12/09/2024
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY, DECEMBER 10
Bottom Line:
Multiple rounds of rain are forecast starting this afternoon and lasting into Wednesday morning. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall during the day tomorrow into tomorrow night as a front temporarily stalls over the region. Total rainfall amounts of 2" to 4" are expected for areas along and northwest of a line from Panama City to Tifton with locally higher amounts of up to 6" possible. There is also the potential for a few strong to severe storms ahead of the front on Tuesday.
Overview:
Heavy Rainfall Threat
An anomalously moist air mass for this time of year will lift north into the region today and linger through mid-week. This will result in heavy rainfall across the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and portions of southwestern Georgia with the heaviest rain likely to fall tomorrow into tomorrow night. Rainfall amounts along and northwest of a line from Panama City to Tifton will range from 2-4", tapering off to 2" or less across the Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia.
Given the higher amounts, and a low (10-20%) chance of 4+ inches of rain across the northwestern portion of the forecast area, there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of flash flooding concerns for the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama and portions of southwestern Georgia. Localized rainfall totals could reach 4 to 6 inches in these areas.
Severe Weather Threat
A severe weather threat also exists ahead of the front tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) covering southeastern Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and a large portion of southwestern Georgia. The main concerns at this time are isolated strong to severe wind gusts with some of the stronger storms, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
