Geopolitical Futures

12/27/2025

How did Washington get into the business of carrying the burden of the world? The debate between the self-styled internationalists and so-called isolationists dates back to the late 1800s. - Kamran Bokhari

The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy carries far-reaching consequences for countries that, over the past eight decades, have labored to persuade

12/26/2025

US and China Find a New Intermediary in the Taiwan Strait
Their outreach to the new KMT leader signals a shift toward managing, rather than contesting, Taiwan’s political future.

Amid early signs of a thaw in the U.S.-China rivalry, both sides are reaching out to Taiwan’s political opposition. First, the American Institute in

12/25/2025

America's new National Security Strategy reflects a fundamental change in U.S. policy. It prioritizes America maintaining its preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, while avoiding military competition with China as well as European conflicts. At the same time the White House has taken pen to paper on its new policy, military pressure on Venezuela is ramping up as the Trump administration sanctions oil tankers in the region.

This week on Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss these escalations and what it all has to do with Cuba.

America's new National Security Strategy reflects a fundamental change in U.S. policy. It prioritizes America maintaining its preeminence in the Western Hemi...

12/23/2025

The U.S. National Security Strategy released earlier this month contained a couple of related priorities that have informed recent U.S. actions abroad:

12/23/2025

"There's another dimension to this." - Geopolitical context of the escalation between the US and Venezuela, from GPF Chairman George Friedman, via Bloomberg TV Insight

Insight with Haslinda Amin, a daily news program featuring in-depth, high-profile interviews and analysis to give viewers the complete picture on the stories that matter. The show features prominent leaders spanning the worlds of business, finance, politics and culture. (Source: Bloomberg)

12/22/2025

Deep Discounts for Russian Crude
Russia’s revenue on fossil fuel exports fell to its lowest level since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has sharply reduced its oil export prices, offering steep discounts on crude. Urals, the country’s flagship blend, was priced at $34.52 per barrel in Novorossiysk in December. With average production costs running between $25 and $40 per barrel, producers are operating at or near zero profit. The market outlook remains bleak. Russian firms have had to deepen discounts for Chinese buyers to move cargoes that Indian refiners now reject over sanctions risks. As markdowns widen and volumes slip under sanctions pressure and softer global demand, Russia’s fossil fuel revenue fell to 489 million euros ($573 million) per day in November, its lowest level since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The stakes for Moscow are high. Energy exports, especially oil and petroleum products, remain central to financing both social spending and the war effort, which is why the sector was an early target of Western sanctions. Although price matters, maintaining the perception of reliability and protecting market share has become just as important for the Kremlin. Deep discounts and below-market prices on other fuels still allow Russia to place significant volumes in Asia and parts of Europe despite bans and restrictions. This has helped Moscow consolidate its exports around three key destinations: coal and oil shipments to China, petroleum products to Turkey, and continued sales of liquefied natural gas and pipeline gas to the European Union, which remains its largest customer for those fuels.

12/22/2025

For the United States, hemispheric security doesn’t just call for military dominance; it calls for the absence of anti-U.S. governments. Washington believes that by removing these governments, it can deny enemies farther afield an opportunity to gain a foothold in the region. This strategy specifically targets regimes in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua – all of which have strong political and economic relationships with Russia and China.

12/19/2025

12/18/2025

Pressure is building on Ukraine and Russia to end their nearly four-year war, setting off a scramble for leverage that is unnerving some of their neighbors. One of the hottest areas of contention is the Black Sea, where escalating attacks by both sides have drawn condemnation, warnings and urgent calls for diplomacy from the Turkish government.

What Ankara fears most in this situation is an escalation spiral that leaves the Black Sea an irreversibly militarized, Russian-dominated space. - Antonia Colibasanu

Pressure is building on Ukraine and Russia to end their nearly four-year war, setting off a scramble for leverage that is unnerving some of their

12/18/2025

The hype surrounding artificial intelligence tends to elide some if its drawbacks – namely, that it consumes vast amounts of energy, and that it is therefore particularly vulnerable to shocks in energy supply and demand. The United States cannot fully capitalize on AI’s benefits if it can’t generate enough energy to fuel it.

12/16/2025

The release of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy has brought into focus a fundamental tension that has been simmering since before President Donald

12/15/2025

As tensions rise between Washington and Moscow, a new chessboard is emerging—not in Eastern Europe, but in the Caribbean.

As tensions rise between Washington and Moscow, a new chessboard is emerging—not in Eastern Europe, but in the Caribbean. From the U.S.’ war on drug cartels ...