Mississippi Weather Center

10/31/2024

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible during the next several days across portions of the area
from Nicaragua southeastward and eastward to northern Colombia.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is producing widespread
cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent
waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow
development of this system is possible during the next 2-3 days as
it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that
time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure
area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible during the next several days from the northern
Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to
eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. North Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have developed near the center of a
storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 550 miles
west of the western Azores. However, any additional development into
a subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected to be slow to occur as
the system moves eastward during the next few days. Additional
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven

10/28/2024

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward
or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Adams

10/27/2024

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some gradual development
is possible toward the end of the week and over the weekend when the
system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the
southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

10/27/2024

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Some
gradual development of this system will be possible through the end
of next week while it meanders or drifts northeastward over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

10/25/2024

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October is spooky season! Follow along with us as we celebrate all things spooky, odd, and spine-tingling in the ocean and atmosphere with NOAA Spooky Science! NOAA Education is ready for spooky season! (Image credit: NOAA Education/Kaleigh Ballantine) Download Image Use this chilling, creepy conten

10/19/2024

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nadine, located just inland over Belize, and has just issued a
special advisory upgrading Oscar to a hurricane, located just east
of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane Oscar are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NNNN

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
..NADINE MOVING INLAND ACROSS BELIZE.....HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PARTS
OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 88.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WNW OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 65 MI...140 KM SSW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located inland near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 88.5 West.
Nadine is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster
westward motion is expected during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, Nadine is expected to move across Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southern Mexico through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Nadine will likely dissipate by late
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with
Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern
Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated
areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late
Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
through this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Special Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024
..RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE.....HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas.

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba Provence of Camaguey

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 70.6 West. Oscar is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with a gradual
slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds based on aircraft data are near 80 mph (130
km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
today before gradual weakening begins early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde
observations is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin this afternoon, making outside
preparations dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts
of 6 inches, are expected across the Turks and Caicos, southeastern
Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where
water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

10/19/2024

Coastal Flood Advisory
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
229 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Southeast St. Tammany-
Eastern Orleans-Southern Hancock-
229 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding of up to 1 foot above ground level
expected during high tide tonight.

* WHERE...In Louisiana, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard,
Southeast St. Tammany and Eastern Orleans Parishes. In
Mississippi, Southern Hancock County.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only
isolated road closures expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

10/19/2024

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

1. North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized
since yesterday with a trough of low pressure located more than 100 miles north of Puerto Rico. Some gradual development is possible this weekend while it moves generally westward at around 15 mph, passing near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. By early next week, further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Hagen

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
..HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.....TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 85.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.5 North, longitude 85.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west is
expected tonight and Saturday while the system approaches the coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is forecast
to become a tropical storm before making landfall tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
NOAA buoy 42056 in the Yucatan Basin recently reported a sustained
wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a gust of 38 mph (61 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across
northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern states of Mexico
from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts
exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on Saturday.

SURF: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow
near and to the north of where the center moves inland.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The disturbance currently located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea
has continued to increase in organization today, with persistent
showers and thunderstorms occurring around a broad low-level
circulation. Buoys and satellite-derived surface wind measurements
indicate that the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone.
However, it is becoming more likely that the system could become a
tropical cyclone in the next day or so before it reaches the coast
of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Therefore, the disturbance is being designated as Potential
Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt, and
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Belize and
the Yucatan Peninsula.

The center location remains uncertain due to the broad size of the
circulation, and the initial estimate of the current motion is
300/6 kt. Steered by mid-level easterly flow, the system is
expected to turn westward tonight and reach the coast of Central
America on Saturday. Thereafter, it is expected to move inland
before dissipating on Sunday. The NHC forecast is close to the
simple and corrected consensus models.

Conditions are generally favorable for modest intensification, with
light vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures.
However, the disturbance has less than one day before it moves
inland. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the
official forecast indicates that the disturbance will reach low-end
tropical storm status prior to landfall and then weaken before
dissipating on Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and
high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are
possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it
treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and
northern Belize.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi