19/10/2022
Solar power, electric cars, grid-scale batteries, heat pumps—the world is crossing into a mass-adoption moment for green technologies.
On New Year's Eve, 1879, Thomas Edison flipped the switch on the first building strung up with electric light bulbs. Night turned into day, and the revelers rang in a new age of electricity.
Edison was thinking way beyond bulbs: He planned an entire grid to carry power from coal generators directly into homes. It took another quarter century for electricity to reach the first 5% of US households, but that proved to be a tipping point. By 1950, the entire country was connected. A similar pattern of adoption—gradually, then suddenly, echoed around the world.
Today there’s a new Edison-level transformation under way. It affects how we generate the power that flows to our electrical outlets, and what gets plugged into those zero-emission electrons. Bloomberg Green has identified tipping points for 10 clean-energy technologies, from electric motorcycles to heat pumps and rooftop solar panels. New analysis shows which countries have crossed the threshold and how quickly those markets then expanded.
It all starts with the transition to clean energy, now approaching full speed with 87 countries drawing at least 5% of their electricity from wind and solar. The US hit 5% in 2011 and surged past 20% renewable electricity last year. If the country follows the trend set by others at the leading edge, wind and solar will account for half of US power-generating capacity just 10 years from now. That would be years, or even decades, earlier than major forecasts.
Five percent isn’t a universal tipping point. Some technologies flip sooner, others later, but the basic idea is the same: Once the tough investments in manufacturing have been made and consumer preferences start to shift, the first wave of adoption sets the conditions to go much bigger.
By Tom Randall, Bloomberg Green • 📸 : Energy •
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