The official page for Storm Chaser Nicholas Isabella. I document hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards and more.
I am a storm chaser who documents severe weather across the United States with a focus on the Northeast.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms moved across the region today causing devastating flash flooding to many locations. Here is one of the thunderstorm around 8:45 PM. I'm pretty sure I saw a waterspout earlier too but I will have to enhance my video a bit to confirm my suspicion.
Surfs up! Gusty winds sent waves crashing over the Belt Parkway promenade in Brooklyn today as the remnants of Hurricane passed to our west.
Over the next few days will continue moving north across the Mid Atlantic and eventually the Northeast on Friday. Over the course of several model runs, the track has shifted west and the area of heaviest rainfall accordingly. That doesn't mean the east side of Debby will be without issues. Forecast models have been showing more of a tornado / waterspout threat across the area. I've highlighted the area where I think the focus will be..
Here are the estimated rainfall totals from yesterdays heavy rain event. Models did a pretty good job highlighting the areas that would see the most rain. Northeast New Jersey into parts of NYC had over 6" of rain leading to damage and water rescues.
It is becoming increasingly likely we will see a flash flooding event tomorrow that this area does not experience very often. The exact locations where the heaviest rain will setup has not been determined yet but anyone under those heavy rates can see over 6" of rain. At times this will be 1" - 2" of rain per hour, beginning around the evening commute. If you get an alert for a flash flood warning, please make sure you take it seriously. Just six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot can sweep your vehicle away. I will have a better idea where the heaviest rain will fall throughout the day tomorrow.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings are up for the coast of Florida where Debby will be making landfall in a few days. Models have been trending further west which would give the storm some more time over water to get stronger. This also has greater implications for the entire east coast later in the week with heavy rainfall likely.
A tropical system moving into the Gulf Of Mexico is becoming increasingly likely over the next few days. Regardless of intensity, heavy rainfall is likely. We will have more details through the weekend.
Here is the current outlook for Wednesday. Models continue to struggle with all the moving parts and the exact timing however severe weather is likely. The main threat will be damaging winds but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2% tornado risk across parts of the region.
The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas in the tropics for possible development. Regardless of tropical status, heavy rain is expected along the Gulf with flooding concerns increasing over the next few days.
Lightning earlier as strong thunderstorms moved across New York City.
Here are the number of severe weather days by SPC category each year since 1987 for New York City (Central Park). You may noticed we've had more moderate risk days than enhanced as well as more slight risk days than marginals. That's because the marginal and enhanced categories did not exist before 2015. If they did exist all along, we can *assume* these numbers would look a bit different.
New York City is currently 15.1" below our average snowfall through February 22nd. Still better than last winter, but a far cry from normal. We have another stretch of warm weather coming up but don't sleep on the middle to end of March. Getting a snowstorm around that time is pretty difficult but not impossible.
A nearly stationary band of snow dumped quite a few inches of snow between Eastern Pennsylvania and parts of New York City. There was a very tight gradient on the north and south sides of the band.
Our system late Friday night into Saturday morning is a minor event that moves in and out fairly quickly. With that said, we need to keep an eye on trends the next 24 hours to see if and where heavier banding will setup.
A weak area of low pressure will pass to our south Friday night into Saturday morning bringing some minor accumulations. Won't be a major storm but certainly cold enough for a few inches of snow.
Winter storm watches, warnings and advisories have gone up across our area. Based on model trends, NYC is now forecasted to receive 5" - 8" of snow
You probably heard chatter about a possible snowstorm next week and forecast models are doing their normal windshield wiper effect at this range. Snow seems likely but where exactly is still the big question. Regardless, this storm will kick off the well anticipated pattern change which will bring a few weeks of cold and stormy weather. Here is my thinking on the best chances for accumulating snow.
Real New Yorkers know there are only 3 regions of the state. Who's with me?
My latest thoughts on the end of week storm. More details out tomorrow.
Final thoughts on tomorrows storm. I don't think NYC sees a lot of snow, but we certainly have to monitor radar for any last minute changes. I will likely be heading to New Jersey. I will post the link when I go live tomorrow morning
Initial thoughts on Friday. We have to monitor where the area of heaviest snow (inverted trough) ultimately ends up. I think It will be around Central New Jersey but since we are still a day or two away, that can change. More updates tomorrow.
Yep.
The first accumulating snowstorm of the season has arrived in New York City after almost two years. Here is some video I captured around Times Square.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVXBsQAfIPs
I think it's becoming increasing likely NYC will break the 700+ Day streak and receive at least 1" of snow on Tuesday. There
is still some uncertainty as to the exact amount of snowfall but a rain/snow mix may be possible Tuesday afternoon for
some coastal areas.
Flash flood guidance is very low across our area so it won't take much to cause issues this week. I will have further updates tomorrow, but the entire northeast is at risk for flooding.
My latest thoughts on the weekend snow storm. Based on recent forecast soundings, It's going to be a real nail biter along the coast.
I think we will see a very sharp cutoff between those areas who walk away with a somewhat decent snowfall and those areas that get all rain. I do think New York City will finally break the no snowfall record and get at least an inch of snow out of this. How much more than that is still questionable.
Here are my initial thoughts on this weekend. There are a lot of moving parts and trends need to be watched over the next few days. Anyone putting out maps with snowfall amounts should be ignored. Way too early to declare a final outcome.
Would you go see this movie?
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As Hurricane Ernesto moves across the Atlantic Ocean, New York City officials have taken the precautionary step of closing all beaches to the public. Although the storm is expected to remain offshore, its powerful winds and high surf have created hazardous conditions along the city’s coastline, with deadly rip currents posing a serious threat. The National Weather Service is advising against entering the water as the treacherous currents could prove fatal even for strong swimmers. Despite the warnings, many surfers have taken to the waves at Rockaway Beach, drawn by the rare opportunity to ride the massive swells generated by the distant storm.
It is becoming increasingly likely we will see a flash flooding event tomorrow that this area does not experience very often. The exact locations where the heaviest rain will setup has not been determined yet but anyone under those heavy rates can see over 6" of rain. At times this will be 1" - 2" of rain per hour, beginning around the evening commute. If you get an alert for a flash flood warning, please make sure you take it seriously. Just six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot can sweep your vehicle away. I will have a better idea where the heaviest rain will fall throughout the day tomorrow.
When snow lovers finally see something besides rain on the forecast models.
38 years ago Hurricane Gloria moved up the East Coast. Do you remember?
Tropical Storm Ophelia, while not as powerful as some of the more devastating tropical systems, certainly left an impact on parts of the East Coast. Here is some video I shot around Sea Isle City, New Jersey highlighting severe erosion, rough surf and coastal flooding during the storm on September 23rd 2023. Contact me for licensing.
On Tuesday July 25th 2023, a powerful severe warned thunderstorm raced across New York City creating significant damage for the neighborhood of Bensonhurst in Brooklyn. This damage was associated with a brief Microburst.
New Yorkers when it hits 90° today.
Can't wait to photograph storms like this again in a few weeks.
Every SPC Day 1 outlook of 2022 (Through 12/27). What was your most memorable severe weather event of this year? Let's see your photos and videos.
The rain / snow line with Sundays weak system will be very close to the NYC metro and should be monitored closely. Overall it won't be a big event for anyone however if temps end up a few degrees cooler like the NAM forecast model shows, some people can be in for a nice surprise.
Keeping a close eye on a storm system that may affect our area Sunday into Monday. Exact details still need to be worked out however inland areas look to receive its first accumulating snow of the season. Coastal areas may end as some snow as well depending on temperatures and snowfall intensity.
A cold front will move through tomorrow morning bringing showers and some thunderstorms to the area. There isn't much instability but we might have a few rumbles of thunder and some lightning.
Our next storm system will be Thursday night into Friday. We will start as all snow but quickly transition to a mix of sleet / freezing rain and eventually all rain in the NYC metro. How much snow we get at the beginning will depend on how fast we warm up at the surface and aloft
A large portion of the Northeast is seeing its first snow of the season. Unfortunately the NYC metro will have to wait a little bit longer.
Low pressure developing off the Carolina coast along with the new moon created coastal flooding issues this morning for parts of New York City. This was in Howard beach, a low lying neighborhood in southern queens.
So far the death toll across the northeast is 46 after several tornadoes and catastrophic flash flooding crippled areas between Philadelphia and New York City Wednesday evening. In my video you'll see rainfall rates at 3" - 4" inches per hour as well as a quick look at the EF3 tornado crossing the road in southern New Jersey. We returned to New Jersey Friday to check out some of the damage as well.
We've had wildfire smoke in the atmosphere above NYC in the past but today is by far the thickest, and closest to the surface it has been.
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I am a nationwide Storm Chaser and Photographer. Follow this page for storm chasing media as well as upcoming forecast discussions for our area.
