19/11/2022
NEW: Oxford mathematical model predicts route to the men's FIFA World Cup โฝ๏ธ๐
The model - created by Oxford Mathematics researcher Joshua Bull - forecasts:
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ Wales to go out in the group stages
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England to lose in the quarter-final
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina vs Brazil in the semi-final
๐ง๐ท Brazil to beat Belgium in the final
The model simulated the group stages one million times and took the most common outcomes.
The algorithm then simulated each knockout game 100,000 times.
The model has been created by analysing team rating data from http://eloratings.net, focusing on every first-team international game since 2018.
In this video, Joshua explains the model: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjISuZ5o06Q