SMURF Reports by David Heirdsfield

19/12/2024

Don't forget your Sun Block! 🌞
When the sun finally comes out 🤙

If you want to block out the harmful sun rays this summer, try Sun Zapper 's extreme zinc and sunscreen range. ☀️🌞🌄

18/12/2024

The southerly has well and truly pushed through and is basically pushing all that rain north

Thursday should be fine with strong winds

15/12/2024

Here comes the rain once again QLD! ⛈️😍

A complex trough and multiple low pressure system setup is expected to develop over northern and eastern QLD this week where widespread showers 🌧️, rains areas and slow moving thunderstorms ⛈️ (some likely SEVERE) are expected to develop and persist throughout the week, where some significant rainfall accumulations are likely!

Modelling is still fairly uncertain at the moment regarding what scenarios will likely play out this week however the current consensus is that a trough will develop over or just east of north and central QLD, with a low pressure system 🌀 lingering just offshore of the central QLD coastline (most likely near Mackay) with that low expected to move slowly in a northwesterly direction, remaining just barely offshore in the meantime. A secondary low pressure system 🌀 may also develop either within the Gulf of Carpentaria or just east of Thursday Island during this timeframe, where modelling suggests that it may move down the coast in a generally southerly direction and may impact areas between Thursday island and Ayr generating decent to possibly significant rainfall 🌧️⚠️ as it does.

Modelling is split on whether or not this low will remain offshore, keeping that significant rainfall away 🌧️🚫 from the coastline or whether or not that low will track down along the coastline, drawing those significant rainfall totals 🌧️✅ onshore. I will issue an updated forecast when these details align so stay tuned for that!

General showers 🌧️ and storms ⛈️ are also expected to extend down the entire east coast of QLD between Monday and Friday this week, where isolated SEVERE activity and decent rainfall accumulations are likely. This includes SEQ!

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So what can we expect and where? 🌧️🤔

Widespread showers 🌧️, storms ⛈️ and rain areas are expected to develop this week between Thursday Island and Rockhampton, where widespread falls of 30-60mm are expected. Isolated falls of up to 100mm are possible during this timeframe across the forecast region.

Even higher falls of 100-300mm ⛈️⚠️ are possible both between Bowen and Rockhampton, aswell as across areas along the north tropical coast due to those seperate low pressure systems.

Areas south of Rockhampton to the NSW border can expect patchy showers and storms throughout the week, where isolated SEVERE thunderstorms ⛈️⚠️ containing HEAVY rainfall and DAMAGING winds are possible. Patchy falls of 30-50mm are expected across these areas with further Isolated falls of up to 80mm are possible within the forecast region.
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ℹ️ I’d like to note that some locations across SEQ and NENSW are expected to see more persistent and widespread rainfall compared to surrounding regions throughout the coming days, where patchy to widespread falls of 40-80mm are likely. Some locations may also pick up falls in excess of 100mm as persistent onshore showers and rain bands deliver heavy falls to those areas.

Make sure to follow WEDM for more detailed forecasts like this! 😁
Image via WeatherWatch

14/12/2024

06/12/2024

If the GFS model is right and a category 1 cyclone crosses SEQ on 18 December, how would this affect you?

Mind you EC and CMC models have a similar low in the area

Maybe interesting times ahead

06/12/2024

I'm out west again guys, at Meandarra.
Sorry no SMURF Reports by David Heirdsfield until 18/12/24

30/11/2024

Sunshine Coast Bodyboard Club

01/11/2024

Check this out. 😱 OMG

Place of Thorns tells the story of one of the world’s most incredible waves, Puerto Escondido, from its discovery by early surfers when it was just a small c...

01/11/2024

See y'all at Christmas 🎁

01/11/2024

BOM has updated their thunderstorm forecast for today, in my personal opinion, I think the most risk will be more coastal areas today, mainly rain,hail cores and wind.

Bom:-

⛈️ Thunderstorm FORECAST for TODAY: Severe storms likely in & possible east of Dalby and south of Gladstone. Risk of large to giant hail, damaging to destructive winds & heavy rainfall.

25/10/2024

Saturday at the Sunshine Coast Bodyboard Club