Evolutsia

30/08/2018

What if Georgia has become “European” while no one was looking?

The decennial of the Georgia-Russia war is a potent reminder of the tragic repercussions of that conflict, the seeming intractability of Western-Russia relations, and the uncomfortable limitations of Euro-Atlantic security architecture.

16/02/2018

the onetime Georgian president, former Odesa governor, professional revolutionary, and lifelong rabble rouser is now so minor a figure in global or regional affairs that he barely merits mention at all.

26/01/2018

The newest darling of the international traveller set, Georgia is winning global acclaim with speed and aplomb, earning rave reviews and confident endorsements

12/01/2018

In late November, the U.S. State Department gave its seal of approval for the sale of advanced Javelin anti-tank missiles to Georgia, which has long coveted them. But how Georgia deploys the new weapons—and how that is interpreted by Russia—may do more to determine Georgian secur...

21/11/2017

Countering provocations or pressure by adversary states like Russia should be formulated on Western strengths, and not dictated by the adversary.

31/10/2017

by Michael Cecire With November’s fifth Eastern Partnership (Eap) summit in Brussels looming, the once-ambitious EU platform looks to be taking a back-to-basics approach towards its eastern n…

05/10/2017

A couple of weeks ago, the Georgian military celebrated the 25th anniversary of Georgian military aviation. While a military anniversary party is not usually noteworthy enough for specific mention,…

01/03/2017

NATO burden sharing is primarily a question of willpower, not money, and definitely not spending ratios.

The greater threat to NATO military readiness is willpower, not money.

14/02/2017

A good start for Tbilisi, but not out of the woods yet.

Eager to keep relations with the United States on the front foot, Georgian Foreign Minister Mikheil Janelidze has traveled to Washington to meet with senior American officials as Tbilisi seeks to shor

08/02/2017

Russia's recent wars are more about fortifying its great power bona fides than specific operational outcomes.

"War is the continuation of politics by other means,” observed the Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz in his classic treatise On War. Although the aphorism has become axiomatic almost to the point of cliché, it is an especially apt prism for understanding Russia’s increasingly adventurou...

07/02/2017

Between Pax Americana and a multipolar balance of power, there is chaos.

The murder of Russia’s ambassador to Turkey exposes the withered, snapping moorings of the old US-led unipolar order and an early preview of how an unpolar world might appear.

05/01/2017

The US has become all too predictable, making it easier for our adversaries to probe for weaknesses.

12/12/2016

Expansion—not retrenchment—is the more dynamic and flexible instrument for Euro-Atlantic security.

19/11/2016

A recent spate of reports suggests that Azerbaijan may be on the verge of purchasing Israel’s much-vaunted “Iron Dome” air defense system. The mere persistence of this rumor, whic…

18/11/2016

"What the Odessa gambit revealed about Saakashvili was that, in a competitive, relatively democratic space, Saakashvili’s abilities as an administrator were found to be rather ordinary. Short of reclaiming the autocratic powers he happily exercised in Georgia, Misha’s plans for higher office in Ukraine would almost certainly fare no better at the national level. If he could not make it work in Odessa, why should voters think that he would do better as prime minister, where the complications and competition is only greater, and not less?"

What’s left for Saakashvili? With his options of first resort, such as a triumphant return to Georgia, no longer in the offing, Misha has chosen the last remaining road available to him: Ukrainian national politics.

04/11/2016

AZERİ.TODAY - Самые важные новости Азербайджана и мира

22/10/2016

"Amid partisan bickering and ideological posturing, the parliamentary elections were a victory for constitutional centrism. More than they did for any particular party, Georgian voters checked the box for evenhanded governance and incrementalism rather than massive change."

Georgia can certainly be called a democracy; it is home to a relatively open and competitive political and electoral environment. Yet whether the country’s democracy is a liberal one is less of a settled matter.

14/10/2016

Michael Cecire explains why Georgia did not lead its neighbors into democracy—and why labeling a country such does not make it so.

07/10/2016

"Despite ruinous political clashes and the shadow of Russia lurking in the background, Georgia’s elections look set to be a largely smooth affair and a success story for the wider region."

Despite ruinous political clashes and the shadow of Russia lurking in the background, Georgia’s elections look set to be a largely smooth affair.

05/10/2016

In March 2016, State Security Services Deputy Director Levan Izoria (and now Defense Minister) cited a state report claiming there was “almost no outflow” of Georgian foreign fighters t…

03/10/2016

About a week ago, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian pledged to assist Georgia with modernizing its air defense system. From Georgia Today: Le Drian said France would help Georgia develop a…

23/09/2016

COLCHIS: Turkey’s views on Russia haven’t changed, but its priorities shifted

18/08/2016

U.S. Air Force proposals to mothball America’s premier close air support jet just don’t add up.

28/07/2016

Paata Burchuladze has no political history, but he has popularity.

13/07/2016

"Although Georgia’s membership hopes are largely at the mercy of NATO politicking, Tbilisi hasn’t been active enough in addressing the weaknesses of its candidacy that it can control."

The tenor of NATO’s summit in Warsaw late last week focused overwhelmingly on deterring Russia’s military adventurism. While it was a positive turn for members of the alliance’s eastern flank, longstanding NATO aspirants like Georgia are unlikely to see any relief from…

14/06/2016

"Western parochialism has consequences. Washington and Brussels cannot hope to maintain, much less expand, its relationships in Eastern Europe and Eurasia amid such erratic decision making. Even if Georgia’s visa liberalization is only moderately delayed to September, as some officials have mooted, the damage will already have been done."

Georgia, Kosovo, Turkey, and Ukraine have all largely met the EU’s rigorous technical standards for visa liberalization, but the final stage of getting the go-ahead from the European Commission is no longer the formality it once was.

04/06/2016

Georgia's growing defense industry has made its second export sale, this time to the United Arab Emirates. Georgia's state defense firm, Delta, signed a $32 million agreement to sell "combat modules,"

26/05/2016

"Developing a foreign policy that prioritizes resilience is more important than the tiresome chore of constantly 'proving' Western moorings that ought to be, by this point, self-evident."

Russia is a genuine threat to Georgia, and Tbilisi’s commitment to Euro-Atlantic integration remains robust, but developing a foreign policy that prioritizes resilience is more important than constantly “proving” Western moorings.

30/04/2016

"The recent bout of intense fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan along the so-called line of contact near the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh should be seen not as an isolated flashpoint, but as the culmination of years of escalating tensions. The regional economic downturn and ongoing tensions between Russia and Turkey only add to the conflict’s volatility."

The recent intense fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan near the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh should be seen not as an isolated flashpoint, but as the culmination of years of escalating tensions. The regional economic downturn and antagonism between Russia and Turkey only add to the volati…

22/04/2016

"On technical merit, a country like Georgia has done everything and more that has been asked of it—it is increasingly democratic, fields a capable and oft-praised military, and has been an eager participant in a variety of Euro-Atlantic security initiatives and stabilization missions. And yet Georgia labors on the wrong side of a hardening NATO border that effectively divides Europe into the haves and have-nots, despite Western rhetoric to the contrary. But Tbilisi’s appeals, again, remain wedded to an outdated conception of NATO—more as a post-Soviet civilizational club built on the strength of values, and less on the hard-nosed currency of conventional deterrence and military utility."

“NATO is very obsolete.” So said Donald Trump. While he may have been alone in putting the sentiment so bluntly (Trump will be phenomenal for isola...

03/03/2016

Georgia's government is pushing to get more military recruits from the Pankisi Gorge, a region that has recently been known more for sending Islamist militants to fight in Syria. The Georgian Ministry

03/03/2016

"In the wake of mounting Western and Turkish tensions with Russia, Armenia has been consigned to being a kind of forward operating base for Russia."

Last month, Russia announced a $200 million defense credit for Armenia, days after adding four warplanes to its contingent in the country. In an email interview, Michael Cecire, an associate scholar at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, discussed security ties between Russia and Armenia.

29/02/2016

"A prominent Georgian opposition leader, Aleksi Petriashvili, was shot and wounded on February 26 at a cemetery in central Tbilisi. While he is expected to make a full recovery, the attack is likely to aggravate Georgia’s worsening political divides. At the very least, it will raise questions about the government’s ability to maintain p***c security just months before October parliamentary elections. Petriashvili’s attackers, reported as “well trained,” remain unknown and at large."

The shooting of Aleksi Petriashvili, a former minister, introduces a dangerous new element to Tbilisi's overheated politics.

11/02/2016

Opportunity for Georgian scholars:

"A three-week program will be offered in Georgia in summers 2016 and 2017 for two cohorts of 12-15 faculty/PhD students. These workshops will afford Georgian and Mason scholars the opportunity to participate in a formal research design and methods workshop collaboration. Scholars will work collaboratively to develop research projects and to engage Georgian civil society and government researchers in related policy areas. All Georgian peer partners will receive George Mason University Affiliate Faculty status, providing participants full access to all Mason library and database resources. Participants in the summer workshop will receive a stipend of up to $1000."

The goals of this program, funded by the US Department of State and the US Embassy in Tbilisi, are focused on advancing scholarly research, research design, and research methods, as well as supporting Georgian research that has a practical and policy applications. This collaborative program between…

06/02/2016

You can see the shift in poll numbers and election results.

27/01/2016

"The Georgian government’s decision to try and buy more Russian gas has emerged as a full-blown controversy in Tbilisi, where opponents claim that depending on Gazprom for energy only makes Georgia more vulnerable to Kremlin pressure. The Georgian government, to be sure, has opened itself to criticism by needlessly deflecting legitimate questions over renewed energy ties with Russia. However, Tbilisi’s overtures to Gazprom do not represent a rush into Moscow’s notoriously steely embrace, but rather a commendable willingness to prioritize energy diversification over geopolitical acrimony."

Georgia's ongoing talks to import more Russian gas have emerged as a full-blown controversy in Tbilisi, where opponents claim it would only make…

20/01/2016

"As Russia continues its downward economic spiral, shoved along by cratering energy prices, international sanctions and the weighty burdens of governance by graft, its dependence on the “superpower card” is likely to only increase. That means Moscow may increasingly go abroad in search of new enemies to slay, or at least to appear to do so. This is the inherent problem with Washington’s current policy of strategic patience. US President Barack Obama’s expectation that Russia’s decline will involve going quietly into the night is a major assumption that carries great risk."

Russia is a “pocket superpower”. It does not have the structural mechanisms or resources to effect change like an actual superpower, but has marshalled its capabilities to lend the appearance of being a genuine global player.

06/01/2016

"The addition of rising Russia-Turkey tensions to the competing, crisscrossing allegiances in the Caucasus make for a potentially combustible mix. While both sides have an interest in preventing tensions from escalating into a full-scale conflict that could intermingle or even merge with the nearby conflict in Syria, the Karabakh conflict, already a tinderbox, now has the added dimension of heightened acrimony between Russia and Turkey. "

Russia-Turkey competition is the new normal, and the states of the Caucasus region will be forced to take sides – whether they feel ready or not.