Kazmi Investments

09/03/2024

Arguably more accurate data like truflation doesn’t matter to policy makers because they don’t look at it and don’t make decisions off it.

More lagged data like CPI and NFP matter more because they directly influence policy.

The debate about the data being manipulated is pointless as long as policy is decided off that manipulated data.

Everyone knows that everyone knows it’s not precise, but since those that are aware of that fact still use it to make decisions, it still matters.

08/21/2024

US PAYROLLS REVISED DOWN 818,000

The government just erased 818,000 jobs from their official job growth numbers.

Insane that monetary policy and economic decisions were being made with such bad data for the last 12+ months.

08/21/2024

Bitcoin will devour most of the world's monetary premium.

In addition to indexation, monetary policy has fueled higher PE ratios in US equities, which can be seen as them being given a "monetary premium" by the market. Investors are willing to pay up for the best companies because they view them abstractly as a (liquid) way to protect their purchasing power

It's hard to estimate the notional value, but the point here is that there is a significant monetary premium put on all assets brought on by monetary debasement as investors look to shelter their spending power.

The Bitcoin thesis is simple: It is fundamentally the best SoV asset ever created and will absorb the vast majority of the monetary premium currently present across other asset classes -- and on the other end of this absorption should lie more attractive valuations on other assets for Bitcoin holders to deploy their capital into once this monetary premium is removed.

08/21/2024

Kamala's policies so far:

Price Controls
28% corporate tax
44.6% capital gains tax
25% tax on unrealized gains

Price controls and taxing *unrealized* gains are far from the realm of ordinary policy.

This is not the usual debate about raising or lowing marginal tax rates, etc...

Harris is proposing extremist, economically illiterate, very damaging policy.

06/19/2024

Didier Sornette using fractal geometry to identify mathematical patterns in acoustic emissions to predict market crashes.

Tiny earthquakes that predict certain failure.

06/12/2024

Burry in 2011 speaking on the future of America, debt, & what a Trillion actually is

06/06/2024

remix of infinite amount of cash at the fed.

06/06/2024

I feel like this is a really big deal.

Yesterday Canada, now the EU has started cutting rates.

The easing phase of monetary policy has officially begun. This probably also makes it easier for the FED to cut since the others went first.

05/29/2024

05/29/2024

It's not just digits or a ticker on a screen.

It's the ability to dictate ownership on YOUR terms.

It completely inverts the power dynamics between man and the state.

05/15/2024

State of the market

05/14/2024

The U.S. could announce a multi-trillion investment program to support AI-enabled advancements in defense, health care, entitlements, energy infrastructure and education

A down payment on truly rebuilding our industrial capacity.

Best case, we uninvert the curve immediately and get massive real growth investments;

Worst case we lose the long end, force the Fed into YCC & get massive real growth investments.

05/14/2024

A student shares their iPad screen with the new ChatGPT + GPT-4o, and the AI speaks with them and helps them learn in *realtime*.

Imagine giving this to every student in the world.

The future is going to be insane.

05/14/2024

Some analysts say that monetary policy is not tight enough to curtail inflation.

The real issue is that fiscal policy is too loose to curtail inflation, and at a >120% public debt/GDP ratio with ballooning interest expense, tighter monetary policy loosens fiscal policy further.

05/14/2024

In 1997-98, JPY fell fr 114 to 146 v. USD, 10y UST yld fell fr 6.5% to 4.5%, & global CB's sold gold

Since early 2021, JPY has fallen fr 108 to 155 v. USD, 10y UST yld has risen fr 1.5% to 4.5%, & global CB's have bought gold.

Nobody wondering why it's different this time (yet)

Covid spending was supposedly a 100-year emergency. Now, apparently, it's emergency spending forever.

05/05/2024

Semiconductor manufacturing requires a mind blowing level of precision.

05/05/2024

https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-to-build-a-20-billion-semiconductor