14/11/2024
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TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 2
Severe Tropical Storm (MAN-YI)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 15 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
βPEPITOβ FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND IS NEARING TYPHOON CATEGORY.
β’ Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm PEPITO was estimated based on all available data at 795 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.4Β°N, 133.0Β°E).
β’ Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 980 hPa
β’ Present Movement:
Westward at 25 km/h
β’ Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 380 km from the center
TCWS No.1
β’ Wind threat: Strong winds
β’ Warning lead time: 36 hours
β’ Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
β’ Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Camarines Norte (Vinzons, Talisay, Daet, Mercedes, Basud), the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Garchitorena, Presentacion, San Jose, Lagonoy, Tinambac, Goa, Siruma, Tigaon, SagΓ±ay, Calabanga, Naga City, Magarao, Bombon, Pili, Ocampo, Iriga City, Buhi), the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Bacacay, Legazpi City, Malinao, Manito, Tiwi), and the eastern and southern portions of Sorsogon (Juban, City of Sorsogon, Barcelona, Bulusan, Magallanes, Gubat, Santa Magdalena, Casiguran, Bulan, Irosin, Matnog, Prieto Diaz, Castilla)
VISAYAS:
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad, Maslog, Oras, Dolores, Can-Avid), and the northeastern portion of Samar (Matuguinao, San Jose de Buan)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
β Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Severe Tropical Storm PEPITO is currently not directly affecting any part of the country. However, a Weather Advisory No. 36 was issued at 5 AM today in anticipation of the heavy rainfall caused by PEPITO, apart from those caused by OFEL.
β Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
β’ Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of PEPITO is Wind Signal No. 5.
β Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching 2.0 to 3.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Samar. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 1 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Currently, there is no gale warning raised associated with PEPITO. However, a Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon due to the occurrence of OFEL. Refer to Gale Warning No. 6 issued at 5:00 AM today for more details.
β 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
β’ Up to 5.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands
β’ Up to 4.5 m: The northern seaboards of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan
β’ Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
β’ Up to 4.0 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; the seaboard of Isabela
β’ Up to 3.5 m: The eastern seaboards of Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental
β’ Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
β’ Up to 2.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; the northern seaboard of Northern Samar
β’ Up to 2.0 m: The western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the seaboards of Aurora and Camarines Norte; the eastern seaboard of Quezon including Polillo Islands; the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the remaining seaboard of Catanduanes
β’ Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
β’ Due to the high pressure area over the south of Japan, PEPITO is forecast to move westward over the next 12 hours before turning west northwestward to northwestward over the Philippine Sea. On the track forecast, PEPITO may make landfall over the eastern coast of Central and/or Southern Luzon during the weekend. This tropical cyclone may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Monday (18 November) afternoon or evening. Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone. It must also be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone. Therefore, the landfall point may also shift within the range of the forecast confidence cone from the eastern coast of eastern coast of Eastern Visayas to the eastern coast of Central Luzon.
β’ PEPITO is forecast to intensify into a typhoon within the next 12 hours and it may reach super typhoon category by tomorrow (16 November) evening and may possibly make landfall at peak intensity. It will continue to bring violent conditions over the coastal areas of Southern Luzon and Central Luzon until Sunday (17 November) prior to a second landfall over the eastern section of Central or Southern Luzon. A weakening trend is expected from Sunday onwards as PEPITO traverses mainland Luzon until it exits the PAR region.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
