Met Monkey

04/05/2024

SUN 05 MAY 2024 - 12:00 until 20:00:
Convective Outlook
LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS

There is a risk of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday.

Cooling aloft, day-time heating and convergence will result in a number of heavy showers developing across Central and Eastern Scotland (most likely across the hills and mountains). Some of these heavy showers could turn thundery with the risk of isolated or well scattered lightning, heavy downpours, hail and gusty winds.

04/05/2024

We will be back offering convective weather forecasts this summer. We hope you're ready for some action!

06/06/2023

There is increasing likelihood of large parts of England & Wales experiencing periods of torrential rainfall & strong thunderstorms on Saturday. Advanced 2-5 day severe weather assessment now has SW Eng., S.Eng., Wales, The Midlands & parts of the SE under 30% likelihood.

“There is increasing likelihood of large parts of England & Wales experiencing periods of torrential rainfall & strong thunderstorms on Saturday. Advanced 2-5 day severe weather assessment now has SW Eng., S.Eng., Wales, The Midlands & parts of the SE under 30% likelihood.”

20/05/2023

With very little 'Swirl' in the forecast over the next week we can expect mainly fine, calm & warm days with cloud coming and going and for some, blue skies and sunshine on tap. UV levels are on the rise, peaking around UV6 between midday-14:00, slap on the suncream & enjoy!

Incidentally, the graphic below shows observed UV numbers for 17th & 18th May, during a period that is wholly representative of the conditions over the next week, and even beyond. UV is quite strong at this time of year and will cont. to increase into June/July.

20/05/2023

The severe weather threat wanes over the next several days and more than likely well into next week. The Azores high pressure cell will be in charge, bringing plenty of dry, settled & at times warm or even very warm weather. Quiet times at MetSwirl HQ.

19/05/2023

Several have formed this afternoon, most of which focused along convergence zones across Wilts., Dorset & Hants., The graphic below shows the situation at 15:00. Storms are currently still underway W. of Salisbury & Dorchester/Weymouth areas as of 16:10.

19/05/2023

Potential for slow moving downpours today that form along converging air corridors. One particular focus point will be further South across Dorset/Hants through the afternoon where slow moving downpours are likely to develop resulting in localised flooding.

29/03/2023

Risk of adverse weather tomorrow, check link below & follow on twitter.

“Hvy. showers with a low risk of iso. lightning possible for much of Eng., S. Wales & large parts of Eire & N Ire. during Thu afternoon. Dev. potent area of low pressure SW/S coastal Eng. evening/overnight focus for torrential rain, iso. lightning, wind gusts >60mph & funnels.”

28/03/2023

Risk of thunderstorms tomorrow has been issued here:

“Broad risk of heavy showers for Ireland tomorrow. Slight risk of marginally severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/Wed. for parts of Ireland/N Ireland with risk of hail, very gusty winds, lightning & low risk of isolated tornadoes. Low risk iso. lightning overnight SW England.”

24/03/2023

Due to greater/faster exposure of information to the public we are moving all our services over to Twitter. If you follow us here, please move across to Twitter & give us a follow. I can be found on Twitter as:

Keith Baker-Biggs
''

Convective information, like the one attached here, valid for today will be posted on Twitter in future posts. We will keep this page open, but it will only be used for extreme weather events every now and then.

I hope to welcome you over on Twitter. Please share this post and spread the word. Thank you to everyone for your continued support of our community. You're all amazing!

28/09/2022

New Met-Monkey weather guidance products covering Convective, Atlantic Storm & Snow & Ice threats for the upcoming 2022-23 season are now being finalised. Here we present the close to final versions. All products shown below are test products and not actual forecast guidance.

27/09/2022

In order to increase effectiveness of the guidance we offer, we will only be issuing severe weather guidance products when the weather falls within a certain criteria. The criteria to be met for severe weather to be highlighted as a potential threat are as follows:

Convective forecasts will only be issued if there is a minimum of a 25% threat of lightning occurring within a 25 mile radius of a location somewhere within the United Kingdom.

Atlantic storm watches will only be issued if there are winds >39mph sustained due to impact mainland UK away from coastal areas or at least winds of 47mph impacting coastal areas (Cat 1) strength. Scenarios where gales >39mph impact coastal areas will not trigger guidance. Coastal gales are not considered severe enough to cause significant impact to a large enough domain of the UK, shipping is advised to take precaution during standard gales, but minimal land impact negates the need for further guidance.

Flood watches will be triggered either by excessive rainfall events i.e. >40mm accumulating during a single event, >30mm within a 3 hour period or due to ongoing heavy rainfall accumulating thus impacting groundwater levels and rivers. Flood warnings will only be issued if there is a high threat of rainfall causing dangerous pluvial and or fluvial flooding based on a single event or multiple accumulative events.

Winter events require the threat of at least a dusting of snow to lower elevations 200m. The relatively low threshold is in place due to negative and quite significant impacts even small amounts of accumulated snow can have on the safety of the general public.

23/09/2022

Whilst the weather is relatively quiet in the UK we spare a thought for those across the pond.

Thoughts & prayers go out to folks in Nova Scotia on the Eastern seaboard of Canada in the next 12-24 hours as Hurricane Fiona transitions into an extremely powerful extra tropical storm & is set to bring hurricane force winds and gusts in excess of 100mph. Currently at midnight here in the UK 7pm EDT in Nova Scotia Fiona is just off the shore with a central pressure ~945hPa. Weather models show Fiona making landfall shortly after midnight EDT or around 5am on Saturday morning UK time & peaking in intensity from 2am EDT into the morning and early afternoon on Saturday.

Fiona is expected to bring extreme weather to many parts of with Halifax eastward worst affected. Widespread power outages, severe flood damage due to storm surge, widespread fallen trees & severe structural damage to buildings & infrastructure.

Stay safe our friends in ✌️🤞👍