29/08/2023
The truth about the 39 seats that declared candidates on, and how is actually presenting a few facts wrong. In the show uploaded on Saturday, 26 August, (the link is added below)
Hemendra and others got it alltogether wrong.
youtu.be/jesrwix-Cuc?si…
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1) The reduction in BJP"s vote share was 4% in 2018 as compared to 2013 and not 6-7% as Hemendra was stating.
2) No party got the clear mandate in 2018 as both had near equal seats and vote share, but yes as the Congress proved it's majority and had the chance to run the government, so be it. What happened afterwards can be debated, but still trying to bank upon the sympathy generating factor of stealing the mandate will not work. In fact it makes Congress more like a cry baby. Elections are now round the corner. Go for it.
3) The 39 seats are not the gone case for BJP. Look the statistics:
a) Out of 39, 28 seats were won by BJP in 2013. And yes they lost all in 2018 does not means that they are lost in this election too. BJP does not think like this. They would like probably half to win this time and that is the strategy. They have chosen 39 seats and named candidates on them. They have not chosen 39 candidates as they are the low hanging fruits for the Congress to gobble up.
b) In the last 4 elections of the past 2 decades, these seats saw around 150 elections and BJP won nearly 70 times while Congress winning the same number of times. So much for the low hanging fruits.
c) In 2013 the winning margins for these seats for BJP was more than 13000 votes which was more than aggregate winning margin of the Congress in that election.
4) There is no Shivraj BJP or Maharaj BJP or anything else. This is a more poetic way used by those on the show to sound witty or humorous. Actually there is One BJP and it is lead by none other than Amit Shah and everybody seems working for the win. Make no mistakes. To beat them, 2 ways are left. Either let the state electorate decide as somebody on the show even said that this is the election between the public and the BJP.
So if Congress is just there as a laabharthi. No not true. They have a chance and it should not be spoiled. With Kamal Nath at helms, this could be their golden chance, but they have to work on it as BJP seems to be working. They have to put a show which makes BJP go on defensive and everybody is waiting.
This will be the most bipolar election in recent times. Those who are angry with BJP will vote for Congress, and the one going against Congress will vote for BJP. a few will sit out. The credit for making this bipolar goes to Kamal Nath as no other leader will be able to do such a thing.
This election will have the highest turnout ratio, curtesy the efforts of ECI and evn BJP, as the benefits of such a thing will be reaped by BJP.
The party with best strategy and mathematics will be the winner. The caste mathematics is now known and both parties have to pay subservience to it but much else is required in terms of calculation such as the total number of addition of new voters and the female voters and things like that. On strategic front, resources will create a difference and other sinister things will come in play.
This is electoral map for the 39 ACs
mpelections.com/cmap/party-can…
These are the 31 seats which BJP lost in 2013 and 2018. Candidates for 11 seats are declared. 20 are still awaiting. It will be fun to watch them when they are declared. Much of the BJP's strategy will be decoded if someone wants to decode. That will be the holy grail for the opponent Congress.
