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Reliable winter weather forecasts for Upstate NY, with special focus on Central New York and Tug Hill It's more than just snowfall. The type of snow that falls.

Snowmobiling in New York State is very popular and highly dependent on weather conditions. Temperatures. Winds. These conditions can make snowmobiling fun or frustrating. Sometimes both in the same day. Upstate Snow was started in 2012 specifically to give snowmobilers in Upstate New York a resource of weather information and content that specifically would help them plan their rides and where the

best places would be to ride. More detailed and specific information not given in standard NWS forecasts or on local TV weather reports. Over the last 8+ years we've gained a big following. A lot of snowmobilers sure, but many whom like our style of forecasting and reporting on the weather and snowmobiling in general and use it for planning (or avoiding) travel across Upstate NY. However you use the site and this free service, we hope it's a benefit to you. If you wish to become a sponsor on our website or for our podcasts, email [email protected] for more information. We encourage you to help the clubs (both financially and with your time in doing the work needed to get the trails ready), respect the clubs, respect each other, and treat others (on the trail and anywhere else) the way you would want to be treated.

08/15/2024

The Farmer's Almanac releases their official 2024-25 winter forecast! What is going on here! Will it snow? YES! Will it snow a lot like years past or a little like the last several years? THAT is the big question. One whom tells you on August 15th will probably NOT have as good of an idea as NOVEMBER 15th! Like us. Stay tuned!

08/10/2024

Ay yo! How ya doin?

Just a reminder we are NOT in snowfall season. We still have another 60-90 days to go before we can legitimately talk about snowfall. Any snowfall. About 3-4 months to go before winter could really start like it did in 2018-19. That was THE LAST TIME winter really started off with a BANG. It has been six years now since winter really got off the way it should have around here.

Will the drought end this year? Let me know your thoughts on this. Nothing else we can do now anyway.

08/01/2024

Welcome to August! And the time of year when the amount of daylight starts to really fall off. September is worse! In 60 days we go from about 14 1/2 hours of daylight to about 11 1/2.

07/28/2024

We are getting to the time of year when all of *these* things start coming out of the woodwork.

It’s July 28th. Forgedaboudit!!!

The only way to make ACTUAL maps that have an ACTUAL chance of being right, is by studying ACTUAL data, seasonal changes in September, October and November. IN THE FALL. Then we can ACTUALLY predict the winter, for December through March time frame.

It’s not 100% but it is WAY better than this CRAP!

06/30/2024

You get into the mid 90s with sky high humidity… and you get THIS!

04/28/2024

To the moon Alice 😂

03/22/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/its-a-spring-snow-03-22-24/

Hello! How are you? Well what did you think I was going to do? One more time!!! So get your laughs out loud and ready to roll...

Good morning! After two weeks I am back, ready for more punishment, because, why else would I be here? It’s late March and with the exception of minor snowfalls downwind of the Great Lakes, and about 4-8 inches worth up on the Tug Hill and in the Adirondacks, the rest of Upstate NY is bare

03/08/2024

It's March and it snows sometimes in March. Could get nothing. Could get 3 feet in a day. At least we have something to share for what it is worth... if anything...

Good afternoon Upstate Snow Nation! The snow has melted pretty much everywhere, even across the higher elevations of the Tug Hill and the Adirondacks. With temperatures there in the 40s and 50s this afternoon and ZERO SNOW on the ground, even at the higher elevations, I don’t think this forecast l...

02/25/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/thank-you-for-another-season/

I never imagined putting out an end of season message on February 25th. But this year I am. Unless something super major happens in Mid to Late March, it's goodbye until 2025 for most of us. Here are my parting words for this season:

I did not expect to do this. Not on February 25th. Even in 2017 and 2018 that had record late February temperatures and all snow gone, but back then there was still hope heading into March. Especially in 2018. From March 2 through all of March that year, below to well below average temperatures and

02/15/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-02-15-24/

Snowfall amounts actually have GONE UP a few inches for some areas. Amazing! There will be some riding this President's Day Weekend, if you know where to go, and use your snowmobile wisely!

OK folks… the clipper is looking moderate to strong in intensity. It is just hours away and is about to crush Upstate NY in a matter of hours with moderate to heavy snow and winds of 30-50 MPH. Since this looks like a good hit, and with increased flow and lake effect especially off of

02/14/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-02-14-24/

A halfway decent clipper system is moving dead at Upstate NY and is 24-36 hours away. That's why I waited to put up the accumulation map. This will not go to zero! And there are more snow showers after this which means... maybe some riding this holiday weekend? Cautiously optimistic...

Happy Valentine’s Day! Here we are in the dead of winter. Nearly every year we have snow on the ground and riding conditions over a good part of if not all of Upstate NY. Not this year. Even in the Tug Hill and Adirondacks, we are in “ultra die hard” mode. Any riding you can

02/13/2024

Good morning! Yep… WIDE RIGHT! No good 😞

Next shots at ANY snow are localized lake effect tonight and a clipper with light snows later Thursday PM into early Friday AM. With no snow around most of Upstate NY with the exception of the Adirondacks and Tug Hill, I am not going to say this will be enough to ride this weekend. But there is a chance some pockets of Upstate NY will actually be able to ride this weekend. Barely.

02/12/2024

So what’s happened??? The forecast has dramatically shifted 100 miles. Southbound! This means where I had 1-3 gets ZERO. 3-5 gets a trace. 5-10 gets a dusting to 2”. And 8-14 inches gets 2-5”. Only areas on the map that could see 6” or more would be the absolute bottom of the map. Sullivan, Orange, Ulster and Dutchess County. Snowmobiling in these areas is extremely limited. So basically, we are skunked. And again I am sorry.

02/11/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-02-11-24/

I'm back! Just in time for the next snowstorm to hit parts of Upstate NY starting tomorrow night and into Tuesday. We are in the Back 9 of winter now. Any snow we get will be at a premium. Expect low snow conditions if you do decide to ride... AFTER this falls!

Hey there everyone! I am BACK!!! I know these weeks have been difficult for you. You have not known where I have been. Taking off after my best 3 month swing in history. The weather turned warm. Again. Then warmer and warmer. By the end of last week, we were not only in record territory,

02/01/2024

So why not make it a 2 for 1 today? You've got it! Enjoy...

I am still here!!! Good morning Upstate Snow Nation! It has been 15 days since I last saw you guys. You have been missed! And it shall be several more days at least before I see you again. But in the meantime HELLO! How are you? And I hope and pray you are all well!

02/01/2024

Good morning Upstate Snow Nation! It has been two full weeks since I last spoke to you. It will likely be another 1-2 weeks before I speak to you again. In the back 9 of winter. Yet again.

Snowfall just isn’t what it used to be. For the 5th straight year, every single year since I have returned to Upstate Snow in 2019, below normal snow is the rule.

By the time we get the second half of winter going, it will probably be too late for some. Not for others. Regardless of who you root for, I will always be here for you. Until next time…

Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow

01/17/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-01-17-24/

It's cold! And will stay cold through this weekend before we progress towards a January thaw later next week. And I have an important announcement on Upstate Snow today. Please read, like and share this post.

Good morning Upstate Snow Nation! It’s a cold day out there so bundle up! Some spots across Upstate NY were BELOW ZERO this morning for the first time this season! You know where the lake effect will nail: Buffalo and Watertown today and tonight, before sliding back south and weakening. A dusting ...

01/16/2024

Sorry I am behind this morning. Winter Weather Advisories through tonight, then another round of heavy lake effect snow tonight through Thursday morning. Winter is here and is on FULL BLAST!

Chances of riding now through 01.22.24 – Ride however you can, whenever you can, on what you can! Chances of riding 01.23.24 through 01.29.24 – It starts to get a little more “dicey” at this point in the game. Good morning! We have Winter Weather Advisories up for most of the Central and Eas...

01/15/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-01-15-24/

Lake effect snows continuing locally this morning in WNY and in the Watertown area. These should take a break soon and allow for FOOTBALL this evening. GO BILLS! Then light snows tonight through tomorrow over all of Upstate NY with additional lake effect downwind. Again!

Welcome to MLK Day! We still have lake effect snow going on that had started on Saturday. I had figured, especially on yesterday morning’s update that there would not be a complete falloff of these localized heavy snowfalls downwind of Lake Erie and downwind of Lake Ontario. Indeed this is the cas...

01/13/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-01-13-24/

No changes in the snowfall forecast for this weekend. It may linger a little into Monday and I may be on the low side with some of the amounts. Just going to let it ride as is. A cold week is ahead next week which means where there is snow: It's time to RIDE!

Good morning! If you are looking for change from my forecast graphics, you will not find it right now in the short term. After a look at the last few short term model runs, confidence is now high on this first Lake Effect event, which should last 36 hours. Perhaps a little more. The forecast

01/12/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-01-12-24/

Well we had been warning you the warmth would end, winter's true cold would return in full, and the lake effect would return full bore. Starting tomorrow during the day and going through Sunday Night - DING DING DING! Round 1!

Good morning again Upstate Snow Nation! So what the heck happened yesterday to me? My system went down. It was down for at least several hours if not more than 1/2 day. If you were looking for information during this time I am very sorry to have upset you. Once service was restored yesterday afterno...

01/10/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-01-10-24/

Some lake snows over the next day and a half mentioned here. Friday is the calm before a major cold front Saturday. TRUE WINTER WEATHER FOLLOWS THAT!

So we have some lake effect snow… even in January with air temps well into the 30s and above freezing! Because when the Great Lakes are still above 40 F, you don’t need as cold of air to set off lake effect. And that’s what will happen later this afternoon and into tonight. There will

01/08/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/hey-its-01-08-24/

Hey! I said I would make it by 7 PM didn't I? Why yes! With three minutes to spare. Enjoy!

We Finally Got Good Snow! Now What??? Most of Upstate NY did well with my accumulations for the Saturday Night and Sunday storm. I’m thankful that you did and a majority of the state hit my ranges. Again a few areas were more than expected and a few less, but dealing with Upstate NY, I

01/08/2024

Good evening Upstate Snow Nation! And I literally mean… the nation!

First off, I am so sorry to be long gone and without a wince for 3 1/2 days. I was in Tennessee for a long overdue family vacation. The laptop was left behind and I had no way to touch base with y’all… until NOW!

Over the next 60-120 minutes, I promise I will be studying and getting you all caught up on this heavy El Niño Crappo Weather-o-!!!

Just sit tight. I should have everything done by 7 PM if not before. That should anchor us until Wednesday morning. Thanks for all your support, all your prayers and all your likes!

Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
January 8, 2024

01/05/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-01-05-24/

Updated snowfall map for you all to show a little more snow a little more north and west. This will not be an epic storm but it will be a decent one. A much bigger storm coming middle of next week with high winds, rainfall, and warmer temperatures.

OK so I am ready to roll this Friday Morning with updated accumulation maps. Basically I went farther north and west with my 2-5 and 4-8 ranges as I see these numbers getting more clearance than double digits. Those numbers remain most possible from the Binghamton area, through Oneonta, the Catskill...

01/04/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/trail-talk-thursday-01-04-24/

I had wanted to hold off on the accumulation map for later today or into tomorrow BUT with basically all of the short term models now in excellent agreement, I decided to fly one out there for this weekend. The much bigger storm with snow to rain and lots of WIND comes Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Welcome to El Nino!

Chance of riding through 01.10.24 – It all depends on what that storm this weekend does. And how much we can heal the wounds of our epically poor conditions right now Chance of riding 01.11.24 through 01.17.24 – It all depends on how much warm air and wind hit how much snow we got prior

01/03/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/the-morning-blog-01-03-24/

The first snowfall map in 16 days has arrived! It's not much. The snowfall map for this weekend (that should come by Friday AM) that one should be much better. Then more storms after that. The pattern is active now. Stay in touch with me daily!

Good morning! For the first time in 16 days, I have actually created a snowfall map! YAY! It turns out a lot of the lake effect that’s hitting the City of Buffalo and points east, and also the Tug Hill, is not being picked up even on the more recent model runs. That’s not good.

01/02/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/trail-talk-tuesday-1-2-24/

It's crap now. We all know that. The changes are coming. We all know that too. It's getting closer to becoming reality and becoming the wholesale start of the season, probably next week. Fingers crossed!

Chance of riding through 1/8/24: Pretty much ZERO anywhere in Upstate NY until the Sunday 1/7/24 storm blows through. Chance of riding 1/9/24 through 1/15/24: It’s looking a whole lot better than it was days ago. Now it’s looking much better than 50/50! Good morning! We have nothing but junk rig...

01/01/2024

https://www.upstatesnow.com/new-year-new-forecast-01-01-24/

We still have nearly a week to go before the first storm of 2024 finally threatens Upstate NY. Will it come far enough north? Will it stay far enough out? Does the second week of January and beyond finally come through with what we have been saying about winter?

Happy New Year from all of us at Upstate Snow! Even all one of me 🙂 We are looking at sunshine and near normal to slightly above normal conditions for today and for tomorrow. With no snow on the ground pretty much anywhere is it even worth it to mention all trails in NYS open

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Videos

Not so Upstate Snow weather…

You get into the mid 90s with sky high humidity… and you get THIS!

Ok… so this may be a touch over dramatic! But today I am back in Greenville and back to my normal schedule. This means I am back into a lot of things coming up: SNOW BASH - September 16-17 BIG EAST - September 29 - October 1 But there is a much bigger piece I am working on. The daily weather updates. It’s still summer and fall like now with no real threat for anything even close to snow yet. But… you have been heard over the last week. Clearly. So… starting soon… probably next Tuesday 9/19… will be the first of extended weather outlooks on #trailtalktuesday and #trailtalkthursday. Both of these days are the best days to look ahead for snowmobiling! Tuesday is a great day to look at mid week riding and possibly the weekend. Thursday’s are perfect to look at Friday, Saturday, Sunday and possibly Monday. These two days will be the biggest days of operation for Upstate Snow going forward. Get ready… we will be ready for this. And also for Snow Bash this weekend!

OK... so I was searching through my laptop and found this GEM from 10 years ago. This was when Darrin Harr and I were trying to pitch a snowmobile report on TV. It never worked out and the website I referred to... they didn't take it. But this out-take from one of those "Snowmobile Reports" we did... CLASSIC!

Good morning Upstate Snow Nation! We are well into #summersucks mode with an ENHANCED risk for severe weather across much of Upstate NY, especially EAST of Interstate 81, this afternoon and this evening. Strong damaging winds are the biggest threat. This post is a "courtesy" heads up to you guys. This is also a heads up to those curious what I'm doing in the offseason. Attached is a video I produce on bigger weather days called WxLive, where I dive deeper into the weather goings on. In addition to this I also do a TikTok, a shorter 60-90 second weather wrap which is also on my instagram. And I also have a new weather blog on my redesigned website at richlupia.com, where, you can also purchase my homeschool weather curriculum, Wonder of Weather for Kids, and my book Unseen Hand of God. Do I have enough going on? Yeah, probably. But here it is. Please check me out on your favorite socials... whenever we are not in "ride" mode! Blessings, Rich

Upstate Snow LIVE! April 19, 2022

We are LIVE covering a major/historic late season Nor'Easter knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of customers in Upstate NY with over A FOOT OF HEAVY WET SNOW... For some... the HEAVIEST so late in the season...

Hello Upstate Snow nation! Hope you enjoyed your Palm Sunday "skiff of snow". It will be long gone with much warmer weather the next few days. I've been working hard on a lot of things, not just Upstate Snow but with richlupia.com as well. I just launched a BIG project and wanted you to know about it. Check out the video! It's only 32 seconds... you can hold on :-)

For those wanting to ride one last time, today and tomorrow are pretty much it. Tug Hill proper. Adirondacks. St Lawrence County. A few locations south and east of Syracuse at the highest elevations. Limited miles and marginal conditions. That's about it. And that's all folks later this week with 50s and 60s coming. Sorry about the not so good winter, and being a little high on snow amounts in WNY. Enjoy this final GTYR Podcast! 6 minutes and change...

Homeward bound

Ready to Ride!!!

We are on our way!

It's time for another Guide to Your Ride Podcast! Fair to Good conditions now... GOOD TO GREAT after the snow comes that we're all waiting for! The Guide to Your Ride Podcast is sponsored by Waters Edge Inn in Old Forge, NY. Check out their Sled & Stay packages and other great deals at watersedgeinn.com

WxLive Groundhog Day 645 AM

A Groundhog Day Storm will last from now until FRIDAY NIGHT across the country. This is a good storm impacting a lot of the country. Stay weather aware!

Trail conditions are at their peak for the season so far... and with a warmup coming next week, this could be one of the best weekends to ride this winter! Get the latest on trail conditions and club news directly from the presidents on the Guide to Your Ride Podcast presented by Waters Edge Inn in Old Forge, NY, watersedgeinn.com

Special WxLive/Upstate Snow joint weather discussion for Friday/Saturday Nor'easter

This storm has been well advertised for several days and is now getting closer. We detail what we know now, what we don't know now and assess impacts from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic, Upstate NY and New England...

Good morning for snowy SC… again…

It is #trailtalktuesday and this week we have the one and the only, king of snowmobiling in the Adirondacks for over 20 years, fellow Meteorologist, snowmobile buddy, and most importantly, friend. Please welcome back Darrin Harr from ilsnow.com to the podcast!

Upstate Snow LIVE - January 16, 2022

Live update on the impending winter storm. Snow totals are going back UP... to where they were before... I've added the 2" back I took away yesterday. I'll detail all the timing, impacts, details, what it means for snowmobile clubs, and I'll also look ahead later in the week and good weather conditions for keeping the snow around!

Here. Is. Snow! Want some???

Good morning! Sending love to my Upstate NY family! #snow #nywx #scwx #letitsnow

It's Guide to Your Ride Podcast time! Joining us this week is Chris Rinck from the Southern Tug Hill Sno-Riders with an update on how Tug Hill and the clubs surrounding Tug Hill are holding up with snow... and we talk somewhat about the upcoming weather. The Guide to Your Ride Podcast is sponsored by Water's Edge Inn in Old Forge, NY, watersedgeinn.com

Trail Talk Podcast #26 - Dave Gleasman! It is #trailtalktuesday and since we FINALLY have some snow, clubs getting going and riders getting going... how about a conversation between fellow riders eh?