08/24/2023
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DANE
In-depth and timely weather info for Boone, Winnebago, Dane, Iowa, Rock, and Columbia counties. IL/WI
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DANE
Severe thunderstorm watch issued
There is a possibility for thunderstorm development in roughly this area today, though I can't count out Rockford yet. Some of this may be severe, like we're seeing out in Milwaukee right now
Storms now approaching the area, these are sub-severe
These have been on a weakening trend lately, we'll see how that holds as they lift northeast.
Severe storms moving ~very slowly~ northeast into the Rockford area within the next couple hours. They have a 50/50 chance of maintaining their strength, so prepare yourself nonetheless because the slow moving nature of these could enhance impacts.
Severe thunderstorm moving into Dane, Green, and Rock counties
Severe thunderstorm watch for all counties north of the stateline.
Tomorrow will be a very interesting weather setup, with varying threats across the area. We'll break it down by timing:
Around 7 PM, storms begin to enter to the north and west of Madison, possibly entering Dane County around 7-9 PM. This threat is heavily a wind threat, where we could see winds to 70 MPH. The strongest of this will be to the south and east towards Beloit and Clinton, as the "bowing" segment will be further south and/or east.
That being said, the west end of this is to be watched as well. That's where we could see a higher tornado threat, as a tail-end storm could rotate given the right atmosphere. These would be cells developing west of the main line, eventually moving south east so we see a possibility for two rounds of storms in the Rockford Area.
The first storms approach the Rockford area around 10 PM, second around 2 PM
The strength of this will heavily depend on how much our atmosphere can recover from early morning storms, coming through at about 8/9 AM. If we can see sunshine, increasing temps and dew points, we're looking at a much more potent threat
As ALWAYS, this is subject to extreme change
The severe weather potential tomorrow continues to look interesting. I'll have an update around 3
Our area takes up the northern extent of a severe weather threat on FRIDAY, August 11th. The specific threats are unknown at this point, but it'll probably feature some damaging winds and hail, with a lower risk for tornadoes- there's really nothing screaming "tornado outbreak" about this forecast. Of course- as everything in weather.. it's subject to change, and I'll keep you informed.
The severe weather in downstate IL will not be affecting us. The pattern for the next few days should be rather quiet.
*Formerly Rockford Metro Weather*
We're expanding our coverage! We will now not only cover Rockford weather, but also include the Madison and Janesville metropolitan areas.
In the case that we are inactive during a severe weather event, such as the most recent one- I'd strongly recommend you follow Manhattan Weather Channel. They do the best job I've seen of forecasting out of any social media weather page here.
The Manhattan Weather Channel has a main area of coverage for our daily forecasts shown in grey. When severe weather occurs, we do expand our coverage to provide more area's with vital weather information to keep you safe and informed, which is extended to the orange shaded area which includes, Boone, Cook, Dekalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy, Iroquois, Kankakee, LaSalle, Livingston, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, Will and Winnebago counties in Illinois and in Indiana, Jasper, Lake, LaPorte, Newton and Porter counties. Together, we make our community safer:)
Here we go..
An areawide severe thunderstorm watch may be coming soon as storms develop and move east out of Iowa
Thunderstorms, some severe should move through the area after 7 PM tonight. Unlike yesterday, there shouldn't be any tornadoes with these- but large hail and damaging winds are possible.
There is a strong thunderstorm northwest of Beloit currently moving SE, how that impacts the area remains to be seen
The current storm moving through NE Boone County is no threat to Belvidere, Garden Prairie, or anything West of Russellville Road and north. This threat is limited to the Capron area and east
TORNADO WARNING sirens ongoing
All clear. Threat has subsided. Nothing here thankfully, but a tornado was seen in Oswego.
Broad rotation southwest of Rockford, near the Stephenson county line. Keep an eye out
TORNADO WATCH COMING SOON
Upgraded to a level 3/5 ENHANCED RISK for strong tornadoes and all other hazards
Here we go. PLEASE have ways to get alerts
I really do think at least one tornado will be possible today, east of IL-26, west of IL-47 south of US-20, and along and north of I-80. Around 5-7 PM. If the environment can destabilize from the rain this morning, the environment could be perfect for one or two tornadoes, along with the other usual severe hazards. Heed all warnings. The Southside of the metro is at higher risk than those in South Beloit, or Caledonia.
Monroe, WI
53566
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Watch these severe storms absolutely explode over the past 30 minutes. These will inpact the Rockford area soon.
SUMMARY...A severe risk may increase over the next hour or two within a corridor across northeast Iowa and possibly far southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and possibly far northern Illinois, although a more probable severe risk is expected later this evening (after sunset) across parts of the region. The need for a Watch is uncertain in the short term, but convective trends are being closely monitored SUMMARY via storm prediction center.
Storms in SE Iowa moving northeast have started to strengthen and attain severe status in areas. This has all occured within the past half an hour. These are still at least a couple hours away from arrival from Rockford, specifics on arrival times in towns such as Poplar Grove, Winnebago, etc.. aren't something I know at the moment due to how far away these are as of 6:30 PM For why this matters, please read the post published before this one if you haven't already
From the Storm Prediction Center: "To the east, cells are developing along a diffuse cold frontal zone across eastern IA into northwest IL. Although this region has warmed sufficiently for MLCAPE values to increase to near 1000 J/kg, upper-level flow diminishes with eastward extent, resulting in a modest kinematic environment. Additionally, storm motions along the boundary may favor a tendency for destructive storm interactions with time that will modulate a more substantial severe threat. Nonetheless, cold temperatures aloft and minimal inhibition will support periodic intense updrafts that may be capable of large hail and sporadic strong winds. This activity will likely persist into the early evening, but given the limited nature of the kinematic environment a watch is not anticipated"
SEVERE WEATHER is possible Tuesday, at the moment there is a level 2/5 risk of severe weather, this could see upgrade at a later date. All modes of severe weather appear to be possible right now. Keep an eye on our page for updates! Synopsis from the Storm Prediction Center: " Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Wisconsin southwestward into the lower Missouri Valley and into parts of the southern High Plains mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is a risk for large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes"
"Areas affected...Northeast Missouri through northeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 210010Z - 210215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along and behind a cold front may be capable of strong winds and severe hail. However, the coverage of this threat appears limited, and watch issuance is not anticipated"