02/09/2023
Yesterday, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, former senior minister with the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), enjoyed a thumping victory in the presidential election, with just over 70 percent of eligible votes. It was well beyond what many of his supporters expected. Even though one political analyst told Jom that they expected a 70 percent win, most others felt 60 percent would be impressive enough. Some of his fans thought he might scrape by with 40 percent.
Following the result, Tharman said: “I believe the vote for me and what I stood for is a vote of confidence in Singapore itself.”
We don’t fully agree. In this highly problematic election, many, including opposition supporters, held their noses and voted for him, grudgingly, despite his association with the PAP, and despite his hand in influencing the political and socio-economic environment of Singapore today.
The 70 percent should not be perceived as a resounding vote for the establishment. It’s more a vote for Tharman, the person. The last time Singapore’s president was elected with a majority of votes was in 1993, when Ong Teng Cheong became the first-ever elected president (previous ones were appointed by Parliament). Tharman’s fans will be hoping that he demonstrates a similar independent streak.
There is also a theory that the opposition should take comfort in Tharman’s mandate. It’s premised on the idea that traditionally risk-averse voters might now feel braver.
Given that one of the president’s core duties is holding the second key to our reserves, Singaporeans can now have confidence that there’s broad support for the person who’ll be doing that. This comes amid growing pressure, from different quarters of society, for Singapore to spend more of its reserves to address numerous short- and long-term challenges, including yawning inequalities that mean that those at the bottom struggle to get by in an expensive city; growing healthcare costs, particularly with an ageing population; and issues with lease decay and asset depreciation of public Housing Development Board flats—part of the fix to that may be a reassessment of how the reserves profit from the land bank.
The PAP has always been extremely prudent with its use of the reserves. Its fans like this, its critics don’t. Given that Tharman is a president with a strong mandate, so the theory goes, Singaporeans should feel greater comfort in voting for another party that offers a more expansive view of how the reserves can be used, not just for future generations, but the current one too.
It’s just one theory of how yesterday’s vote may be interpreted ahead of the general election (GE), which must be called by 2025. We shouldn’t attach too much significance to it.
Nevertheless, there may be an opportunity for opposition parties to offer a cohesive and thorough vision for how they intend to use the reserves differently to the PAP. There are information asymmetries that exist, including about the size of the reserves, which make a proper analysis difficult—but perhaps there are broad thrusts that can be articulated.
There are independent voters and maybe even some PAP fans who, recognising the deep socio-economic tensions in society, may be swayed—in the knowledge that Tharman, as president, will be able to easily check any profligacy.
Most analysts believe an opposition victory is a few terms away, at the earliest. But even if that strand of thought—about the reserves and Tharman—exists for voters at the next GE, then in some small way, the much maligned office of the elected president will, finally, function as designed.
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