Forecaster Landry Judd

11/23/2025

Nov 22: Snow possible Sunday?!

Yes, a light dusting, up to a tenth of an inch is possible for far western Union County early Sunday morning (36% chance).

Why?

1. Temperatures will be coldest nearest the Rockies, given higher elevation.

2. This area will be closest to the center of the low pressure system.

3. The low will track over this area during the early morning, and encounter the coldest temps of the day.

11/23/2025

November 22: Graphic below displays most likely rainfall totals for Sunday. The northwestern coverage area is the most favored for the highest totals as well as for the more widespread and consistent rainfall amounts. A large swath of a 0.25 inches to 0.40 inches is the most probable scenario in the northwest, associated with the AM activity.

The forecast is a little more uncertain for our far southern counties, in that it has the largest "spread" or differences among the models for rainfall. The most likely scenario is widespread tenths of an inch with more focused pockets of 0.20-0.30 inches of rainfall. However, the most extreme solutions show this area receiving the greatest rainfall, up to an inch.

Bottom line: The best chances are in our northwestern coverage area. Slightly lower overall chances in southern counties, but with low potential (22%) of seeing the highest totals of our region, up to an inch.

Source: National Weather Service Probabilistic Forecast Page https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=AMA

11/22/2025

Nov 22: A low-pressure disturbance, currently over the southwestern U.S. is progged to generate wide-spread showers through the daytime this Sunday.

Rain will begin in our far western counties around 7 to 8 AM, making their way eastward through the afternoon. The most likely timeframe for Amarillo and the middle Panhandle is 11 AM to Noon. Main activity exits the area around 5 to 6 PM.

No severe weather anticipated, but numerous thunderstorms poised to produce brief moderate-heavy rain, tiny hail, and gusts gusts up to 40 mph are possible.

11/15/2025

November 15, 2025: A pattern change featuring increased rainfall prospects, awaits us, starting Wednesday of next workweek. A upper level disturbance is poised to dig into the region next week from Wednesday through Friday, providing the necessary ingredients such as moisture, lift, and cold upper level air to foster widespread rain showers. The Climate Prediction Center indicates that the bulk of our region has roughly a 50-60% rain of seeing above normal precipitation amounts. However, we are still several days out from the event which casts reasonable uncertainty in location, timing, intensity and coverage of the ensuing showers.

As it appears now, the most rainfall is anticipated across our eastern counties. Nevertheless, even a small change in the track and timing of the system can drastically change the outcome.

11/15/2025

November 15, 2025: An elevated fire threat exists across our southern counties through the rest of Saturday afternoon and evening. Relatively gusty conditions, humidity values in the teens, along with an abundance of desiccated/receptive vegetation will allow fires to start and grow quickly out of control. It is therefore advisable to avoid any and all outside activities that produce open flames and sparks, especially within our southern viewing region.

To my knowledge, no wildfires are ongoing at this time. However. with favorable conditions lasting through the late evening, one or two fires is a possibility.

11/15/2025

November 15, 2025: A comfortably warm, sunny and benign Sunday afternoon is in store for the entire coverage area! High temperatures are expected to peak into the 70's with some lower 80's possible across our southern/southwestern counties tomorrow. Average high temperatures this time of year is the low 60's. Additionally, winds will be rather light, out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

10/18/2025

Saturday, October 18: A couple of vegetation fires ongoing in close proximity in far northwestern Potter County near the Moore County line. Thus far they have burned up to approximately 70 acres combined. Containment status and rate of spread information have not been provided at this time.

Blustery northerly winds will be poised to spread the fire generally southward if it continues.

10/18/2025

Saturday, October 18: Dry and blustery conditions ongoing behind the cold front today. This weather will promote at least an elevated risk for a wildfire or two through the afternoon, especially across our southern counties, with plenty of dry vegetation (fuels) and growing precipitation deficits.

The winds will begin to relax substantially late tonight, greatly reducing the wildfire threat through at least Sunday morning.

10/18/2025

Saturday, October 18: A chilly overnight and early Sunday morning is in the forecast as low temperatures dip into the 40's and 30's. Our northern counties will be the coldest with temperatures approaching or meeting the freezing level. These forecasted cold morning lows combined with some moisture in the air, has prompted the issuance of a frost advisory for the light blue highlighted counties until 9 AM CDT on Sunday.

Make sure to cover or take indoors any outside plants tonight that cannot tolerate these cold temperatures and potential frost.

10/11/2025

10/11/2025

October 11, at 6:12 PM: The "Black Burn" fire south the Palo Duro Club between Amarillo and Canyon is currently 90% contained with halted forward progress. Up to 600 acres of land have been burned in total, however, the fire has been substantially mitigated to just 39 acres. No word yet on if any homes or structures have been compromised.

10/11/2025

October 11, 2025, at 5:56 PM CDT: Getting reports of a steady grass fire near the Palo Duro Club northeast of Canyon. The fire has burned up to 600 acres and is roughly 50% contained at this time. Per recent reports the fire has been reduced to 39 acres with little forward progress. Strong wind gusts approaching 40 mph out of the southwest will support the spread and maintenance of the fire to the northeast. Additional fire starts are possible through the evening with the continuation of strong winds and low humidity.