Eric Wilson Weather Source

Eric Wilson Weather Source Meteorologist | Polymath | Philanthropy

11/18/2024
has a lot of Gulf Coast people confused. The spaghetti models are misleading so let me explain what we know. The image...
11/16/2024

has a lot of Gulf Coast people confused. The spaghetti models are misleading so let me explain what we know. The images below show where Sara will impact Central America with devastating flooding over the weekend. After the weekend what is left of Sara will become just a lot of moisture which will run into a cold front during the week next week (Wednesday) and bring showers to Florida. IT IS NOT FORECASTED TO BE ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT. Current intensity forecasts do not have anything organized as a system early next week, just a lot of moisture; which when combined with a cold front that will cross the lower south (including Florida) means rain showers. Thats all.

has a lot of ground (no fuel) to cover until Monday, a lot can change...a lot. Monday there are some steering winds th...
11/15/2024

has a lot of ground (no fuel) to cover until Monday, a lot can change...a lot. Monday there are some steering winds that allow the below image to solve this way, but any stalling over land this weekend could weaken the probability of this solution. Stay tuned.

Key messages from now until Monday.
11/15/2024

Key messages from now until Monday.

is now heading south from Tuesday's path 180 degrees.
11/07/2024

is now heading south from Tuesday's path 180 degrees.

Yes, another Tropical Cyclone moving towards the Gulf of Mexico Friday.
11/04/2024

Yes, another Tropical Cyclone moving towards the Gulf of Mexico Friday.

5pm update, Oct. 9th. Images will explain what, where and when.
10/09/2024

5pm update, Oct. 9th. Images will explain what, where and when.

11am Update, Wed Oct 9th with images explaining what to expect overall.
10/09/2024

11am Update, Wed Oct 9th with images explaining what to expect overall.

Hurricane Wed Oct 9th Update with images of what to expect and when.
10/09/2024

Hurricane Wed Oct 9th Update with images of what to expect and when.

Hurricane early Tuesday afternoon update.
10/08/2024

Hurricane early Tuesday afternoon update.

Hurricane continues to move towards Central Florida; here are the latest impacts we can expect
10/08/2024

Hurricane continues to move towards Central Florida; here are the latest impacts we can expect

5pm Update (Oct 7th); Here are the latest conditions expected for Florida (US). The Official Track updates (FYI) are p...
10/07/2024

5pm Update (Oct 7th); Here are the latest conditions expected for Florida (US). The Official Track updates (FYI) are posted on the 11's (11am and 11pm) outside of 48 hours. This will change tomorrow as we become within the 48 hour window.

11am Update: Latest images on flooding, high winds and more
10/07/2024

11am Update: Latest images on flooding, high winds and more

Hurricane continues to move closer to Florida Wednesday night and Thursday
10/07/2024

Hurricane continues to move closer to Florida Wednesday night and Thursday

now expected to be a Major Hurricane Wednesday October 9th
10/06/2024

now expected to be a Major Hurricane Wednesday October 9th

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Videos

The last 3 Solutions, Center, Wednesday Morning
The last 3 Solutions, Center, Wednesday Morning

The last 3 Model Solutions for Wednesday Morning are still pretty tight (within 100 miles) and more than 100 hours out as of this writing (Saturday, August 26th); and the latest GFS track guidance

https://ericwilsonweathersource.com/2023/08/26/floridas-first-2023-system-to-watch/ ☝️follow the link above for further details. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Remember, even though the suggested track has low confidence (it always does beyond 48 hours) Florida COULD get wet Wednesday. Or..

Tornado threat today until 5pm

Hiuston...is Cristobal a problem next week ?
Hiuston...is Cristobal a problem next week ?

Never trust any model run past 48 hours...yeah it's interesting...but relax for now. I will be watching it for us all. 😎 way too soon this morning for any confidence in this run.

Amanda to become Cristobal?
Amanda to become Cristobal?

I'll keep an eye out for Guatemala for now, and follow anything that might spin up in the Gulf of Mexico beyond Tuesday this week.

Tropical Cyclone 2E...could move into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday
Tropical Cyclone 2E...could move into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday

#TropicalCyclone2e #EricWilsonWeather #Tracking What I've done here is take the EURO all the way out to next weekend. NEVER trust any tropical movement past 48 hours. EVER!. But, you wanted to see it...That's all I'm saying about it now. Texas...you poor souls,you will have to deal with TV blowing this up. I don't mind if it's named, formed and has NWS plotting. But if you have friends in Texas, even Lousiana...just remember TV is TV. I will let you know when you need to be concerned. If next week this is a thing, check back. Cheers! -Eric

Flooding will be a problem for Central Florida
Flooding will be a problem for Central Florida

#Flooding #CentralFlorida #MemorialDay Right now a watch (just remember watches = looking for something to happen) is out for Central and Eastern Florida. A Warning will follow. Why? Because of the possibility of close to a foot of rain. Now...we are all NOT going to see a foot of rain. But the ground is very hard, which means run off. Run off into nearby streams means swelling. Swelling means flooding if you live on or near a major river. Hope that calms things down. :)

Arthur: Track depends on the model you choose
Arthur: Track depends on the model you choose

Monday during the Noon hour we see #Arthur either over the outer banks of North Carolina...or...300 miles east of that same latitude.

Invest 90L (Arthur?) off the east coast of Florida over weekend
Invest 90L (Arthur?) off the east coast of Florida over weekend

Me again, playing around with some new tools. This time I spoke :) and also switched between the EURO and GFS (even showed the NAM)...for geeks like me. Windy weekend, on and off showers for Florida..but no landfall.

Here is the track of Invest 90L (Arthur?) up to Monday at 2pm EDT
Here is the track of Invest 90L (Arthur?) up to Monday at 2pm EDT

#Invest90L #Arthur This is the ECMWF (Hurricane Surface Pressure Outlook) for the weekend. Going to be windy on the east cost of Florida for sure. I had somebody ask about Sunday boating in the Jacksonville area...not sure it would be the best day. Just saying. https://ericwilsonweathersource.com/ has all the latest data you are used to...just scroll down (I always construct this site for easy use for the phone). Let me know how the video turns out...if you like it, let me know and I'll continue posting videos so you don't have to wait for the news. :)

#ericwilsonweather is concerned about #hurricane #michael

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