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10/13/2025

Forecast Discussion 10/13:

Radar shows showers continue to work in as our coastal storm has stalled off the New Jersey coastline this morning. Expect periods of rain today to go along with gusty NE winds. Peak gusts thus far have reached about 35 to 45 mph across the state, with shoreline cities such as Bridgeport and New Haven recording close to 50 mph gusts already. Maximum wind gusts will continue until midday today, before slowly ramping down this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts are currently expected to range between 1.0-inches and 2.5-inches total. Finally, minor coastal flooding was reported this morning across most Long Island Sound sites, with a COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY continuing through the day today.

The storms will slowly ramp down this afternoon and evening, with showers becoming more isolated overnight. There could be some residual showers that make it into Tuesday morning, but we will slowly begin to dry out from west to east on Tuesday. High pressure will build in for the rest of the week, with mostly sunny skies expected Tuesday through Sunday. Highs will be seasonable for the period, with highs generally in the 60 and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

10/09/2025

Forecast Discussion: 10/9/25

Today will be mostly sunny and much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s for most. Have the jacket handy as the cool air will be accompanied by a breezy northerly wind with gusts to 20 mph. A FREEZE WARNING has been issued for all of interior CT and the Hudson Thursday night into Friday morning, with temperatures dipping inro the low to mid 30s Friday morning. Regardless of if freeze conditions are met, the first widespread frost looks likely for many.

Friday and Saturday look relatively seasonable with highs in the 60s and mostly sunny skies expected. All attention then turns to a coastal low forming off the Carolinas that could impact our weather Sunday into Tuesday. Today’s data shows a consistent trend in which a mid-latitude system tracking through the Great Lakes may interact with a developing low off the coast of the Carolinas.

This interaction could result in a consolidated system that resembles a classic nor’easter, impacting southern New England with periods of rain and gusty winds. Should this evolution occur, the most notable impact may be the wind. Gusts in the range of 30 to 45 mph are possible, with elevated and coastal areas most susceptible. These winds could persist for 24 to 36 hours, beginning late Sunday and continuing through Monday. Rainfall amounts are currently expected to range between 1 and 2 inches, which should limit widespread flooding concerns. However, localized issues cannot be ruled out, especially in areas prone to poor drainage.

Confidence in this forecast remains moderate to low due to the complex nature of the interaction between the two systems. Additionally, the potential involvement of tropical moisture from Hurricane Jerry introduces further uncertainty regarding precipitation intensity and storm structure. With the event still 4 to 5 days out, forecast details are subject to change, and continued monitoring is advised. Residents along the shoreline should pay particular attention to this system, as coastal flooding may become a concern depending on the storm’s timing, track, and tidal cycles. Further updates will refine the expected impacts as newer guidance becomes available.

10/08/2025

Forecast Discussion 10/8:

It is raining across the area this morning. Expect periods of rain through noontime, with partial clearing from west to east this afternoon. Radar indicates there are a couple area of moderate to heavy rainfall, but generally the line associated with this cold front is broken and rather underwhelming. I would expect rainfall totals on the lower end of the forecast range, with many folks receiving about 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain with a few locally higher amounts Winds will shift out of the north with morning and gust 20-25 mph with the frontal passage this afternoon. Temperatures will get stuck in the upper 60s to low 70s as cooler air pushes in.

Thursday will be mostly sunny and much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s for most. A FREEZE WATCH has been issued for all of interior CT Thursday night into Friday morning, with temperatures dipping inro the low to mid 30s Friday morning. Regardless of if freeze conditions are met, the first widespread frost looks likely for many.

Friday and Saturday look relatively seasonable with highs in the 60s and mostly sunny skies expected. All attention then turns to a coastal low forming off the Carolinas that could impact our weather Sunday into Tuesday. Due to the nature of this setup, I would stress low confidence with this system as the upper level pattern has not been well resolved on the models. We should have more confidence in a solution by tomorrow, but showers and breezy conditions look more likely late Sunday through at least Monday, with an outside chance of higher impact ‘nor’easter-type’ rain and wind conditions. Please stay tuned.

10/07/2025

Forecast Discussion 10/7:

Satellite reveals mostly clear skies across the region this morning to go along with some areas of patchy fog. Any fog will burn off quickly this morning with mostly sunny skies expected again today. There could be some high clouds later in the day. Temperatures will continue to run about 10 to 12 degrees above average today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

No major changes to the forecast regarding a frontal passage tonight into early Wednesday morning. There is now good model agreement on periods of rain from 12AM to 10AM Wednesday, clearing by midday Wednesday from west to east. About 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rainfall is expected through the forecast period using blend of guidance. Following this cold frontal passage, temperatures drop back into the 60s for highs by Wednesday. This cool airmass could result our first widespread interior frost Thursday night, with lows currently modeled in the middle to upper 30s.

Long range, models are suggesting a coastal storm develops near the Carolinas by Friday and Saturday. Models 24 hours ago suggested this storm may move up the coastline and impact the forecast area with nor’easter type conditions, but the latest trends have been for strong high pressure to suppress this system to our south. Plenty of time to watch, but keeping the long range forecast partly cloudy for now.

10/06/2025

Forecast Discussion 10/6:

Satellite reveals mostly clear skies across the region this morning to go along with some areas of patchy fog. Any fog will burn off quickly this morning with mostly sunny skies expected again today. Temperatures will continue to run about 10 to 12 degrees above average today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This will be nearly the identical forecast to Tuesday, with another warm and mostly sunny day expected.

No major changes to the forecast regarding a frontal passage late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. There is now good model agreement on periods of rain from 2AM to 10AM Wednesday, clearing by midday Wednesday from west to east. About 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall is expected.

Following this cold frontal passage, temperatures drop back into the 60s for highs by Wednesday. This cool airmass could result our first widespread interior frost Thursday night, with lows currently modeled in the middle to upper 30s. Otherwise, it will be another quiet forecast period with seasonable temperatures and mostly sunny skies.

Great shot of some sun dogs today taken by our Meteorologist Mike Frascione. 🌈
10/02/2025

Great shot of some sun dogs today taken by our Meteorologist Mike Frascione. 🌈

More high clouds around for this evening... are we in for another pretty sunset? They have been awesome lately.Credit Da...
10/02/2025

More high clouds around for this evening... are we in for another pretty sunset? They have been awesome lately.

Credit Dave King

As moves away from Bermuda the tropics have quieted down for the moment. There are a couple of areas shaded in yellow ...
10/02/2025

As moves away from Bermuda the tropics have quieted down for the moment. There are a couple of areas shaded in yellow worth watching in the coming days, but certainly no threats to the Northeast at the moment.

10/01/2025

Forecast Discussion 10/1:

Welcome to October! Autumn will finally make itself known across Connecticut starting Wednesday. Expect plenty of sunshine to go along with a stiff northerly breeze, thanks to the area being wedged between building high pressure and Imelda and Humberto well offshore. Winds could gust 25 to mph at times on Wednesday. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s— a few degrees below normal for early October. Wednesday night will be clear and chilly, especially in the northwest hills where temperatures could dip into the mid to upper 30s. Most other areas will see lows in the 40s. While frost isn’t officially in the forecast yet, patchy frost is possible in colder spots like Litchfield County.

Thursday continues the sunny streak, though some thin clouds may move in later in the day. Highs will again be in the mid-60s. Overnight skies remain mostly clear, but those cirrus clouds could limit how much temperatures drop, so expect temps to be in the low 40s.

From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, high pressure will dominate, keeping things dry and pleasant. Temperatures will gradually warm, reaching the low to mid 70s by Saturday and possibly upper 70s by Sunday and Monday—about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Nights will be cool but not cold, with lows mostly in the 50s. A cold front may approach late Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers, but timing is still uncertain.

09/30/2025

Forecast Discussion 9/30:

Morning satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies across the area as high clouds from Tropical Storm Imelda linger. High pressure will continue to be in control, with a cold front moving through dry by this evening. Tuesday will be partly sunny and warm once again with highs again in the upper 70s to near 80. Many reported a great sunset last night with high clouds from Imelda. Expect another opportunity for a great sunset this evening if cloud conditions persist as forecast.

Winds will shift to the northeast and strengthen overnight tonight, with gusts 20 to 25 mph possible. This wind is associated with the pressure gradient between high pressure to out north and Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda off the SE US Coast. Cooler air will bring lows down to the 40s across much of the region by Wednesday morning.

No major changes to the extended forecast. From Wednesday through Sunday, expect another dry and relatively quiet weather period. Breezy northeast winds continue into Thursday, with gusts up to 25 mph. Highs will be in the 60s by midweek, with some inland valleys dipping into the upper 30s at night. By Friday and into the weekend, temperatures will gradually warm back into the 70s as high pressure remains in control.

09/25/2025

Forecast Discussion: 9/25

Rounds of showers and downpours are moving through the region this morning. Expect periods of rain to continue through the day today, The rainfall may be heavy at times, and we cannot rule out some urban, poor drainage and street flooding. It will be warm and humid with dew points rising to near 70, and precipitable water (PWAT) values of near or greater than 2. This is a clear indicator of the potential for heavy rainfall.

As the cold front approaches during the afternoon, a line of storms is may try to form through the area – moving NW to SE through CT. Given strong atmospheric wind profiles and low level wind shear, an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. The SPC has now highlighted the Hudson Valley and much of CT in a Level 1 severe risk along with a 2% risk of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Thinking at this stage the greatest threat is to our SW of the region over Pennsylvania and New Jersey, but it is certainly worth keeping an eye out for weather warnings this afternoon.

There could be some lingering showers for Friday, but any activity will be lighter and confined to the morning – mostly before 8AM. By the weekend, I expect sunshine to continue as high pressure builds in from the northwest on Saturday. We do have to keep an eye on the tropics, however, as a pair of tropical waves are likely to form into Tropical Storms/Hurricanes by this weekend, potentially influencing our weather pattern early next week. Stay tuned!

09/24/2025

Forecast Discussion 9/24:

Inland areas did better with rainfall last night, as thunderstorms produced about 0.50 to 1.0 inches of rain across the I84 corridor, while coastal areas saw little to no rainfall. Patchy areas of fog and drizzle are being reported this morning as the frontal system has mostly stalled out over the area.

Wednesday will be mainly dry, although isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop again during the afternoon and evening, especially across the interior. Areas on the shoreline that have missed out on rainfall will have a better chance tonight into Thursday, as shower activity becomes more numerous and widespread. There continues to be higher confidence in a washout for Thursday, with periods of rain throughout the day. The rainfall may be heavy at times, and we cannot rule out some urban, poor drainage and street flooding.

There could be some lingering showers for Friday, but any activity will be lighter. Changed the forecast to ‘partly cloudy’ with just an isolated chance of showers. By the weekend, expecting sunshine to return as high pressure builds in from the northwest. We do have to keep an eye on the tropics, however, as a pair of tropical waves are likely to form into Tropical Storms by this weekend, potentially influencing our weather pattern early next week. Stay tuned!

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