21/10/2024
Tropical Depression
Issued at 11:00 AM, 21 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
“KRISTINE” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Location of Center (10:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Depression KRISTINE was estimated based on all available data at 870 km East of Eastern Visayas (13.2°N, 132.6°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa
Present Movement:
West southwestward at 30 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong winds extend outwards up to 550 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1 Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
Catanduanes, Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Camarines Norte, and the eastern portion of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres)
Visayas
Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, and Southern Leyte
Mindanao
Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte including Siargao - Bucas Grande Group
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 3 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone “KRISTINE”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of KRISTINE is Wind Signal No. 4.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE and the Northeasterly Windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today (21 October): Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, the southern portion of Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, BARMM, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental
• Tomorrow (22 October): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Palawan, Romblon, Aklan, Antique, Negros Island Region, the northern portion of Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
• Wednesday (23 October): MIMAROPA, Visayas, and Mindanao.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
• Moderate to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Northern Samar, and the eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes, the remaining seaboard of Cagayan, the eastern seaboard of Quezon, the remaining eastern seaboard of Bicol Region, and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar.
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Region, the seaboard of Dinagat Islands, and the seaboard of Davao Region.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
• Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of the country.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
The hoisting of a Gale Warning is also expected.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• KRISTINE is forecast to move generally westward until tomorrow (22 October) morning before turning northwestward to west northwestward from tomorrow afternoon until the rest of the forecast period. This tropical cyclone is forecast to make landfall over Northern Luzon by Friday (25 October).
• KRISTINE is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm in the next 12 hours. It may reach severe tropical storm category by Wednesday (23 October) and typhoon category by Thursday (24 October) evening or Friday (25 October) morning, prior to landfall over the northeastern portion of Cagayan.
• Since this tropical cyclone is still over the Philippine Sea, further intensification is likely, given the favorable environmental conditions (high SST and low wind shear) for development over the area. Changes in forecast track is also not ruled out, depending on the movement of the weather systems over the mid-latitude over the next days.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
