Alexander Aesop Geopolitical Analysis

11/01/2025

𝗛𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘅𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗮’𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆: 𝗔 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆

✍🏽Alexander Y. Red Nile

Somalia’s foreign policy appears to be a puzzling exercise in dialectics, reminiscent of the Hegelian and Marxist tradition of thesis, antithesis, and synthesis. At the heart of this contradiction lies the Federal Government of Somalia’s simultaneous engagement in two seemingly irreconcilable diplomatic moves: participation in an anti-Ethiopia trilateral alliance while pursuing high-level talks with Ethiopia itself.

Thesis: Somalia Joins the Anti-Ethiopia Trilateral Alliance

On January 11, 2025, Somalia’s Foreign Minister attended a meeting in Cairo as part of a trilateral alliance comprising Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea. This alliance, formed in response to Ethiopia’s growing ambitions for Red Sea access, was established after Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland in January 2024. The MoU granted Ethiopia access to the sea in exchange for its recognition of Somaliland as an independent state—a move that Somalia staunchly opposes.

The trilateral alliance is widely seen as a direct attempt to counter Ethiopia’s strategic maneuvers. The Cairo meeting focused on fostering closer cooperation among the three nations in economic, security, and political spheres to thwart Ethiopia’s aspirations for regional dominance. This marked Somalia’s alignment with countries opposed to Ethiopia’s growing influence, symbolizing a bold stand against Addis Ababa’s policies.

Antithesis: President Mohamud’s Visit to Addis Ababa

In stark contrast, on the same day, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in Addis Ababa for talks with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This visit, officially described as an effort to "strengthen bilateral relations and advance shared priorities," follows the Ankara Agreement, which diffused recent tensions between the two nations.

The Ankara Agreement, brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, marked a new phase of cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia. It reversed Somalia’s earlier position of excluding Ethiopia from the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and aimed to rebuild trust after months of diplomatic rift triggered by Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland.

Synthesis: A Question Without an Answer

At first glance, these developments suggest a potential synthesis—a balancing of competing interests through strategic maneuvering. However, the coexistence of these contradictory policies has left observers questioning the coherence of Somalia’s foreign policy. On one hand, Somalia appears to be solidifying an alliance against Ethiopia, while on the other, it engages in reconciliatory talks with the same country.

This contradictory diplomacy has created a sense of inconsistency and confusion. Is Somalia seeking to strengthen ties with Ethiopia or undermine its regional ambitions? The lack of clarity suggests that there is no synthesis yet—only a precarious juggling act that risks backfiring on all fronts.

Implications of Conflicting Diplomacy

The simultaneous pursuit of these opposing policies highlights significant challenges in Somalia’s foreign policy strategy:

1. Inconsistency in Alliances: Aligning with Egypt and Eritrea against Ethiopia while engaging in direct talks with Addis Ababa sends mixed signals, undermining Somalia’s credibility on the international stage.

2. Diplomatic Missteps: Participating in the anti-Ethiopia bloc may alienate Ethiopia, a key player in regional stability and Somalia’s security partnerships.

3. Internal and External Perception: The contradictory actions may lead to domestic criticism of the government’s foreign policy, while regional partners may question Somalia’s reliability as an ally.

Ultimate Consequences: A Double-Edged Sword

Rather than yielding a productive synthesis, Somalia’s conflicting diplomacy risks exacerbating tensions with all involved parties. Ethiopia may view Somalia’s participation in the trilateral alliance as an act of bad faith, while Egypt and Eritrea could see Somalia’s talks with Ethiopia as a betrayal. This diplomatic tightrope walk could ultimately undermine Somalia’s strategic goals, leaving it isolated in a volatile region.

In the absence of a coherent synthesis, Somalia’s foreign policy remains a study in contradictions—an exercise in total madness that, if not recalibrated, could prove disastrous for its regional standing and national interests.

#ቀይአባይ
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06/01/2025

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📍ኒዬኮለንያሊዝም
በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦ ከፈረንሳይ የእጅ አዙር ቀኝ አገዛዝ ያልተላቀቁት 14 የአፍሪካ አገራት| #ብርኪናፋሶ፣ #ማሊ፣ #ኒጀር

#ቀይአባይ

05/01/2025

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📍ኢትዮጵያና ፈረንሳይ
በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦ ከምእራብ ወደ ምስራቅ አፍሪካ ፊቷን ያዞረችው ፈረንሳይ | አልሲሲ ከማክሮን የተቀበሉት ቀጭን ትዕዛዝ

#ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ

#ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ

30/12/2024

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📍የሶማሊያ ዥዋዥዌ
በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦ የአንካራው "ስምምነት" ያልተዋጠላቸው አስመራና ካይሮ | ኢትዮጵያ እና ሶማሊላንድ ተስማሙ| የቢቢሲ ሶማሊያ ዘገባ | የቻይና እና አሜሪካ ግብግብ በሶማሊላንድ

#ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ

#ቀይአባይ

23/12/2024

ሶማሊያውያንን ያበሳጨው የኤርዶጋን ንግግር | የኢትዮጵያን የባህር በር ጥያቄ አስመልክቶ #ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ

"ሶማሊያና ኢትዮጵያ ለብዙ አመታት የጥቅም ግጭት ውስጥ ኖረዋል። ኢትዮጵያ ሶማሊያን በብዙ ምትበልጥ ግዙፍ ሀገር ነች ነገር ግን ወደብ አልባ ነች። እንዲህ ያለ ትልቅ ሀገር ወደብ አልባ መሆኗ በእጅጉ ይረብሻል"

"ሶማሊያና ኢትዮጵያ ለብዙ አመታት የጥቅም ግጭት ውስጥ ኖረዋል። ኢትዮጵያ ሶማሊያን በብዙ ምትበልጥ ግዙፍ ሀገር ነች ነገር ግን ወደብ አልባ ነች። እንዲህ ያለ ትልቅ ሀገር ወደብ አልባ መ...

22/12/2024

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📍ጂኦፖለቲካ እና ቀጠናዊ ትስስር
በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦ ቱርክ አፍሪካ በተመለከተ የምትከተለው የውጭ ጉዳይ ፖሊሲ ምን ይመስላል | ኤርዶጋን የአሸማጋይነት ፖሊሲን አጠናክሮ መቀጠል | ኢትዮጵያ ከኡጋንዳ ታንዛኒያ እና አልጄሪያ ጋር ቀጠናዊ ትስስርን አጠናክራ መቀጠሏን
#20 #ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ

#ኢትዮጵያ #ቀይአባይ

14/12/2024

14/12/2024

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📍ላታመልጪኝ አታራሩጪኝ
በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦ የአንካራው ስምምነት ፣ የኢትዮጵያ የባህር በር ጥያቄ ምላሽ አገኘ ፣ የሶማሊላንድ እጣፈንታ፣ ጁባላንድ
#ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ Alex Yohannes Red Nile

#ቀይአባይ #ቀይአባይ

11/12/2024

#አየርሀይል #ኢትዮጵያ

#ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ #አየርሀይል

11/12/2024

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📍ክፍል 1
በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦አየር ሀይል፣ የኢትዮጵያ አየር ሀይል 89ነኛ ዓመት የምስረታ በዓል ቅድመ ታሪክ ከንስረ ተፈሪ እሰከ ፀሐይ
#ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ #አየርሀይል

#ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ #አየርሀይል

02/12/2024

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📍ክፍል 3
በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦ የባህር በር ጉዳይ ፣ እስራኤል ከኢትዮጵያ ጋር ታሪካዊና ፖለቲካዊ ግንኙነት ፣ ኢትዮጵያዊነትን እንደሽፋን የሚጠቀሙት የእስራኤል ወታደሮች

#ቀይአባይ Alex Yohannes Red Nile

#ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ

30/11/2024

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📍ክፍል 2
በዚህ ቪዲዮ ፦ የባህር በር ጉዳይ፣
እስራኤል ከሶማሊላንድ፣ ኤምሬትስ እና ኢትዮጵያ ጋር ያላት የታሪክና ፖለቲካዊ ግንኙነት|

#ቀይአባይ Red Nile Alex Yohannes

#ኢትዮጵያ

28/11/2024

🟦 My take:

✈️𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗜𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗘𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀

✍🏽Alexander Y.

Innovation rooted in history can propel a nation forward, and Ethiopia's recent efforts to recreate and honor its past are shining examples of this. One such remarkable achievement is the innovation of the Tsehay 2, a modern-day reincarnation of the first aircraft ever built in Ethiopia. This endeavor underscores the nation's commitment to honoring its historical achievements while advancing its technological capabilities. The creation of Tsehay 2 is not just a tribute to Ethiopia's past; it demonstrates that the country is firmly on the right track toward shaping its future.

The original Tsehay aircraft, built in 1935, stands as a testament to Ethiopia's early foray into aviation, at a time when most countries had yet to develop such technologies. The Tsehay was the brainchild of a collaborative effort between Herr Ludwig Weber, a German engineer and pilot in the service of Emperor Haile Selassie I, and a group of skilled Ethiopian artisans. This historic endeavor came at a time when the country was still in the early stages of modernization.

Named after Princess Tsehay, the daughter of Emperor Haile Selassie I, the Tsehay aircraft made its first flight in December of 1935. On that momentous day, Weber piloted the aircraft from Addis Ababa, flying for approximately seven minutes and covering a distance of 50 kilometers. The flight, which took place at an altitude of 1000 meters above sea level, was an impressive feat, especially considering the limited resources and space available at the time. The aircraft's construction relied on the ingenuity of local carpenters, working with basic materials and tools.

The Tsehay is the only surviving artifact from Ethiopia's aviation endeavors in the 1930s and the only aircraft built in Ethiopia before World War II. This historical piece represents the pioneering spirit of the Ethiopian people and their early contributions to global aviation. It also speaks to the nation's resilience and ability to innovate, even in challenging circumstances.

Fast forward to today, and Ethiopia is once again making history with the creation of Tsehay 2. As the Ethiopian Air Force celebrates its 89th anniversary, the recreation and innovation of the Tsehay 2 is a spectacular achievement. Built in-house, this modern rendition not only honors the legacy of the original Tsehay but also symbolizes Ethiopia's continuous strides in aviation and technological development. The creation of Tsehay 2 represents a fusion of historical reverence and cutting-edge innovation, proving that Ethiopia’s rich past continues to inspire progress in the present.

The achievement of recreating the Tsehay aircraft highlights the importance of innovation in preserving history. It shows how the country's commitment to its historical landmarks and achievements serves as a foundation for a brighter, more advanced future. As Ethiopia continues to chart its course on the global stage, it is clear that the country is firmly on the right track—where past glory meets future potential, creating an inspiring narrative for generations to come.

Red Nile Alex Yohannes
https://telegra.ph/This-Kind-of-Innovation-Recreating-the-Glorious-Ethiopian-Past-and-Historical-Monuments-11-28

26/11/2024

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📍ክፍል 1
በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦ የባህር በር ጉዳይ | ሶማሊላንድ ለእስራኤል የወታደር ሰፈር | የኤምሬትስ እና እስራኤል ግንኙነት | የቱርክና ኳታር በኢትዮጵያ ባህር በር ጥያቄ ላይ የሚያሰራጩት ፕሮፖጋንዳ

#ቀይአባይ
Afendi Siraaj Alex Yohannes Red Nile

#ቀይአባይ #ኢትዮጵያ

21/11/2024

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📍በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦ የምጣኔ ሀብት ጦርነት | ለዝቦ የነበረው የሀያላኖቹ የንግድ ጦርነት ትራምፕ ወደ ስልጣን መምጣታቸውን ተከትሎ ይባባስ ይሆን?

#ኢትዮጵያስ ሊፈጠር ከሚችለው የኢኮኖሚ መንገራገጭ እራሷን እንዴት ትከላከል?

#ቀይአባይ Red Nile Alex Yohannes Afendi Siraaj

#ኢትዮጵያስ ሊፈጠር ከሚችለው የኢኮኖሚ መንገራገጭ እራሷን እንዴት ትከላከል? #ቀይአባይ

17/11/2024

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በዚህ ቪዲዮ፦ የሶማሊላንድ ምርጫ | በኤርትራው የኢንፎርሜሽን ሚኒስትር የሚመራው ቡድን እና በአንድሪው ኮርይብኮ መካከል የተፈጠረው እሰጣገባ
#ቀይአባይ