01/12/2024
From our friend Steven Carter at the McCurtain County Weather Page:(Please Like and Share that page and consider giving them a follow)
5:15PM 1/11/2024
FORECAST UPDATE….
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THURSDAY EVENING UNTIL 6PM FRIDAY.
WINDS COULD GUST TO 40MPH BEFORE AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…..
RISKS……
1-10 SCALE
1-LOW
5- MODERATE
10-EXTREME
DAMAGING WINDS -5-MODERATE
LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 1”)
-8- HIGH
LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 2")
-5- MODERATE
TORNADO -5- MODERATE
TORNADO (EF2 OR GREATER)
-4- MODERATE
FLOODING -2- LOW
WE HAVE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 2 ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT….
THE FIRST ROUND IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 8PM AND 11PM.
THE FORST ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE ROGUE SUPERCELLS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ROTATION.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT IF THE SHEAR CAN MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE, A STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADO COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP.
WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED ON THE FIRST ROUND IT COULD LIKELY RESULT IN LARGE DAMAGING HAIL, UPTO GOLF-BALL SIZED….
AFTER MIDNIGHT, A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE COUNTY.
THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOWER WITH THE SECOND ROUND, BUT A QUICK SPINUP IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS…
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN AND SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BEFORE NOON FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR ATLEAST 80 HOURS (NEXT THURSDAY)
WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND 20s MONDAY, AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER UPDATES AND SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE WILL BE POSTED AS NEEDED..
