10/11/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 7
Severe Tropical Storm (TORAJI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today.
“NIKA” CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AS IT NEARS TYPHOON STRENGTH.
• Location of Center (4:00 PM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm NIKA was estimated based on all available data including Daet Weather Radar at 380 km East of Infanta, Quezon (15.2°N, 125.2°E)
• Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 980 hPa
• Present Movement:
Westward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 340 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
○ Wind threat: Gale-force winds
○ Warning lead time: 24 hours
○ Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
○ Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
LUZON:
The northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler), Isabela, Quirino, the southern portion of mainland Cagayan (Solana, Iguig, Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Baggao, Alcala, Amulung, Santo Niño, Rizal, Piat, Tuao, Gattaran, Lasam), Nueva Vizcaya, the southern portion of Apayao (Kabugao, Conner, Flora, Pudtol), Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the northern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Lupao, San Jose City), the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Narvacan, Nagbukel, Cervantes, Quirino, San Emilio, Santa Maria, Burgos, San Esteban, Santiago, Lidlidda, Banayoyo, City of Candon, Galimuyod, Salcedo, Gregorio del Pilar, Sigay, Santa Lucia, Santa Cruz, Suyo, Alilem, Tagudin, Sugpon), La Union, and the northeastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Natividad, San Quintin, Sison, San Manuel, Umingan, Tayug)
TCWS No. 1
○ Wind threat: Strong winds
○ Warning lead time: 36 hours
○ Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
○ Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
The rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Apayao, Ilocos Norte, the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Aurora, Tarlac, the northern and central portions of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso), the rest of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the eastern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Famy, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan, Cavinti, Lumban, Luisiana, Santa Cruz, Magdalena, Pagsanjan, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Pila, Victoria), the eastern portion of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, General Nakar, Lucban, City of Tayabas, Lucena City) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and the northeastern portion of Albay (Malinao, Tiwi, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Rapu-Rapu)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 7 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone “NIKA”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of NIKA is Wind Signal No. 4.
Furthermore, the northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today (10 November): Batanes
• Tomorrow (11 November): Batanes, Batangas, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
• Tuesday (12 November): Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge may occur in the next 48 hours in the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 4 issued at 2:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern seaboard of Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 2 issued at 5:00 PM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora
• Up to 5.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora, the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Camarines Norte
• Up to 4.5 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes; the western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the seaboard of Ilocos Sur
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Catanduanes, mainland Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte; the seaboard of Babuyan Islands
• Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Batanes; the remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region
• Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon; the northern seaboard of Northern Samar; the remaining seaboard of Polillo Islands.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The eastern seaboards of Northern Samar.
• Up to 2.0 m: The eastern seaboards of Eastern Samar and Dinagat Islands; the seaboard of Kalayaan Islands.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• NIKA is forecast to move generally west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the track forecast, it may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow (11 November) morning or early afternoon. Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone. The tropical cyclone will then traverse the landmass of mainland Northern Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow evening. Afterwards, NIKA will continue moving west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday (12 November) afternoon.
• NIKA is forecast to reach typhoon category today and may reach its peak intensity of around 130 km/h prior to landfall. A short period of weakening is expected as NIKA traverses the landmass of Luzon due to land interaction. Re-intensification may occur over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
TC Bulletin Link: https://tinyurl.com/tcnika
Weather Advisory Link: https://tinyurl.com/wx-adv
Gale Warning Link: https://tinyurl.com/wx-gale
Storm Surge Link: https://tinyurl.com/wx-surge
TC Warning Agriculture: https://tinyurl.com/tc-warning-agri
