—on both Saturday and Sunday.

This will not be a quick, passing event. Instead, this system will unfold over multiple days with an environment capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.
Saturday, March 29 – Severe Weather Begins

By Saturday afternoon, a strengthening upper-level system will spread across the Plains, pushing a surface low and front into Missouri. At the same time, warm, moist air will surge northward, setting the stage for scattered to numerous severe storms by late afternoon and evening.

🌀 Supercell thunderstorms are possible
🌪️ Tornado potential—especially with isolated storms ahead of the front
💨 Damaging wind gusts
🌩️ Large hail
🌧️ Localized flooding

First impact zone: Columbia to St. Louis, southeast Missouri, and into southern Illinois.
Sunday, March 30 – Continued and Widespread Severe Threat

On Sunday, the storm system intensifies and shifts slightly east—but the threat for severe storms continues across the entire region, including St. Louis and Columbia, as well as southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

As the front slows and interacts with abundant moisture and instability, widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, potentially forming lines or clusters capable of:

🌪️ Tornadoes
💨 Widespread damaging winds
🌩️ Large hail
🌧️ Flash flooding from repeated rounds of heavy rain

Storms could develop as early as midday and continue through the evening.
First WARN Key Message:

This is a multi-day severe weather event with the potential to impact millions across the Midwest. While some timing details may still shift, confidence is growing in the threat for all severe weather hazards across BOTH Saturday and Sunday.

✅ Make sure your severe weather safety plan is ready
✅ Check your NOAA Weather Radio and phone alerts
✅ Stay tuned to First WARN for updated timing, threats, and preparedness info

03/24/2025

10-Day First WARN Forecast March 24, 2025

Seasonable Now, But Stormier Days Ahead
Calm and Seasonable to Start the Week.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND!

The first half of the week will be noticeably quieter. After Sunday’s rain and thunderstorms, high pressure and cooler northwesterly flow settle in. Expect mostly dry conditions with near-normal temperatures through Wednesday. Breezy conditions may linger today, especially across northeast Missouri and parts of Illinois, with afternoon wind gusts and low humidity prompting localized fire weather concerns in spots that missed out on heavier rain.

A weak disturbance tonight may spark a few showers across southern Illinois, but most areas stay dry. Another light rain chance follows Tuesday night, but again—minimal accumulation is expected.
Thursday Brings a Pattern Shift

By Thursday, we transition into a warmer and more unsettled pattern. A developing ridge and increasing south-southwesterly flow will pull in warmer temperatures and rising humidity levels. A weak upper-level disturbance may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms sometime late Wednesday night into Thursday.

While exact timing and intensity are still a bit uncertain, Thursday marks the beginning of a more active stretch of weather.
Friday: A Brief Pause Before a Bigger Weekend Storm System

Friday may offer a brief break in rain chances, but the warmth and moisture continue to build. This sets the stage for a stronger and more organized system to move in over the weekend.
Saturday–Sunday: Watching for Strong to Severe Storms

Confidence is growing that a more dynamic storm system will move through the region over the weekend. While timing and specific track details are still being resolved, nearly all forecast models suggest widespread rainfall and thunderstorms at some point Saturday through Sunday.

Early signals show increased moisture, instability, and stronger wind fields, which all support the potential for severe weather across parts of the region—including central and eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, and surrounding areas.

This could include:

Strong to damaging winds

Large hail

Heavy rainfall with localized flooding

An isolated tornado threat, especially if storm organization increases

As this system evolves, we’ll be able to refine the timeline and threats—but this weekend is shaping up to be the most active weather period in the 10-day forecast. Plan now and stay alert to future First WARN updates, especially if you have outdoor plans.
Warming Into Next Week

Behind the weekend storm system, temperatures are expected to remain above average to close out March. A few lingering showers may persist early next week, but confidence is high that spring warmth will stick around for the final stretch of the month.

KEY MESSAGE:
The calm start to the week won’t last. A more active spring pattern returns Thursday and especially this weekend. Saturday and Sunday both carry the potential for strong to severe storms across the region. Now is the time to stay weather-aware and review your severe weather safety plans.

03/23/2025

FirstWARN Alert: Tornado Watch for Pemiscot County in MO until 11:00pm CDT. From Meteorologist Nick Palisch

03/23/2025

FirstWARN 10-Day Forecast
Valid Beginning Sunday, March 23, 2025
WEATHER HEADLINES:

Stormy Start: Showers and thunderstorms exit east Sunday with gusty winds behind a cold front.

Midweek Calm: Sunshine and mild temps dominate Monday through Wednesday.

Warm & Wet Finish: Active pattern returns Thursday through the weekend with increasing thunderstorm chances.

Forecast Narrative:

Sunday, March 23:
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning across much of Missouri and Illinois, gradually exiting east by early afternoon. Rainfall amounts of a quarter to one inch will be common, though isolated narrow bands could receive up to two inches where training occurs. A few stronger storms may produce hail up to the size of quarters. Behind the cold front, gusty westerly winds will develop this afternoon, especially north of I-70, with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts approaching 40 mph. Skies will begin to clear from west to east later in the day. Highs will remain mild in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday, March 24:
High pressure builds in behind the front, bringing sunshine and seasonal temperatures. Despite a dry atmosphere and pleasant conditions, breezy northwest winds will linger during the afternoon due to deep vertical mixing and efficient momentum transfer from strong flow aloft. Fire weather conditions may be elevated in areas that received little rainfall on Sunday, especially where vegetation dries quickly. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday, March 25:
A mild and tranquil day is expected as weak ridging dominates the central U.S. under northwesterly flow. Highs will climb 5 to 10 degrees above average, with readings in the lower to mid 70s. Winds will be lighter than Monday, and skies will remain mostly sunny to partly cloudy. With dry air and little wind, it will be one of the most pleasant days of the week.

Wednesday, March 26:
A weak cold front will pass through the region during the day, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a modest uptick in cloud cover. Precipitation chances remain minimal as the front appears moisture-starved, but a few isolated light showers can’t be ruled out. Highs will remain near average, ranging from the mid 60s to near 70.

Thursday, March 27:
A pattern shift begins to take shape as a split-flow regime aloft develops. This will allow for the arrival of an active southern stream and increasing warm air advection. Moisture begins to return from the south, and rain chances increase by afternoon or evening. The day starts dry and mild, with highs in the low to mid 70s, but showers and thunderstorms may begin to develop by late in the day or overnight.

Friday, March 28:
The warm and moist pattern continues as deeper Gulf moisture becomes entrenched across the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, though the exact timing and placement of heavier rain will depend on the evolution of embedded disturbances. Temperatures may be slightly cooler where rain is more persistent, but highs will still generally reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. The atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable, setting the stage for potential thunderstorm activity.

Saturday, March 29:
Another wave of low pressure rides along the stalled boundary, keeping the region in a warm, wet pattern. Continued shower and storm chances are likely, with locally heavy rain possible. There may also be a few strong storms if instability overlaps with stronger forcing. Highs will stay in the low to mid 70s, with dew points increasing, making it feel more humid and springlike.

Sunday, March 30:
Rain and storm chances persist, particularly across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, though coverage may begin to decrease slightly by late in the day. The upper-level ridge may start to shift east, allowing for partial clearing by evening. Temperatures remain warm in the 70s, and if any sunshine breaks out earlier, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out.

Monday, March 31:
Drying may finally begin as the system departs, with decreasing rain chances and increasing sunshine expected. However, lingering moisture and instability may still spark a few showers or storms early. Highs will remain mild in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will shift more westerly, ushering in drier air through the day.

Tuesday, April 1:
April begins on a pleasant note with sunshine returning and temperatures holding in the seasonal 65 to 70 range. Winds will be light, skies mostly clear, and humidity levels lower, offering a brief but welcome break from the active weather pattern before additional storm systems potentially return later in the week.

Wednesday, April 2:
A new wave of energy from the southern stream may begin to lift into the region, leading to increasing clouds and renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms by late day or overnight. Models continue to show warmer temperatures ahead of this system, with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s. With moisture and instability building once again, a few stronger storms may be possible depending on the timing and strength of the system. This may mark the beginning of another active stretch heading into the first full weekend of April.

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