05/25/2024
Newest SPC Outlook is posted, little meaningful change, though the Moderate (4/5) area was pushed a bit north. TBH I'm having a hard time with the disconnect between SPC and the local offices on this one. SPC is tempering a high-end forecast with mention of some failure modes. By and large the local offices are concentrating on the failure modes and giving less airtime to the risk potential.
Here's my best call at the moment: moisture return is a concern. Too little or too late and we waste some significant parameters (or for the 99.9% of real people reading this, we avoid a high-end weather day). I'm going entirely on instinct here, combined with at least one model showing this scenario every time I've checked (though not always the same model).
What we'll have to watch for is the lone supercell initiating around 5pm somewhere in the US-281 corridor (Medicine Lodge, Pratt, St. John) and moving east or east-northeast. If that cell can maintain through 7pm, I think we're in for a very rough evening somewhere between Highway 50 (Sylvia to Newton) and the south state line. I consider Hutchinson and the entire Wichita metro at risk. NWS Wichita pushed the highest risk area to south of US 400 (Pratt, Kingman, Wichita, Augusta), I'm not quite ready to rule out the area between 50 and 400 (Preston, Langdon, Haven, Sedgwick, etc).
My hope is the moisture arrives a little too late and we're faced with a massive line of storms that produce gully-washer rains and some damaging straight-line wind. My fear is all the ingredients will come together and really mess up the weekend for somewhere in southern Kansas.
Heads up and eyes to the sky, okay? And if you're at the lake or outdoors, don't wait to take action -- when/if you see the towers develop to your west, pack it up and head for safety. Don't wait till it's in the next county over.
