Northwest Pacific Hurricane Information Service

11/04/2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANG

Earlier morning, the Philippine weather bureau PAGASA upgraded invest to a tropical depression, earning the domestic name .

Based on the latest 11 AM (03:00 UTC) bulletin released by PAGASA, the center of Amang was estimated t 270 km East of , (13.6°N, 126.7°E). Intensity estimations show maximum sustained winds of 55km/h and gustiness of up to 70km/h, with a central pressure of 1004hPa. It currently moves westward at a speed of 30km/h.

Currently, several provinces are under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal ( ) #1:

•
Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Albay, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Quezon (Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco, Calauag,
Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Guinayangan, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, General Nakar, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, Tagkawayan, Pagbilao, City of Tayabas) including Pollilo Islands, Marinduque, and Masbate, including Ticao Island, Burias Island

•
Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar and Biliran

Currently, the weather bureau doesn't expect Amang to intensify further to a tropical storm throughout the forecast period. It is expected to weaken by late Thursday and early Friday. The next bulletin from PAGASA will be released later 5 PM local time (09:00 UTC).

10/04/2023

Significant Tropical Weather Advisory | ABPW10 (90W)
Issued on April 10, 2023, 06:00 UTC

The area of convection (Invest ) previously located near 10.6N 134.6E is now located near 10.0N 131.2E, approximately 872 kilometers east-southeast of , . Satellite imagery and ATMS microwave image show a broad low-level circulation (LLC) with disorganized convection and a mid-level spinner offset to the north of the LLC. The radar shows an elongated circulation adjacent to 35-45 km/h (20-25 knots) northeasterly surge flow. Analysis shows marginal conditions for development with moderate poleward outflow aloft and warm (29-30°C) sea surface temperatures, offset by moderate to high (20-25 knots) wind shear.

Forecast models are in agreement that will gradually develop as it continues to track west-northwestward over the next 2 days. Surface winds are around 35-45 km/h (20-24 knots).

Information from Joint Typhoon Warning Center ( ) via https://zoom.earth/

10/04/2023

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center ( ) just issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert ( ) to invest . This signifies the likelihood of tropical formation within the following 12 to 24 hours. According to 8 AM (12 AM UTC) information from JTWC, its location is near 10.6N, 134.6E. With a maximum sustained of winds from 20 to 24 knots, its movement is north-northwestward at a speed of 11 knots.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9023web.txt

03/11/2022

Typhoon (Severe Tropical Storm in the ) roughly devastated the country, now having total estimated damage of ₱5,292,526,630.64 ($90,239,156.23 2022 USD), with casualties now at 150 (94 confirmed, 56 for validation).

Out of the total estimated damage, the infrastructure sector has more damage with an estimated value of ₱2,833,910,844.5 ($48,291,031.03 2022 USD), followed by the agriculture sector with damage of ₱2,441,329,786.14 ($41,601,284.91 2022 USD).

received most of the agriculture damage (₱443M) and in infrastructure (₱1.1B).

*Based on NDRRMC's latest Situational Report, released today morning November 3 2022

27/10/2022

continues to consolidate, now having a convection burst in its center signaling a potential rapid intensification. Paeng is expected to further consolidate and organize throughout the night and may reach or even category by morning.

Based on the latest bulletin released by , it currently has packing winds of 65kph and gusts of up to 85kph. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) number one (1) is hoisted to several provinces in and in the , strong winds are expected to be experienced in these provinces in the next 36 hours.

27/10/2022

Paeng, now a tropical storm to and ( ) as it continues to consolidate while moving west-southwest, currently has winds of 35 knots and a minimum pressure of 998 hPa. is expected to further intensify to Severe Tropical Storm (STS) tonight or tomorrow morning as it moves closer to , bringing moderate winds and high precipitation.

Latest ECMWF forecast shows it making landfall over the region by Saturday morning, traversing back to the waters of province before making another landfall on Polillo Islands. As with other forecasts, this is still expected to change. It is advised for the people of these regions to be prepared for its potential impacts.

ECMWF 2km Base Reflectivity from Meteologix

11/10/2022

NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL OUTLOOK
October 11 2022 06:00 UTC

• Active Disturbances
- Invest (Medium)
- Invest ( ) (TCFA)

• Invest 97W
97W has now medium chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the coming days. Currently located 14.8N 142.2E (approx. 143 nautical miles west-northwest of Guam), it has winds of 20 knots and a minimum pressure of 1003mb. Global models on a slow north-northwestward track with the intensity guidance showing gradual development in the next 2 to 3 days. Due to the close proximity of the system to Guam, light to moderate rainfall is expected. For more local information, refer to https://www.weather.gov/gum

• Invest 98W (MaymayPH)
The Philippine agency Dost_pagasa upgraded 98W to a Tropical Depression earlier this morning, giving it the local name 'Maymay', followed by a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) issued by JTWC earlier at 5:30AM UTC (refer to https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html for more information). As per JTWC's 06Z fix, the system is located at 16.3N 124.8E (approx. 331 nautical miles north-northeast of Manila, with winds of 20 knots.

expects 98W to move west-southwestward slowly towards , and possibly make landfall in the vicinity of or Northern province tomorrow afternoon or evening while remaining a TD. More local information can be obtained on their website https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin

10/10/2022

Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity Outlook
Issued at 06:00 UTC October 10 2022

• ACTIVE DISTURBANCES
- Invest (LOW)
- Invest (MEDIUM)

• Invest 97W
An area of convection (INVEST 97W) has persisted near 13.3N 143.4E, approximately 75 nautical miles west of Guam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts low-level cloud lines wrapping into a broad low-level circulation (LLC). A 100401Z AMSR2 89Ghz microwave image indicates limited, fragmented banding over the southern periphery with a disorganized, poorly-defined LLC. However, a 100041Z ASCAT-B image shows an elongated, defined circulation with 20-25 knot easterly flow over the northern periphery, 20-25 knot south-southwesterly flow over the southern quadrant, and 5-10 knot winds elsewhere. Additionally, surface observations from PGUM indicate southerly winds at 8 knots, SLP near 1005.4mb and a noteworthy 24- hour SLP decrease of 2.1mb. Upper-level analysis indicates a marginally-favorable environment with good equatorward outflow offset by low to moderate (15 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures are very conducive at 30-31C. Global models indicate steady development over the next two days as the system tracks slowly northward to north-northwestward. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 18 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

• Invest 98W
The area of convection (INVEST 98W) previously located near 15.9N 132.1E is now located near 16.9N 125.9E, approximately 320 nautical miles east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and 100133Z ASCAT-C pass depict improving consolidation as indicated by a low-level circulation, flaring convection in the northwestern quadrant, and 20-25kt easterly convergent flow over the northern semicircle. Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for intensification as depicted by strong poleward outflow, low to moderate (15-20kt) vertical wind shear, and warm (29-30C) sea surface temperatures. Numerical models indicate a westward track with steady development in the Philippine Sea and greater intensification in the South China Sea. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

Information based on JTWC's Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisory (ABPW)

09/10/2022

Northwest Pacific Current Outlook
Issued at October 6 2022 06:00 UTC

• Current Disturbances/TCs
- 97W (Investigative Area)
- 98W (Investigative Area) (LOW)

A. INVEST 98W
An area of convection (INVEST 98W) has persisted near 15.9N 132.1E, approximately 645 nautical miles east of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and 090448Z ATMS 88.2Ghz pass depict a broad low-level circulation with a poorly defined center, with persistent intense convection forming along the northern flank due to strong easterly convergence. Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for intensification as depicted by strong poleward outflow, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm (29-30C) sea surface temperatures. Numerical models indicate a westward track with slow development in the Philippine Sea and greater intensification in the South China Sea. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. The minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

Information from JTWC

25/09/2022

25/09/2022

25/09/2022

BE ALERT AND PREPARED FOR STORM KARDING!

Super Typhoon ( ) is currently ravaging the Polillo Islands area in Quezon Province and is threatening to make landfall there. It is expected to make landfall in the northern portion of Quezon Province this evening and cross Central Luzon, before returning to the waters of the West Philippine Sea tomorrow September 26 at dawn.

TCWS #5 is currently up over the entire Polillo Islands, the northern portion of Quezon Province, the southern portion of Aurora, Bulacan, and its adjacent areas in Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Rizal. The rest of Central Luzon and the island of Calaguas in Camarines Norte are under TCWS #4. For more information on areas covered by TCWS, see the new Dost_pagasa bulletin.

Due to the threat of typhoon Karding, it is crucial to be prepared for the danger it brings and the possible evacuation. Practice being prepared and alert anytime in the midst of a storm. Check out the Office of Civil Defense's infographic below on what to do before, during, and after a typhoon hits. Also prepare an emergency 'go bag' in case you have to evacuate, see the second infographic for information on what to put in the 'go bag' and what to do.

*These infographics are from Civil Defense PH

24/09/2022

Typhoon ( ) continues to intensify rapidly and is now having winds of up to 130km/h and gusting up to 160km/h, with a minimum pressure of 975hPa. It is west-southwestward at speed of 15km/h.
TCWS #3 is raised in the Polillo Islands and the northern portion of Camarines Norte (Vinzons, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga), conditions are expected to worsen in these areas within the next 18 hours. Most of Central and South Luzon are under TCWS #1 while nearby provinces are under TCWS #1. (See PAGASA bulletin for detailed information).
Karding is expected to further intensify and may reach winds of 150km/h before making a landfall near the Aurora-Quezon boundary. Karding will emerge in the West Philippine Sea after traversing Central Luzon by September 26 morning. During this time, people in Central Luzon will experience intense winds accompanied by heavy to intense rains, floods is highly possible to low-lying areas and prone areas.
People are advised to take early shelter and cancel any planned trips. Keep monitoring for updates and be prepared to evacuate when needed.
The next PAGASA bulletin will be released by 2AM.