Rogue Storm Chasers LLC

09/24/2022

D: Tropical Depression - wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm - wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane - wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane - wind speed greater than 110 MPH

09/23/2022

LOCATION...14.2N 70.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 70.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Northern Venezuela and Northern Colombia: Additional 1 to 2 inches

Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches.

09/18/2022

Moderate to strong destabilization is ongoing across this region from
robust diurnal heating and continued low-level advection of 70s F
surface dewpoints. As inhibition is eroded with approaching dynamic lift, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should support strong updraft development. 45-50 kt of effective shear will favor a cluster
supercell mode with more discrete elements possible farther south
and west where forcing for ascent is more nebulous. The favorable CAPE/shear overlap, 7.5-8C mid-level lapse rates and elongated upper-level hodographs will favor efficient large to very large
(2.5+ in) hail growth with the strongest supercells that will form

09/16/2022

LOCATION...16.0N 59.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

09/09/2022

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

09/04/2022

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

09/03/2022

09/03/2022

Atlantic is finally waking up.

08/27/2022

Coronal Mass Ejections can occur during solar flares unleashing a giant cloud of solar wind particles into space. Here you'll find an overview of the latest CMEs that where detected by the Cactus software of the SIDC. The Cactus software autonomously detects CMEs in image sequences from the LASCO instrument on board SOHO, the result is a list of detections by the software with the characteristics of the CME.

08/27/2022

There is a Slight Risk (2/5) across portions of IA, WI and MN this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts, hail and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with strong to severe storms. Please see your local NWS office or www.spc.noaa.gov for more information.

08/27/2022

C-class solar flare 95%
M-class solar flare 55%
X-class solar flare 25%

08/26/2022

08/26/2022

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1217 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
South central Orange County in central Vermont...
Northeastern Windsor County in southern Vermont...

* Until 100 PM EDT.

* At 1216 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Sharon to South Reading, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

08/26/2022

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Northeast, as well as parts of the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, mean troughing persists over much of the eastern CONUS, south of a large, persistent, quasistationary cyclone over eastern Arctic Canada. Within the associated cyclonic-flow field, a positively tilted shortwave trough was apparent in
moisture-channel imagery across southern ON to northern IN and
central IL. A separate perturbation to its east was moving offshore
from the Mid-Atlantic region, and crossing southeastern New England.
The trailing trough should proceed eastward across NY and New
England through the period.

Upstream, a small cyclone is devolving into an open-wave trough over
southern AB and northwestern MT. The trough should move to eastern.MT and southern SK by 00Z, reaching western SD late overnight. As
this occurs, a preceding perturbation -- including an MCV now over
western SD -- should weaken and eject northeastward over eastern ND.
Farther south, a weak shortwave trough over western CO and parts of
UT will move eastward over CO, reaching the central High Plains by
the end of the period.

08/26/2022

08/21/2022

OK people this might be hour 384 but guidance models are showing similar outcomes of the storms a lot will change between now and then but we must monitor closely.

08/19/2022

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche continue to become better
organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form later
today, tonight, or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward
across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by
Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over
northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate the system. Interests along the northeastern coast of
Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring
locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

08/17/2022

Disturbance is expected to crawl toward the western Gulf through the end of the week where it could try to organize into a tropical depression and possibly enhance rainfall in South Texas.