05/08/2023
Why should Nigeria bother about the developments in Niger Republic?
It's no longer news that a coup d'état occurred in Niger Republic on 26 July 2023 and that the ECOWAS decided to intervene including using military force if necessary. I have argued previously that even though military intervention has the potential to restore constitutional order in Niger Republic, it comes with lots of risks and consequences. I therefore opined that military intervention should be on the table but should be used as a last resort.
I equally mentioned in my previous write up that Nigeria would be worst hit in the event the situation in Niger degenerates, particularly as a result of military intervention. Notwithstanding the likelihood of such repercussions to Nigeria, the country cannot fold hands and watch the events in Niger going beyond control. I therefore want to discuss why I believe Nigeria should bother about the political developments in Niger Republic.
Nigeria needs to bother about developments in Niger Republic because of some strategic interests. I will try to enumerate some of these interests and you are free to add any other interests i might have omitted. Some of the strategic interests Nigeria has in Niger Republic that should make the country act on the current developments in Niger include the following:
1. Security: Nigeria has been battling an insurgency in its northeastern region for years, primarily from the Islamist militant group Boko Haram and its offshoot, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). These groups often operate across borders in the Lake Chad Basin region, which includes parts of Niger. Therefore, Nigeria has a strategic interest in ensuring that Niger is stable and capable of combating these groups to prevent them from using the country as a base for launching attacks.
2. Economic Interests: Nigeria and Niger have numerous economic ties. Niger has significant reserves of uranium, which Nigeria could potentially use for power generation. In addition, the two countries have been discussing a pipeline project that would transport crude oil from Niger to a Nigerian refinery.
3. Regional Integration: Nigeria, as the largest economy in Africa, has an interest in promoting regional integration and cooperation in West Africa. This includes strengthening ties with neighboring countries like Niger. Integration can facilitate trade, improve infrastructure, and promote economic growth.
4. Humanitarian Interests: Due to conflicts and climate change, the Sahel region, including Niger, has experienced significant displacement of people. Nigeria, due to its resources and capacity, often plays a significant role in regional humanitarian efforts. This includes providing aid and support for displaced persons, refugees, and other vulnerable populations. Any instability in Niger could worsen the humanitarian crises.
5. Counterterrorism: Nigeria has a vested interest in Niger's stability due to the presence of various terrorist groups in the region. Cooperation with Niger and other Sahel nations is crucial in curbing the activities of these groups.
6. Climate Change: The Sahel region, which includes both Niger and Nigeria, is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Nigeria has a strategic interest in cooperating with Niger and other countries in the region to mitigate these effects and adapt to changing conditions.
In view of the aforementioned interests, Nigeria should not standby and watch Niger Republic go into chaos. It is true that the government has taken a stand to do everything possible to restore constitutional order in Niger, there's still need for a comprehensive strategy planning session where ends, means and ways are fashioned out to achieve the government's objectives in Niger. I expect that there's a think-tank in place that should be doing this on behalf of the government. This becomes more important when the issue of military intervention is on the table. As i have said previously, launching a military intervention without adequate planning, especially against an immediate neighbour who shares many ties, could be catastrophic. It must really worth the effort before such intervention is conducted.
