OmniWeather Connecticut

11/15/2024

Forecast Discussion: 11/15

Friday brings partly to mostly sunny skies and a slight warm-up to the area, with highs reaching 53–58°F. Morning satellite does show mid to high level clouds now, but these are expected to gradually diminish as the day progresses. A northwesterly breeze will strengthen in the afternoon, with gusts up to 25 mph. The combination of dry air and gusty winds have prompted a Red Flag Warning for the much of the area, highlighting an elevated fire danger.

Saturday will be sunny but quite windy. Previous forecasts may have been underestimating the wind a bit, especially in Western and Central Connecticut, where gusts could reach 30–40 mph. Fire spread on Saturday remains a significant concern due to the ongoing dry conditions and relative humidity values near 25%. Highs will climb to around 60°F. Sunday’s weather will be similar, although winds should ease a bit during the afternoon.

Looking ahead to early next week, partly sunny and seasonable conditions are expected. A quick, light shower may pass through on Monday, but most areas will stay dry. The overall pattern remains largely rain-free through midweek. The next notable chance for rain is still on track for late next week, around Thursday. Tropical Storm Sara could interact with a strong trough over the U.S., potentially drawing moisture northward. However, it’s too early for specifics, and this setup will need to be monitored in the coming days.

11/15/2024

The SPC has highlighted the next few days for elevated risk of fire spread. Interested to see if we expand to a Level 2 (critical) on Saturday when winds are highest. Worth watching!

11/14/2024

Forecast Discussion: 11/14

Waking up to the coldest morning since March at some sites across Connecticut, with many areas dipping into the low 20s last night. Today, deep-layered ridging will keep conditions dry across the region, although broken to overcast mid-to-high-level clouds will linger as a low-pressure system moves southeast from the southern Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Highs will range from 45°F to 50°F, about 5 degrees below average for this time of year. Overnight, cloud cover will help keep temperatures slightly warmer than last night; however, lows are still expected to be a brisk 27°F to 32°F, with frost again likely.

High pressure will continue to dominate the next several days, though a low-pressure system near the Canadian Maritimes will stall, and the gradient between high and low will bring breezy conditions this weekend. At the same time, a very dry airmass will move on Friday through Sunday, with relative humidity as low as 25%. The combination of these factors will lead to a concerning setup with fire weather as the drought continues. Red Flag Warnings are expected to be hoisted through this period, with the SPC highlighting the potential for a multi-day fire weather outbreak.

High pressure remains in control Monday and Tuesday. Toward midweek, there is potential for more widespread precipitation as a low-pressure system from the central U.S. approaches the region. Models have hinted at this system for several days, with both the GFS and European models showing at least periods of rain late Wednesday through Friday. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer and gain more clarity.

11/13/2024

Forecast Discussion 11/13:

Morning satellite shows clear skies across the region. A high-pressure system will keep things calm overall, though we may still see some breezy northerly winds up to 20 mph this morning before they ease off this afternoon. Expect sunny skies and cooler-than-average highs around 50 degrees near the coast and in the upper 40s inland. A RED FLAG WARNING continues for the entire area until 6PM this evening.

Tonight, will feature clear skies, with light to calm winds allowing for good cooling conditions inland. Expect temperatures to dip down all the way to the low 20s in many inland locations by Thursday morning.

Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, high pressure will remain, but clouds may increase as two low-pressure systems pass nearby, one from the Great Lakes and the other from the Atlantic. The Atlantic storm is modeled to deepen and stall near Nova Scotia. This will set up a period of dry and breezy conditions Friday through Sunday. This is a very concerning setup for fire weather, and the SPC has highlighted this range for enhanced fire weather conditions. Additional Red Flag Warnings are likely.

11/12/2024

Forecast Discussion 11/12: Have the Jacket Handy Today

Tuesday will bring high pressure building in from the Great Lakes, leading to mostly sunny skies. A tight pressure gradient between this high and a low over Nova Scotia will yield gusty northwest winds across the region. Expect a chill in the air, as highs struggle to reach 50 degrees, with the wind making it feel 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the actual temperature. Peak wind gusts are anticipated between 35 and 40 mph from 9 AM to 3 PM. A RED FLAG WARNING has been issued for the entire area until 6 PM, as low humidity values and gusty winds heighten fire concerns. Clear skies and lighter winds Tuesday night will allow temperatures to drop quickly into the mid-20s for most areas.

The extended forecast looks generally seasonable and quiet. High pressure will slide closer to the area on Wednesday, bringing another sunny day with lighter winds. A storm system will bypass the area on Thursday, but we may see a bit more cloud cover overall. Temperatures on Thursday will remain below normal, with highs in the mid to upper 40s for most locations. By Friday through Sunday, temperatures are expected to warm up, staying above normal into the weekend, with highs in the mid-50s inland and near 60 along the shoreline.

11/11/2024

Forecast Discussion 11/11:

Honoring all Veterans today—your service and sacrifice will never be forgotten.

A cold front moving through the area this morning has brought some much-needed rainfall to the area. Ground observations and radar analysis indicate a general 0.20 to 0.50 inches has fallen statewide. While this will not end drought, it will give us a temporary reprieve from fire weather concerns, at least for today. After the frontal system fully moves through this morning, winds will shift from the southwest to the west, and this westerly breeze will continue throughout the day. Clouds will generally diminish through the day, with clearing skies expected during the afternoon.

Tuesday will bring high pressure building in from the Great Lakes. Strong high pressure to the northwest and low pressure to the northeast will create gusty winds from the northwest. Temperatures Tuesday will be a bit cooler than previously forecasted, and the night will bring clear skies and lighter winds, allowing for temperatures to drop quickly into the mid-20s for most Tuesday night.

The extended forecast looks generally seasonable and quiet/High pressure slides closer to the area on Wednesday which will yield sunny skies and lighter winds. Ridging in the upper atmosphere will weaken as a low-pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. However, current forecasts have evolved to show this system staying mostly to the south and west, so rain chances are low. Temperatures on Thursday will be slightly cooler than usual, in the 40s to around 50 degrees. By Friday, temperatures are expected to warm up, staying above normal into the weekend, with highs in the mid-50s inland and lower 60s towards the shoreline.

11/09/2024

Incredible plume of smoke on satellite from a wildfire in NW NJ today. It travels hundreds of miles to the SE out over the ocean. With no clouds around today, I could actually see this from Western CT on the SW horizon.

11/08/2024

There is actually rain in the forecast! Here is our latest blog.

Yet another Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire area today. Warm temperatures, gusty winds, and low relative humidity will serve as a dangerous combination for rapid brush fire spread. This has been a remarkable fall for fires across CT, with local fire officials telling us this is one of t...

11/08/2024

Forecast Discussion: 11/8

A Red Flag Warning has been hoisted yet again for the entire area Friday, in effect from 8AM to 6PM. Decided to max out the fire threat in the alert category as this is about as significant a setup as there is for brush fire spread. Friday will bring one more mild day, with highs mostly between 63-68°F, west winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph, and low humidity.

Temperatures cool to the mid to upper 50s on Saturday and Sunday but expecting more sunshine than clouds. A hard freeze is possible in many areas Saturday night as temperatures dip to the 20s across the interior. Temperatures and cloud cover do gradually increase Sunday ahead of a frontal system bringing showers Sunday night and into early Monday. A general 0.10 to 0.30 inches of rainfall is expected from this system which should help to ease fire concerns, at least temporarily.

In the longer term, high pressure will likely reestablish itself through midweek under large-scale upper-level ridging, with generally seasonable and dry conditions continuing. The next frontal approaches Thursday with increasing clouds and showers. While there is some model uncertainty at this range, there seems to be a better chance at a soaking rainfall later Thursday into early Friday.

11/07/2024

Forecast Discussion 11/7:

It will be unseasonably warm yet again for your Thursday with highs into the low 70s inland and upper 60s by the shoreline. Winds will increase this afternoon, and drier air will work into the region. A combination of low relative humidity, gusty winds, and warm temperatures has resulted in yet another day of high fire danger. Due to the low RH, I think it can be argued today’s fire danger is even higher than yesterday’s when the Red Flag Warning was issued. With the dry air in place, temperatures fall swiftly this evening, reaching the upper 30s and low 40s in many locations by Friday morning.

Friday should bring one more mild day, with highs mostly between 62-67°F and gusty west winds, before another dry cold front moves through Friday evening. Winds could gust to 30 mph out of the west on Friday, and Red Flag Warnings may again be needed. Temperatures cool to the mid to upper 50s on Saturday and Sunday but expecting more sunshine than clouds. Clouds do gradually increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a frontal system bringing showers Sunday night and into early Monday.

In the longer term, high pressure will likely reestablish itself through midweek under large-scale upper-level ridging, with generally seasonable and dry conditions continuing. The next frontal approaches by the end of the week. While there is some model uncertainty at this range, there seems to be a better chance at a soaking rainfall later Thursday into early Friday.

11/06/2024

Forecast Discussion 11/6: More Red Flag Warnings

A RED FLAG WARNING has been issued for all Southern New England until 6PM. Wednesday will be very warm across the region with temperatures climbing well into the 70s across the area. Some of the warmest climate locations through the urban corridor and the CT River Valley even have a chance of reaching 80°F. For reference, the daily record high temperature for the Hartford area is 76°F (2022) and the Bridgeport area is 72°F (also 2022). The record for Danbury is 76°F set all the way back in 1938. All of these daily records are in jeopardy today.

A dry cold front will come through early Thursday morning, with a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air also coming in Friday. In general Thursday through Saturday will be dry and breezy with highs in the upper 60s Thursday and Friday dropping to the upper 50s for most Saturday. Unfortunately, the NW breeze and extremely dry conditions will continue to raise wildfire concerns during this interval with additional Red Flag Warnings possible. The next chance for meaningful precipitation appears to be Sunday into Monday, but models over the last 24 hours have backed off on amounts as it appears the system will miss out on linking up with moisture from Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. About 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain looks possible.

11/05/2024

Forecast Discussion 11/5:

No major changes to the forecast this Tuesday morning. Clouds are expected to decrease through the day on Tuesday, with mostly cloudy skies in the morning giving way to clearing in the afternoon. With high pressure offshore, a stronger southwest flow will develop, pushing temperatures well above normal into the lower 70s. Dew points will also rise, reaching the upper 50s and creating a very “springtime” feel in November. Wednesday will be even milder with temperatures climbing well into the 70s across the area. Some of the warmest climate locations in the CT River Valley even have a chance of reaching 80°F.

Thursday through Saturday will be dry and seasonably mild, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s. Unfortunately, a NW breeze and extremely dry conditions will renew wildfire concerns during this interval. We will have to monitor carefully for Red Flag Warnings. The next chance for meaningful precipitation appears to be Sunday into Monday, but models vary widely on this based on differences with the track and remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rafael.

11/04/2024

All the colors were seen in the sunrise this morning!

📸 Kim Green

11/04/2024

Forecast Discussion: 11/4

Welcome to yet another week without significant rainfall in the forecast as abnormally dry conditions continue. As high pressure shifts eastward this afternoon, an onshore southeast flow will get established, keeping temperatures near normal, with daytime highs in the upper 50s to around 60°F. Cloud cover is expected to increase today, with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the region. A warm front will approach the area around midnight, maintaining mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of light showers or sprinkles, especially across Northern CT and Rhode Island. As the warm front lifts northward, dew points will increase into the 50s before daybreak on Tuesday, and temperatures may even rise slightly in the pre-dawn hours,

Clouds are expected to decrease on Tuesday, with mostly cloudy skies in the morning giving way to clearing in the afternoon. With high pressure offshore, a stronger southwest flow will develop, pushing temperatures well above normal into the lower 70s. Dew points will also rise, reaching the upper 50s and adding to the unseasonably warm conditions. Looking ahead to Wednesday, temperatures will peak in the 70s across the area, with isolated spots across the warmest climate location in the urban corridor reaching 80°F. Record highs could be challenged across the region.

Thursday through Saturday will be dry and seasonably mild, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Unfortunately, a NW breeze and extremely dry conditions will renew wildfire concerns during this interval. We will have to monitor carefully for Red Flag Warnings. The next chance for meaningful precipitation appears to be Sunday into Monday, but further adjustments to the timing and extent of rain chances will be made in upcoming forecasts as confidence in this system's track and intensity improves.

11/02/2024

Breaking: Rocky Neck State Park is CLOSED due to a large brush fire. Smoke is being reported over Long Island Sound.

📸 Michele Shannon

11/02/2024

Here is a quick recap of our recent record-breaking weather. Is there soaking rain in the forecast? Unfortunately.. not right now.

First there were the temperature records set on Halloween, with Danbury (82) and Windsor Locks (84) breaking their all-time records, both set back in 1946. On Friday, Windsor Locks (84) and Bridgeport (80), which serve as the "official" climate sites in the State of Connecticut, both recorded their....

11/01/2024

Sunrise in Newtown this morning! 🌅

📸 Sky Blue Designs

11/01/2024

Forecast Discussion: 11/1

A cold front will move slowly through the region today, but not before temperatures are able to rise into the middle to upper 70s once again. There is a chance of sprinkles through midday, but it appears the front will come through mostly to completely dry in many locations. As the front moves though, winds will pick up out of the west. Wind gusts will reach 30 mph to perhaps an isolated 40 mph just behind the front, with rapidly dropping dew points and relative humidity levels around 30%. Due to these dry, windy conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued across the region.

As the front clears, high pressure will build in for the weekend, bringing clear, sunny skies and temperatures near seasonal averages. With light winds and clear conditions Saturday night, sub-freezing lows are possible across much of the interior. Overall, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s through the weekend with abundant sunshine – much more seasonable conditions!

Heading into the long term, a warm front will approach Sunday night, advancing northward on Monday. The warm front will likely clear the area by Tuesday with nothing more than a few sprinkles, bringing a period of dry weather and positioning the region in the warm flow. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages Sunday night and Monday, then trend 10–15°F above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday may approach record highs, with the forecast leaning toward the upper range of temperature models for the period.