Geopolitical Futures

Geopolitical Futures Geopolitical Futures A 100% subscriber-supported geopolitical forecasting publication, providing unbiased analysis of global events. Founded by George Friedman.
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Global growth is stabilizing as inflation nears target levels.  Global trade recovered in 2024, driven largely by steady...
01/31/2025

Global growth is stabilizing as inflation nears target levels. Global trade recovered in 2024, driven largely by steady growth in the goods trade in emerging economies. Overall growth remains weak, however, hindering sustainable economic development.

Could the election of Joseph Aoun as the new president of Lebanon bring genuine change after decades of rampant corrupti...
01/29/2025

Could the election of Joseph Aoun as the new president of Lebanon bring genuine change after decades of rampant corruption and government mismanagement?

Many see Aoun’s election and the subsequent appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister as a bloodless coup that could overthrow the corrupt political and business establishment that has ruled the country for more than 80 years.

There’s a broad sense of optimism in Lebanon that the election of Joseph Aoun as president earlier this month could bring genuine change after decades of

Two seemingly independent events – the recent declaration of a state of emergency by the government in Bogota and the Un...
01/28/2025

Two seemingly independent events – the recent declaration of a state of emergency by the government in Bogota and the United States’ planned review of Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela – suggest a confrontation between Washington and Caracas is in the offing.

Last week, two seemingly independent events – the declaration of a state of emergency by the government in Bogota and the United States’ planned review of

01/28/2025

🌐 A Russian delegation that includes the country’s deputy foreign minister and special envoy to Syria arrived in Damascus, the first official visit by Russian officials to the country since former leader Bashar Assad’s ouster in December.

Relatedly, BBC reported last week that two Russian cargo ships under U.S. sanction were docked at the Tartus naval base, indicating Moscow could be preparing to evacuate the facility after the transitional Syrian government reportedly canceled Russia’s lease for the port.

2025 Outlook for the Global EconomyGrowth is stabilizing, but at a lower level.The World Bank has released its 2025 glob...
01/28/2025

2025 Outlook for the Global Economy
Growth is stabilizing, but at a lower level.
The World Bank has released its 2025 global growth forecast. The key takeaway is that global growth is stabilizing as inflation nears target levels. Global trade recovered in 2024, driven largely by steady growth in the goods trade in emerging economies. Overall growth remains weak, however, hindering sustainable economic development. The World Bank attributes this to heightened political uncertainty, adverse trade policies and persistent inflation affecting both developed and developing economies.
Regional growth prospects vary significantly, shaped by specific geopolitical tensions and country-level challenges. For instance, ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, expanding trade restrictions and instability in the Middle East are weighing on production, trade flows and broader economic performance. The outlook for major economies such as the U.S., China and Russia remains subdued, partly due to weaker domestic demand.

2025 Forecast: ChinaWhat's ahead this year for the Chinese economy, its military, trade with the U.S., and for Chinese P...
01/27/2025

2025 Forecast: China
What's ahead this year for the Chinese economy, its military, trade with the U.S., and for Chinese President President Xi Jinping? Subscribers sign in for our 2025 Forecast for China, available now: https://ow.ly/SaNY50UNPw8

The World Bank has released its 2025 global growth forecast. Growth is stabilizing, but at a lower level. Details in thi...
01/26/2025

The World Bank has released its 2025 global growth forecast. Growth is stabilizing, but at a lower level. Details in this week's free graphic:

(click to enlarge) The World Bank has released its 2025 global growth forecast. The key takeaway is that global growth is stabilizing as inflation nears

Argentina’s Milei Races Against TimeArgentina’s economy has undergone dramatic changes since President Javier Milei took...
01/24/2025

Argentina’s Milei Races Against Time
Argentina’s economy has undergone dramatic changes since President Javier Milei took office over a year ago. Our new Graphic Essay explores the current economic and social landscape in Argentina and Milei's “shock therapy” reforms:

Argentina’s economy has undergone dramatic changes since President Javier Milei took office over a year ago. His “shock therapy” reforms, aimed at

South Asia is in the throes of a major geopolitical realignment. In the east, Bangladesh is gravitating away from India ...
01/24/2025

South Asia is in the throes of a major geopolitical realignment. In the east, Bangladesh is gravitating away from India following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her pro-Indian regime. Meanwhile, in the west, Pakistan is in conflict with the Afghan Taliban, Islamabad’s ally for decades and ruler of Afghanistan since 2021. These developments could complicate India’s ongoing emergence as a global economic player, not to mention efforts by China – which is in the midst of a serious political and economic downturn – to exert greater control in Eurasia and the Indian Ocean basin.

Since the Taliban reestablished their emirate in Afghanistan more than three years ago, relations between Pakistan and its former proxy have deteriorated into open hostility. The conflict centers on the Taliban emirate’s desire for strategic depth, which has led it to support Pakistan’s own Taliban insurgents, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Islamabad’s attempts at diplomacy – both with the Taliban regime in Kabul and the TTP – have failed. Instead, those efforts have emboldened the TTP, which operates under sanctuary provided by Afghanistan’s rulers. The results have been devastating: In 2024 alone, the TTP carried out nearly 450 attacks against Pakistan’s security forces, causing over 1,600 fatalities. The Taliban regime’s support for a potential sister emirate on Pakistani soil has brought Islamabad to the brink of a military intervention.

01/23/2025

Editor’s note: If it feels as though the world is changing, that’s because it is. Global economic reconfiguration, demographic decline and geopolitical

01/23/2025

2025 Forecast: RussiaWhat's ahead this year for the Russian economy, its military, and for Russian President Vladimir Pu...
01/22/2025

2025 Forecast: Russia
What's ahead this year for the Russian economy, its military, and for Russian President Vladimir Putin? Subscribers sign in for our 2025 Forecast for Russia, available now:

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, then a shell of its former self, was forced to spend the following decades restoring its military

01/22/2025

🌐 Russia will likely supply natural gas to Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria via Turkey, according to Russian newspaper Kommersant. The outlet reported that Cypriot company Ozbor Enterprises booked a section of the TurkStream pipeline with a capacity consistent with Transnistria’s gas needs, and that deliveries could begin as early as Feb. 1.

French influence in Africa is steadily and perhaps inexorably on the decline.This comes after a series of rebukes by Wes...
01/21/2025

French influence in Africa is steadily and perhaps inexorably on the decline.

This comes after a series of rebukes by West and Central African nations that, over the past year or so, have taken steps to remove French military assets from their territories. The situation, however, is more complex than it appears. And for France, the consequences of losing its influence are many. https://ow.ly/jymK50UKpbf

China’s Alternate Route to EuropeA launch ceremony for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway was held late last year.C...
01/20/2025

China’s Alternate Route to Europe
A launch ceremony for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway was held late last year.
China is actively seeking a route to Europe that bypasses Russia, driven by Western sanctions that obstruct trade and instability along sea routes. Such a route would enable China to expand its exports, enhance its competitiveness and speed up delivery while increasing trade volumes. At a time when the Chinese economy is under immense pressure, achieving these objectives is critical. Fortunately for Beijing, next door is Central Asia, which not only includes dynamic developing economies such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan but also could serve as China’s link with Europe.
In late 2024, Kyrgyzstan hosted the launch ceremony for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, a long-awaited project along the historical Silk Road. Originally proposed by Uzbekistan in 1996, the project gained traction only recently due to geopolitical pressures stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia and Belarus. The CKU railway is expected to transport up to 15 million tons of cargo annually, cutting delivery times to Europe by seven days compared to current routes. For Central Asia’s landlocked nations, the railway promises transformative benefits, including access to China’s coastal ports. However, building the infrastructure demands substantial investment, time and resources – factors complicated by China’s economic slowdown. Furthermore, regional players such as Russia are wary of Beijing’s expanding influence in what they consider their sphere of influence.

South Asia is in the throes of a major geopolitical realignment. Bangladesh is gravitating away from India, while Pakist...
01/20/2025

South Asia is in the throes of a major geopolitical realignment. Bangladesh is gravitating away from India, while Pakistan is looking in unfamiliar places for an ally against the Taliban. Developments here can have major implications for China. https://ow.ly/AerN50UJucM

China is actively seeking a route to Europe that bypasses Russia, driven by Western sanctions that obstruct trade and in...
01/19/2025

China is actively seeking a route to Europe that bypasses Russia, driven by Western sanctions that obstruct trade and instability along sea routes. Such a route would enable China to expand its exports, enhance its competitiveness and speed up delivery while increasing trade volumes.

At a time when the Chinese economy is under immense pressure, achieving these objectives is critical. https://ow.ly/bh2m50UJ9k1

Syria has been the target of countless attempts at subjugation undertaken by external powers throughout its history. Sin...
01/17/2025

Syria has been the target of countless attempts at subjugation undertaken by external powers throughout its history. Since the rise of modern-day Syria after the Second World War, the country has been beset by foreign interventions, social turmoil and political instability, all of which cast doubt over its viability as a united political entity.

AnalysisRegional DirectoryMiddle East and North Africa The Never-ending Battle for Syria Dominating the Middle East requires controlling this part of it. By Hilal Khashan - January 14, 2025 720 Syria has been the target of countless attempts at subjugation undertaken by external powers throughout it...

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Your source for what matters in the world, founded by geopolitical forecaster George Friedman, who also founded the geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor. Sign up to receive all of our in-depth analysis, including annual Forecasts, subscriber-only podcasts, and more FREE for your first month: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/30-days-content-free/?source=cta-article. While we encourage a lively debate in the comments on our page, any harassment or offensive text will not be tolerated and will result in either the comments deleted or a user ban. Please keep all communication civil.