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The Forex BEATer, Narvacan (2024)

12/11/2024

BEAT Analysis for the Week

BROAD MARKET VIEW

S&P500 - W1 uptrend | D1 Uptrend | H4 Uptrend

AUDJPY - Weekly Uptrend | Daily Uptrend | H4 Uptrend

VIX - 14.96

Overall Market Mood - Risk On

ECONOMICS

AUD - Cash Rate STEADY | RBA Rate Statement HAWKISH | Goods Trade Balance DOWN = (BAD-1, STEADY-1, GOOD-1) = GOOD

CAD - Trade Balance UP | Employment Change DOWN | Unemployment Rate STEADY = (BAD-1, STEADY-1, GOOD-1 = GOOD

CHF - Unemployment Rate STEADY = (BAD-0, STEADY-1, GOOD-0) = STEADY

EUR - Final Manufacturing PMI UP | Final Services PMI UP | PPI m/m DOWN | Retail Sales m/m UP = (BAD-1, STEADY-0, GOOD-3) = GOOD

GBP - Final Services PMI UP | Construction PMI DOWN | Official Bank Rate DOWN | BOE Monetary Policy Report HAWKISH = (BAD-2, STEADY-0, GOOD-2) = STEADY

JPY - No major data prints

NZD - Employment Change q/q DOWN | Unemployment Rate UP = (BAD-2, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) = BAD

USD - Trade Balance DOWN | Final Services PMI DOWN | ISM Services PMI UP | Federal Funds Rate DOWN | FOMC Statement LESS HAWKISH = (BAD-3, STEADY-1, GOOD-1) = BAD

ANALYSIS OF THE EXPERTS (COT REPORT)

AUD - Net Longs 30,976 vs Previous 27,516 | Net Difference 3,460 | Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

CAD - Net Shorts -175,229 vs Previous -167,499 | Net Difference -7,730 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

CHF - Net shorts -29,981 vs Previous -33,998 | Net Difference 4,017 | Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

EUR - Net Shorts -21,653 vs Previous -50,304 | Net Difference 28,651 | Strongly Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

GBP - Net Longs 45,084 vs Previous 66,356 | Net Difference -21,272 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

JPY - Net Shorts -44,167 vs Previous -24,817 | Net Difference -19,350 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

NZD - Net Shorts -8,199 vs Previous -2,167 | Net Difference -6,032 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

USD - Net Longs 95 vs Previous 1,684 | Net Difference -1,589 | Slightly Bearish Sentiment | STEADY

PAIRS OF INTEREST

GBPAUD - Sell
AUDNZD - Buy
AUDUSD - Buy
EURGBP - Buy
EURNZD - Buy
EURUSD - Buy

RISK DISCLAIMER
Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time
Past performance is not indicative of future results
High leverage either can work against you or for you
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose

Happy trading everyone!

04/11/2024

BEAT Analysis for the Week

BROAD MARKET VIEW

S&P500 - W1 uptrend | D1 Uptrend | H4 Broken

AUDJPY - Weekly Uptrend | Daily Uptrend | H4 Uptrend

VIX - 21.87

Overall Market Mood - Since SPX500 H4 time frame is broken & VIX is above the treshold level market fear, we may have a risk off mood of the market in a short period of time. This effect is due to political events that are happening in Japan & U.S. elections. Though the overall market condition is still risk on for medium to long term for the week ahead since both SPX500 & AUDJPY are uptrend from D1 to W1.

ECONOMICS

AUD - CPI q/q DOWN | CPI y/y DOWN | Retail Sales m/m DOWN | PPI q/q DOWN = (BAD-4, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) = BAD

CAD - GDP m/m DOWN | Manufacturing PMI UP = (BAD-1, STEADY-0, GOOD-1 = STEADY

CHF - KOF Economic Barometer DOWN | CPI m/m UP | Retail Sales y/y DOWN | Manufacturing PMI STEADY = (BAD-2, STEADY-1, GOOD-1) = BAD

EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y STEADY | CPI Flash Estimate y/y UP | Unemployment Rate STEADY = (BAD-0, STEADY-2, GOOD-1) = GOOD

GBP - Final Manufacturing PMI DOWN = (BAD-1, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) = BAD

JPY - Unemployment Rate DOWN | Prelim Industrial Production m/m UP | Retail Sales y/y DOWN | BOJ Policy Rate STEADY | Monetary Policy Statement LESS DOVISH | Final Manufacturing PMI UP = (BAD-1, STEADY-2, GOOD-3) = GOOD

NZD - ANZ Business Confidence UP = (BAD-0, STEADY-0, GOOD-1) = GOOD

USD - Goods Trade Balance DOWN | Advance GDP q/q DOWN | Core PCE Price Index m/m UP | Non-Farm Employment Change DOWN | Unemployment Rate STEADY | Final Manufacturing PMI UP | ISM Manufacturing PMI DOWN = (BAD-4, STEADY-1, GOOD-2) = BAD

ANALYSIS OF THE EXPERTS (COT REPORT)

AUD - Net Longs 27,516 vs Previous 27,679 | Net Difference -163 | Slightly Bearish Sentiment | STEADY

CAD - Net Shorts -167,499 vs Previous -140,631 | Net Difference -26,868 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

CHF - Net shorts -33,998 vs Previous -32,654 | Net Difference -1,344 | Slightly Bearish Sentiment | STEADY

EUR - Net Shorts -50,304 vs Previous -28,524 | Net Difference -21,780 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

GBP - Net Longs 66,356 vs Previous 74,576 | Net Difference -8,220 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

JPY - Net Shorts -24,817 vs Previous Net Longs 12,771 | Net Difference -37,588 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

NZD - Net Shorts -2,167 vs Previous -323 | Net Difference -1,844 | Slightly Bearish Sentiment | STEADY

USD - Net Longs 1,684 vs Previous 911 | Net Difference 773 | Slightly Bullish Sentiment | STEADY

PAIR OF INTEREST

GBPNZD - Sell (Let us take advantage the weekness of GBP against a stronger NZD currency)

RISK DISCLAIMER
Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time
Past performance is not indicative of future results
High leverage either can work against you or for you
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose

Happy trading everyone!

27/10/2024

Weekly Analysis (October 28 to November 1, 2024)

BROAD MARKET VIEW

S&P500 - W1 uptrend | D1 Uptrend | H4 Uptrend

AUDJPY - Weekly Uptrend | Daily Uptrend | H4 Uptrend

Volatility Index (VIX) - 20.32

Overall Market Mood - Still RISK ON since both SPX500 & AUDJPY are uptrend from W1 to H4. However, VIX is at the treshhold level it might ignite a fear in the market sooner or later due to conflict in the Middle East. Thus, we may look for trade opportunities on RISK ON to RISK ON or RISK OFF to RISK OFF currency pairs.

ECONOMICS

AUD - Flash Manufacturing PMI DOWN | Flash Services PMI UP = (BAD-1, STEADY-0, GOOD-1) = STEADY

CAD - IPPI m/m UP | RMPI m/m DOWN | Overnight Rate DOWN | BOC Rate Statement LESS DOVISH | Core Retail Sales m/m DOWN | Retail Sales m/m DOWN = (BAD-4, STEADY-1, GOOD-1 = BAD

CHF - No major data prints = (BAD-0, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) =

EUR - Flash Manufacturing PMI UP | Flash Services PMI DOWN = (BAD-1, STEADY-0, GOOD-1) = STEADY

GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI DOWN | Flash Services PMI DOWN | GfK Consumer Confidence DOWN = (BAD-3, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) = BAD

JPY - BOJ Core CPI y/y DOWN | Flash Manufacturing PMI DOWN = (BAD-2, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) = BAD

NZD- Trade Balance UP | = (BAD-0, STEADY-0, GOOD-1) = GOOD

USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI UP | Flash Services PMI UP | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m DOWN | Durable Goods Orders m/m STEADY = (BAD-1, STEADY-1, GOOD-2) = GOOD

ANALYSIS OF THE EXPERTS (COT REPORT)

AUD - Net Longs 27,679 vs Previous 19,269 | Net Difference 8,410 | Strongly Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

CAD - Net Shorts -140,631 vs Previous -122,393 | Net Difference -18,238 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

CHF - Net shorts -32,654 vs Previous -26,161 | Net Difference -6,493 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

EUR - Net Shorts -28,524 vs Previous Net Longs 17,150 | Net Difference -45,674 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

GBP - Net Longs 74,576 vs Previous 85,802 | Net Difference -11,226 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

JPY - Net Longs 12,771 vs Previous 34,110 | Net Difference -21,339 | Strongly Bearish Sentiment | BAD

NZD - Net Shorts -323 vs Previous -292 | Net Difference -31 | Slightly Bearish Sentiment | STEADY

USD - Net Longs 911 vs Previous Net Shorts -2,100 | Net Difference 3,011 | Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

PAIRS OF INTEREST
USDJPY - Buy
GBPNZD - Sell
NZDCAD - Buy
EURNZD - Sell
AUDCAD - Buy
EURAUD - Sell
GBPAUD - Sell

RISK DISCLAIMER
Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time
Past performance is not indicative of future results
High leverage either can work against you or for you
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose

Happy trading everyone!

28/09/2024

Good morning ka-BE**ers, I'm back!

BEAT Analysis for the Week (September. 23-27 | September 30-October 4, 2024)

BROAD MARKET VIEW

S&P500 - W1 uptrend | D1 Uptrend | H4 Uptrend

AUDJPY - Weekly Broken | Daily Broken | H4 Downtrend

VIX - 16.95

Overall Market Mood - Mixed

ECONOMICS

AUD: Flash Manufacturing PMI - DOWN | Flash Services PMI - DOWN | Cash Rate - STEADY | RBA Rate Statement - LESS HAWKISH | CPI y/y - DOWN = (BAD-3, STEADY-2, GOOD-0) = BAD

CAD: GDP m/m - UP = (BAD-0, STEADY-0, GOOD-1) = GOOD

CHF: SNB Policy Rate - DOWN = (BAD-1, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) = BAD

EUR: Flash Manufacturing PMI - DOWN | Flash Services PMI - DOWN = (BAD-2, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) = BAD

GBP: Flash Manufacturing PMI - DOWN | Flash Services PMI - DOWN = (BAD-2, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) = BAD

JPY: Flash Manufacturing PMI - DOWN | BOJ Core CPI y/y - STEADY = (BAD-1, STEADY-1, GOOD-0) = BAD

NZD: Trade Balance - DOWN = (BAD-1, STEADY-0, GOOD-0) = BAD

USD: Flash Manufacturing PMI - DOWN | Flash Services PMI - DOWN | Final GDP q/q - STEADY | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m - UP | Durable Goods Orders m/m - DOWN | Core PCE Price Index m/m - DOWN = (BAD-4, STEADY-1, GOOD-1) = BAD

ANALYSIS OF THE EXPERTS (COT)

AUD: Net Shorts -11,248 vs Previous -40,122 | Net Difference 28,874 | Strongly Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

CAD: Net Shorts -65,589 vs Previous -73,150 | Net Difference 7,561 | Strongly Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

CHF: Net shorts -19,290 vs Previous -17,108 | Net Difference 4,196 | Bearish Sentiment | BAD

EUR: Net Longs 71,698 vs Previous 69,646 | Net Difference 2,052 | Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

GBP: Net Longs 86,992 vs Previous 62,979 | Net Difference 24,013 | Strongly Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

JPY: Net Longs 66,011 vs Previous 56,840 | Net Difference 9,171 | Strongly Bullish Sentiment | GOOD

NZD: Net Shorts -1,458 vs Previous -1,890 | Net Difference 432 | Slightly Bullish Sentiment | STEADY

USD: Net Longs 959 vs Previous 1,798 | Net Difference -859 | Slightly Bearish Sentiment | STEADY

Since the overall market condition is mixed as seen on the Broad Market View, we can look for trade opportunities to risk on to risk on or risk off to risk off currency pairs.

PAIRS OF INTEREST:

NZDCAD - Sell
USDJPY - Sell

RISK DISCLAIMER

Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal.
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors.
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High leverage either can work against you or for you.
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

Happy trading everyone!

05/12/2023

BEAT Analysis for the Week (December 4 - 8, 2023)

See the googlesheet link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gYSb7wkaoYYdntJdhMtGsinOwoat01QdYtzpSbFdSwg/edit =459542967

RISK DISCLAIMER
Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time
Past performance is not indicative of future results
High leverage that can work against you or for you
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose

Happy trading everyone!

XM Broker Register here: https://clicks.pipaffiliates.com/c?c=748635&l=en&p=1

28/11/2023

Habang wala pa ang COT report, magiging isang puro TEKNIKAL trader muna tayo by using MATE Formula + 5 waves pattern.

RISK DISCLAIMER
Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time
Past performance is not indicative of future results
High leverage that can work against you or for you
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose

Happy trading everyone!

XM Broker Register here: https://clicks.pipaffiliates.com/c?c=748635&l=en&p=1

24/11/2023

Good morning ka-BEAters!!

BLACK FRIDAY SALE NA!!

Pwede na kayo mag-enroll by clicking the following links below:

TMT Basic Promo: https://thethirtyminutetrader.com/black-friday-sale-1?fbclid=IwAR2qd9O257QT6r6zZzXIhfTJ6SbvMLxqYZQtYvrshWMdlb7USLHwtdAXNYs

TAT BOGO Sale: https://thethirtyminutetrader.com/bogo-tat-payment-guide59633258?fbclid=IwAR1DgxYxvDFs7EnrnWvYet2JVlpC6dMvtRaYIcQsnxafnpRrp6bcKoX3UN8

Syempre hindi pa dyan nagtatapos!

Para sa mga mag-aavail ng TAT under my referral ay included sa aming FB group ni coach Amir Like Raciles (The Ilocano Trader) "The Ilocano Forex BE**ers Inner Circle" where in may mga live sessions kami about Fundamentals and Sentiment at kung paano namin ginagamit sa aming personal trading.

Just send the following details para mapasali sa Inner Circle:
1. Screen shot of your payment
2. Name
3. Email Add
4. Name of your BOGO partner
5. Facebook Profile Link

Note: Yung name at email add na isesend sa akin ay dapat yun ang ginamit ninyo during registration. Lastly, dapat dalawa kayo ng BOGO partner mo ang magsesend ng details para dalawa kayo na makasali sa Inner Circle.

Sa mga mag-aavail ng TMT Basic Course promo, you can still send the first 3 details to me. However, only those who will avail the TAT BOGO promo will be included in the Inner Circle.

Have a great day ka-BE**ers!

20/11/2023

Good Day ka-BE**ers!

Black Friday Sale natin sa TMT. See the mechanics on the photos below.

If you enroll The Advanced Trader (TAT) Program, meaning makakasama ka FB Group namin ni coach Amir Like Raciles "The Ilocano Forex BE**ers Inner Circle under MY REFERRAL ONLY. Ano ang meron sa The Ilocano Forex BE**ers Inner Circle? I and coach Amir will share our knowledge and experiences from our trading careers that may help your learning curve thoughout your TAT journey. So, grab the chance kasi hindi na ito kasali if ever na magkakaroon pa ng TAT promo ang TMT in the future.

Enrollment link will follow or just DM me.

20/11/2023

BEAT Framework Analysis for the Week (November 20 - 24, 2023)

Click the link to see my the analysis in my journal: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gYSb7wkaoYYdntJdhMtGsinOwoat01QdYtzpSbFdSwg/edit =21878338

RISK DISCLAIMER
Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time
Past performance is not indicative of future results
High leverage that can work against you or for you
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose

Happy trading everyone!

XM Broker Register here: https://clicks.pipaffiliates.com/c?c=748635&l=en&p=1

05/11/2023

Good day ka-BE**er!

BEAT Framework for the Week (Nov. 6 - 10, 2023)

Kindly see the analysis on my TAT trading journal to this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gYSb7wkaoYYdntJdhMtGsinOwoat01QdYtzpSbFdSwg/edit =1786473929

RISK DISCLAIMER
Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time
Past performance is not indicative of future results
High leverage that can work against you or for you
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose

Happy trading everyone!

XM Broker Register here: https://clicks.pipaffiliates.com/c?c=748635&l=en&p=1

01/11/2023

Walang unda undas kapag trading ang usapan!

Meeting de abanse with The Ilocano Trader.

25/10/2023

Team work makes the dream work!

Collab with The Ilocano Trader no other than coach Amir Like Raciles. More meetings to come.

23/10/2023

BEAT Analysis for the Week (October 23 - October 27 , 2023)

My TAT Journal link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gYSb7wkaoYYdntJdhMtGsinOwoat01QdYtzpSbFdSwg/edit =967210125

RISK DISCLAIMER
Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time
Past performance is not indicative of future results
High leverage that can work against you or for you
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose

Happy trading everyone!

XM Broker Register here: https://clicks.pipaffiliates.com/c?c=748635&l=en&p=1

16/10/2023

Good day ka-BE**er!

Here is our BEAT Analysis for the Week (October 16 - October 20, 2023)

Click the google sheet link of my TAT trading journal to view the analysis: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gYSb7wkaoYYdntJdhMtGsinOwoat01QdYtzpSbFdSwg/edit =2102383054

RISK DISCLAIMER
Use my analysis as a guide, not as a signal
High level of risk, not suitable for all investors
My strategies won’t work 100% of the time
Past performance is not indicative of future results
High leverage that can work against you or for you
Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose

Happy trading everyone!

XM Broker Register here: https://clicks.pipaffiliates.com/c?c=748635&l=en&p=1

14/10/2023

Will Powell join fellow fed members in endorsing a less hawkish stance?

14/10/2023

Gumuguhit ang missiles at rockets sa digmaan ng Hamas at Israel.

13/10/2023

Back in the day, Stallone was a struggling actor in every definition. At some point, he got so broke that he stole his wife’s jewelry and sold it. Things got so bad that he even ended up homeless. Yes, he slept at the New York bus station for 3 days. Unable to pay rent or afford food. His lowest point came when he tried to sell his dog at the liquor store to any stranger. He didn’t have money to feed the dog anymore. He sold it at $25 only. He says he walked away crying.

Two weeks later, he saw a boxing match between Mohammed Ali and Chuck Wepner and that match gave him the inspiration to write the script for the famous movie, ROCKY. He wrote the script for 20 hours! He tried to sell it and got an offer for $125,000 for the script. But he had just ONE REQUEST. He wanted to STAR in the movie. He wanted to be the MAIN ACTOR, Rocky himself. But the studio said NO. They wanted a REAL STAR.

They said he “Looked funny and talked funny”. He left with his script. A few weeks later, the studio offered him $250,000 for the script. He refused. They even offered $350,000. He still refused. They wanted his movie, but NOT him. He said NO. He had to be IN THAT MOVIE.

After a while, the studio agreed, gave him $35,000 for the script and let him star in it! The rest is history! The movie won Best Picture, Best Directing and Best Film Editing at the prestigious Oscar Awards. He was even nominated for BEST ACTOR! The Movie ROCKY was even inducted into the American National Film Registry as one of the greatest movies ever!

NO ONE KNOWS WHAT YOU ARE CAPABLE OF EXCEPT YOURSELF! People will judge you by HOW you look. And by WHAT you have. But Fight on! Fight for Your place in history. Fight for your glory. NEVER EVER GIVE UP!

Even if it means selling all your clothes and sleeping with the dogs, IT’S OKAY! But AS LONG AS YOU ARE STILL ALIVE, Your STORY IS NOT OVER.

Keep Up the Fight. Keep your dreams and hope alive. Go get it !!!

Source: BelowZeroToHero and actors.co.ke
Compiled: Motivational Stories

12/10/2023

Nice meeting you coach Amir!

The Forex BEATer

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