The intense storm will continue across parts of California through Thursday night. The main atmospheric river moisture plume will be impacting Southern California this afternoon and evening. Showers can be seen near the center of the low pressure system as it comes ashore over Northern California.
Rainfall amounts around the North Bay are generally 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with up to 4.5 inches in the wettest areas of the coastal hills.
Along the Central Coast south of Big Sur, 4-8 inches of rain has already fallen in the coastal ranges in the past 24 hours.
High pressure in the Eastern Pacific will block all storms headed toward California over the next two weeks according to the latest concensus of forecast models.
That means the North Bay may not experience measurable rainfall again until the 2nd week of February, if then.
Shown below is the 15 day European deterministic model forecast, issued Sunday January 19th.
More updates to come.
The latest high resolution forecasts show the North Bay picking up about 1 1/2 to 3 inches of additional rain by Sunday. The heaviest rain will come late Friday night through Saturday morning.
Totals could appoach 5 inches in the coastal hills, places like Cazadero, Venado and Occidental. A bit more rain will arrive Monday before clearing and slightly warmer conditions arrive for the rest of the week.
Atmospheric River Inbound to North Bay Early Wednesday
An impactful Atmospheric River storm system is coming to the North Bay this week. Karl Van Amburg has details.
A deep low pressure center off the NorCal coast is bringing showers and heavy thundershowers to the northern Sacramento Valley Saturday afternoon.
A few showers have been reported today as far south as Mendocino and Sonoma Counties, but the rest of this action should stay far north of the North Bay region.
The storms will be concentrated over Oregon tonight.
Park Fire Tuesday August 6th
The Park Fire is now approaching Mt. Lassen National Park from the southwest. This is a view from the south looking north toward the fire at 3PM Tuesday.
The fire underwent a rapid blowup on Monday and Tuesday as temperatures once again soared across Northern California and humidity dropped. The most active area of the fire is on its northeastern edge, burning upslope toward the western park boundary and the town of Mineral.
Little relief in the weather is expected until around Thursday when a cooling trend and better overnight humidity recoveries arrive.
The fire was listed at 414K acres and 34% contained early Tuesday. Cal Fire says 6500 firefighters and 40 helicopters along with numerous fixed wing aircraft have been assigned to the blaze.
Link to Alert Fire Camera. https://cameras.alertcalifornia.org/?pos=40.1227_-121.6228_10&id=Axis-ColbyMtn2
High pressure will build into California from the desert Southwest through Wednesday. This will shut down the marine breeze and bring a brief heat-up to the North Bay.
The warmest day should be Tuesday with widespread 90s across the region.
The forecast loop runs from Monday to Thursday, showing high pressure building in, then contracting back out of California.
A cooling trend will once again kick off on Wednesday, with normal August temperatures in the 80s returning and lasting through the upcoming weekend.
Convective activity associated with moisture surging into California continued to support thunderstorms and lightning over the Sierra and parts of Nevada and Utah Saturday night.
Most this action will stay east of our region through Sunday AM. There is a slight chance of a few showers over the hills of the North Bay Sunday morning (5-9am) but thundershowers and lightning are not expected.
Further to our north, a Red Flag Warning is in effect on Sunday for the mountains of Eastern Mendocino and Northern Lake Counties due to the chance of thunderstorms there.
Thunderstorms could be seen Saturday morning near Santa Barbara and in the Southern Sierra.
That activity is expected to stay to the east of the Bay Area and North Bay today. There is a slight chance of a few showers across the North Bay early Sunday morning
(5-9AM) when atmospheric dynamics and moisture peak across the area. Any thundershowers, if they do occur (10% chance), would be scattered and limited to the hills.
North of us a new Red Flag Warning has been issued by the NWS for northern Lake and eastern Mendocino counties (mountainous areas) from 2am to 9pm Sunday due to the chance of thunderstorms with dry lightning in that region.
As it shifts east, high pressure is briefly strengthening over California and compressing the marine layer. You can see this off the Sonoma and Mendocino coasts.
This will cause afternoon temperatures to surge back up over 100 degrees in the hottest inland areas (90-105) through Friday. The immediate coast will stay in the 60s and 70s. Cooling kicks back in across all areas on Saturday.
Big Heat, Fire Weather Arrive Across North Bay
A long-lasting and severe heat event will bring heightened fire danger across the North Bay.
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