SOLID INFO

18/04/2024

On April 12, 2024, after a meeting with Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, Donald Trump emphasized that he has no objection to approving aid to Ukraine.

As before, Trump defends the position of the impossibility of providing Ukraine with American funds on a grant basis.

▫️However, from now on, the ex-president of the USA allowed the granting of a loan to Ukraine, the terms of which, however, are still unknown.

But his initiative is a reflection of the debate within the Republicans and has already moved into the practical legislative plane.

On April 15, Speaker Mike Johnson, having chosen the course of strategic segmentation of foreign aid into four separate pieces of legislation, proposed a separate bill on aid to Ukraine.

Johnson's Ukraine initiative is in line with former President Trump's vision and includes continued support for Ukraine through innovative funding mechanisms, such as allowing the use of seized Russian assets and providing
assistance in the form of loans.

The draft law will acquire detailed outlines after its text is made public.

The activation of the Republicans regarding the issue of support for aid to Kyiv demonstrates the ex-president's plans to correct relations between the US and the People's Republic of China, as well as an attempt to immediately solve several systemic problems in internal political competition, which both the Republican Party and Donald Trump faced directly.

Trump's proposal provides for a loan to Ukraine at the expense of seized Russian assets, in particular state and quasi-state assets of Russia - from frozen financial accounts to less liquid assets such as real estate and ships.

Such an approach will position the future Trump administration as aggressively pursuing Russian assets and, in the long run, other members of the authoritarian axis.

Trump's strategy emphasizes a clear message: Russia's role in the world order will be increasingly marginalized, and its assets or income from its assets will be withdrawn in the interests of the borrower - Ukraine.

Trump's announcement is a calculated move on the eve of the election, with which the former president attracts moderate groups of Republicans and limits the ability of Democrats to receive financing for their election campaign in a non-transparent way.

The Republican Party is determined to destroy the alliance between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China.

By declaring the admissibility of the scenario of helping Ukraine by providing it with a loan, Trump is beginning to test the strategy of putting pressure on Russia.

In connection with a tougher diplomatic approach to the PRC in the future, the former US president will raise the stakes.

According to the global plan of Donald Trump, this approach is one of the attempts to form a new foreign policy towards US competitors, which will lead to favorable foreign policy results for the US in the new American political cycle after the presidential elections.

On the other hand, the strategy with regard to Russia, which Donald Trump is testing, is a means of attracting to him the votes of a part of the Republican voters who support a value-based approach to foreign policy, the need to more actively oppose the authoritarian axis in the conditions of the Second Cold War, and support US allies in various parts of the world.

Since the idea of allocating a loan to Ukraine has not yet been properly discussed, and the terms of such lending have not been established, discussions will begin within the party on the specifics of allocating funds to Ukraine.

Despite the need for such clarifications, the absolute majority of Republican congressmen will refuse to criticize aid to Kiev in order to implement as soon as possible a package of funding for Israel, which is necessary to preserve the political influence of both Trump and Johnson in the party and the country in general.

Thus, having voiced the idea of financing the Ukrainian government in the form of loans, Trump is simultaneously building a new strategy for political relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China, as well as protecting the Republican Party from a number of electoral and financial risks on the eve of the presidential elections in the United States.

17/04/2024

On the night of April 13-14, 2024, a direct Iranian attack on Israel took place, which Tehran called Operation True Promise. The attack is Iran's first open and direct attack on Israel, a significant departure from its traditional strategy of waging war through proxy forces.

The real trigger of Iran's attack, namely Israel's attack on Iran's diplomatic establishment in Damascus, which took place on April 1, 2024, and with which Israel pushed the limits of what is permissible in escalation scenarios in the Middle East, went unnoticed by the media community.

With these actions, Israel demonstrated that the next step could be the direct neutralization of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, as the military-political leadership of Israel will not allow a third round of large-scale escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

Iran's decision to launch a direct attack on Israel—a departure from its usual proxy attack strategy—serves several purposes.

The Iranian government is trying to present this to its population and the Islamic world as a demonstration of its willingness and ability to confront Israel directly, which has the effect of mobilizing support among a population weary of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

The Biden administration, aware of the current limitations of the US military potential and the risks of overstretching due to numerous simultaneous global commitments, has identified de-escalation in the Middle East as a strategic direction.

Such a position is due to the need to stabilize the region against the background of the internal problems of the United States, in particular, the upcoming elections and potential internal contradictions.

The detente in the Middle East was a surprise blow to Russia, which seeks to refocus the attention of the international community from the war in Ukraine to the escalation between Israel and Iran. However, this strategy backfires as it becomes apparent that Iran is profiting financially from selling arms to Russia.

This, in turn, changes the position of Israel in relation to the war in Ukraine, and also shows the entire democratic world that a military bloc is being formed between the members of the authoritarian axis, within which countries exchange experience gained in the framework of hostilities and expect the use of such approaches in the perspective is worth it in the theater of military operations against Taiwan.

The current geopolitical dynamic represents a critical moment for the world's major players, especially the US and China, as they balance on the fine line between escalation and negotiation.
In its strategic calculations, the United States is less concerned with the perception of its strength or weakness in specific disputes.

Indeed, stabilizing existing conflicts and preventing the emergence of new ones are strategic imperatives for the United States, especially given the ongoing large-scale military conflict in Eastern Europe.

This focus is driven by the understanding that additional conflicts could further drain US military and diplomatic resources and complicate international relations at a time when the global landscape is already highly volatile.

Such restraint is largely due to the ongoing diplomatic interaction between the US and China, in particular, the recent talks between President Biden and Xi Jinping, which indicates that both states are currently more interested in moving the conflict between them into a more manageable phase.

This dialogue, which includes de-escalation tracks in the Middle East and Ukraine, will allow the US and its democratic allies to take a strategic pause that will allow them to successfully navigate through a period of political turbulence associated with an “election year” in many democracies, as well as to modernize defense sphere and enter a new stage of conflict escalation with autocracies better prepared by 2028.

12/04/2024

On 2 April 2024, Donald Trump visited Wisconsin, where the ex-president once again criticised the US ruling establishment in the context of its decisions on the border issue and supported the Republican candidate for the US Senate, Eric Hovde.

It is predicted that the Democratic Party will lose a significant number of seats in the US Senate in the November 2024 elections.

This year, a number of "swing" states will elect their senators to the 119th US Congress, where Biden and the Democrats have managed to cede their political positions to the Republicans over the four years of his presidency.

The composition of the House of Representatives will also be updated as a result of the elections, and the factor of undecided voters in swing states will work against the Republicans.

Currently, more than a dozen Republicans have been elected to the House of Representatives from districts that are likely to support Biden in the upcoming presidential election.

Opinion polls show that only 5 of the Democratic-controlled districts are likely to vote Republican, while at least 12 currently Republican-controlled districts are likely to switch to Democratic control.

If such electoral indicators remain in place until 5 November 2024, the insignificant Republican advantage in the House of Representatives will be eliminated and the Democratic majority will be restored.

At the same time, the Democratic House of Representatives will balance Trump and the Republicans as they promote their foreign policy ideas.

The Democratic-controlled House will make every effort to maintain the political inertia of the course that was launched under the Biden administration.

The Democrats' commitment to a value-based approach to geopolitics and their emphasis on the importance of maintaining global alliances will not allow Republicans to fully implement Trump's pragmatic "realpolitik" strategy.

In view of this, amid Joe Biden's revitalised election campaign, Donald Trump has two new tasks before November 2024: to consolidate his position as a favourite in the upcoming presidential election and to help his fellow party members seize "swing" and highly competitive states from the Democrats in the fight for Senate seats.

Given that this strategy has been successful for the Republicans, with voters supporting the issues they advocated in the referendum, Trump will continue to use it.

The ex-president will organise his trips to both "swing" states in the context of the presidential election and to states where Republicans are likely to take over the currently Democratic-controlled Senate seats in the November 5 elections.

As Trump seeks scenarios for establishing a dialogue with the autocratic axis states - primarily China and Russia - the Democratic House will force Trump to focus on a values-based approach to foreign policy strategy.

Thus, the involvement of the Democratic Chamber in the US political process will balance Trump's pragmatic approach within the framework of the "realpolitik" strategy and block Trump's attempts to ignore the US political values in exchange for achieving geopolitical success "here and now".

In addition, the United States will maintain its position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, developed during the Biden administration, which is based on the inadmissibility of appeasement with an authoritarian state that systematically ignores international law.

Thus, the loss of the Senate majority by the Democrats will not lead to a complete restructuring of American politics and its value dimension.

Despite the new political establishment's adjustments to the American political course, the inertia of the political narratives formed under Joe Biden will remain even if the Republicans control the White House and the Senate.

This continuity reflects the ingrained momentum of previously articulated political and ethical positions that, despite changes in government, protect the essence of America's values-based approach to domestic and international affairs.

Thus, the elements of the policy framework established under the Biden administration will continue to have a significant impact, ensuring that any adjustments to the American political trajectory are tempered by the enduring principles that have characterised recent policy directions.

11/04/2024

On 1 April 2024, Xi Jinping held suddenly announced talks with newly elected Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on expanding defence and strategic cooperation.

To do so, the Chinese Communist Party broke with tradition by hosting a foreign leader in Beijing before the inauguration scheduled for 20 October.

As the United States builds its security architecture in the region, China feels the need to seize the initiative from the United States and assert its influence over countries that tend to be autocracies, such as Indonesia.

Xi Jinping expects that by offering Prabowo Subinato broad economic and financial proposals in advance, he will be able to cement Indonesia's policy of "neutrality" and thus undermine pro-American unity in ASEAN.

The success of this approach to Indonesia will serve as an example for revitalising ties with other autocracies in the region.

In a broader context, China is waiting for the return of autocratic leaders in the region to form its own anti-American blocs (operating in the North Pacific and Central Asia).

The long history of Indonesian authoritarianism, crystallised by President Suharto (1967-1998), strengthens China's position: he is the author of the Indonesian "non-alignment" doctrine.

Prabowo's pro-Chinese experience may also inspire autocratic groups of influence throughout the Southeast Asian region, which, having lost political control in many of the countries there, are waiting for opportunities for anti-democratic revenge (in Thailand, Vietnam, etc.).

In 2022-2024, the Biden administration made significant progress in developing security relations with the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand, bringing the ASEAN member states closer to the alliance of democracies in an unprecedented way.

However, so far the White House has not been able to overcome the most critical regional obstacle - Indonesia's doctrine of "non-alignment", which is the desire of elites close to President Joko Widodo to simultaneously enjoy the economic and technological privileges of democratic allies and receive preferences from strategic cooperation with the Chinese Communist Party.

During his talks with Xi Jinping, President Prabowo stressed that he would like to develop closer comprehensive relations with China, including military relations.

Xi himself, in turn, stressed that Beijing is seeking to strengthen infrastructure, regional and global cooperation with Indonesia.

This situation is a negative development for the United States, for which the integration of Indonesia and Malaysia into the security network of the Alliance of Democracies is a strategic objective.

The United States and its fundamental allies in the Pacific region (Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines) will have to rethink their approaches to cooperation with the Prabowo administration and prepare for conditions when Indonesia is partially excluded from the system of US defence and economic benefits.

It is expected that extensive talks between the Indonesian and US leaderships will take place after the US presidential election; most likely on the sidelines of the G20 Leadership Summit in Rio de Janeiro.

Maintaining a "neutral" Indonesia will not lead to the collapse of the security network of the Indo-Pacific alliance of democracies, but it will slow down the advancement of the US agenda in ASEAN, harm the campaign to diversify supply chains, and feed Beijing's narrative of the so-called "Global South".

It could also halt ASEAN's evolutionary development along the lines of the European Union and deprive the region of the opportunity to bloodlessly abandon autocratic (far-left and far-right) regimes.

For this reason, the issue of strengthening cooperation with Prabowo Subianto - against the backdrop of his unprecedented, pre-inaugural visit to China - is an urgent one for the White House.

China expects to wait out several electoral cycles in key ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

This strategy is aimed at incubating a pro-Chinese political environment in these countries, as China seeks to secure its strategic interests in the long term, regardless of which political spectrum future leaders come from.

To this end, China seeks to disrupt the US strategy of building a security architecture in the Pacific, to create its own alliances, and to ensure the best conditions for an attack on Taiwan by 2028.

11/04/2024

The US and China are close to an agreement on "competition rules". What has Beijing managed to achieve at this stage of the confrontation?

Read our full analytical article here.

The first conversation between President Biden and Xi Jinping after the APEC summit occurred on April 2, 2024. At that time, the United States and China established shaky "rules of engagement," outlining only general intentions for further negotiations without clear commitments. As a result of the c...

07/04/2024

With the support and funding of Google, the Humboldt submarine route connecting Chile to Australia via French Polynesia was launched in January 2024.

The project is scheduled to be completed in 2026. The cable connection across the Pacific Ocean will increase the coverage, reliability and resilience of communications and the Internet in the region. The US government, through the Office of Cyberspace and Digital Policy (CDP), plans to invest $15 million to create reliable Internet connectivity in Pacific island countries.

In 2023, the United States, with the participation of Japan and Australia, has already allocated $95 million in investments to build a 2,250-kilometre-long submarine cable that will connect island countries in Micronesia. The launch of the Humboldt project will turn Chile into a key communications hub in South America, allowing it to attract investment in digital infrastructure, data centres and the latest technologies.

The proliferation of infrastructure projects, such as the Humboldt submarine cable route, funded jointly by the corporate sector and democratic governments, is a clear indication of the shift from the classical model of globalisation to a patchwork model of globalisation that clearly separates democracies from autocracies.

With the transformation to a patchwork globalisation model, regional alliances are being created in the world with key centres of influence that build further infrastructure within the alliance with access for allied countries.

There is a fundamental transformation of the approach of democratic countries and their corporate sectors to engaging with authoritarian states. Investments in projects such as Humboldt demonstrate that businesses understand that the prospects for reconciliation with autocracies are diminishing.

These developments indicate a shift away from the optimistic integration approach that emerged after the Cold War, when economic interdependence was seen as a path to political and social convergence.

The move towards a patchwork model of globalisation reflects the recognition that the influence of democratic societies on authoritarian ones is weakening. In an integrated world, democratic norms, values and practices could be disseminated quietly through cultural exchange, economic pressure and diplomatic engagement.

The recent sabotage of undersea telecommunications by Yemeni Houthi rebels highlights the critical vulnerability of global communications networks to proxy warfare.

This disruption, which interrupted a quarter of data traffic between Asia and Europe, suggests that as the tensions between autocracies and democracies escalate, proxy groups will increasingly carry out acts of sabotage against the critical infrastructure of democratic countries.

Alternative submarine cable routes, such as the Humboldt project, are a proactive measure to reduce the risks associated with such sabotage.

In partnership with the federal government, Silicon Valley giants Google, Meta and Microsoft have invested $2 billion in cables, accounting for 15% of the global total. These companies also account for 2/3 of the world's bandwidth usage.

The US submarine cable system connects Australia and Chile in South America, Japan and South Korea in Asia, India and the Indo-Pacific and Middle East.

The $95 million, 2,250 km long cable to Guam, a US military base in the Pacific, has turned Guam into a major national security data centre. In 2024, Google announced that it would lay two new cables across Guam - from Guam to Fiji and to French Polynesia. The project involves American business, the US and Australian governments.

China, for its part, is also actively increasing its capacity and laying connectivity routes in Asia and Oceania. In 2015, the Digital Silk Road (DSR) was launched. As of 2020, the Chinese company HMN Technologies (formerly Huawei Marine Networks) has implemented 16 submarine cable projects totalling $1.6 billion in 27 countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

In less than a decade (2012-2020), HMN has laid nearly 70,000 kilometres of submarine cables and signed 100 contracts.
China is modelling itself as a central connectivity hub, facilitating the expansion of Chinese technology corporations, access to large data pools, through MoUs with countries in the Global South and Oceania, and investment in submarine cable infrastructure.

Thus, the growing regional struggle between geopolitical alliances is contributing to the construction of alternative communication networks, critical infrastructure, and trade routes.

The creation of a resilient submarine cable network provides the United States and its allies with an opportunity to increase alliance security, create access to sustainable intercontinental communications and the Internet, promote the latest technologies, and reduce the risk of autocracies using their networks and resources for political blackmail and geopolitical advantage.

04/04/2024

At the end of March 2024 - and three weeks before Prime Minister Fumio Kishida left for "historic" talks with President Biden in Washington - the Japanese government announced a major modernization of the national defense infrastructure and the construction of a network of shelters.

Given the geographical location of the facilities involved in the military modernization, it is obvious that Tokyo is preparing to repel a simultaneous hostile attack from China, Russia, and the DPRK. This decision coincided with Japan's adoption of a record defense budget for the fiscal year 2024-2025: its size reached $56 billion.

The multilevel acceleration of Japanese defense reforms is evidence that Tokyo is preparing to finalize the process of unprecedented expansion of security relations with the United States, initiated by President Biden.

These include the creation of a military alliance between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines; Japan's accession to AUKUS; and the possibility of a new US command in Japan headed by a four-star general, based on the model used in South Korea (USFK).

President Biden's administration is accelerating Japan's status as a fundamental security guarantor in the Indo-Pacific region and its leading ally.

The transformation of Japan's defense and strategic position is the result of profound changes in the worldview of its elite - changes caused by decades of economic stagnation and the evolving dynamics of global power structures.

Since its economic boom in the late 20th century, Japan has faced a paradox of its own making. The rapid growth of the country as a global economic center has inadvertently made it an economic competitor to the United States, which has led to a series of countermeasures by Washington.

These measures, ostensibly aimed at restoring the balance of trade and economic relations, inadvertently contributed to a prolonged economic downturn in Japan.

However, China's increasingly aggressive stance on the world stage has become a catalyst for Japan to reassess and ultimately change its strategic orientation.

The change in Japan's defense doctrine puts China in a strategic quandary, as it underestimated Tokyo's determination and did not expect such a sharp policy shift toward rapid militarization.

The new Japanese military power will work to incubate high-quality technological solutions that will strengthen the technological potential of democratic allies.

Japan's strategic advantage is based on its innovative defense sector. Japanese private companies specializing in the production of industrial and consumer electronics are at the forefront of innovative advanced technologies used in defense.

The stimulus for these technological advances is Japan's special corporate culture, which is characterized by a relentless pursuit of specialization.

Japanese defense companies skillfully identify and exploit niches in which they can become world leaders. Japan's strong manufacturing potential is based on the philosophy of keiretsu, a culture of loyalty and long-term commitment between employees and employers.

The crystallization of Japan's role as a fundamental power in maintaining the security network of the alliance of democracies is clearly taking place in preparation for Prime Minister Kishida's visit to Washington, D.C., expected on April 10, 2024. Due to a number of strategic issues to be resolved during the talks with President Biden, the media are calling this visit "historic."

First, during the Washington talks, Japan and the United States are expected to make the largest security commitments in 60 years in a treaty, with the aim of collective military counteraction to China.

Secondly, the Washington talks between President Biden and Prime Minister Kishida are expected to pave the way for Japan to join the "non-nuclear" part of the AUKUS (Alliance for Innovative Military Technologies) coalition.

Unlike QUAD, which has the potential to turn into an "Asian NATO," AUKUS is a fundamental American mechanism of containment of China, aimed at creating a "closed club" of the most advanced military technologies to gain an advantage in the development of the PLA.

Ultimately, the United States hopes that Tokyo will become a strategic donor of defense technologies for the needs of the Alliance of Democracies, thereby consolidating its status as Washington's leading ally.

In particular, the security agreements expected to be signed on April 10, 2024, should complement the success of China's economic containment and persuade the Communist Party of China to stop supporting regional and global conflicts before the US presidential election.

The latter is clearly evident in the statement of Lee Hee-sup, Secretary General of the Secretariat for Trilateral Cooperation between China, Japan, and South Korea, made on March 28, 2024.
According to him, from now on, Beijing wants to resume the trilateral negotiations suspended by Wang Yi in November 2023 to "resolve crisis issues as soon as possible," including economic and political problems.

China's gesture toward diplomatic engagement after a period of increased assertiveness on the world stage reflects China's recognition of the significant consequences of Japan's dramatic shift in defense policy.

China has realized that Japan's strategic pivot is a direct response to Beijing's aggressive policy, which has forced it to seek ways to stabilize its relations with Tokyo.

03/04/2024

At the end of March 2024, leading U.S. rating agencies published sev-eral positive results of opinion polls for President Biden. In early March, Trump was ahead of Biden by 3-7% in the national rating, according to various polls, but by the end of March, Trump's advantage had dropped to 1-1.5%.

A significant boost in support for the incumbent President occurred after Biden's State of the Union speech, especially reflected in support in key swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, where Biden and Trump are now tied at 45% each, and Wisconsin, where Biden is one point ahead of Trump.

This has forced Trump, who had previously felt more relaxed, to step up his campaign in these states - he is touring Wisconsin and Michigan in early April.

Members of Biden's team say off the record that the President is tired of the fact that all the media are reporting polls showing that he is lagging behind Donald Trump.

Therefore, since the beginning of March, the President has been actively campaigning in an aggressive style that he has not been used to before.

In a marked departure from previous strategies, President Biden began to publicly criticise Trump, using terms such as "mentally ill" and describing him as "weak, confused and tired".

His campaign also referred to Trump as "bankrupt Don", alluding to his involvement in legal disputes and his precarious financial situation. Biden's activism and aggressiveness are intended to break the pattern of negative voter perceptions of the incumbent's age and mental health.

Experts and ordinary citizens have changed their perception of the economic situation in the US: from last year's predictions of an imminent recession, the public expects economic growth and lower inflation.

Biden's highest rating for his professionalism in responding to a possible financial crisis was given by the US Federal Reserve, which expects inflation to decline and the key policy rate to be cut three times during its March meeting.

The White House's efforts to convince voters of the success of the Bidenomics have begun to bear fruit.

A CNBC poll indicates that voters are more optimistic about the economy, up to 37% from 33% in the previous months, driven by lower inflation, strong growth and low unemployment.

The expected economic recovery is a critical element of the Biden team's strategy, which directly translates into voter confidence.
Voters see the administration's effective teamwork, while there are disputes within the Republican camp. In contrast to the Republicans, Democrats of different camps demonstrate unity and adherence to "one voice policy".

The administration's teamwork was clearly demonstrated in the case of the Baltimore bridge collapse on 26 March 2024, when Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg showed themselves as potential future leaders of the Democratic Party, responding promptly and calmly to the disaster.

The case of the Baltimore Bridge demonstrated the correct, timely and high-quality response in the form of clear explanations of the authorities' plans to restore the bridge, expressions of condolences to the families of the victims, in contrast to the failed communication on the Ohio disaster last year, when Democrats were actively criticised by Republicans.

President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party continue to convince voters of the potential consequences of Trump's return to office, focusing on healthcare, abortion, the economy and foreign policy.

Biden's campaign launched a $30 million blitz ad in swing states after his State of the Union address.

This initiative is aimed at a wide range of voters, in contrast to Trump's campaign, which mobilises primarily the nuclear electorate.

Biden's focus on a wide range of voters at this stage allows his campaign to gain sufficient momentum in the medium term.

In fact, the Biden team's strategy of playing into long-term trends has begun to yield tangible results.

The White House's efforts have begun to shift the electoral tide in its favour.

With recent polls showing a narrowing gap between Biden and Trump, the incumbent's strategic focus on "Bidenomics", characterised by lower inflation and steady economic growth, is resonating with voters.

As Biden rolls out his campaign, his message to voters is clear: his administration's policies can guarantee voters continued US economic progress.