Tomorrow is an extremely interesting forecast. A derecho could be possible for parts of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana.
Currently, models are starting storms at around noon and continually have them intensifying and congealing into an intense MCS (linear storm).
Significant damaging wind gusts could be possible, along with short-lived tornadoes. Most models show the storms being north of here as of right now, but things can change.
If storms DO end up being earlier and further south, I will be out chasing LIVE on YouTube.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms look to begin within the next 1-2 hours. They will continue throughout the afternoon and possibly into the early evening.
Severe hail and damaging winds are possible.
I will be live on YouTube covering this threat.
Some severe weather will be possible tomorrow afternoon/evening. Main threats include large hail, damaging winds, and a smaller threat for tornadoes. Storms look to form just north of us around 4-6pm and move southward towards our area.
I have my college orientation, but will be home around 4:45-5 to chase this threat. Stay weather aware!
This post is a long discussion detailing the possible severe weather tomorrow, click the (read more) button to read it all!
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Introduction:
2 rounds of possibly significant severe weather look likely tomorrow morning and afternoon. Tornadoes (some possibly strong), large hail, and significant damaging winds all appear likely.
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Round 1 (possibly between 9am and 11am):
There is a solid chance the first round will miss us; however, if it does hit us, it'll happen around 9-11am. This round would mainly have a hail and damaging wind risk. Unlike most setups in the midwest, this first round will actually aid the later in the afternoon storms by creating boundaries that could support stronger tornado production.
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Round 2 (possibly between ~4pm and ~6pm):
This is the main round of storms. Strong tornadoes, significant winds up to 90mph, and large hail up to 3" are all possible with this mode. The main timing for this portion seems to be between 4 pm and 6 pm. During this timing, please try to be inside a structure of some sort and not a vehicle. If at all possible, please refrain from any outdoor activities at this time as this storm will be fast moving and could hit within 30 minutes of a warning issuance.
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Conclusion:
This is possibly the most high-end event that our state has been under since last March, with this in mind, things can happen. As with all severe weather, nothing is for certain, and in a moments notice the storms could dissipate or strengthen. Please stay weather aware tomorrow, I will also be LIVE on YouTube chasing the threat from the beginning to the end!
Severe-warned thunderstorm in Centerville, Iowa. #IAwx
Spotty pop-up thunderstorms will be possible after 3pm today. Brief heavy rain and small hail could be possible.
Cloud cover around 1-3am tonight looks solid for our area. The aurora forecast remains the same and a G4 storm is expected.
To put that forecast into perspective, the last time a G4 watch was issued was over 20 years ago!!!
If you are able to stay up for the show, do it! Your naked eye may be able to see the show, but if you have a camera I recommend using it on long exposure!!!
Additionally, I will be live on YouTube the entire time keeping you guys updated!!!
Late this evening (between 10pm & 12am) there will be a line of strong to severe thunderstorms coming through our area. Main threats include damaging winds and tornadoes. I will be live on YouTube around 8pm, my plan is to head west then chase this threat back east.
Re-watching my footage from last Friday has been crazy, the full video will be uploaded tomorrow.
Look at that crazy partial vorticy on the bottom right of the video right after the tornado destroyed a barn.
I will be chasing in South Central Iowa once again tomorrow around 6pm. Tornadoes, hail, wind, and incredible sunset storm structure will all be possible. I will be live on YouTube as well.
Semi-isolated supercells are looking to form around 2-4pm along the IA/NE border and make their way east throughout the afternoon and early evening. The highest risk area for strong tornadoes is between the IA/NE border and I-35.
Our area is still under a 5% tornado but fortunately it seems like the main storms should stay west of here; however, we could still possibly get severe storms and tornadoes after dark and before midnight tonight. Stay weather aware and have multiple warning methods!
I will also be LIVE on YouTube amd with Ryan Hall Ya'll chasing this threat around 2 or 3pm!
The morning storms are expected to move out with plenty of time for clearing to take place for round 2 this afternoon. This unfortunately means that stronger tornadoes, massive hail, and damaging winds will be likely with any storm that forms after 3pm. I will be chasing live on YouTube. Please have multiple methods to recieve warnings!
The 2024 car camera setup is ready, now I just need some chases
Rain looks likely over the next few days.
Rain will begin late tomorrow through late Friday, up to 2" will be possible.
The radar vs the storm
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The Climate Prediction Center outlook for the next 2 weeks indicates that we will have slightly below average temperatures and precipitation. Expect temperatures in the mid to lower 30s in the coming weeks.
Large EF3 tornado near Hedrick, Iowa on March 31st, 2023. This day was the 3rd largest tornado outbreak in U.S. history.
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