06/11/2024
NOW THAT TRUMP IS SET TO WIN USA 2024 ELECTIONS WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AFRICA AND SMALL ESWATINI?
By Dr Sihle Dlamini
A Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election would likely bring a mixed bag of impacts for Eswatini and Africa, with notable implications for aid, economic ties, and diplomatic dynamics. Unlike previous U.S. administrations that have engaged Africa with an emphasis on development, democracy, and diplomacy, Trump’s foreign policy focuses heavily on American interests, often sidelining regions without immediate strategic value to the United States. Here’s a closer look at what a Trump 2024 win could mean for Eswatini and the broader African continent.
Under Trump’s "America First" policy, we could expect a reduction in American foreign aid to Africa, which could impact critical health, education, and infrastructure projects across the continent. While Eswatini might not be among the largest recipients of U.S. aid, it benefits from programs targeting health crises, particularly through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which supports HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment.
Cuts in programs like PEPFAR would be devastating for Eswatini, which has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in the world. A reduction in U.S. health assistance would strain the country’s healthcare system and hinder its fight against HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and other health challenges. Organisations like FLAS, from among others, stand at risk of reduced funding as Trump's policies clash with their main donor's policies.
For many African countries heavily reliant on U.S. aid, such cuts could exacerbate poverty, poor healthcare access, and education shortfalls. This could destabilize already fragile regions, with potential knock-on effects for Eswatini, which, as a small kingdom, is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in neighboring countries.
Limited Engagement and Diplomacy with Africa
In Trump’s first term, his administration largely overlooked Africa, with diplomatic engagements limited mainly to security cooperation and economic interests. Should he win in 2024, this tendency may continue, affecting Africa’s overall diplomatic ties with the U.S. Trump’s administration may deprioritize African issues within U.S. foreign policy. This means that Eswatini and other African nations would struggle to gain U.S. diplomatic attention for their development needs, political issues, or regional conflicts.
Trump may favor one-on-one deals over regional or multilateral engagement, which could benefit larger African nations with specific assets attractive to the U.S. but leave smaller countries like Eswatini with limited influence. This approach could further sideline countries without significant resources or strategic value to the U.S.
Trump’s previous administration took a transactional approach to diplomacy, often working with authoritarian regimes if they aligned with U.S. interests. A 2024 Trump administration might further diminish American support for democratic movements, human rights, and press freedom across Africa, which could embolden Eswatini’s monarchy and other African governments with limited democratic frameworks.
Trade and Economic Relations: A Pragmatic, Transactional Approach
Trump’s economic policy prioritizes American corporate interests, and his administration is less likely to focus on trade programs that broadly benefit African nations. Programs like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows duty-free access to the U.S. market for eligible African products, may receive less attention or support under Trump.
While AGOA has been beneficial to many African economies, Trump has shown little interest in expanding it, potentially leading to its neglect. Eswatini, which exports goods like sugar and textiles under AGOA, could lose some of its access to the U.S. market if the agreement is not renewed or expanded.
Trump’s administration is likely to emphasize U.S. investments in Africa that serve American corporate interests, particularly in sectors like mining, oil, and gas. This approach may encourage investment in resource-rich African countries, but small, less resource-heavy countries like Eswatini could struggle to attract U.S. interest under a Trump presidency.
Security Cooperation: Limited to Counter-Terrorism
Trump’s foreign policy often prioritizes security in regions where terrorism poses a direct threat to U.S. interests. For Africa, this means continued support for counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel, Somalia, and parts of North Africa but with limited interest in broader stability initiatives. Eswatini, as a relatively stable country without significant terrorist threats, may receive little attention on this front.
Security Partnerships Based on U.S. Interests: U.S. support under Trump would likely focus on countries facing direct security threats from extremist groups, while other nations may struggle to secure American support for broader peace and stability initiatives. Trump’s transactional approach could mean that regional stability efforts or peacekeeping missions in Africa, particularly in Southern Africa, may receive reduced funding and attention. This might affect Eswatini if regional instability—such as in Mozambique or Zimbabwe—spills over, as Trump’s focus will likely be limited to direct American security interests.
The Geopolitical Implications for Africa: A Growing Role for China and Russia
A Trump 2024 presidency’s limited engagement in Africa would leave space for China and Russia to further expand their influence on the continent. Both powers have been investing heavily in Africa, with China focusing on infrastructure and economic development, while Russia targets military partnerships and strategic alliances. Trump’s disinterest could accelerate this shift:
As Trump’s administration reduces its footprint, China is likely to strengthen its economic grip on Africa. China’s extensive infrastructure projects, loans, and trade partnerships already make it a dominant player on the continent. For Eswatini, this could mean an intensified need to reconsider its longstanding support for Taiwan and explore options for more economic alignment with Beijing if U.S. support continues to wane.
Russia has been expanding its influence in Africa by supporting authoritarian regimes and offering military assistance through private security contractors like the Wagner Group. Trump’s disengagement from Africa could provide Russia with an opening to expand its military and strategic reach, particularly in countries with weaker U.S. ties or where the Kremlin can exploit regional conflicts.
As China and Russia grow more influential in Africa, African nations may find themselves in a dependency trap. The influx of Chinese loans and Russian security support could come with political strings attached, making African governments more beholden to these global powers and reducing their policy autonomy.
Implications for Eswatini’s Political Landscape
A Trump presidency could indirectly affect Eswatini’s political dynamics by deprioritizing democracy promotion and human rights advocacy. Trump’s transactional foreign policy stance may embolden Eswatini’s monarchy by removing the pressure often exerted by U.S. administrations on governance issues.
With Trump’s reduced emphasis on democracy and human rights, the Eswatini government may face fewer calls from the U.S. to undertake democratic reforms or protect press freedom. This could strengthen the monarchy’s hold and make it more resistant to local and international calls for political liberalization.
Eswatini’s pro-democracy movements, which have historically looked to international partners for support, might face a challenging environment under a Trump presidency. With U.S. backing reduced, activists and civil society organizations may struggle to gain international attention for their cause, giving the government more latitude to suppress dissent.
For Eswatini and much of Africa, a Trump 2024 presidency would mean navigating a U.S. foreign policy that is far less engaged, more narrowly focused on specific security concerns, and primarily interested in economic opportunities beneficial to American companies. Africa could find itself with limited leverage in the U.S., facing reduced development assistance, a disinterest in human rights, and a stronger focus on economic transactions.
As Washington scales back its involvement, Eswatini and other African nations will likely see China and Russia filling the vacuum, leading to an era of intensified influence by these powers on the continent. For Eswatini, the implications are stark: reduced diplomatic support from the U.S., the need to balance existing ties with Taiwan against the growing influence of Beijing, and a diminished capacity for pro-democracy forces to attract international support.
In this evolving geopolitical landscape, African nations, including Eswatini, will likely need to forge new alliances, strengthen internal resilience, and find ways to assert their autonomy as they navigate an increasingly multipolar world with less reliable support from traditional Western allies.
