14/01/2025
The United States has imposed sweeping regulations to control how advanced AI chips and related technologies could be exported and used overseas, including in countries with close military and trade ties, such as Singapore.
The measures, announced yesterday, are aimed at deterring China and other geopolitical rivals from accessing American technology for military and other uses. And they go far beyond existing measures.
By only allowing the free export of the most advanced chips to 18 of the US’ closest allies, such as Britain, Australia, the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the move also seeks to push the rest of the world towards a global technology ecosystem led by the US.
In the short term, some "neutral" countries such as Singapore might grudgingly follow the US AI chip controls but they risk ceding American technology leadership to new rivals.
In technology, change cycles are shorter and things are a lot less sticky, unlike, say, the permanence of the US dollar in global finance.
Just as Nvidia was nowhere near its current position as the go-to AI chipmaker (despite being a big chipmaker) two years ago, the next AI champion could rise to prominence in a short span of time to dominate the market.
If China or any other country finds the next big breakthrough in AI or, say, in another evolutionary technology like quantum technology, then the AI trade restrictions imposed by the US today would look terribly shortsighted and hard to reverse.
In the short term, some countries might grudgingly follow the US AI chip controls but they risk ceding technology leadership to new rivals.