CT Weather

01/14/2025

Forecast Discussion 1/14:

Colder air works in for Tuesday as a cold front moves through the area, bringing a slight chance of snow showers Tuesday afternoon and evening. Both the NAM and the HRRR place the bulk of the snow shower and flurry activity in Western CT and the Hudson Valley, with lower but non-zero chances in Central and Eastern zones. A NW breeze will pick up on Tuesday as well, with many area seeing gusts 25 to 30 mph. Air temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s with wind chills in the 10s for much of the day.

This front will kick off another cold and blustery stretch Tuesday through Thursday, with highs in that upper 20s to low 30s range. The period is expected to be mainly dry minus the aforementioned slight chance of precipitation on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures rise back into the upper 30s on Friday as we await our next series of systems to impact the area over MLK weekend.

Both the GFS and Euro are in decent alignment on a two-part event, with rain/snow showers on Saturday giving way to a colder and perhaps more impactful system Sunday night into Monday. Both have showed the opportunity for plowable snow in this period, with a quick-hitting but moderate snow event possible. Of course, given the range to the event, more details will need to be ironed out in the coming days.

01/13/2025

Got some great color tonight!

📸 Alicen Groh

01/13/2025

Forecast Discussion 1/13:

Monday will kick off the work week with mostly sunny skies and seasonably mild temperatures. Expecting highs to climb into the low 40s across much of the region, with a few mid 40s possible in the warmer urban climate locations. A tandem of cold fronts will approach later on Monday, with the first passing through Late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. This could bring a stray shower or snow shower with it, but not expecting anything of impact. The second cold front will push through on Tuesday, bringing a slight chance of snow showers Tuesday afternoon.

This will kick off another cold and blustery stretch Tuesday through Thursday, with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. The period is expected to be mainly dry minus the aforementioned slight chance of precipitation on Tuesday. Temperatures rise back into the upper 30s on Friday as we await our next larger system set to impact the area Saturday and Sunday. Models remain split on exactly how much cold air will be available for this system – so please stay tuned for updates in the coming days.

01/11/2025

Many areas are reporting around an inch of snow this morning. I have an official 1.3 inches in Stony Hill. Let us know what you’re seeing!

01/10/2025

Forecast Discussion 1/10:

After three consecutive cold and blustery days, temperatures will moderate a today and the breeze will slowly wind down across the region. Highs will be in the mid-30s but its one of those days where it will probably feel warmer due to the recent cold and lack of gusty winds. Expect sunshine to dominate until clouds increase Friday night ahead of the next system.

Models have remained consistent over the last 48 hours showing a solution that will yield a weaker low with a southern track. Consistent with update last night, at this point, there may not be much more than scattered snow showers around during the day Saturday, leading to a coating to an inch. Light snow will be widespread across the area, with a very similar forecast from the shoreline all the way to the hills. The timing would generally be 4AM to 12PM Saturday for light snow or snow showers.

Temperatures will continue to run in the 30s through early next week until colder air once again moves in on Tuesday, with another cold and blustery stretch upcoming. Long range, we will continue to monitor for any larger storm threats, but the pattern appears dry through the next 7 days.

01/09/2025

Forecast Discussion 1/9:

The big weather story Thursday will continue to be the wind and the cold, and likely in that order. A WIND ADVISORY has now been hoisted for all of Southern CT and adjacent Hudson Valley locations, as well as Northern Litchfield County. Wind will generally gust 40 to 50 mph across the entire state, which could lead to isolated to scattered power outages. Wind chill values will struggle to get out of the teens across most of the area, even down to the shoreline.

Temperatures moderate a bit for Friday. Highs will be in the mid-30s but its one of those days where it will probably feel warmer due to the recent cold and lack of wind. Expect sunshine to dominate until clouds increase Friday night.

We continue to watch the storm system on Saturday but has really begin to come in weaker on the modeling. Models have remained consistent over the last 48 hours showing a solution that will yield a weaker low with a southern track. At this point, there may not be much more than scattered snow showers around during the day Saturday, leading to a coating to an inch. The timing would generally be 6AM to 3PM Saturday for any activity, although short range models will help to refine this further over the next 24 hours. Skies clear for Sunday as we enter another dry period. Temperatures will continue to run cold, with highs in the low to middle 30s.

01/09/2025

Don’t underestimate these winds tomorrow! The pressure gradient tightens on us and widespread wind gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible yet again. After consecutive windy days, isolated to scattered tree and power issues are possible, especially across the Western and Northwestern hills. The European model below is generally fairly good at depicting NW wind events.

01/08/2025

Forecast Discussion 1/8:

Cold and windy continues to be the theme this week as wind chills are in the single digits to near zero for many this morning. Temperatures will be below average for Wednesday, with highs only in the middle to upper 20s for most. This will combine with wind gusts 30 to 35 mph to make it feel like the 10s even during the warmest part of the day. Expect similar weather again for Thursday with highs a bit warmer in the upper 20s to low 30s, but winds gusting 40 to 45 mph. The winds will finally die down on Friday while temperatures remain near or below normal with highs in the low to middle 30s.

The next storm system to watch approaches on Saturday. Models have remained consistent over the last 24 hours showing a solution that will yield a weaker low with a southern track. This will result in lighter snow totals for the area, with totals approximately 1 to 3 inches the most likely solution. Skies clear for Sunday as we enter another dry period. Temperatures will continue to run cold, with highs in the low to middle 30s.

01/08/2025

A common question of late!

If you stepped outside at all in New England today, you probably noticed the cold and the wind. Winds gusted 40 to 50 mph over much of Connecticut, resulting in single digit wind chills and even isolated tree and power problems. The maximum wind gusts throughout our area can be seen below:

01/07/2025

Advisory level gusts are being reported today across the area along with isolated tree and power issues. Our meteorologist Chris Roscia helped set up the DOT station that clocked a 49 mph gust.

01/07/2025

Forecast Discussion 1/7:

Cold and blustery conditions continue Tuesday through Thursday. Do not underestimate the wind these days, as we will consistently gust 30 to 40 mph, and likely on the higher end of that range on both during the day Tuesday and during the day Thursday. Highs will generally with in the 20s with wind chills in the 10s or single digits. The period also appears dry on the whole, although cannot rule out an isolated flurry or snow shower as some weak energy rotates in on Tuesday. As of this morning, activity appears as though it will be relegated to far NW CT.

The next storm system to watch appears as though it has trended to during the day on Saturday. After going back and forth yesterday, models seem to be keying in on a light to potentially moderate snowstorm from Saturday morning to Saturday afternoon. Will continue to watch this, but a 1-3/2-4” seems like the most likely solution, with a larger storm still possible as we remain 96+ hours away from the event.

01/07/2025

Tracking a winter storm that will move off the East Coast by this weekend. How much snow could we get?

01/03/2025

Forecast Discussion 1/3: Flurries and Forecast Faux Pas

Morning satellite reveals mostly sunny skies across the region. Lake effect snow showers from the Great Lakes overperformed expectations yesterday, making it further into CT than modeled. With this in mind, cannot rule out a flurry or snow shower this afternoon through tonight as the lake effect snow machine continues and a weak disturbance passes to our south, bringing snow to parts of New Jersey and Delaware. An isolated coating is possible, especially in the Litchfield Hills, but overall, no significant impacts expected.

Saturday and Sunday will feature partly cloudy and dry weather, before all attention turns to the next storm threat being tracked that looks to move in on Monday. The most recent model trends as of this morning have suppressed the storm back to the south, with only flurries over the Southern half of CT. We will continue to monitor the energy evolution with this system, as a slight shift north could result in a C-2/1-3 scenario for the state. Temperatures will be running in the upper 20s to low 30s through period.

Other than that, the long-range outlook through the middle of the month continues to look colder than average, with additional opportunities for winter storms possible.

01/02/2025

Forecast Discussion 1/2/25: Windy and Colder

Our long duration WIND ADVISORY continues through this evening. Winds have already gusted 35 to 45 mph through much of the area, and gusts 40 to 50 mph are likely during the day today, which could result in isolated to scattered power outages. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the middle to upper 30s across the area today. The winds will die down a bit late Thursday afternoon, but it will remain breezy (gusts 20 to 30 mph) for Thursday night and Friday.

Friday through Sunday appear dry and seasonably cold, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s across the area. The next storm threat being tracked looks to move in Sunday night into Monday. Models have not ironed out the exact track of this system, but recent trends have taken the track more northward, bringing snow to CT. This will need to be monitored over the next few days, but if there is an additional trend to the north, a plowable solution appears possible, especially with cold air in place.

Other than that, the long-range outlook through the middle of the month continues to look colder than average, with additional opportunities for winter storms possible.

01/01/2025

Forecast Discussion 1/1/25: HAPPY NEW YEAR

Happy New Year! Morning satellite shows some fog across the region but expecting this fog to burn off over the next couple of hours. Colder air will work in behind this New Year’s system, with windy conditions Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A long duration WIND ADVISORY has been issued for the entire region for this interval. Gusts 40 to 50 mph are likely from a westerly direction, which could result in isolated to scattered power outages.

Thursday through Sunday appear dry and seasonably cold, with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s across the area. The long-range forecast still appears cold and unsettled. We will likely be watching the chance for winter storms through at least the middle of January with a favorable global-scale pattern for cold in the Eastern US, the first of which could impact the area Monday into Tuesday. As of right now this threat appears suppressed, but changes to track are likely as this is still several days away.

12/31/2024

Forecast Discussion: New Year's Eve

Morning satellite shows clear skies over the region. Temperatures did approach freezing across some interior areas, so cannot rule out some black ice this morning especially across Northern CT. Sunshine will continue for the first part of Tuesday until clouds increase Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next system. This storm has also taken an inland track, with low pressure expected to pass close to overhead by Tuesday night. With warm air in place, confidence is high in an all-rain solution. The approximate start time has been pushed back a hair, as rain is set to begin 7PM to 9PM Tuesday, with rain continuing through 5AM to 7AM Wednesday. Make sure you are prepared for rain if you are planning to ring in the New Year.

Colder air will work in behind this New Year’s system, with windy conditions Wednesday night and Thursday. A WIND ADVISORY may be needed, especially on Thursday. The long-range forecast appears cold and unsettled. We will likely be watching the chance for winter storms through at least the middle of January with a favorable global-scale pattern for cold in the Eastern US, the first of which could impact the area Monday into Tuesday.

12/30/2024

Forecast Discussion 12/30:

Rain is moving out this morning across the region with a storm total 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain being reported at most stations. Heavy rain has moved East as of 7AM, with some residual showers slowly ending. Conditions will be improving rapidly as we head through the remainder of the morning, and clearing is expected after 10AM in most areas. Temperatures will remain steady around 50 degrees through midday and then fall as we lose peak daytime heating in the afternoon.

Sunshine will continue for the first part of Tuesday until clouds increase Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next system. This storm has also taken an inland track, with low pressure expected to pass close to overhead. With warm air in place, confidence is high in an all-rain solution. The approximate start time of the rain will be 5PM to 7PM Tuesday, with rain continuing through 5AM to 7AM Wednesday.

Colder air will work in behind this New Year’s system, with windy conditions Wednesday night and Thursday. A WIND ADVISORY may be needed, especially on Thursday. The long-range forecast appears cold and unsettled. We will likely be watching the chance for winter storms through at least the middle of January with a favorable global-scale pattern for cold in the Eastern US.

12/27/2024

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DISCUSSION:

A warm front will approach the area Friday night with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle possible after midnight into the Saturday morning commute. The timing of most concern is approximately 1AM to 7AM across the region. While warm air will attempt to move in during this period, it may be slow to exit valley locations, especially around the Central CT River Valleys. This process, known as Cold Air Damming (CAD), is notoriously under-modeled, which is likely why the NWS forecast is more bullish on freezing rain than most modeling. In this specific situation, however, the high-pressure system will be migrating to our SE during the event and lack of a true “cold drain” via NE wind would have me lean towards lower impacts outside of the aforementioned valleys, especially after 7AM tomorrow morning. A light glaze of ice is possible in shoreline locations with a few hundredths of an inch of ice across the interior.