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09/02/2024

This is the steering factor with this Caribbean system & really most systems coming out of the MDR.
WEAKER = WEST - STRONGER = PULL NORTH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WESTERN PERIPHERY...

09/02/2024

Extended forecast for NE FL and SE GA.

09/02/2024

Temperatures and Rain coverage today and tomorrow...

09/02/2024

Tropics starting to heat up...
2 systems now at 40% chance of development... Currently no threat to the CONUS!

09/02/2024

Good Morning & Happy Labor Day to most of you that get to enjoy an extra day off...

09/01/2024

Rain Coverage increasing due to this disturbance hugging the coast of Florida!

09/01/2024

RAIN CHANCES & COVERAGE INCREASING CENTRAL & NORTH FLORIDA WITH THIS SLOW MOVING NON TROPICAL LOW!

09/01/2024

TROPICS UPDATE: WATCHING THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN

Tropical Disturbance #2 east of the Caribbean islands is showing no signs of development yet. Every time it looks like a circulation might be developing, the system can't sustain it. The disturbance will likely move across the eastern Caribbean islands as a moisture surge tomorrow and Tuesday. Heavy rain and some gusty squalls are possible.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will feel the northern end of the disturbance. Watch for some periods of heavy rain.

The National Hurricane Center is keeping the odds of development in the medium range. The computer model forecasts show a wide variety of possibilities for the future of the system. At one extreme, some forecasts show a hurricane developing in the western Caribbean, while others show little or no development as the disturbance moves west into the southern Gulf of Mexico or Central America.

The tropical disturbance is dragging some Saharan dust with it, which is probably one of the factors slowing down development. If it attains a well-defined circulation, it should push that dust away, so the big question is, when will it organize? Or will it organize at all?

The computer forecast models we depend on are not especially good at predicting when a poorly organized system will pull itself together. That's why the National Hurricane Center looks at multiple models to come up with the odds of minimal development into a tropical depression.

On the current schedule, the possible storm will be in the western Caribbean late in the week and possibly in the Gulf after that. If the system organizes and strengthens in the Caribbean, it would logically be pulled to the north by a dip in the jet stream. If, however, it stays relatively weak, it appears more likely to take a southerly track into Mexico.

Long-range computer forecasts have been jumping all over the place, which is expected when a defined circulation has not yet formed. Let's see where we are midweek.

IN THE GULF, there is still a slight chance that Disturbance #1 will take on some tropical characteristics while it's hanging around the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The National Hurricane Center has the odds in the low range. The disturbance is a non-tropical system related to an upper-level low and a surge of tropical moisture.

In any case, a heavy rain threat will continue along the coast from Galveston to south of New Orleans. Most of the heavy rain will fall south of I-10, although some downpours will spread north as the system meanders. Stay aware of local information and instructions. Extreme rainfall will likely cause flooding in some areas.

NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST, Potential Disturbance #3 is about to move into the Atlantic. The atmospheric pattern looks marginally conducive for development, so the National Hurricane Center has the development odds in the low range over the next week. There is no apparent threat to land at the current time.
- Bryan Norcross

09/01/2024

LABOR DAY OUTLOOK...

09/01/2024

Weather Impact Key Messages...

09/01/2024

Tropics Outlook - going to have to wait a bit longer on this one. Weaker = West
Stronger = bend North into GoMex IF WE EVEN GET ANY DEVELOPMENT!

09/01/2024

Weather Map Sunday 9/1/2024

09/01/2024

Good Morning - Sunday
September 1, 2024

08/31/2024

TROPICS UPDATE: SLOW-DEVELOPING ATLANTIC DISTURBANCE COULD BE A U.S. THREAT IF IT ORGANIZES IN THE CARIBBEAN
- Bryan Norcross

The National Hurricane Center is making note of 3 disturbances from near Texas to near Africa. The one of most interest is Tropical Disturbance #2 east of the Caribbean islands. Late next week, this system could be over extremely warm water and under conducive atmospheric conditions for strengthening in the western Caribbean Sea. But it has to get organized first, so no confident forecasts are possible.

The NHC is keeping the odds of development over the next 7 days in the medium range until the system shows clear signs of organization. The question is, can some part of the elongated area of disturbed weather in the tropical Atlantic break free into an independent system. The various computer forecast models are fairly bullish on that eventually happening, but predictions for undeveloped systems are always subject to significant changes.

Blocking high pressure to the north would seem to favor a track west through the Caribbean for most of next week. Many long-range forecasts show the system bending to the north into the Gulf around next weekend, but that's so far out that we can't pay attention to any specific forecasts.

Don't focus on any computer projections you see on the internet. Where the potential storm turns north (if it does) will depend on how quickly the system can organize and intensify (if it does) and the position and orientation of a jet stream dip moving into the Midwest that could pull it north. Subtle differences in these variables and others are responsible for the various development and track possibilities you might see online.

At this point, just be aware of a potential storm threat near Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula about next weekend, and in the Southeast the following week.

IN THE GULF: The system offshore of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, Disturbance #1, is a non-tropical system but has a slight chance of taking on some tropical characteristics if it stays offshore. Whether it technically becomes tropical or not, the rain is going to add up, especially near the coast. Both the Houston and New Orleans metropolitan areas are in the rain zone. The heaviest rain should fall south of I-10.

A combination of the existing low-pressure system, an upper-level disturbance, and an approaching tropical disturbance will keep periods of rain going through much of the coming week. Stay up to date on local information and instructions in coastal Louisiana and Southeast Texas.

NEAR AFRICA: Tropical Disturbance #3 is slowly moving west through a plume of dry and dusty air. The National Hurricane Center has its development chances in the low range over the next week. At this point, it does not look like a threat to land, but we always have to watch slow-moving systems.

08/31/2024

NOT TO BE A DOOM & GLOOM PERSON BUT, I DON'T LIKE THIS SETUP AT ALL!
SST's ARE VERY WARM! HOPEFULLY WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WE SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SHEAR TO HOLD IT AT BAY!

08/31/2024

Still too far out in time but, this is not a great scenario for anyone from Texas to New Orleans to Florida!

08/31/2024

Labor Day Weekend forecast...

08/31/2024

Still watching the tropics. The system entering the Caribbean is still struggling to get it together. Yesterday the chances of development were actually dropped from 50% to 40%. Late Next week might be interesting.

08/31/2024

Good Morning on this last day of August 8/31/2024

08/31/2024

LESS THAN 10% CHANCE BUT STILL IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO PUT IT OUT THERE!
MEANWHILE 70% CHANCE THE MODELS ARE SNIFFING SOMETHING OUT ON ALMOST EVERY RUN NOW!
Heads up as we head into Labor Day Weekend. Next week we will be watching a strong tropical wave moving through the Caribbean. Most models develop the system by mid to late week and then some, including this morning’s European and American models, turn northward into the Gulf of Mexico by next Sunday.
We do not know if it will form or how strong it will be, but given the Caribbean (and Gulf) is the hottest it’s ever been on record, we know it will have high octane fuel.
Bottom line: this may become a real threat for the Gulf Coast and maybe Florida. So monitor this day by day and, as a precaution, top off your hurricane supplies. - WFLA

08/30/2024

Next week could get really interesting...

08/30/2024

IF THE EURO HAS ITS WAY, WE COULD BE TRACKING AS MANY AS 3 SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK!

08/30/2024

Thanks Tom Terry!

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Videos

Always have to watch these stalled out fronts! The SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) are really warm especially in the GoMex!

HURRICANE ERNESTO SHOWING UP NICELY ON SATELLITE LOOP...

Tropical Storm Debby's center now re-emerging over the water. JAX is on the backside of the rotation now so, showers, storms and gusty winds will be coming out of the Northwest. Going to have to watch this closely as a few models were hinting at it coming back West...

Big burst of Convection right over the center!

Boy oh Boy looking at this visible loop waiting on the 5pm Advisory, it damn sure looks like Debby has hit the brakes!!

DRY AIR GETTING INGESTED AS DEBBY TRIES TO CLOSE OFF THAT CENTER!!

Central Dense Overcast expanding now! Big Convection blowup over the center of circulation!!

ZOOM IN! DEFINITELY GETTING THAT LOOK!

HWRF Hurricane Model showing Future Debbys movement across the State... Time stamps on top of the graphics...

Bahama blob will greatly increase rain coverage Monday for SOFLO and Tuesday for Central and North Florida. Combine that with the seabreeze fronts colliding and we're talking substantial rain totals!