Geopolitical Futures

08/05/2024

Germany’s Economy Tips Back Toward Recession
Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter.
The German economy faces substantial challenges that impede growth. Preliminary data from the government’s statistics agency shows a slight contraction in growth for the second quarter, while declining investment in equipment and construction heighten the strain. Falling consumption and rising inflation compound the issues, signaling the potential onset of a recession.
Berlin aims to break the economy out of its stagnation by focusing on its high-tech sector. Authorities are pushing for investment and expanding capacities in the energy sector, particularly in green energy. However, deep-rooted structural problems persist, with industries citing a shortage of skilled workers and outdated infrastructure. Germany is Europe’s largest economy, and the prospect of a German recession could significantly affect the Continent’s ability to tackle internal challenges as well as its position on the Ukrainian conflict.

08/04/2024

In , environmental advocacy groups have spearheaded large-scale protests against the reopening of a controversial mine, with even larger demonstrations to come. Reopening the mine would be a significant move, signaling the government’s slow-motion turn to the West. - Antonia Colibasanu

Thousands of protesters marched in cities throughout Serbia this week against the reopening of a controversial lithium mine that had been shuttered for

08/02/2024

Hezbollah understands the consequence of an all-out war with Israel. Hezbollah cannot win. - GPF Analyst Hilal Khashan breaks down the escalation between and , and where it goes from here. Listen to the full bonus clip here:

Will the Israel-Hamas War spread across the region? After months of Hezbollah and the IDF exchanging fire, attacks have escalated in recent weeks. Middle Eas...

07/31/2024

🌐 Ukraine will require an additional $12 billion to $15 billion in financial aid from the West to sustain the war effort throughout next year, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said. He added that the International Monetary Fund agreed with this estimate.

The war reportedly costs Ukraine 120 million euros ($130 million) each day. To plug the budget deficit, the government is exploring measures like increasing the military tax for individuals from 1.5 percent to 5 percent.

07/30/2024

Venezuela’s National Electoral Council declared Nicholas Maduro the victor in the country’s July 28 presidential elections.

The results come as little surprise given that Maduro, now entering his third term, has regularly manipulated elections in his favor. But continuity for Maduro doesn’t necessarily mean continuity for the government or Venezuela. Instead, it will amplify the government’s vulnerabilities and put the country on a path to a much more uncertain future.

07/30/2024

There was a time when China outmatched India to become the top trade and security partner for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Now is seen the world over as a viable competitor, capable of defeating the East Asian giant and leading economic growth by the end of the decade. - Victoria Herczegh

Last week, the foreign ministers of India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations met in Vientiane to discuss ways to enhance political, security

07/29/2024

Foreign Investment in 2023
FDI in developing economies dipped last year.
The 2023 data for greenfield foreign direct investment presents a mixed picture but overall one of resilience. According to the U.N. Conference of Trade and Development’s Global Investment Report, FDI flows fell by 2 percent to $1.3 trillion, and developing nations saw a 7 percent drop to $867 billion. However, developed economies saw a 9 percent increase, driven mainly by Singapore and the European Union. The qualities that attract investors to Singapore – a business-friendly environment and strategic location – are persistent, whereas Europe made gains due to its post-pandemic recovery, reshoring, and friendshoring linked to global economic restructuring and the Ukraine conflict.
Developing countries still attract over 60 percent of global FDI, and they tend to offer foreign investors more favorable terms. UNCTAD’s report said that 86 percent of investment policy measures in developing nations were investor-friendly, compared to 57 percent in developed countries, where FDI screening processes are becoming more common for national security reasons. The report also warned that protectionism and decoupling create obstacles for FDI.

07/29/2024

Foreign Investment in 2023
The 2023 data for greenfield foreign direct investment presents a mixed picture but overall one of resilience. flows fell by 2 percent to $1.3 trillion, and developing nations saw a 7 percent drop to $867 billion. However, developed economies saw a 9 percent increase, driven mainly by Singapore and the European Union. https://ow.ly/9Iz550SMmLh

07/26/2024

As Sudan’s civil war enters its 15th month, peace seems as distant as ever. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) both lack international legitimacy and have been credibly accused of committing atrocities. Millions of Sudanese civilians have fled north into Egypt or west into Chad, neither of which is well-equipped to support so many refugees. Meanwhile, what started as a war for national control has grown into a proxy conflict among Middle Eastern and Eurasian powers.

07/26/2024

Buildups of Venezuelan troops near its contested border have reinforced Caracas’ verbal warnings of a war with Guyana. For Nicolas and his re-election bid, who is behind in polls ahead of the July 28 presidential election, an international crisis could be just what he needs to extend his rule.

(click to enlarge) Guyana and Venezuela are quarreling over an old land settlement, but just because the dispute has stayed peaceful for so long and

07/25/2024

The United States has been on a crusade to reduce its and its allies’ exposure to China in the semiconductors market. China is the world’s fifth-largest producer of semiconductors. Now, the U.S. is looking to Latin America to help fill the gap in the supply chain. GPF's Allison Fedirka has this analysis:

The semiconductor business is booming. According to estimates published in 2023 by consulting firm McKinsey & Company, the semiconductor market will

07/25/2024

07/25/2024

China’s unusual maritime activity comes at a time when relations with the United States and its allies are deteriorating. Earlier this month, condemned for acting as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine by providing material support to Moscow’s military-industrial complex.

07/23/2024

🌐 Morocco reportedly officially signed a deal to purchase two spy satellites from Israel in another sign of deepening ties between the two countries following their normalization of relations in 2020. The agreement, worth a reported $1 billion, involves the satellite system currently used by the Israel Defense Forces.

07/23/2024

Buildups of Venezuelan troops near the contested eastern border have reinforced Caracas’ verbal warnings of war with Guyana. For Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, who is polling well behind Edmundo Gonzalez ahead of the July 28 presidential election, an international crisis could be just what he needs to extend his rule. https://ow.ly/9MOx50SIofG

07/22/2024

The Stakes in Venezuela and Guyana’s Dispute
The ICJ ordered Caracas not to try to change the border by force.
Guyana and Venezuela are quarreling over an old land settlement, but just because the dispute has stayed peaceful for so long and neither country is equipped for war does not mean it can’t happen. Last December, in an apparently low-turnout plebiscite, Venezuelans overwhelmingly endorsed Caracas’ territorial claim to Essequibo, the western two-thirds of Guyana which Venezuela calls Guayana Esequiba. The Hague-based International Court of Justice, at Guyana’s request, has been reviewing the 1899 Paris arbitration that affirmed Essequibo as part of Guyana. Though it disputes the ICJ’s claim to jurisdiction, Caracas submitted supporting documents in April.
Guyana has virtually no army, but it has two powerful allies, the United Kingdom and Brazil. (The latter recently acquired Israeli anti-tank missiles and launchers.) It also has had the temerity to grant production licenses to foreign energy firms interested in developing the huge oil fields discovered off the Essequibo coast in 2015. According to Caracas, those waters are Venezuelan, and so is the oil. Buildups of Venezuelan troops near the contested border have reinforced Caracas’ verbal warnings. For Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, who is polling well behind Edmundo Gonzalez ahead of the July 28 presidential election, an international crisis could be just what he needs to extend his rule.

07/22/2024

China's recent military moves in the Pacific rim plainly reflect its strategy to counter U.S. efforts to contain it. But they also reflect the pressure China feels from the most serious economic crisis it has experienced since it became a global power. - Kamran Bokhari

China recently made several unusual military moves in the broader Pacific rim. From July 10 to July 15, the Shandong carrier strike group of the People’s

07/21/2024

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07/19/2024

More than 30 years after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia is still Armenia’s largest trade partner, supplying significant volumes of gas and maintaining more than 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) of pipelines.

Despite sanctions, trade between Armenia and Russia grew by 43 percent in 2023, reaching $7.3 billion, with Russia accounting for 35.3 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade.

07/19/2024

🌐 Serbia has signed a memorandum of understanding with the European Union on development of sustainable raw materials, batteries and electric vehicles. The signing took place in Belgrade at a summit on critical raw materials attended by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

07/17/2024

Is China supplying weapons to Russia, or are NATO's accusations "groundless" as China's foreign minister alleges? The statement from the alliance comes as, for the first time, China is projecting military force outside its neighboring regions, including near NATO’s border. Antonia Colibasanu has this analysis:

NATO recently issued a statement directly accusing China for the first time of supplying weapons to Russia. The alliance urged China to withdraw “all

07/17/2024

Our latest in the Special Collection on the Middle East is out now. Turkey and Iran stand out in the Middle East for being formidable non-Arab, predominantly Muslim countries in the region. Their flanking of the Levant and shared border in the South Caucasus makes for dynamic bilateral and regional relations. Part six of the series explores the role these countries play in region dynamics with a focus on foreign policy.

Find the link to a free preview in our story.

07/16/2024

For the first time in nearly a generation, has elected a reformist who is not a cleric as president. But Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory doesn’t change the fact that the country’s political establishment is dominated by ultraconservatives, and that it was they who allowed him to run in the first place.

For the first time in nearly a generation, Iran has elected a reformist who is not a cleric as president. But Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory doesn’t change

07/15/2024

Closing the Darien Gap
Since 2010, the number and origin of migrants passing through Panama's Darien Gap have changed dramatically. These shifts reflect growing migratory pressures in countries of origin as well as the development of more sophisticated routes.

(click to enlarge) Since 2010, the number and country of origin of migrants passing through the Darien Gap have changed dramatically. According to

07/15/2024

Closing the Darien Gap
The number of crossings has soared since 2021.
Since 2010, the number and country of origin of migrants passing through the Darien Gap have changed dramatically. According to Panama’s national migration service, in the first five months of 2024, 158,747 migrants crossed the dense, treacherous land bridge between South and Central America. Nearly 102,000 were Venezuelans. Thousands also came from Ecuador, Haiti and Colombia. These shifts reflect growing migratory pressures in countries of origin as well as the development of more sophisticated routes. But they heighten tensions between countries of origin and transit and receiving countries, which often lack resources to support large numbers of migrants.

07/15/2024

07/12/2024

By all appearances, Russia is losing an ally in a part of the world where it can least afford to have enemies. Yet, Moscow has its reasons for not rushing to address Armenia’s grievances. Ekaterina Zolotova has this analysis on Moscow's wait-and-see approach:

By all appearances, Russia is losing an ally in a part of the world where it can least afford to have enemies. Armenia, the small (and shrinking) country

07/11/2024

NEW SUBSCRIBER-ONLY FEATURE
GPF’s exciting new Graphic Essay feature complements our long-form offerings and doubles down on what makes our free Weekly Graphic so popular. Subscribe today to explore more and to support unbiased geopolitical analysis. Link in bio.

07/10/2024

NEW SUBSCRIBER-ONLY FEATURE
GPF's exciting new Graphic Essay feature complements our long-form offerings and doubles down on what makes our free Weekly Graphic so popular. Subscribe today to explore more and to support unbiased geopolitical analysis:

Editor’s note: The following is the first of what we hope will be many Monthly Graphics, a visual-rich, subscriber-only essay that complements our