CWN Wx

03/09/2017

As many of you may have noticed, my severe weather posts this season have been lacking. That is because, I forgot to make the formal announcement here.
In January, I accepted a position at KOAM-TV. In order to avoid a conflict of interest, I won't be posting severe weather updates any longer. Instead, I encourage all of you to tune to KOAM-TV, or my old friends at Joplin Atmospheric Science | Weather.
In addition, you can follow me at my new professional page, by clicking the link below.
CWW Wx started back in 2010- and after the 2011 tornado- picked up in popularity. It has been an honor having all of you trust my knowledge of the weather, and following my severe weather posts. I truly look forward to serving you all in my new role at KOAM, and again, just can't thank you enough for the past 6 years.

I will leave you with one last severe weather update- We have a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH until 7pm - not a big one - mainly due to some supercellular-type storms up north. Later, more storms will develop. Overall coverage will likely be somewhat scattered, but storms that develop will have the potential to produce very large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps, a tornado or two.

https://www.facebook.com/chriswarnertv/

01/10/2017

US Dept of CommerceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Weather Service Central Region Headquarters7220 NW 101st TerraceKansas City, MO 64153Comments? Questions? Please Contact Us.

12/22/2016

We are monitoring the potential for severe thunderstorms to develop across parts of the southern/central Plains on Christmas Day (Sunday). Presently, the highest potential appears to be across portions of central/eastern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas. However, adjustments to this area are likely as we receive new information over the next several days. Remember to check back with us, local NWS offices, and media for more information through the upcoming holiday weekend.

11/07/2016

BREAKING NEWS NOW: USGS preliminary reports indicate a moderate-strong earthquake occurred- registering 5.3 on the Richter Scale. This quake was centered 5.3 km West of Cushing, Oklahoma - northeast of the OKC metro.

10/07/2016

The good news: The storms are weakening. Even though we did see clearing late in the day - the atmosphere here is still not as unstable as points west. However, that line of storms out west is still rather potent - and will hold together long enough I think, to make it to the metro area. End story - I think a few strong to possibly severe storms will be possible, and any that get that way, will primarily pose a threat for damaging winds. Keep your weather radios on, watch local media, and get some sleep.

10/02/2016

All - we're continuing to monitor the increasing potential for a powerful, late-season severe weather event. At this time - there are still some uncertainties regarding the exact plot of the storms - but models are showing similarities in what they think will happen. If all holds course- we're looking at sometime Wednesday for severe weather. All modes are looking to be possible at this time. So please, keep an eye to the sky and to local media this week - as we get into the off season for severe weather, people have a tendency to let their guard down prematurely. Remember the tornado outbreak just east of here in January 2008? It's the Ozarks, folks. 'Weather' you like it, or not.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

09/03/2016

Another aftershock occurred- much lower magnitude - a 2.9, 12km northwest of Pawnee.

09/03/2016

Officials with the Pawnee County Emergency Management say at least one building has collapsed there as the result of an earthquake Saturday.  

09/03/2016

BREAKING NOW: A minor earthquake, 3.6 on the Richter Schedule has been recorded by the USGS approximately 15km northwest of Pawnee. No shaking reported in the metro area on the aftershock.

09/03/2016

Continuing live coverage from KOKI FOX23 in Tulsa.

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09/03/2016

We are now getting damage reports in from Oklahoma in the areas nearest to the quake. FOX23 in Tulsa reports a building in Pawnee, Oklahoma collapsed as a result of the quake.

09/03/2016

This is a Seismogram from NE of Kansas City recording the strong shaking of Oklahoma earthquake just after 7am.

09/03/2016

BREAKING NOW: Good morning. I'm sure any of you reading this were awakened by the earthquake this morning. Preliminary reports from the USGS indicate that this was a moderate earthquake centered 14km northwest of Pawnee, Oklahoma. The quake registered a 5.6 on the Richter Scale, and residents of Tulsa county described it on social media as a 'massive' earthquake. Currently, the USGS data indicates the quake was felt intensely enough to wake a few as far north as Kansas City, and as far east as Springfield. There are no current reports of damage in Oklahoma or across the metro, and we'll keep you posted as new information comes in.

08/25/2016

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UNTIL 6:45 PM. DETAILS FOLLOW:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 549 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHOAL CREEK
DRIVE...OR OVER JOPLIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOPLIN... CARTHAGE...
WEBB CITY... GALENA...
GRANBY... CARTERVILLE...
DUQUESNE... DUENWEG...
DIAMOND... LOMA LINDA...
AIRPORT DRIVE... LEAWOOD...
SILVER CREEK... SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...
SAGINAW... FIDELITY...
REDINGS MILL... GRAND FALLS PLAZA...
BROOKLYN HEIGHTS... SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 9452 3717 9438 3717 9423 3710 9414
3701 9414 3693 9418 3691 9430 3695 9456
3698 9462 3708 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 269DEG 16KT 3705 9455

HAIL...

08/25/2016

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch discussed earlier is confined to a large chunk of Eastern Kansas, and Northwestern Missouri. I believe the primary severe risk should remain confined to that area, although we may see a handful of thunderstorms tonight, and a couple could produce some gusty winds and very small hail.

08/24/2016

We went from a virtually non-existent severe weather threat to a possible watch issuance in the next couple of hours. Just keep your eyes to the sky. Link is here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1581.html

Details follow:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242023Z - 242200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SUPER-RAPID SCAN 1-MINUTE SATELLITE DATA REVEAL A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN MO
WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KS WHERE IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE WARM-SECTOR CU FIELD TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY ONGOING HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.

WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED/CLEARED...SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE SUPPORTING
MODERATE BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE
THE KINEMATIC PROFILE IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AS WELL AS AMPLE VENTING OF
THESE UPDRAFTS. IN TURN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CORES...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..PICCA/WEISS.. 08/24/2016

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

08/04/2016

07/03/2016

Developing Weather: Severe Thunderstorm WATCH # 319 has been issued effective until 11:00pm tonight. It includes the Newton County side of the metro area.
Storms are beginning to increase in coverage - and will gradually increase in intensity into the late afternoon and overnight. Winds of 60+ are the primary threat, however, some marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0319.html

07/03/2016

The good news is - the overall severe risk is diminishing. Will we see storms? Absolutely. Will they be severe? Possibly. Will there be any tornado warnings? I don't believe so. The tornadic threat seems to be focused north of the warm front - and we're on the south side. Now, that doesn't mean we absolutely won't see a tornado threat - it's just very low at this point. Wind seems to be the biggest threat with these storms as they track into the area. The way the system is a bit staggered, we may see a few rounds of storms into the overnight - each likely strong, possibly severe, with again, wind being the primary threats. I'm not too terribly worried - but as always - keep it tuned to local media and of course keep your weather radios on. They're always your first line of defense during any severe weather event.

07/02/2016

I'm monitoring some pretty quick development out west - the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was 3 counties away just got expanded and comes up to (but does not include) Cherokee, Crawford, and Bourbon counties, as severe thunderstorms get rapidly organized out west. Further west (West of Wichita) there's a couple of tornado warnings. This storms bare watching - and I'll be monitoring them as they approach the metro area tonight. Keep it tuned to local media for the latest watches/warnings.

06/23/2016

We are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 1:00am. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Northern Jasper County. It currently does not include the metro area. Other storms out west will be moving our way through the night. Stay tuned to local media for the latest.

06/23/2016

We do have a Severe Thunderstorm Watch out for all of SEK until 10:00pm. We're monitoring a rather potent line of storms that's developed and will likely be impacting the metro area late tonight. This line is expected to weaken a bit as it grows closer, however, severe weather is still possible. Some hail and damaging winds are the primary risk, however, there is a very isolated possibility of a tornado should this activity hold on to its strength into the late night hours.
Stay tuned to local media for the latest.

05/08/2016

We're monitoring the increasing potential for some nasty storms tomorrow across the area. The current timing, is expected to be Monday evening into Monday night. There's still some variables to the exact timing of the event - and the exact storm mode we'll see. The initial development is expected to be supercells - with all modes possible - including tornadoes - some potentially strong. However, as these supercells move eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma and into the Ozark Plateau - there's the possibility the environment here may force them to grow into a line of storms - which would reduce the overall tornado threat - and increase the damaging wind threat.
Stay tuned to local media for the latest.

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

05/07/2016

We're watching the threat of severe weather on Monday. Right now - all modes of severe weather seem possible - but wind/hail are the primary risk - and the overall severe threat isn't extremely high at this time.

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

04/29/2016

We are right in the thick of just some good ol' thunderstorms! Perfect sleeping weather! Now, yes, a few of them have decided to get a bit wild and go severe - but, we're not expecting any kind of widespread severe storms, just, something to mellow out to!

04/23/2016

I was hesitant to bring this up until things were more certain - the SPC has been monitoring this coming Tuesday for a potential severe weather event since Wednesday last week. Computer models continue to agree- and we are looking at the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak Tuesday late afternoon into the evening. All modes of severe weather are possible - and these are storms that - due to environmental factors - they won't be losing their steam as they march across Kansas and into our neck of the woods late Tuesday.
Since it is during the work week, I won't be able to track as well here - so - please, keep it tuned to local media for the latest as we close in on Tuesday.

Elsewhere - we may see a few thunderstorms tomorrow night - some could be a bit strong - with a repeat performance on Monday.

04/10/2016

BREAKING WEATHER NOW: The SPC has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #80 for the metro area until **MIDNIGHT** tonight. Full details follow:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 80
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN A BAND FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND THE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BAND OF CONVECTION...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...WW 79...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.

04/10/2016

DEVELOPING WEATHER: The SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion - indicating that a watch will likely be issued for the metro area within the hour. Strong winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two are all possible. The 'nerd' details follow:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 102213Z - 102345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...OWING TO MIXING/DESTABILIZATION AND SHARPENING
CONVERGENCE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD HAS
INCREASED/DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED BOUNDARY AND SUBTLE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS INTO WEST-CENTRAL MO. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW
MODESTLY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ COINCIDENT WITH
MIDDLE/UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50
KT WILL SUPPORT SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS A LINEAR
MODE BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROMINENT PRIOR TO BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MO AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS STRONGER.

04/10/2016

Good morning! Severe weather is still on the horizon for today - while all modes are possible, there is some good news from the SPC.
This is an excerpt from their forecast - ahead of the 'with similar' they were mentioning the threat for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and the potential for tornadoes...
WITH SIMILAR BUT SOMEWHAT REDUCED THREATS IN SE KS AND SW MO.
A MORE LIMITED SVR THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH 12Z MON ACROSS SRN/ERN
OK AND SW MO.

The last line is indicating we may see some redevelopment of strong-somewhat severe storms in our area late tonight into early tomorrow (12Z tomorrow would be about 7am.)
Keep it here and to local media for the latest on any possible watches or warnings!

04/10/2016

This link says it best for tonight and tomorrow.
Strong-severe storms tomorrow - wind is the primary risk at this time.
Scattered showers/storms tonight - no severe weather is expected.

US Dept of CommerceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Weather Service Central Region Headquarters7220 NW 101st TerraceKansas City, MO 64153Comments? Questions? Please Contact Us.

04/08/2016

We're monitoring the chance for severe weather on Sunday. It looks to be a late-evening event - and will likely be a small line of storms - with wind being the primary threat. I'll keep you posted.

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

03/31/2016

It would appear that the worst of it is done. We've got the severe t-storm warning until 10pm for the metro, and we've got a batch or two of storms back-building behind this - which is/could remain severe - but we're getting more line segments, which, makes it more difficult for rotation to develop. There's still a very low tornado risk, but I believe wind, hail, and lightning, are the biggest threats through I'd say 1am.
I'm off to sleep - keep your weather radios on, just in case.

03/31/2016

Some good news: The Tornado Warning will expire at 9:30. No reissuance at this time - however, this particular set, this makes the 3rd tornado warning in the past 2 hours for this particular set. We're still seeing redevelopment across NEOK - moving our way.

That leaves us with: Severe storms tonight? Absolutely.
Tornadoes tonight? Possibly, but not likely. I have a store to tend in the morning, so I'm *getting ready* for bed, but until I'm exhausted, I'll continue to monitor.

03/31/2016

BREAKING WEATHER NOW: Severe Thunderstorm WARNING for Jasper County until: 10:00pm. Full details follow:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
921 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 921 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PITTSBURG TO NEAR WEIR TO NEAR TREECE...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOPLIN... PITTSBURG...
CARTHAGE... WEBB CITY...
PRAIRIE STATE PARK... CARL JUNCTION...
LAMAR... FRONTENAC...
GALENA... ORONOGO...
CARTERVILLE... DUQUESNE...
ARMA... DUENWEG...
JASPER... GOLDEN CITY...
AIRPORT DRIVE... LOWELL...
ALBA... PURCELL...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.