Eric Wilson Weather Source

Eric Wilson Weather Source Meteorologist | Author | Philanthropy

Tropical Storm 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, ...
10/10/2025

Tropical Storm
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas and in steep terrain.

2. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today and tonight.

Tropical Storm 500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025KEY MESSAGES: 1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of th...
10/09/2025

Tropical Storm
500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands,
British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday,
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas
and in steep terrain.

Tropical Storm 500 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical st...
10/08/2025

Tropical Storm
500 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025 KEY MESSAGES:

1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.

2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday into early Friday, which could result in flash flooding,
particularly in areas of higher terrain.

Key Messages: Tropical Storm 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern Le...
10/07/2025

Key Messages: Tropical Storm
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025
Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that area later today or tonight.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organ...
10/07/2025

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave continues...
10/05/2025

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Two Potential Areas to talk about today, Friday October 3, 1. Southwestern Atlantic:A weak area of low pressure has form...
10/03/2025

Two Potential Areas to talk about today, Friday October 3,
1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa today.
The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

KEY MESSAGES: 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 20251. is a hurricane. The cyclone will approach Bermuda during the day Wednesday...
09/30/2025

KEY MESSAGES:
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
1. is a hurricane. The cyclone will approach Bermuda during the day Wednesday as a hurricane. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the island of Bermuda due to the expected onset of tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon.

2. Locally heavy rainfall across coastal sections of southeast
North Carolina could cause isolated flash and urban flooding
through tonight. As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday.

3. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.

KEY MESSAGES: 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 20251. Imelda is expected to continue to bring tropical storm conditions to portion...
09/29/2025

KEY MESSAGES:
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
1. Imelda is expected to continue to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today.

2. Rainfall associated with Imelda will continue to impact eastern
Cuba and the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas could cause isolated flash and urban flooding through Tuesday.

3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Imelda as a Hurricane Watch could be required late today.

4. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along the east coast of Florida and the Georgia coast today. These conditions are expected to spread northward along much of the east coast of the United States early this week.

KEY MESSAGES: Tropical Depression 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 20251. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropi...
09/28/2025

KEY MESSAGES: Tropical Depression
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. Rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nine will continue
to impact eastern Cuba and the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas could cause flash, urban, and river flooding into Wednesday morning.

3. There is still a risk of heavy rainfall, wind and high surf
impacts for the southeast U.S. coast even if the center
remains offshore. Residents should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

KEY MESSAGES: Potential Tropical Storm Nine500 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 20251. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical...
09/27/2025

KEY MESSAGES: Potential Tropical Storm Nine
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
1. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm this
weekend and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
central and northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

2. Rainfall associated with this system is expected to impact
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the
weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain.

3. There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall early next
week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the
southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and
river flooding.

4. The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Residents in that area should monitor updates to the forecast and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):200 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a low press...
09/26/2025

Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a low pressure system appears to be forming near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Gradual development of this system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves northwestward or northward across the central and northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and are likely to spread across the remainder of the Bahamas over the weekend. Interests in all of these areas should monitor the progress of the system. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the Bahamas and advisories on a potential tropical cyclone could be issued as early as later today. While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

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