Emergers

08/05/2024

MOTION DISPLAY: Another strong quarter confirming that MODI has turned the corner

MODI reported sales growth in Q1’24 of 31%, confirming that the strong momentum seen in H2’23 carried into 2024. Along with a 4ppt gross margin improvement this resulted in the first profitable quarter since Q2’23, with a Net Profit of SEK 2m. A significant release of working capital (SEK +3.3m) drove FCF to SEK 5.4m raising Net Cash at the end of Q1 to SEK 3.5m. These quarterly numbers compare to MODI’s market cap the day prior to the report, at SEK 12m, illustrating just how depressed the share has been. As the worst liquidity risk now seems to be behind the company, alleviating the fear of a rights issue, the share made a stunning +100% move on the report announcement, closing up 80%. With support for a fair value of SEK 1.9-2.3, we expect that the share has more to give, although some pullback due to profit-taking can be expected first.

Read the full report here:

MODI reported sales growth in Q1’24 of 31%, confirming that the strong momentum seen in H2’23 carried into 2024. Along with a 4ppt gross margin improvement this resulted in the first profitable quarter since Q2’23, with a Net Profit of SEK 2m.

25/04/2024

PROLIGHT: Important milestone amidst mixed news flow

There has been a somewhat mixed news flow from Prolight Diagnostics after the close of Q1’24. The finalization of the cartridge design to be used on the commercial platform marks an important step in product development and opens up for assay performance evaluation. Prolight has also announced a positive SEK 5.6m revision to the FY’23 result stemming from understated claim on the UK tax authority regarding R&D. Additionally, the SEK 113m write down the capitalized development costs regarding troponin testing on the analogue POC system MicroFlex, is of course noteworthy but has no impact on cash flow and means no real changes to the case we’re seeing in the company’s digital POC system Psyros.

All in all, with proof-of-performance for its proprietary digital technique for detection of high-sensitive biomarkers even in whole blood, we now expect the company to continue it’s progress with prototype development and IVDR certification towards launch in 2026. This in turn should catalyze a revaluation that better reflects the long term prospects we’re seeing, where we continue to find support for a fair value of SEK 1.1 – 1.2 per share.

Read full report here:

With proof-of-performance for its proprietary digital technique for detection of high-sensitive biomarkers even in whole blood, Prolight has taken significant steps forward in the past year.

23/02/2024

PROLIGHT: PoC troponin testing ready for next step

With proof-of-performance for its proprietary digital technique for detection of high-sensitive biomarkers even in whole blood, Prolight has taken significant steps forward in the past year. The share however, has experienced extended downwards pressure following the unit issue and subsequent compensation issue for the underwriters. Once the underwriters’ 150m shares have found their way to more sturdy investors, and the company continues to make progress with prototype development and IVDR certification towards launch in 2026, we expect the pressure to ease, and a revaluation that better reflects the long term prospects, where we find support for a fair value of SEK 1.1 – 1.2 per share.

Read the full report here: https://www.emergers.se/prolight_b2/

22/02/2024

NANEXA: Focus on dual GLP-1 opportunities and the partner projects

Apart from a write down of capitalized development related to the suspended projects NEX-18 and NEX-20, there was not much new in Nanexa AB’s full year report. Following the streamlining of its activities, stemming from the outcome of the rights issue in December 2023, Nanexa now focuses on the projects most likely to generate near-term revenue and thus reduce the need for further external financing. We now look forward to the start of Phase I with NEX-22 in H1’24, as well as the outcome of the partner project with Novo Nordisk and other advanced evaluation projects, including the recent agreement for monoclonal antibodies for a Big Pharma company. All in all, we continue to find support for a fair value of SEK 2.6-9.9 per share.

Read the full report here:

Apart from a write down of capitalized development related to the suspended projects NEX-18 and NEX-20, there was not much new in Nanexa’s full year report.

22/02/2024

GRANGEX: Starting to fuel up: GRANGEX set for busy agenda in 2024

With the SEK 74 m (estimated 61m net) proceeds from the rights issue, we now look forward to the updated feasibility study initiated in December ‘23, the final project financing and investment decision for Dannemora, with subsequent commencement of drainage of the mine. For Sydvaranger, we await the updated Feasibility study, and the separate funding which will provide a fresh data point on valuation of Sydvaranger already in Q1’24, most likely exceeding parent company GRANGEX AB(publ.) current market cap of SEK 190m. All in all, we find several triggers in the coming 12-24 months that are likely to drive a revaluation of the depressed share.

Read the full report here:

With the SEK 74 m (estimated 61m net) proceeds from the rights issue, we now look forward to the updated feasibility study initiated in December ‘23, the final project financing and investment decision for Dannemora, with subsequent commencement of drainage of the mine.

15/02/2024

AGTIRA: Solid ending to 2023 before scaleup in 2024

After several commercial contracts signed in 2023, Agtira ended the year with a strong cash position and only a few passing weaknesses in the report for Q4’23. Along with the contract with Swedish LIDL signed last month, worth some SEK 400m over 10 years, we now look forward to a scaleup in 2024. With a steep increase in cultivated area over the coming years, we expect Agtira to reach close to SEK 100m in ARR by the end of the year, with good prospects for profitability in 2025. Overall, we continue to find support for a fair value of SEK 14-16 per share.

Read the report here:

After several commercial contracts signed in 2023, Agtira ended the year with a strong cash position and only a few passing weaknesses in the report for Q4’23.

05/02/2024

CRUNCHFISH: Video interview with CEO (SWE) + Streamlining for breakthrough in 2024

Crunchfish has now announced that it intends to divest its gesture interaction business. While this means a logical and shareholder-friendly streamlining of focus on Digital Cash, it might prove difficult to achieve an attractive exit price. With the Indian market for real time offline payments beginning to crystalize following the last year’s launch of UPI Lite X, we see good chances for fresh Digital Cash commercial agreements. While the investment case remains somewhat binary, we now find support for a fair value of SEK 13-16 (15-17) per share. See also our video interview (in Swedish) with CRUNCHFISH CEO Joachim Samuelsson about the planned divestiture of Gesture Interaction and the development in India.

https://www.emergers.se/crunchfish_ov/
Crunchfish AB

Efter ett första kommersiellt avtal med IDFC First Bank under sommaren arbetar Crunchfish nu intensivt med att etablera sig på den enorma indiska marknaden. Se intervjun med vd Joachim Samuelsson, nyss hemkommen från Global Fintech Fest 2023, där han ger en uppdatering om avtalen med två av Ind...

05/02/2024

PROLIGHT DIAGNOSTICS: Single molecule biomarker POC test upcoming

Having already achieved proof-of-performance for its proprietary digital technique for detection of high-sensitive biomarkers in low concentrations by counting single molecules, Prolight’s first objective is now to pioneer the Point-of-Care (POC) troponin market. Next steps involve prototype development and IVDR certification before launch in 2026. Despite inherent uncertainties in revenue, unit and cost estimates, we forecast a partner-driven rollout to a 30% peak market pe*******on by 2034 (10m troponin tests), which together with the potential for POC-testing of biomarkers BNP and D-Dimer supports a fair value of SEK 1.1 - 1.2 per share, while other clinical areas add considerable further potential on top.

Read the full report here: https://www.emergers.se/prolight_a/
Prolight Diagnostics

Having already achieved proof-of-performance for its proprietary digital technique for detection of high-sensitive biomarkers in low concentrations, Prolight’s first objective is now to pioneer the Point-of-Care troponin market.

31/01/2024

AGTIRA: Lidl deal solid stepping stone for Agtira towards FaaS-profitability

With the fresh 10-year deal to supply Lidl from a new 10,000 sqm production facility in a FaaS-setup, Agtira is now about to get all the pieces in place for its rollout of vertical farming systems to the Swedish grocery market. Along with the partnership with real estate company NP3 Fastigheter and three new systems operational in 2024, Agtira is on pace for an ARR of SEK 97m by the end of 2024, and profitability in 2025. Encouraged by the positive news flow, we find support for a fair value of SEK 14-16 per share.

https://www.emergers.se/agtira_r24/
Agtira

With the fresh deal to supply Lidl from a new 10,000 sqm production facility in a FaaS-setup, Agtira is now about to get all the pieces in place for its rollout of vertical farming systems to the whole Swedish grocery market.

08/01/2024

GRANGEX: Anglo American deal marks crucial step in transforming GRANGEX into leader in sustainable iron ore

Hours before the Christmas weekend, GRANGEX AB(publ.) announced a Royalty and off-take agreement with Anglo American of USD 5m + 12.5m for the part-funding and development of the Sydvaranger Mine, along with a rights issue of SEK 81m. This is an important step forward for the venture into Sydvaranger, as evidenced by the 23% surge in the share price on the news. The capital injection will cover the first installment for Sydvaranger of USD 20m due on March 31st, 2024, but GRANGEX will need to raise additional capital to meet the price tag of USD 33m and the subsequent development expenses. While the case in Dannemora already offers good potential for shareholders, we await the updated Feasibility study to include Sydvaranger into our NPV, but note that the first data points from Sydvaranger indicate an even greater potential than in the previous DFS (i.e. an NPV well above USD 550m) when raising the output from blast furnace concentrate to direct reduction iron ore, and accounting for significantly higher iron ore prices. Interestingly, the separate funding of subsidiary Sydvaranger will provide a fresh data point on valuation of Sydvaranger already in Q1’24, most likely exceeding parent company GRANGEX’ current market cap of SEK 200m.

Read the full report here:

Facing delays in both financing and operational development, the current cash at SEK 43.6m means that GRANGEX must secure some short-term financing ahead of the major capital raise slated for Q4’24.

21/12/2023

NANEXA: Lining up to make Nanexa (close to) a pure GLP-1 play

Following the focusing of the roadmap after the rights issue in October, Nanexa AB has now announced a further streamlining of its activities to extend runway into mid-2025, focusing on the projects most likely to generate near-term revenue and thus reduce need for further external financing. The three focus areas will be the own project NEX-22, the partner project with Novo Nordisk and other well advanced evaluation projects. This means NEX-20 is put on hold, along with NEX-18, until the financial situation allows. While this motivates a cut in our SOTP to 2.6-9.9 (4.3-11.6) SEK per share, due to the exclusion of NEX-20, we see this tactical reprioritization as another investor-friendly move to focus efforts on the most lucrative, assets in the portfolio. All in all, we continue to see with a wide range of possible outcomes for the company’s projects, all supporting a high potential relative to the current share price.

Read the full report here: https://www.emergers.se/nanexa_t/
Nanexa AB

Following the focusing of the roadmap after the rights issue in October, Nanexa has now announced a further streamlining of its activities to extend runway into mid-2025, focusing on the projects most likely to generate near-term revenue and thus reduce need for further external financing.

14/12/2023

CRUNCHFISH: An important but expected stamp of approval from RBI

After the clarifications regarding NPCI’s UPI Lite X, RBI has now officially approved Crunchfish Digital Cash’s technology in a newly released evaluation. This news triggered a +100% surge in the share on Tuesday, underpinning the potential we are seeing in the case. While a slight pullback is only natural, we maintain our forecast and our fair value of SEK 15-17 per share.

Read the full report here: https://www.emergers.se/crunchfish_m/
Crunchfish AB

After the clarifications regarding NPCI's UPI Lite X, RBI has now officially approved Crunchfish Digital Cash’s technology in a newly released evaluation. This news triggered a +100% surge in the share on Tuesday..

04/12/2023

CRUNCHFISH: Outlook is brightening up following UPI Lite X update

While the numbers for Q3’23 came in as expected, the key takeaways from the report conference call painted a brighter picture. Following the recent release of UPI Lite X, that initially raised some questions about Crunchfish’s position, we now find some clear opportunities for Crunchfish in the expansive Indian market. With the raise of SEK 51.2m earlier in Q4, Crunchfish is now poised to scale up its collaboration with IDFC Bank, while continuing to engage with other banks and payment service providers. We keep our fair value intact of SEK 15-17 per share.

https://www.emergers.se/crunchfish_l/
Crunchfish AB

While the numbers for Q3’23 came in as expected, the key takeaways from the report conference call painted a brighter picture. Following the recent release of UPI Lite X, that initially raised some questions about Crunchfish’s position, we now find some clear opportunities for Crunchfish in the ...

01/12/2023

FREE2MOVE: Navigating challenges in Q3 for a promising 2024

The growth for Free2move AB continues, with sales in Q3 and the first nine months representing 21% and 66% YoY growth, respectively. However, due to lower gross margins, the quarter resulted in an operating loss of SEK -6.7m, despite OPEX improvements. We maintain our longer-term view on the outlook for the company, as Free2Move showcases the ability to drastically improve property energy efficiency. But for now, we have revised our full-year sales estimates for 2023 and 2024 to SEK 60m (from 70) and SEK 80m (from 90). We now find support for a new fair value range of SEK 0.19-0.24 (0.24-0.29) per share in 12-24 months.

Read the full report here: https://www.emergers.se/free2move_c/

The growth for Free2Move continues, with sales in Q3 and the first nine months representing 21% and 66% YoY growth, respectively. However, due to lower gross margins, the quarter resulted in an operating loss of SEK -6.7m, despite OPEX improvements.

30/11/2023

QLUCORE: Long term potential clouded by likely capital raise

With stable sales in H1’23/24, Qlucore has continued on the revised, more concentrated path announced in Q1, accompanied by a cost reduction plan fully effective by 2024, targeting CE-marking and sales ramp-up in 2025. While we maintain our forecast, with >100% CAGR in 2025/26-2027/28, likely to drive a revaluation of the company, the share has continued to slide, down 28% in the past three month. This has affected the hypothetical terms of a future capital raise, motivating a further adjustment of our fair value to SEK 11-16 (16-21) per share.

Read the full report here:

With BSI as Notified Body, Qlucore now expects to obtain CE certification for its Qlucore Diagnostics ALL application in February 2025.

22/11/2023

GRANGEX: Pushing ahead with dual mines in the face of double delays

Facing delays in both financing and operational development, the current cash at SEK 43.6m means that GRANGEX AB(publ.) must secure some short-term financing ahead of the major capital raise slated for Q4’24. We now look forward to the closing of the Sydvaranger acquisition before year end 2023, an updated PFS and the delayed commencement of drainage of Dannemora in Q1’24. Although financing is an increasingly pressing issue, the strong partnership with Anglo American bolsters our confidence that GRANGEX will obtain the necessary funds to unlock the valuation upside we foresee in Dannemora, and even more so in Sydvaranger, despite the delays. All while the rising iron ore prices continue to strengthen the case.

Read the full report here

Facing delays in both financing and operational development, the current cash at SEK 43.6m means that GRANGEX must secure some short-term financing ahead of the major capital raise slated for Q4’24.

21/11/2023

NANEXA: Raising our LOAs following a review of the projects

With the dust settling after the recent rights issue, Nanexa AB now progresses with its more focused roadmap, concentrating on Phase I trials with NEX-22 in Q1’24, preparation for Phase Ib trials with NEX-20, and the partner projects. With a cash position of SEK 84m, there is a financial runway through 2024, but also a higher pressure to reach a licensing agreement soon. Following a revision of the projects, we’ve increased our Likelihood of Approvals (LOA) for NEX-20 and NEX-22 to 20% and 15% respectively (up from 9.2% and 7.5%). This, coupled with a wide range of possible outcomes for the company’s projects, supports a high potential relative to the current share price. We now look forward to the Phase I trial with NEX-22 and more positive news flow from the partner projects as triggers in 2024, and expect that the worldwide GLP-1 story will start to gain traction also for the Nanexa share soon.

Read the full report here:

With the dust settling after the rights issue, Nanexa now progresses with its tighter roadmap, focusing on Phase I with NEX-22 in Q1’24, the preparation for Phase 1b with NEX-20 and the partner projects.

17/11/2023

MOTION DISPLAY: European sales growth offsetting inconsistent US market

Motion Display is sustaining its positive momentum with 193% YoY growth and improved cost control, resulting in a third consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA at SEK 0.5m. This success is primarily attributed to recent sales growth in Europe, while the US market remains shaky. Despite our optimism about the overall outlook, marked by a more stable order inflow, a higher-than-anticipated working capital has exerted pressure on the company’s cash position, necessitating attention. We maintain our forecast and continue to find support for a fair value range of SEK 1.9-2.1 per share in 12-24 months.

Read the full report here:

Motion Display is sustaining its positive momentum with 193% YoY growth and improved cost control, resulting in a third consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA at SEK 0.5m. This success is primarily attributed to recent sales growth in Europe, while the US market remains shaky.

16/11/2023

AGTIRA: New LOIs propel Agtira towards profitability

With a third quarter in line with expectations and a cash injection of SEK 70m following a rights issue, Agtira is making significant strides toward becoming THE partner for Swedish grocery food chains. Two new LOIs have been signed, marking Agtira’s entry into new territory with LIDL Sverige and ICA Maxi Hälla. While details are currently limited, 2024 is anticipated to be a pivotal year, where we expect the installation of three new systems, projecting the company’s ARR to reach SEK 97m. We maintain our forecast and fair value range of SEK 14-16 per share over the next 12-24 months.

Read the full report here:

With a third quarter in line with expectations and a cash injection of SEK 70m following a rights issue, Agtira is making significant strides toward becoming THE partner for Swedish grocery food chains.

01/11/2023

NANEXA: Outcome of rights issue forces an investor-friendly focus on core projects

With a subscription rate of 34.7% of the rights issue, and a utilization of guarantee commitments corresponding to 27.1%, Nanexa is provided with SEK 75m before costs. As previously announced, this lower outcome means that the funds will go to finance the completion of Phase 1 with NEX-22 and subsequent FDA meeting, preparation for Phase 1b with NEX-20, but no activities with NEX-18. This tighter roadmap, however, is more investor-friendly as it focuses on the core projects in the case, while the reduced runway increases the pressure on the company to reach some licensing agreement. With an exclusion of NEX-18 from our SOTP, and NEX-20 pushed into the future, we continue to see a wide range of possible outcomes for the company’s projects, all of which continue to support a high potential from today’s depressed levels.

Read the full report here:

With the recently completed Phase 1 study for NEX-20 yielding positive results, and the widespread global interest in GLP-1, Nanexa now has strong momentum behind it going into the ongoing SEK 121m rights issue.

01/11/2023

KEBNI: Mixed bag in Q3 – steep growth ahead

Despite 29% top-line growth in Q3’23, sales were a bit soft due to a slower-than-anticipated ramp-up of deliveries to Saab. This has led us to lower our FY forecast, while we still expect a significant rise in sales in Q4 and beyond. Now at a stable delivery pace of IMUs, Kebni also reports of other sales-oriented activities within SatCom and Inertial Sensing likely to boost sales in 2024. While the company remains committed to its strategic five-year plan, we have made a slight revision to our gross margin estimate, meaning that we now find support for a fair value of SEK 1.5-2.5 (1.7-2.7) per share, where the reported progress in the scaffolding joint venture, with potential commercialization in 2024, adds an extra option on top.

Read the full report here:

Our site visit to KebNi's new production facility in Karlskoga not only showed production up and running, but also how it can scale up with increased volumes.

16/10/2023

CRUNCHFISH: Videointervju med CEO Joachim Samuelsson om prospektet, nyemissionen och vägen framåt de kommande 12-24 månaderna.

Se intervjun här: https://youtu.be/NjGNlGgr0e8?si=u-VTeiw4bCwQ-Sxw
Crunchfish AB

Interview with CRUNCHFISH CEO Joachim Samuelsson (in Swedish) about the development in India, UPI Lite X and the rights issue

16/10/2023

KEBNI: Site visit provided clarity on scale-up and insight into ScaffSense venture

Our site visit to Kebni's new production facility in Karlskoga not only showed production up and running, but also how it can scale up with increased volumes. We now look forward to the numbers from the first Saab shipments in Q3 (on Oct 27, 2023), hopefully providing an indication of the pace of the ramp-up in Q4’23 and the cost outlook going forward. After the second volume order from Saab and the strengthened cash position following the recent capital raise, we see strong support for a steep ramp-up in sales in 2024-2026, which provide support for our fair value of SEK 1.7-2.7 per share. In addition, the JV scaffolding venture, offering a smart alarm system to prevent scaffolding collapses and construction halts, is now taking shape, with the first pilots in H2’23 and potential initiation of commercialization in 2024.

Read full report here:

Our site visit to KebNi's new production facility in Karlskoga not only showed production up and running, but also how it can scale up with increased volumes.

11/10/2023

NANEXA: Variable roadmap with emphasis on NEX-22 and potential Novo Nordisk deal

With the recently completed Phase 1 study for NEX-20 yielding positive results, and the widespread global interest in GLP-1, Nanexa now has strong momentum behind it going into the ongoing SEK 121m rights issue. At an investor meeting at Nanexa’s premises in Uppsala, the company presented both a clearer plan for NEX-22, with an expected start of Phase 1 in Q1’24, as well as two paths forward depending on the level of capital they manage to raise. We continue to see a wide range of different outcomes for both the company’s own and partner projects, all of which point to high potential from today’s depressed levels.

Read the report here https://www.emergers.se/nanexa_q/
Nanexa AB

With the recently completed Phase 1 study for NEX-20 yielding positive results, and the widespread global interest in GLP-1, Nanexa now has strong momentum behind it going into the ongoing SEK 121m rights issue.

04/10/2023

FREE2MOVE: High-growth niches within energy efficiency

With unpredictable energy prices and an urgent green transition, the need for energy efficiency measures has never been higher. Through its comprehensive offering, Free2Move can reduce property energy input by 50%. With two strategic acquisitions, half-year sales now at 3x current market cap, and a substantial SEK 42m order backlog, Free2Move is poised for profitable growth. Projecting sales of SEK 70m in 2023 and SEK 90m in 2024, we find support for a fair value range of SEK 0.24-0.29 per share, over the next 12-24 months.

With unpredictable energy prices and an urgent green transition, the need for energy efficiency measures has never been higher. Through its comprehensive offering, Free2Move can reduce property energy input by 50%.