Economic Studies Group

02/06/2024

Nearly four years after the onset of Covid-19 how is employment in New York City faring? In this post Dr. James Orr and Gillian Fuchs outline the pattern of recovery of employment in the City and show how employment in different industries is evolving. Read more here:

Gillian Fuchs and James Orr January 31, 2024 Nearly four years after the onset of Covid-19 how is employment in New York City faring? In this post we outline the pattern of recovery of employment in the City and show how employment in different industries is evolving. Employment has just about reach...

03/29/2023

With the Fed raising rates, high inflation, and a possible recession it's never been harder to be a bank. ESG contributor Fotis Siokis analyses the failure of (Silicon Valley Bank ) SVB and what went wrong in this month's article:

March 28,2023On March 10, 2023 the American banking system suffered the second biggest bank collapse in its history. How did this happen? In this post we examine the reasons behind the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which caused tremendous jitters in the financial markets and forced the auth...

09/13/2022

As New York recovers, the current employment landscape is very different than before lock down. Contributors James Orr and Maryam Fatemi explore some post Covid shifts for selected industries and their implications in this month's article. Read more here:

Analysis Articles

01/08/2022

NYC was hard hit by the pandemic and its impact has worsened existing inequalities among blacks and latinos. ESG contributor Fotis Siokis explains more: https://bit.ly/3G9z0qC

01/06/2022

The New York economy has been recovering since the beginning of the covid crises that started two years ago. In this report Dr.Orr provides some insights into the New York labor market, Covid-19, and influences on the recovery going forward. Read more here: Read more here: https://bit.ly/3E7qS8e

09/03/2021

While the pandemic severely affected private-sector industries, state and local public employment has also seen an especially sluggish recovery. ESG contributor shows non-education jobs have particularly slow to return https://bit.ly/3zkmq4n

08/04/2021

The US economy has a labor shortage, the Delta variant, and worrisome inflationary signs. How will the FED react? ESG contributor Fotios Siokis discusses: https://bit.ly/37gTii0

by Siokis Fotios July 30, 2021 As we move away from the virulent pandemic, economic growth is gaining pace, while inflation is threatening to run rampant. With employment still 7.3 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level, how will the Fed respond? Nowadays no question is more vigorously debated th...

05/18/2021

The pandemic has driven most job losses across the city, specifically in the service sector. As the city reopens, NYC begins to prepare for the post Covid economy. ESG contributors Fadime Demiralp and James Orr discuss the future of working in NYC here: https://bit.ly/2SNAHWX

By Fadime Demiralp and James OrrMay 17, 2021Recent employment data for New York show the job recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to contain is continuing but still has ways to go. Support for the recovery has come from several unprecedented actions including

05/02/2021

The covid crisis has impacted severely the supply chains in the global economy. China’s economy was not immune to this phenomenon due to its reliance on foreign trade. ESG contributor Zhuo Xi explores this impact and more in his article: https://bit.ly/3uizYek

By Zhio Xi April 30, 2021   The issue of supply chains has been one of the most discussed economic topics in China recently. Since joining the WTO in 2001, China's integration into the global economy has been accompanied by the reshaping of the global supply chains. Many foreign companies have tran...

02/12/2021

The NY 2020-2021 budget has been heavily impacted by the covid 19 crises. The state has had to find new sources of funding to fill the shortfalls. ESG contributors Merih Uctum and James Orr explain the state plans to raise the funds here: https://bit.ly/3qc7T6f

01/26/2021

Congratulations
to Janet Yellen approval to be treasury chief of the United States! Watch her interview with Paul Krugman to better understand her opinions about a variety of financial topics here: https://bit.ly/3pgGD6f

Fotios Siokis May 30, 2019 On December 10, 2018, the Graduate Center hosted an attention-grabbing discussion on the causes of the Great Recession and the possibility of a future downturn due to high levels of corporate indebtedness. Janet Yellen, the former Federal Reserve Chair, was interviewed by....

01/12/2021

The New York economy has improved in November resulting in a decrease in the state’s unemployment rate which dropped from 9.4% in October to 8.1%. This is despite some slowing in job growth across the state, with 29,500 new positions created in November, down from 32,300 in October. This change mirrors the slowdown of job creation across the country. DSG contributor Dr. Orr explains more about the state of the New York job market.

The number of jobs in New York State continued to increase in November though at a slower pace than in October, even taking into account the phasing out of the 2020 census jobs. The New York State Department of Labor reported that employment statewide increased by 29,500 (seasonally adjusted) in Nov...

12/04/2020

As the US grapples with the COVID-19 pandemic, hiring continues to slow as employers add just 245,000 jobs this month, a figure well below expectations.

Resurgent coronavirus infections are putting a chill on U.S. job creation, manufacturing in China is gaining pace and the final stages of Brexit negotiations are complicating the U.K.’s recovery prospects.

11/02/2020

Unemployment in New York City has decreased from its peak of more than 20% in June to around 14%. However, job growth has begun to slow, as the recovery continues to have an uneven impact across different industries. Employment in the hard-hit construction and retail services industries is rebounding while jobs in accommodation and food service are not. In our latest analysis, ESG contributors Fadime Demiralp and James Orr ask the question, where does the economic recovery stand in New York City?

Fadime Demiralp and James Orr October 31, 2020 Deep declines in employment across New York resulted from the efforts to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Where does the economy stand? What factors will affect the recovery? We address these questions in this post. In March New York declared a state of e...

10/26/2020

Please join the Graduate Center's program in economics for this week's Fall 2020 Seminar in Applied Economics. ESG contributor at Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman will deliver a talk entitled "Why Did the Trade War Fail?" http://bit.ly/krugman-seminar

The Graduate Center, The City University of New York Established in 1961, the Graduate Center of the City University of New York (CUNY) is devoted primarily to doctoral studies and awards most of CUNY's doctoral degrees. An internationally recognized center for advanced studies and a national model....

10/20/2020

The Chinese economy is already recovering from the induced economic crisis presently gripping the world, as the nation's GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter of 2020. China is the only major national economy to grow in 2020. The US economy, on the other hand, is expected to contract by 4.3%.

The third-quarter results put China’s economy back toward its pre-coronavirus trajectory half a year after the pandemic gutted it.

10/05/2020

Efforts by the US Federal Reserve to stabilize the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in inflated amounts of long-term assets held in the Fed’s balance sheet. This shift to a 'balance-sheet policy' will weaken the mechanism of steering the federal funds rate as well as the Fed's ability to implement monetary policy. But how? In the second part of his earlier analysis from July, ESG contributor F. Siokis explains.

Fotis Siokis September 30, 2020 Introduction With an enlarged balance sheet, what is the new operating regime of the Fed (or how does it conduct monetary policy) and what are its options? In this second post we address these questions. In Part 1 we discussed the action taken by the Fed to limit the....

08/24/2020

The US debt is now more than 100 percent of GDP due in part to federal COVID-19 relief, yet interest rates have not soared. ESG contributor Paul Krugman addressed this puzzle in an analysis last year: http://bit.ly/winter-of-debt

The debt of the United States now exceeds the size of its gross domestic product. That was considered a doomsday scenario that would wreck the economy. So far, that hasn’t happened.