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08/30/2025

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

08/29/2025

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Low chance Sunday

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

08/25/2025

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system has become less organized since yesterday, and further development is not anticipated as it moves quickly westward during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

08/24/2025

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands have increased since yesterday. However, the wave does not appear to have a surface circulation. This system could still become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands later today and early Monday.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

08/23/2025

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

08/22/2025

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

08/21/2025

KEY MESSAGES:

1. will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions will continue on the North Carolina Outer Banks today. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along the Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.

08/20/2025

KEY MESSAGES:

1. is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today or tonight. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Thursday along the southeastern coast of Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and Friday.

4. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts, and Atlantic Canada, should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday through Saturday.

08/19/2025

KEY MESSAGES:

1. is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Interests in along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts and on Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday.

3. Heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Erin will continue today
for the Turks and Caicos and through tonight for the Bahamas. Flash and urban flooding are possible.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas today.

08/18/2025

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and
portions of the southeast and central Bahamas. Flash and urban
flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast ofnthe U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week.

08/17/2025

latest model runs and overall track remains the same.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico today. Locally considerable flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and are possible in the Southeast Bahamas tonight and
Monday. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in Erin's outer
rainbands in portions of Puerto Rico today and the central Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week.

08/16/2025

is a Major Hurricane, all tracks are consistent with previous model runs.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are
likely in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight
and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today through Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeast Bahamas

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf by the middle part of next week.

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